<p>這是 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVIDIA 4.55%）的世界，投資者只是生活在其中。至少，在 2023 年和 2024 年是這樣的。作為芯片製造商和領先的人工智能（AI）計算基礎設施提供商，英偉達現在的市值超過了 3 萬億美元，成為全球第三大公司。在過去五年中上漲了近 3000%，現在是有史以來表現最好的股票之一，使得長期股東們財富累累。</p>
<p>我預測這波瘋狂的增長即將結束。不，這與公司即將在 8 月 28 日發佈的財報無關。但與可能影響英偉達長期定價權的競爭格局有關。以下是我認為英偉達瘋狂的股價漲幅將在未來幾年內結束的原因。</p>
<h2>雲垂直整合</h2>
<p>在過去五年中，英偉達的營業收入增長了 2000%，達到 480 億美元。這種增長是因為英偉達芯片是新的人工智能工具在科技行業中的首選計算工具。作為這些首選芯片的唯一規模化供應商，並且在技術上領先於 <strong>英特爾</strong> 等競爭對手，英偉達的收入和利潤率激增，因為它以高昂的價格出售這些稀缺資源。</p>
<p>其三大客户分別是 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>（谷歌）和 <strong>微軟</strong>。這三家大型雲計算提供商是新的人工智能算法和軟件的基礎設施支柱。綜合來看，這三家可能每年在英偉達芯片上花費超過 100 億美元，甚至可能達到 200 億美元。現在，看起來英偉達已經激怒了雲計算領域的蜂巢。</p>
<p>在華爾街關注不足的情況下，這些雲服務提供商宣佈了鉅額投資，以生產自己的人工智能芯片。例如，亞馬遜現在正在生產自己的芯片，名為 Inferentia 和 Trainium，直接與英偉達競爭。這些產品目前在計算能力上落後於英偉達，但由於在英偉達芯片上花費了如此多的資金，亞馬遜有理由投入數十億美元用於研發，試圖改進這些產品。</p>
<p>谷歌擁有自己的張量處理單元（TPU），微軟宣佈了對內部芯片開發的投資。它們可能需要多年才能擴大規模，但供應量只會增加，為英偉達帶來更多競爭，而不是減少。更糟糕的是，競爭來自英偉達自己的客户。</p>
<h2>競爭消除定價權</h2>
<p>英偉達過去兩年股價上漲的關鍵是營運利潤率的擴張。從低點約 15% 開始，英偉達的營運利潤率在過去 12 個月內約為 60%。這實際上對英偉達的盈利增長做出了更大貢獻。在過去三年中，營業收入增長了 228%，而營運利潤率從低點上漲了近 4 倍。</p>
<p>英偉達之所以能夠擁有荒謬的利潤率，是因為目前面臨的人工智能計算芯片競爭很少。這導致定價權，加速了營收增長並擴大了利潤率——這對股票是一系列美好的催化劑。然而，如果競爭加劇，這種情況可能會發生逆轉，而這正是三家最大的雲服務提供商正在發生的。如果它們繼續用自己的品牌替換越來越多的英偉達芯片，英偉達的營收和盈利增長將受到影響。</p>
<p>需要明確的是，這種競爭的時間表不是在 2024 年。亞馬遜、微軟和谷歌可能需要多年時間才能在英偉達的人工智能芯片業務中佔據一席之地。但由於英偉達對它們實施的價格上漲，這三家大型雲服務提供商有巨大的動力這樣做。這三家大型雲服務提供商都有足夠的現金用於推動這些部門擴大規模。而且他們正在努力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b8adee85c8b7e1cfbf96522be2776e35.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b8adee85c8b7e1cfbf96522be2776e35.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>英偉達股票的風險</h2>
<p>英偉達股票目前具有瘋狂的勢頭。這是因為盈利和營收正以瘋狂的速度增長。來自競爭對手的人工智能芯片供應增加——無論是來自亞馬遜還是其他任何公司——可能會成為英偉達財務狀況的雙重打擊。</p>
<p>競爭加劇意味着雲服務提供商和其他人工智能芯片購買者可以購買更多芯片。供需法則規定，如果供應增加而需求保持不變，價格將下降。這將導致營收放緩和利潤率下降，這兩者都會對英偉達的盈利能力產生負面影響。</p>
<p>目前，英偉達的市盈率（P/E）為 73，幾乎是 <strong>標普 500</strong> 指數平均水平的三倍。而且這是基於具有高達 60% 利潤率的滯後盈利。如果定價權下降，將影響營收和利潤率。從數字的角度來看，這意味着即使英偉達在未來幾年內銷售更多的計算機芯片，利潤實際上可能會大幅下降。</p>
<p>盈利下降的股票不會以 73 倍市盈率交易。而且不要忘記，如果利潤率下降到 “僅” 40%，與其當前的 3 萬億美元市值相比，這一市盈率將超過 100。這使得英偉達股票存在極高的風險，這就是為什麼我預測其瘋狂的股價上漲即將結束。它仍然是一家優質企業，但目前不值得以 3 萬億美元的市值交易。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達（NVIDIA）由於在人工智能計算領域的主導地位，股價大幅上漲，五年來漲幅近 3000%。然而，預測表明，由於亞馬遜、谷歌和微軟等主要雲服務提供商加大對自家人工智能芯片的投資，這種增長可能很快就會結束。隨着這些公司推出替代產品，英偉達的定價能力和利潤率可能會下降，嚴重影響其收入增長。目前，英偉達的股價交易於高達 73 的市盈率，表明在供應增加、對其芯片需求減少的情況下存在潛在風險</p>

<p>It's <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA 4.55%) world, investors are just living in it. At least, that's what it has felt like in 2023 and 2024. The chipmaker and leading provider of artificial intelligence (AI) computing infrastructure now has a market cap topping $3 trillion, making it the third-largest company in the world. Up close to 3,000% in the last five years, it is now one of the best performing stocks ever, making longtime shareholders incredibly wealthy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVIDIA 4.55%）的世界，投資者只是生活在其中。至少，在 2023 年和 2024 年是這樣的。作為芯片製造商和領先的人工智能（AI）計算基礎設施提供商，英偉達現在的市值超過了 3 萬億美元，成為全球第三大公司。在過去五年中上漲了近 3000%，現在是有史以來表現最好的股票之一，使得長期股東們財富累累。</p>
</div><p>I predict this monster run is close to over. No, it has nothing to do with the company's upcoming earnings release on Aug. 28. But it does have to do with a widening competitive set that could impact Nvidia's pricing power over the long term. Here's why I think Nvidia's monster stock gains are set to end within the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我預測這波瘋狂的增長即將結束。不，這與公司即將在 8 月 28 日發佈的財報無關。但與可能影響英偉達長期定價權的競爭格局有關。