<p>在新股上市時立即跳進購買一隻時髦新股的機會可能很誘人。但是，<strong>Dutch Bros</strong>(BROS 2.21%) 自首次公開募股（IPO）以來股價下跌約 40%，這就是為什麼耐心等待可能更值得的一個例子。讓我們深入瞭解一下這家創新咖啡連鎖店在未來五年甚至更長時間內是否能夠復甦。</p>
<h2>Dutch Bros 是什麼？</h2>
<p>儘管許多美國人最近才開始熟悉 Dutch Bros，但它並不是一家新公司。這家以便利為重點的駛入式咖啡連鎖店成立於 1992 年的俄勒岡州，然後逐漸擴展到美國西部。在上市後，它的擴張計劃加速進行，旨在與 <strong>星巴克</strong>、<strong>Dunkin' Brands</strong> 和 <strong>餐廳品牌國際</strong> 旗下的 Tim Hortons 等老牌競爭對手競爭。</p>
<p>儘管看起來很簡單，但咖啡行業並不適合軟弱的人。一些專家估計，62% 的獨立咖啡店在開業的頭五年就會倒閉。Dutch Bros 從其謙卑的開始發展成為一個半國家連鎖店（在 18 個州擁有 912 家門店）的歷程，這説明了它對消費者的價值主張。</p>
<p>與星巴克不同，星巴克呈現出一個舒適的第三空間，人們可以在那裏完成工作，而 Dutch Bros 則專注於速度和便利。它的門店只有駛入式。但它在周到友好的員工和個性化客户體驗方面取得了平衡。</p>
<p>但也許最重要的是，Dutch Bros 並不針對咖啡行家。其菜單擁有各種飲品，從甜蜜的能量飲料到波霸奶茶、奶昔和冰沙，適合喜歡獨特口味組合的消費者。</p>
<h2>為什麼股票表現不佳？</h2>
<p>Dutch Bros 第二季度營收同比增長 30%，達到 3.249 億美元，受到 36 家新店開業（達到 912 家）和適度的同店銷售增長的推動。營業收入增長 64%，達到 3.22 億美元。該公司的獎勵計劃受到了極大的興趣，消費者可以通過符合條件的購買獲得免費飲品。</p>
<p>會員在該期間佔所有交易的驚人 67%，這表明這可能成為忠誠度和留存的關鍵驅動因素。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODg3OTQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM1ODA0OTg2My5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODg3OTQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM1ODA0OTg2My5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>儘管 Dutch Bros 似乎具備可持續成功的所有要素，但這並沒有使其公開股票成為一個好的投資。最大的問題似乎是過度估值。儘管股價已從歷史最高價 76 美元大幅下跌，但在我看來，市場仍然以溢價定價股票，前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 75。</p>
<p>為了更好理解，<strong>標普 500</strong> 指數的前瞻估計僅為 23，而類似的股票如星巴克或 <strong>瑞幸咖啡</strong> 的前瞻市盈率分別為 24 和 18。雖然成長型公司以溢價交易是正常的，但 Dutch Bros 目前的業績似乎並不能證明其股票的高價值。</p>
<h2>未來五年可能會發生什麼？</h2>
<p>儘管根據預計的未來 12 個月收益，Dutch Bros 看起來被高估了，但在未來幾年可能會發生變化。與類似的咖啡連鎖店不同，Dutch Bros 仍然相對較小。該公司可以通過在美國乃至全球推出其經過驗證的戰略來開拓一個巨大的可尋址市場。投資者可以因為其明顯未開發的潛力而對這隻昂貴的股票寬容一些。</p>

BROS

<p>荷蘭兄弟公司自首次公開募股以來股價已下跌 40%，凸顯了投資者需要耐心等待的重要性。這家成立於 1992 年的駛入式咖啡連鎖店已擴張至 912 家門店，但面臨着激烈的競爭。儘管營收增長強勁，但其股票被認為是被高估的，目前市盈率為 75，而標普 500 指數為 23。然而，其擴張計劃和獨特的市場定位可能在未來五年內提供復甦的潛力</p>

