<p><strong>Recursion Pharmaceuticals</strong>(RXRX 0.54%) 看起來並不像傳奇投資者沃倫·巴菲特通常會感興趣的股票。它處於生物技術行業，這一行業往往波動較大，很難理解，許多新股票在該行業中沒有穩定的收入或利潤。更進一步複雜化的是，Recursion 從事新興領域的人工智能（AI）驅動藥物發現和開發，這意味着它缺乏巴菲特通常在投資中尋找的長期穩定表現歷史。</p>
<p>但是，如果該公司實現其雄心壯志，它可能會變得更接近奧馬哈神谷的偏好。以下是可能性及實現方式。</p>
<h2>克服這一障礙是計劃的一部分</h2>
<p>傳統上，巴菲特不青睞需要將大部分收入用於研發費用的企業。高昂的研發成本意味着公司沒有足夠強大的競爭優勢來保護其市場份額免受競爭對手的侵蝕。畢竟，如果公司需要不斷改進其產品或發明新產品以維持盈利增長，創新引擎最終可能會停滯，讓投資者期待增長的願望落空。</p>
<p>這部分是他很少投資於像 Recursion 這樣的生物製藥公司的原因之一。即使是最好的製藥公司也往往將大部分收入用於研發，並且它們很難免於遭遇昂貴的挫折，打亂了股東們預期的增長。事實上，巴菲特目前根本不持有任何製藥股。</p>
<p>然而，Recursion 的願景至少部分解決了這一根本問題，通過其在藥物開發技術和商業模式方面的創新。</p>
<p>這家生物技術公司的成名之作是其藥物發現和開發平台，該平台嚴重依賴人工智能、機器學習和大量專業數據。使用人工智能的目的在於幫助管理層選擇和優化最有前途的候選分子，推進每個臨牀前研究階段，據稱可以減少後期失敗，同時節省資金和時間。理想情況下，其平台還能轉化為更好的臨牀試驗數據，並加快向商業化的進展。</p>
<p>關於 Recursion 是否能夠真正實現這些改進，目前尚無定論。但是，如果它能夠實現，它將實現三種不同的增長途徑。第一種是簡單地開發新藥並自行商業化，而第二種是與希望利用其平台進行合作的大型製藥公司合作，第三種是授權使用其平台或數據寶庫的訪問權限。</p>
<p>這就是巴菲特可能開始感興趣的地方。</p>
<p>授權使用平台是一種非常低成本的收入生成方式，如果客户持續從獲取訪問權限中獲得價值，這將表明通過削減生物製藥研發成本來獲得競爭優勢。此外，如果合作伙伴願意支付大量里程碑費用以獲得 Recursion 更多實質性幫助，他們也很可能願意簽署協議，讓這家生物技術公司從合作中生產的任何藥物中獲得重要的版税，這是另一種低成本的收入流。</p>
<p>最後，如果 Recursion 能夠真正通過其平台降低自身管線項目的失敗率，相比競爭對手，它甚至可能能夠定期商業化藥物，以滿足巴菲特對長期穩定盈利增長的願望。</p>
<h2>這家生物技術公司還沒有達到最終形態</h2>
<p>是時候進行一個快速的現實檢查了。根據其於 8 月 8 日發佈的第二季度財報，Recursion 的研發費用為 7390 萬美元，而其收入僅為 1440 萬美元。這使其研發費用超過其季度收入的 513%，這是一個比率，巴菲特幾乎肯定會認為不合格。</p>
<p>然而，在未來幾年內可能會發生很多變化。Recursion 正在與另一家領先的人工智能生物技術公司 Exscientia 合併，兩家公司預計在未來 18 個月內報告約 10 個臨牀試驗結果。每個試驗結果都是對 Recursion 關於其平台有效性的論點的（小）證據，可能有利也可能不利。</p>
<p>在接下來的四年內，它可能會獲得多達四個管線項目的銷售批准。這意味着在未來五年內，有可能對其基於人工智能的方法及其未來定期提供更多收入的潛力做出更明確的判斷。</p>
<p>在那之前，它不可能成為巴菲特的股票。但從長遠來看，如果它能夠實現今天所宣稱的內容，它仍然很有可能符合沃倫的嚴格標準。</p>

RXRX

<p>Recursion Pharmaceuticals（Recursion Pharmaceuticals）是一家從事人工智能輔助藥物研發的生物科技公司，由於其高昂的研發費用和缺乏穩定的收入，通常不是沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）青睞的股票。儘管面臨這些挑戰，Recursion 的創新平台可能為其提供增長路徑，包括開發新藥物、與大型製藥公司合作以及授權其技術。最近與 Exscientia 的合併可能帶來重要的臨牀試驗見解，有望在未來幾年重新評估其投資吸引力。然而，其當前的研發費用遠遠超過收入，這引起了像巴菲特這樣的傳統投資者的擔憂</p>

<p><strong>Recursion Pharmaceuticals</strong>(RXRX 0.54%) doesn't look like a stock that legendary investor Warren Buffett would usually be interested in. It's in the biotech industry, which tends to be volatile and often difficult to understand, without significant recurring revenue or any profits for many of the newer stocks in the sector. To complicate matters further, Recursion is engaged in the emerging field of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled drug discovery and development, which means it lacks any of the long history of consistent performance that Buffett typically looks for in an investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Recursion Pharmaceuticals</strong>(RXRX 0.54%) 看起來並不像傳奇投資者沃倫·巴菲特通常會感興趣的股票。它處於生物技術行業，這一行業往往波動較大，很難理解，許多新股票在該行業中沒有穩定的收入或利潤。更進一步複雜化的是，Recursion 從事新興領域的人工智能（AI）驅動藥物發現和開發，這意味着它缺乏巴菲特通常在投資中尋找的長期穩定表現歷史。</p>
</div><p>But, if the company achieves its ambitions, it could become something a lot closer to what the Oracle of Omaha prefers. Here's why it's possible and how it can happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，如果該公司實現其雄心壯志，它可能會變得更接近奧馬哈神谷的偏好。以下是可能性及實現方式。</p>
</div><h2>Getting around this one sticking point is part of the plan</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>克服這一障礙是計劃的一部分</h2>
