<p><strong>賽富時</strong>(CRM -0.15%) 於 8 月 28 日發佈了最新的財報。截至 2025 財年第二季度（截至 7 月 31 日），這家雲軟件巨頭的營收同比增長 8%，達到 93.3 億美元，超出分析師預期 1 億美元。調整後的每股收益（EPS）增長 21%，達到 2.56 美元，超出共識預期 0.20 美元。</p>
<p>賽富時的增長率看起來健康，但股價今年仍下跌 2%。讓我們看看現在是否值得購買。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODkxNDYvY2xvdWQtY29tcHV0aW5nLXRlYW0tYnVzaW5lc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODkxNDYvY2xvdWQtY29tcHV0aW5nLXRlYW0tYnVzaW5lc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>賽富時的增長仍在放緩</h2>
<p>賽富時是全球領先的基於雲的客户關係管理（CRM）服務提供商。它還提供其他基於雲的營銷、電子商務、分析和企業協作服務。在 2025 財年上半年，它的訂閲和支持收入中，23% 來自銷售雲，26% 來自服務雲，20% 來自平台和其他雲，15% 來自營銷和商務雲，16% 來自集成和分析雲。以下是過去兩年半中這五個部門的表現（按恆定貨幣計算）。</p>
<p>各部門營收增長 |</p>
<p>2023 財年 |</p>
<p>2024 財年 |</p>
<p>2025 財年 Q1 |</p>
<p>2025 財年 Q2 |
|</p>
<p>銷售 |</p>
<p>19% |</p>
<p>11% |</p>
<p>11% |</p>
<p>10% |
|</p>
<p>服務 |</p>
<p>18% |</p>
<p>12% |</p>
<p>11% |</p>
<p>11% |
|</p>
<p>平台和其他 |</p>
<p>36% |</p>
<p>11% |</p>
<p>10% |</p>
<p>10% |
|</p>
<p>營銷和商務 |</p>
<p>21% |</p>
<p>9% |</p>
<p>10% |</p>
<p>7% |
|</p>
<p>集成和分析 |</p>
<p>16% |</p>
<p>20% |</p>
<p>25% |</p>
<p>14% |
|</p>
<p>總計 |</p>
<p>22% |</p>
<p>11% |</p>
<p>11% |</p>
<p>9% |</p>
<p>數據來源：賽富時。按恆定貨幣計算。</p>
<p>多年來，賽富時通過大規模收購擴大了其生態系統。但在 2023 財年（截至 2023 年 1 月）遭到激進投資者圍攻後，賽富時暫停了非有機擴張，轉而削減成本，回購更多股票以提升 EPS。它還首次發放股息。</p>
<p>隨着賽富時優先考慮擴大運營利潤率而非增長營收，不斷上升的利率和其他宏觀阻力導致許多公司限制了雲計算支出。它還面臨來自增長更快的 CRM 平台（如 <strong>微軟</strong> 的 Dynamics）和其他多元化雲軟件平台的激烈競爭。</p>
<p>對於 2025 財年，賽富時預計其營收僅增長 8% 至 9%，這意味着在下半年整體增速僅為高個位數。因此，其最近推出的生成式人工智能服務（用於分析客户數據和自動化重複任務）尚未顯著提升銷售。</p>
<h2>但其利潤率仍在擴大</h2>
<p>賽富時的高增長時期可能已經結束，但裁員和降低成本措施正在提升其利潤率。其調整後的營運利潤率從 2023 財年的 22.5% 上升至 2024 財年的 30.5%，預計將在 2025 財年擴大至 32.8%。</p>
<p>其營運現金流在 2023 財年增長了 41%，在 2024 財年增長了 44%，預計 2025 財年將再增長 23% 至 25%。它還將股票回購從 2023 財年的 40 億美元增至 2024 財年的 76 億美元，並在 2025 財年上半年再回購 65 億美元的股票。其當前回購授權額度還剩下 119 億美元。</p>
<p>賽富時預計這些不斷增長的利潤率和股票回購將使其全年調整後的 EPS 增長 22% 至 23%。以 258 美元的股價計算，其股票仍以該預測中間值的 26 倍合理價值。而預計其當前財年（從 7 月開始）盈利增長僅為 11% 的微軟，交易倍數為 31 倍。</p>
<h2>現在是購買這隻科技股的正確時機嗎？</h2>
<p>賽富時的底線改善取悦了其激進投資者，但其長期增長潛力尚不明朗。其有機增長乏力，無法通過投資和收購大舉擴張，因為其專注於削減成本、增加營運現金流和回購更多股票。</p>
<p>換句話説，賽富時有可能成為下一個 <strong>IBM</strong>(IBM 1.41%) -- 這家過於專注於增長 EPS 而導致營收增長停滯了整整十年的藍籌科技巨頭。如果發生這種情況，賽富時的 EPS 增速將放緩，並且將被重新定價為增速緩慢的股票。目前，在有如此多更好的成長、價值和股息股票可供選擇時，購買賽富時的股票並不太明智。</p>

賽富時

<p>Salesforce（CRM）報告稱，截至 2025 財年第二季度，營收同比增長 8%，達到 83.3 億美元，超出分析師的預期。儘管這些數據表現出色，但該股票今年下跌了 2%。該公司正在經歷增長放緩，預計營收增長僅為 8%-9%，原因是利率上升和競爭加劇。然而，削減成本措施已將其營運利潤率從 22.5% 提高至預計的 32.8%。儘管如此，分析師對 Salesforce 的長期增長潛力表示警告，並將其與 IBM 過去增長緩慢的情況進行了類比</p>

<p><strong>Salesforce</strong>(CRM -0.15%) posted its latest earnings report on Aug. 28. In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended on July 31, the cloud software giant's revenue rose 8% year over year to $9.33 billion and exceeded analysts' estimates by $100 million. Its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew 21% to $2.56 and cleared the consensus forecast by $0.20.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>賽富時</strong>(CRM -0.15%) 於 8 月 28 日發佈了最新的財報。截至 2025 財年第二季度（截至 7 月 31 日），這家雲軟件巨頭的營收同比增長 8%，達到 93.3 億美元，超出分析師預期 1 億美元。調整後的每股收益（EPS）增長 21%，達到 2.56 美元，超出共識預期 0.20 美元。</p>
