<p>在競爭激烈的商業世界中，即使是效率的微小提升也可以推動一家公司在競爭對手中取得成功。人工智能（AI）和機器人流程自動化（RPA）可以幫助實現這些提升，使它們成為提高生產力的不可思議工具。</p>
<p>例如，一家大型金融和房屋貸款公司將由 <strong>UiPath</strong>（PATH -2.18%）提供的 RPA 整合到其工作流程中，並表示這些變化每年節省了 1 萬個人時。這些機器人使用事先準備的軟件執行功能，這些功能以前是手動完成的。也許最好的部分是，這些 RPA 服務幾乎 100% 準確，並且全天候工作。</p>
<p>對客户公司的盈利能力和增長潛力是巨大的。它可以用更少的員工完成更多工作，更準確，而機器人工具使這些員工能夠從事高級、使命關鍵的任務，而不是重複的低級任務。像這樣的例子展示了為什麼 UiPath 作為一家公司具有潛力。</p>
<h2>UiPath 一開始表現強勁，但像許多科技股一樣在 2022 年受到打擊</h2>
<p>當 UiPath 在 2021 年初上市並在當時的市場繁榮中成為一家高飛的科技股時，其潛力顯而易見。然而，隨着 2021 年的進展，利率上升的威脅對許多高飛的科技股產生了影響，華爾街開始對這家業務自動化軟件開發商感到失望。該股票從 52 周高點下跌約 52%，從歷史高點下跌約 82%。</p>
<p>在這種升息的經濟環境中，公司面臨着嚴峻挑戰，包括增加競爭、難以擴大客户羣和管理變化。對於考慮購買 UiPath 股票的投資者來説，其估值更加合理，除了挑戰之外還有一些積極因素需要考慮。尋找價格合理的復甦公司進行投資可能是提高長期收益的絕佳方式。以下是我認為 UiPath 可能是其中之一的復甦故事的原因。</p>
<h2>為什麼 UiPath 的股價在 2024 年下跌？</h2>
<p>UiPath 的股價在 2023 年大部分時間和 2024 年一直處於緩慢復甦模式。然而，在 5 月底發佈最新財報後，股價大幅下跌。管理層將全年年度重複收入（ARR）指導從 17.3 億美元降至 16.6 億美元。4% 的指導削減可能看起來不重要，但對於增長型科技公司來説任何指導削減都很重要（公司往往會為容易達到的目標制定指導，以便超額完成）。更令人擔憂的是，管理層將全年營收指導從 15.6 億美元降至 14.1 億美元。淨基於美元的留存率為 118%（現有客户的支出比前一年增加了 18%），降級的營收目標表明公司失去了客户。</p>
<p>股價下跌的另一個原因是首席執行官羅布·恩斯林（Rob Enslin）突然辭職的消息。儘管恩斯林擔任首席執行官的時間很短暫（自 2022 年以來一直擔任聯席首席執行官，與公司創始人丹尼爾·迪內斯（Daniel Dines）一起），但他沒有長時間任職對一些投資者來説是一個紅旗。迪內斯重新擔任首席執行官一職，這應該有助於穩定局勢，同時管理層考慮其下一步。創始人的迴歸有時也可以因其對業務的激情和內部知識而使公司煥發活力。因此，這可能會成為一個積極的發展。</p>
<h2>正現金流、強勁資產負債表和巨大市場</h2>
<p>UiPath 顯然正在努力應對一些挑戰。但也存在機會。</p>
<p>如上所述，創始人的迴歸可能會帶動 UiPath。在恩斯林的領導下，該業務並未蓬勃發展，因此新（舊？）領導層提供了變革的機會。迪內斯對 UiPath 的成功有着個人利益，並且有很多可以利用的資源。</p>
<p>雖然 UiPath 的營收增長有所放緩，但並未完全停滯。上季度，ARR 同比增長了 21%，銷售增長了 16%。UiPath 的現金流也是正的，過去四個報告季度的利潤率為 24%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/256a0ae59e9ad23144778034ab5c7012.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/256a0ae59e9ad23144778034ab5c7012.png"/></p>
<p>PATH 營收（TTM）數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>此外，儘管存在一些客户流失，但也有亮點。上季度提供超過 10 萬美元和 100 萬美元年銷售額的大客户數量再次增加。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgyNDYvdWlwYXRoLWxhcmdlLWN1c3RvbWVycy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgyNDYvdWlwYXRoLWxhcmdlLWN1c3RvbWVycy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>來源：UiPath。</p>
<p>迪內斯接手的公司財務狀況良好。UiPath 賬面上擁有近 20 億美元的現金和投資，沒有長期債務，僅有 5.98 億美元的流動負債，而流動資產為 25 億美元。這樣的資產負債表將使公司能夠資助增長、研發和戰略收購。</p>
<p>Statista 預測，RPA 市場將以每年 37% 的複合增長率增長，從 2022 年的 37 億美元增長到 2032 年的 800 億美元以上。即使佔據這一市場的一小部分，對於 UiPath 這樣的小公司來説也將是巨大的。</p>
<h2>現在是購買 UiPath 股票的時機嗎？</h2>
<p>股票的估值約為銷售額的 5.2 倍，反映了 UiPath 面臨的巨大挑戰。這個價格銷售（P/S）比率不到其最近平均水平的三分之二，低於同行。例如，<strong>Gitlab</strong> 和 <strong>CommVault Systems</strong> 的估值要高得多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61d61b8c5a2dfcd9f12b1260450bbfd0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61d61b8c5a2dfcd9f12b1260450bbfd0.png"/></p>
<p>PATH PS 比率數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>這些軟件公司從事不同的業務，但它們都是增長型科技公司，市值在 65 億美元至 75 億美元之間，毛利率超過 80%。它們的相似之處使它們的估值具有相關性。</p>
<p>UiPath 的成功並不是鐵定的。然而，市場似乎已經定價了該公司面臨的所有挑戰，卻沒有考慮到任何機會。儘管將投資組合中的大部分資金投入 UiPath 可能不明智，但其復甦機會使其成為長期投資者的投機購買，他們不介意承擔一些風險。</p>

PATH

<p>UiPath 在高利率環境下面臨挑戰，導致股價大幅下跌，距離 52 周高點下跌了 52%。儘管降低了收入指引並且首席執行官 Rob Enslin 突然辭職，但創始人 Daniel Dines 的迴歸可能會振興公司。UiPath 保持着正面的現金流，強勁的利潤率，以及沒有債務的穩健資產負債表。隨着 RPA 市場預計每年增長 37%，儘管最近遭遇挫折，但仍有復甦的潛力。
![]</p>