</div><p>Traditionally, Buffett doesn't favor businesses that need to spend a big proportion of their revenue on research and development (R&amp;D) expenses. High R&amp;D costs imply that the company doesn't have a strong enough competitive advantage with which to protect its market share from competitors. After all, if it needs to constantly improve its products or invent new ones to maintain earnings growth, it could only be a matter of time before the engine of innovation sputters out and leaves investors wanting growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傳統上，巴菲特不青睞需要將大部分收入用於研發費用的企業。高昂的研發成本意味着公司沒有足夠強大的競爭優勢來保護其市場份額免受競爭對手的侵蝕。畢竟，如果公司需要不斷改進其產品或發明新產品以維持盈利增長，創新引擎最終可能會停滯，讓投資者期待增長的願望落空。</p>
</div><p>That's part of the reason why he rarely invests in biopharmaceutical companies like Recursion. Even the best pharma players tend to spend a large proportion of their revenue on R&amp;D, and they're far from immune to experiencing costly setbacks that disrupt the growth that shareholders had penciled in. In fact, Buffett currently doesn't hold any pharma stocks whatsoever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這部分是他很少投資於像 Recursion 這樣的生物製藥公司的原因之一。即使是最好的製藥公司也往往將大部分收入用於研發，並且它們很難免於遭遇昂貴的挫折，打亂了股東們預期的增長。事實上，巴菲特目前根本不持有任何製藥股。</p>
</div><p>However, Recursion's vision is to at least partially solve this issue at the root via both its technical innovations in drug development and its business model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Recursion 的願景至少部分解決了這一根本問題，通過其在藥物開發技術和商業模式方面的創新。</p>
</div><p>The biotech's claim to fame is its drug discovery and development platform, which heavily relies on AI, machine learning, and reams of specialized data. The point of using AI is that it can help management select and optimize the most promising candidate molecules to advance through each phase of the preclinical research process, supposedly cutting down on late-stage failures while saving money and time along the way. Ideally, its platform also translates into better clinical trial data and faster progression toward commercialization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家生物技術公司的成名之作是其藥物發現和開發平台，該平台嚴重依賴人工智能、機器學習和大量專業數據。使用人工智能的目的在於幫助管理層選擇和優化最有前途的候選分子，推進每個臨牀前研究階段，據稱可以減少後期失敗，同時節省資金和時間。理想情況下，其平台還能轉化為更好的臨牀試驗數據，並加快向商業化的進展。</p>
</div><p>The jury is still out regarding whether Recursion can actually deliver those improvements over the traditional drug development approach. Still, if it does, it'll realize three distinct avenues for growth. The first is to simply develop new drugs and commercialize them on its own, whereas the second is to partner with big pharmas that want to use its platform for their own purposes, and the third is to license out access to its platform or its data trove.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於 Recursion 是否能夠真正實現這些改進，目前尚無定論。但是，如果它能夠實現，它將實現三種不同的增長途徑。第一種是簡單地開發新藥並自行商業化，而第二種是與希望利用其平台進行合作的大型製藥公司合作，第三種是授權使用其平台或數據寶庫的訪問權限。</p>
</div><p>And that's where Buffett's ears could start to perk up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是巴菲特可能開始感興趣的地方。</p>