以下是我認為英偉達瘋狂的股價漲幅將在未來幾年內結束的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Cloud vertical integration</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>雲垂直整合</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia's operating income is up more than 2,000% in the last five years to $48 billion. This growth has come because Nvidia chips are the premier computing vehicle for new AI tools taking over the technology sector. As the only scaled supplier of these premier chips and with a technological lead over competitors such as <strong>Intel</strong>, Nvidia has seen a surge in revenue and profit margins as it sells these scarce resources at sky-high prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去五年中，英偉達的營業收入增長了 2000%，達到 480 億美元。這種增長是因為英偉達芯片是新的人工智能工具在科技行業中的首選計算工具。作為這些首選芯片的唯一規模化供應商，並且在技術上領先於 <strong>英特爾</strong> 等競爭對手，英偉達的收入和利潤率激增，因為它以高昂的價格出售這些稀缺資源。</p>
</div><p>Three of its largest customers are <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong> (Google), and <strong>Microsoft</strong>. These are the three big cloud-computing providers that are the infrastructure backbone for new AI algorithms and software. Combined, these three are likely spending over $10 billion a year, perhaps $20 billion, on Nvidia chips. Now, it looks like Nvidia has angered the cloud hornets nest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其三大客户分別是 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>（谷歌）和 <strong>微軟</strong>。這三家大型雲計算提供商是新的人工智能算法和軟件的基礎設施支柱。綜合來看，這三家可能每年在英偉達芯片上花費超過 100 億美元，甚至可能達到 200 億美元。現在，看起來英偉達已經激怒了雲計算領域的蜂巢。</p>
</div><p>In a move that is being underfollowed by Wall Street, these cloud providers have announced huge investments to make their own AI chips. For example, Amazon is now making its own chips called Inferentia and Trainium that directly compete with Nvidia. The products are behind Nvidia right now in computing capabilities, but with so much money spent on Nvidia chips, it makes sense for Amazon to pour billions of dollars into research and development to try and improve these offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在華爾街關注不足的情況下，這些雲服務提供商宣佈了鉅額投資，以生產自己的人工智能芯片。例如，亞馬遜現在正在生產自己的芯片，名為 Inferentia 和 Trainium，直接與英偉達競爭。這些產品目前在計算能力上落後於英偉達，但由於在英偉達芯片上花費了如此多的資金，亞馬遜有理由投入數十億美元用於研發，試圖改進這些產品。</p>
</div><p>Google has its own tensor processing units (TPUs), and Microsoft has announced its investments into internal chip development. They may take years to scale, but supply is only going to go up and create more competition for Nvidia, not less. Even worse, the competition is coming from Nvidia's own customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌擁有自己的張量處理單元（TPU），微軟宣佈了對內部芯片開發的投資。它們可能需要多年才能擴大規模，但供應量只會增加，為英偉達帶來更多競爭，而不是減少。更糟糕的是，競爭來自英偉達自己的客户。</p>
</div><h2>Competition eliminates pricing power</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>競爭消除定價權</h2>
</div><p>A key for Nvidia's stock gains in the past two years has been operating-margin expansion. From a low at close to 15%, Nvidia's operating margin was around 60% over the past 12 months. This has actually contributed more to Nvidia's earnings growth than revenue. Revenue is up 228% in the last three years, while operating margin is up close to 4 times off of its lows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達過去兩年股價上漲的關鍵是營運利潤率的擴張。從低點約 15% 開始，英偉達的營運利潤率在過去 12 個月內約為 60%。這實際上對英偉達的盈利增長做出了更大貢獻。在過去三年中，營業收入增長了 228%，而營運利潤率從低點上漲了近 4 倍。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is able to have absurd profit margins because of the minimal current competition it faces for AI computer chips. This leads to pricing power, which accelerates revenue growth and expands margins -- a wonderful set of catalysts for a stock. However, this can reverse if competition increases, which is happening with the three largest cloud providers. If they keep replacing more and more of their Nvidia chips with their own brands, Nvidia's revenue and earnings growth will be impacted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達之所以能夠擁有荒謬的利潤率，是因為目前面臨的人工智能計算芯片競爭很少。