<p>In the competitive business world, even small increases in efficiency can propel a company to success over its rivals. Artificial intelligence (AI) and robotic process automation (RPA) can help create those increases, making them incredible tools for productivity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在競爭激烈的商業世界中，即使是效率的微小提升也可以推動一家公司在競爭對手中取得成功。人工智能（AI）和機器人流程自動化（RPA）可以幫助實現這些提升，使它們成為提高生產力的不可思議工具。</p>
</div><p>One large financial and home loan company, for instance, integrated RPA provided by <strong>UiPath</strong>(PATH -2.18%) into its workflow and said the changes saved it 10,000 man-hours annually. These robots perform functions using off-the-shelf software that was previously done manually. Perhaps the best part is that these RPA services are nearly 100% accurate and work 24 hours a day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，一家大型金融和房屋貸款公司將由 <strong>UiPath</strong>（PATH -2.18%）提供的 RPA 整合到其工作流程中，並表示這些變化每年節省了 1 萬個人時。這些機器人使用事先準備的軟件執行功能，這些功能以前是手動完成的。也許最好的部分是，這些 RPA 服務幾乎 100% 準確，並且全天候工作。</p>
</div><p>The profitability and growth implications for the client company are massive. It gets more done with fewer employees, more accurately, and the robot tools allow those employees to work on high-level, mission-critical tasks rather than repetitive, lower-level ones. Examples like this show why UiPath has potential as a company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對客户公司的盈利能力和增長潛力是巨大的。它可以用更少的員工完成更多工作，更準確，而機器人工具使這些員工能夠從事高級、使命關鍵的任務，而不是重複的低級任務。像這樣的例子展示了為什麼 UiPath 作為一家公司具有潛力。</p>
</div><h2>UiPath started strong but took a hit like many tech stocks did in 2022</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>UiPath 一開始表現強勁，但像許多科技股一樣在 2022 年受到打擊</h2>
</div><p>That potential was evident when UiPath went public in early 2021 and started out as a high-flying tech stock during the market boom going on at the time. As 2021 progressed though, the threat of interest rate increases took a toll on many high-flying tech stocks and Wall Street began to sour on the business automation software developer. The stock is trading down about 52% from its 52-week highs and about 82% from its all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當 UiPath 在 2021 年初上市並在當時的市場繁榮中成為一家高飛的科技股時，其潛力顯而易見。然而，隨着 2021 年的進展，利率上升的威脅對許多高飛的科技股產生了影響，華爾街開始對這家業務自動化軟件開發商感到失望。該股票從 52 周高點下跌約 52%，從歷史高點下跌約 82%。</p>
</div><p>In this raised interest-rate economic environment, the company is dealing with serious challenges, including increased competition, difficulty increasing its customer base, and management changes. For investors considering UiPath's stock today, its valuation is much more reasonable and it has some positives to factor in along with the challenges. Finding inexpensively valued comeback companies to invest in can be a terrific way to juice your long-term gains. Here's why I think UiPath could be one of those comeback stories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種升息的經濟環境中，公司面臨着嚴峻挑戰，包括增加競爭、難以擴大客户羣和管理變化。對於考慮購買 UiPath 股票的投資者來説，其估值更加合理，除了挑戰之外還有一些積極因素需要考慮。尋找價格合理的復甦公司進行投資可能是提高長期收益的絕佳方式。以下是我認為 UiPath 可能是其中之一的復甦故事的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Why did UiPath's stock tumble in 2024?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼 UiPath 的股價在 2024 年下跌？</h2>