<p>It can be tempting to jump on the chance to buy a hip new stock as soon as it hits public markets. But with shares down around 40% since its initial public offering (IPO), <strong>Dutch Bros</strong>(BROS 2.21%) is an example of why it can pay to be more patient. Let's dig deeper to see if this innovative coffee chain can recover over the next half-decade and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新股上市時立即跳進購買一隻時髦新股的機會可能很誘人。但是，<strong>Dutch Bros</strong>(BROS 2.21%) 自首次公開募股（IPO）以來股價下跌約 40%，這就是為什麼耐心等待可能更值得的一個例子。讓我們深入瞭解一下這家創新咖啡連鎖店在未來五年甚至更長時間內是否能夠復甦。</p>
</div><h2>What is Dutch Bros?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Dutch Bros 是什麼？</h2>
</div><p>Although many Americans have just recently become familiar with it, Dutch Bros is far from a new company. The convenience-focused drive-thru coffee chain was founded in 1992 in Oregon before slowly spreading across the Western United States. After going public, its expansion plans have accelerated as it seeks to compete against established rivals like <strong>Starbucks</strong>, <strong>Dunkin' Brands</strong>, and <strong>Restaurant Brands International</strong>'s Tim Hortons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管許多美國人最近才開始熟悉 Dutch Bros，但它並不是一家新公司。這家以便利為重點的駛入式咖啡連鎖店成立於 1992 年的俄勒岡州，然後逐漸擴展到美國西部。在上市後，它的擴張計劃加速進行，旨在與 <strong>星巴克</strong>、<strong>Dunkin' Brands</strong> 和 <strong>餐廳品牌國際</strong> 旗下的 Tim Hortons 等老牌競爭對手競爭。</p>
</div><p>Although it may look simple, the coffee industry is not for the weak-hearted. Some experts estimate that 62% of independent shops fail in their first five years of operation. And Dutch Bros' journey from its humble beginnings into a semi-national chain (with 912 locations across 18 states) says a lot about its value proposition to consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管看起來很簡單，但咖啡行業並不適合軟弱的人。一些專家估計，62% 的獨立咖啡店在開業的頭五年就會倒閉。Dutch Bros 從其謙卑的開始發展成為一個半國家連鎖店（在 18 個州擁有 912 家門店）的歷程，這説明了它對消費者的價值主張。</p>
</div><p>Unlike Starbucks, which presents as a cozy third space where people can get work done, Dutch Bros focuses on speed and convenience. Its locations are drive-thru only. But it has balanced this around bubbly and friendly staff trained to personalize the customer experience.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與星巴克不同，星巴克呈現出一個舒適的第三空間，人們可以在那裏完成工作，而 Dutch Bros 則專注於速度和便利。它的門店只有駛入式。但它在周到友好的員工和個性化客户體驗方面取得了平衡。</p>
</div><p>But perhaps most importantly, Dutch Bros isn't targeted toward coffee snobs. Its menu boasts a wide array of drinks, ranging from sugary energy drinks to boba tea, milkshakes, and smoothies, making it ideal for consumers who enjoy unique flavor combinations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但也許最重要的是，Dutch Bros 並不針對咖啡行家。其菜單擁有各種飲品，從甜蜜的能量飲料到波霸奶茶、奶昔和冰沙，適合喜歡獨特口味組合的消費者。</p>
</div><h2>Why is the stock underperforming?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼股票表現不佳？</h2>
</div><p>Dutch Bros' second-quarter revenue grew 30% year over year to $324.9 million, driven by 36 new shop openings (to 912) and modest same-shop sales growth. Operating income jumped 64% to $32.2 million. The company enjoys significant interest in its rewards program, which allows consumers to get free drinks by making qualified purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Dutch Bros 第二季度營收同比增長 30%，達到 3.249 億美元，受到 36 家新店開業（達到 912 家）和適度的同店銷售增長的推動。營業收入增長 64%，達到 3.22 億美元。該公司的獎勵計劃受到了極大的興趣，消費者可以通過符合條件的購買獲得免費飲品。</p>
</div><p>Members represented a whopping 67% of all transactions in the period, suggesting this is shaping up to be a key driver of loyalty and retention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>會員在該期間佔所有交易的驚人 67%，這表明這可能成為忠誠度和留存的關鍵驅動因素。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODg3OTQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM1ODA0OTg2My5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F788794%2Fgettyimages-1358049863.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>But while Dutch Bros seems to have all the ingredients for sustainable success, that hasn't necessarily made its public stock a good investment. The biggest problem seems to be overvaluation. Despite falling significantly from its all-time high of $76, in my view, the market is still pricing the shares at a premium, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 75.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 Dutch Bros 似乎具備可持續成功的所有要素，但這並沒有使其公開股票成為一個好的投資。最大的問題似乎是過度估值。儘管股價已從歷史最高價 76 美元大幅下跌，但在我看來，市場仍然以溢價定價股票，前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 75。</p>
</div><p>For context, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index trades at a forward estimate of just 23 while comparable stocks like Starbucks or <strong>Luckin Coffee</strong> trade for forward P/Es of 24 and 18, respectively. And while it is normal for growth-oriented companies to trade at premiums, Dutch Bros' current results don't seem to justify its stock's inflated price tag.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了更好理解，<strong>標普 500</strong> 指數的前瞻估計僅為 23，而類似的股票如星巴克或 <strong>瑞幸咖啡</strong> 的前瞻市盈率分別為 24 和 18。雖然成長型公司以溢價交易是正常的，但 Dutch Bros 目前的業績似乎並不能證明其股票的高價值。</p>
</div><h2>What could the next five years have in store?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未來五年可能會發生什麼？</h2>
</div><p>While Dutch Bros looks overpriced based on projected 12-month earnings, that could change over the coming years. Unlike comparable coffee chains, Dutch Bros is still relatively tiny. And the company could unlock a vast addressable market by rolling out its proven strategy across the U.S. and, eventually, the rest of the world. Investors can cut this pricey stock some slack because of its clear, untapped potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管根據預計的未來 12 個月收益，Dutch Bros 看起來被高估了，但在未來幾年可能會發生變化。與類似的咖啡連鎖店不同，Dutch Bros 仍然相對較小。該公司可以通過在美國乃至全球推出其經過驗證的戰略來開拓一個巨大的可尋址市場。投資者可以因為其明顯未開發的潛力而對這隻昂貴的股票寬容一些。</p>
</div>

Dutch Bros 的股票在五年後會處於什麼位置？