這導致定價權，加速了營收增長並擴大了利潤率——這對股票是一系列美好的催化劑。然而，如果競爭加劇，這種情況可能會發生逆轉，而這正是三家最大的雲服務提供商正在發生的。如果它們繼續用自己的品牌替換越來越多的英偉達芯片，英偉達的營收和盈利增長將受到影響。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, the timeline on this competition is not in 2024. It may take multiple years for Amazon, Microsoft, and Google to make a dent in Nvidia's AI chip business. But the companies have a huge incentive to do so because of the price hikes Nvidia has implemented on them. All three of the big cloud providers have plenty of cash to spend in order to get these divisions to scale. And they are working on them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明確的是，這種競爭的時間表不是在 2024 年。亞馬遜、微軟和谷歌可能需要多年時間才能在英偉達的人工智能芯片業務中佔據一席之地。但由於英偉達對它們實施的價格上漲，這三家大型雲服務提供商有巨大的動力這樣做。這三家大型雲服務提供商都有足夠的現金用於推動這些部門擴大規模。而且他們正在努力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b8adee85c8b7e1cfbf96522be2776e35.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b8adee85c8b7e1cfbf96522be2776e35.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Risks for Nvidia stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達股票的風險</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia stock has insane momentum right now. That is because earnings and revenue are growing at an insane rate. A growing supply of AI chips from competitors -- whether Amazon or anyone else -- could be a double-whammy headwind for Nvidia's financials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達股票目前具有瘋狂的勢頭。這是因為盈利和營收正以瘋狂的速度增長。來自競爭對手的人工智能芯片供應增加——無論是來自亞馬遜還是其他任何公司——可能會成為英偉達財務狀況的雙重打擊。</p>
</div><p>Growing competition means increasing the supply of chips that cloud providers and other AI chip purchasers can buy. The simple law of supply and demand dictates that prices will come down if supply increases but demand remains the same. This would lead to a revenue slowdown and a margin decrease, which both negatively affect Nvidia's earnings power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>競爭加劇意味着雲服務提供商和其他人工智能芯片購買者可以購買更多芯片。供需法則規定，如果供應增加而需求保持不變，價格將下降。這將導致營收放緩和利潤率下降，這兩者都會對英偉達的盈利能力產生負面影響。</p>
</div><p>Today, Nvidia trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 73, which is close to triple the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index average. And this is based on trailing earnings with sky-high 60% profit margins. If pricing power comes down, it will impact revenue <em>and</em> profit margins. From a numbers basis, this means even if Nvidia sells more computer chips in the coming years, profits could actually be significantly lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，英偉達的市盈率（P/E）為 73，幾乎是 <strong>標普 500</strong> 指數平均水平的三倍。而且這是基於具有高達 60% 利潤率的滯後盈利。如果定價權下降，將影響營收和利潤率。從數字的角度來看，這意味着即使英偉達在未來幾年內銷售更多的計算機芯片，利潤實際上可能會大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>Stocks with declining earnings don't trade at a P/E of 73. And don't forget that this P/E would climb to more than 100 compared to its current market cap of $3 trillion if profit margins decline to &#34;just&#34; 40%. This makes Nvidia stock incredibly risky, which is why I predict its monster stock run is coming to a close. It is still a quality business but not one that deserves to trade at a market cap of $3 trillion right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利下降的股票不會以 73 倍市盈率交易。而且不要忘記，如果利潤率下降到 “僅” 40%，與其當前的 3 萬億美元市值相比，這一市盈率將超過 100。這使得英偉達股票存在極高的風險，這就是為什麼我預測其瘋狂的股價上漲即將結束。它仍然是一家優質企業，但目前不值得以 3 萬億美元的市值交易。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Is What Will Finally End Nvidia's Monster Stock Gains

- Nvidia 是世界的主宰，投資者只是生活在其中。
- 其市值超過 3 萬億美元，成為全球第三大公司。
- 隨着競爭加劇，Nvidia 的股價漲幅即將結束。

預測：這將最終終結英偉達的鉅額股票漲幅