</div><p>UiPath's stock was in a slow recovery mode through much of 2023 and into 2024. However, the stock took a significant fall after it delivered its latest earnings report in late May. Management lowered its full-year annual recurring revenue (ARR) guidance from $1.73 billion to $1.66 billion. A 4% guidance cut may not seem significant, but any guidance cut is significant for growing tech companies (companies tend to guide for easily reachable targets so they can beat them). Even more concerning, management lowered its full-year revenue guidance by 10% from $1.56 billion to $1.41 billion. With a dollar-based net retention rate of 118% (its existing customers spent 18% more than they had in the prior year), the downgraded revenue target indicates that it lost customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UiPath 的股價在 2023 年大部分時間和 2024 年一直處於緩慢復甦模式。然而，在 5 月底發佈最新財報後，股價大幅下跌。管理層將全年年度重複收入（ARR）指導從 17.3 億美元降至 16.6 億美元。4% 的指導削減可能看起來不重要，但對於增長型科技公司來説任何指導削減都很重要（公司往往會為容易達到的目標制定指導，以便超額完成）。更令人擔憂的是，管理層將全年營收指導從 15.6 億美元降至 14.1 億美元。淨基於美元的留存率為 118%（現有客户的支出比前一年增加了 18%），降級的營收目標表明公司失去了客户。</p>
</div><p>Another contributor to the stock drop was news that CEO Rob Enslin, who took over just four months ago, resigned suddenly. While Enslin was only CEO briefly (he had been co-CEO since 2022 along with company founder Daniel Dines) the fact that he didn't last long was a red flag for some investors. Dines returns to the CEO role, which should help settle things while management considers its next steps. Returning founders can sometimes also rejuvenate a company because of their passion and insider knowledge of the business. So this could end up being a positive development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股價下跌的另一個原因是首席執行官羅布·恩斯林（Rob Enslin）突然辭職的消息。儘管恩斯林擔任首席執行官的時間很短暫（自 2022 年以來一直擔任聯席首席執行官，與公司創始人丹尼爾·迪內斯（Daniel Dines）一起），但他沒有長時間任職對一些投資者來説是一個紅旗。迪內斯重新擔任首席執行官一職，這應該有助於穩定局勢，同時管理層考慮其下一步。創始人的迴歸有時也可以因其對業務的激情和內部知識而使公司煥發活力。因此，這可能會成為一個積極的發展。</p>
</div><h2>Positive cash flow, a strong balance sheet, and a massive market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>正現金流、強勁資產負債表和巨大市場</h2>
</div><p>UiPath is clearly trying to deal with some challenges. But there are also opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UiPath 顯然正在努力應對一些挑戰。但也存在機會。</p>
</div><p>As mentioned above, the return of its founder could kick-start UiPath. The business wasn't thriving under Enslin, so new (old?) leadership offers an opportunity for changes. Dines has a personal stake in UiPath's success and has a lot to work with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上所述，創始人的迴歸可能會帶動 UiPath。在恩斯林的領導下，該業務並未蓬勃發展，因此新（舊？）領導層提供了變革的機會。迪內斯對 UiPath 的成功有着個人利益，並且有很多可以利用的資源。</p>
</div><p>While UiPath's revenue growth has slowed, it hasn't stalled completely. ARR increased 21% year over year last quarter, while sales grew 16%. UiPath's cash flow is also positive, with an impressive 24% margin over the last four reported quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然 UiPath 的營收增長有所放緩，但並未完全停滯。上季度，ARR 同比增長了 21%，銷售增長了 16%。UiPath 的現金流也是正的，過去四個報告季度的利潤率為 24%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/256a0ae59e9ad23144778034ab5c7012.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/256a0ae59e9ad23144778034ab5c7012.png"/></p>