</div><p>Salesforce's growth rates seem healthy, but its stock remains down 2% for the year. Let's see if it's worth buying right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>賽富時的增長率看起來健康，但股價今年仍下跌 2%。讓我們看看現在是否值得購買。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODkxNDYvY2xvdWQtY29tcHV0aW5nLXRlYW0tYnVzaW5lc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F789146%2Fcloud-computing-team-business.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Salesforce's growth is still slowing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>賽富時的增長仍在放緩</h2>
</div><p>Salesforce is the world's leading provider of cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) services. It also provides other cloud-based marketing, e-commerce, analytics, and enterprise collaboration services. In the first half of fiscal 2025, it generated 23% of its subscription and support revenue from its Sales Cloud, 26% from its Service Cloud, 20% from its Platform and Other Cloud, 15% from its Marketing and Commerce Cloud, and 16% from its Integration and Analytics Cloud. Here's how those five units fared (in constant currency terms) over the past two-and-a-half fiscal years.</p>
<p>|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>賽富時是全球領先的基於雲的客户關係管理（CRM）服務提供商。它還提供其他基於雲的營銷、電子商務、分析和企業協作服務。在 2025 財年上半年，它的訂閲和支持收入中，23% 來自銷售雲，26% 來自服務雲，20% 來自平台和其他雲，15% 來自營銷和商務雲，16% 來自集成和分析雲。以下是過去兩年半中這五個部門的表現（按恆定貨幣計算）。</p>
</div><p>Revenue Growth by Segment |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>各部門營收增長 |</p>
</div><p>FY 2023 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 財年 |</p>
</div><p>FY 2024 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 財年 |</p>
</div><p>Q1 2025 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 財年 Q1 |</p>
</div><p>Q2 2025 |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 財年 Q2 |
|</p>
</div><p>Sales |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銷售 |</p>
</div><p>19% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>19% |</p>
</div><p>11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |</p>
</div><p>11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |</p>
</div><p>10% |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10% |
|</p>
</div><p>Service |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服務 |</p>
</div><p>18% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>18% |</p>
</div><p>12% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12% |</p>
</div><p>11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |</p>
</div><p>11% |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |
|</p>
</div><p>Platform and other |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平台和其他 |</p>
</div><p>36% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>36% |</p>
</div><p>11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |</p>
</div><p>10% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10% |</p>
</div><p>10% |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10% |
|</p>
</div><p>Marketing and commerce |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>營銷和商務 |</p>
</div><p>21% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>21% |</p>
</div><p>9% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>9% |</p>
</div><p>10% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10% |</p>