</div><p>Licensing out access to a platform is a very low-cost way of generating revenue, and if customers are consistently deriving value from gaining access, it would point to the presence of a competitive advantage via slashing biopharma R&amp;D costs. Furthermore, if collaborators are willing to fork over a lot of milestone payments to get more hands-on help from Recursion, there's a high chance that they'll also be willing to sign on the dotted line for the biotech to earn significant royalties from any medicines produced by the collaborations -- another low-cost revenue stream.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>授權使用平台是一種非常低成本的收入生成方式，如果客户持續從獲取訪問權限中獲得價值，這將表明通過削減生物製藥研發成本來獲得競爭優勢。此外，如果合作伙伴願意支付大量里程碑費用以獲得 Recursion 更多實質性幫助，他們也很可能願意簽署協議，讓這家生物技術公司從合作中生產的任何藥物中獲得重要的版税，這是另一種低成本的收入流。</p>
</div><p>Finally, if -- and this is a big if -- Recursion can genuinely reduce the failure rate of its own pipeline projects compared to competitors by using its platform, it might even be able to commercialize medicines regularly enough to satisfy Buffett's desire for stable earnings growth over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，如果 Recursion 能夠真正通過其平台降低自身管線項目的失敗率，相比競爭對手，它甚至可能能夠定期商業化藥物，以滿足巴菲特對長期穩定盈利增長的願望。</p>
</div><h2>This biotech isn't in its final form yet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這家生物技術公司還沒有達到最終形態</h2>
</div><p>Time for a quick reality check. Per its Q2 earnings published on Aug. 8, Recursion's R&amp;D expenses were $73.9 million, and its revenue was just $14.4 million. That puts its R&amp;D expenses at more than 513% of its quarterly revenue, which is a ratio that Buffett would almost certainly find disqualifying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是時候進行一個快速的現實檢查了。根據其於 8 月 8 日發佈的第二季度財報，Recursion 的研發費用為 7390 萬美元，而其收入僅為 1440 萬美元。這使其研發費用超過其季度收入的 513%，這是一個比率，巴菲特幾乎肯定會認為不合格。</p>
</div><p>Still, a lot could change over the next few years. Recursion is merging with <strong>Exscientia</strong>, another leading AI-enabled biotech pursuing new approaches to drug development, and between the two of them, it expects to report around 10 clinical trial readouts over the next 18 months. Each of those readouts is a (small) piece of evidence that could swing in favor or against Recursion's thesis about the effectiveness of its platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在未來幾年內可能會發生很多變化。Recursion 正在與另一家領先的人工智能生物技術公司 Exscientia 合併，兩家公司預計在未來 18 個月內報告約 10 個臨牀試驗結果。每個試驗結果都是對 Recursion 關於其平台有效性的論點的（小）證據，可能有利也可能不利。</p>
</div><p>Within the next four years, it could get as many as four of its pipeline programs approved for sale. That means it should be possible within five years to make a more definitive judgment about the merits of its AI-based approach and its potential to deliver more revenue on a regular basis in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在接下來的四年內，它可能會獲得多達四個管線項目的銷售批准。這意味着在未來五年內，有可能對其基於人工智能的方法及其未來定期提供更多收入的潛力做出更明確的判斷。</p>
</div><p>Until then, it can't be a Buffett stock. But in the long run, if it delivers what it claims it has today, it's still quite possible that it'd meet Warren's stringent specifications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在那之前，它不可能成為巴菲特的股票。但從長遠來看，如果它能夠實現今天所宣稱的內容，它仍然很有可能符合沃倫的嚴格標準。</p>
</div>

Recursion Pharmaceuticals 是沃倫·巴菲特持有的股票嗎？