<p>PATH Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PATH 營收（TTM）數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Also, while there appears to have been some customer attrition, there are bright spots. The number of large customers that provide more than $100,000 and $1 million in annual sales increased again last quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，儘管存在一些客户流失，但也有亮點。上季度提供超過 10 萬美元和 100 萬美元年銷售額的大客户數量再次增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgyNDYvdWlwYXRoLWxhcmdlLWN1c3RvbWVycy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F788246%2Fuipath-large-customers.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Source: UiPath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：UiPath。</p>
</div><p>Dines is taking over a company that's in decent financial health. UiPath has nearly $2 billion in cash and investments on its books, no long-term debt, and just $598 million in current liabilities compared to $2.5 billion in current assets. That balance sheet will allow the company to fund growth, research and development, and strategic acquisitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪內斯接手的公司財務狀況良好。UiPath 賬面上擁有近 20 億美元的現金和投資，沒有長期債務，僅有 5.98 億美元的流動負債，而流動資產為 25 億美元。這樣的資產負債表將使公司能夠資助增長、研發和戰略收購。</p>
</div><p>Statista forecasts that the RPA market will grow at a compound annual rate of 37% through 2032, going from $3.7 billion in 2022 to over $80 billion. Even capturing a modest fraction of this market would be massive for a small company like UiPath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Statista 預測，RPA 市場將以每年 37% 的複合增長率增長，從 2022 年的 37 億美元增長到 2032 年的 800 億美元以上。即使佔據這一市場的一小部分，對於 UiPath 這樣的小公司來説也將是巨大的。</p>
</div><h2>Is UiPath stock a buy now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在是購買 UiPath 股票的時機嗎？</h2>
</div><p>The stock's valuation of about 5.2 times sales reflects the immense challenges UiPath faces. That price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is less than two-thirds of its recent average and lower than peers. For instance, <strong>Gitlab</strong> and <strong>CommVault Systems</strong> trade at significantly higher valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票的估值約為銷售額的 5.2 倍，反映了 UiPath 面臨的巨大挑戰。這個價格銷售（P/S）比率不到其最近平均水平的三分之二，低於同行。例如，<strong>Gitlab</strong> 和 <strong>CommVault Systems</strong> 的估值要高得多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61d61b8c5a2dfcd9f12b1260450bbfd0.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61d61b8c5a2dfcd9f12b1260450bbfd0.png"/></p>
<p>PATH PS Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PATH PS 比率數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>These software companies do different things, but they are all growing tech companies with market caps between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion and gross margins over 80%. The similarities make their valuations relevant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些軟件公司從事不同的業務，但它們都是增長型科技公司，市值在 65 億美元至 75 億美元之間，毛利率超過 80%。它們的相似之處使它們的估值具有相關性。</p>
</div><p>UiPath's success is far from guaranteed. However, it appears the market is pricing in all the challenges and none of the opportunities for this company. While investing a large portion of your portfolio in UiPath would be unwise, its comeback opportunity makes it a speculative buy for long-term investors who don't mind some risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UiPath 的成功並不是鐵定的。然而，市場似乎已經定價了該公司面臨的所有挑戰，卻沒有考慮到任何機會。儘管將投資組合中的大部分資金投入 UiPath 可能不明智，但其復甦機會使其成為長期投資者的投機購買，他們不介意承擔一些風險。</p>
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每個人都在放棄 UiPath 的股票。以下是我不放棄的原因