</div><p>7% |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7% |
|</p>
</div><p>Integration and analytics |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>集成和分析 |</p>
</div><p>16% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>16% |</p>
</div><p>20% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>20% |</p>
</div><p>25% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>25% |</p>
</div><p>14% |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>14% |
|</p>
</div><p>Total |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總計 |</p>
</div><p>22% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>22% |</p>
</div><p>11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |</p>
</div><p>11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11% |</p>
</div><p>9% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>9% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: Salesforce. Constant currency basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：賽富時。按恆定貨幣計算。</p>
</div><p>For many years, Salesforce expanded its ecosystem through big acquisitions. But after being besieged by activist investors in fiscal 2023 (which ended in January 2023), Salesforce paused its inorganic expansion and pivoted toward cutting costs and buying back more shares to boost its EPS. It also initiated its first dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年來，賽富時通過大規模收購擴大了其生態系統。但在 2023 財年（截至 2023 年 1 月）遭到激進投資者圍攻後，賽富時暫停了非有機擴張，轉而削減成本，回購更多股票以提升 EPS。它還首次發放股息。</p>
</div><p>As Salesforce prioritized expanding its operating margins over growing its revenues, rising interest rates and other macro headwinds drove many companies to rein in their cloud spending. It also faced stiff competition from faster-growing CRM platforms like <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s (MSFT -0.13%) Dynamics and other diversified cloud software platforms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着賽富時優先考慮擴大運營利潤率而非增長營收，不斷上升的利率和其他宏觀阻力導致許多公司限制了雲計算支出。它還面臨來自增長更快的 CRM 平台（如 <strong>微軟</strong> 的 Dynamics）和其他多元化雲軟件平台的激烈競爭。</p>
</div><p>For fiscal 2025, Salesforce expects its revenue to only grow 8% to 9%, which implies it will only grow at a high-single-digit rate throughout the second half of the year. Therefore, the recent expansion of its generative AI services (for analyzing its customer data and automating repetitive tasks) aren't meaningfully boosting its sales yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於 2025 財年，賽富時預計其營收僅增長 8% 至 9%，這意味着在下半年整體增速僅為高個位數。因此，其最近推出的生成式人工智能服務（用於分析客户數據和自動化重複任務）尚未顯著提升銷售。</p>
</div><h2>But its margins are still expanding</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但其利潤率仍在擴大</h2>
</div><p>Salesforce's high-growth days might be over, but its layoffs and cost-cutting measures are boosting its margins. Its adjusted operating margin rose from 22.5% in fiscal 2023 to 30.5% in fiscal 2024, and it expects it to expand to 32.8% in fiscal 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>賽富時的高增長時期可能已經結束，但裁員和降低成本措施正在提升其利潤率。其調整後的營運利潤率從 2023 財年的 22.5% 上升至 2024 財年的 30.5%，預計將在 2025 財年擴大至 32.8%。</p>
</div><p>Its operating cash flow rose 41% in fiscal 2023 and 44% in fiscal 2024, and it anticipates another 23% to 25% growth in fiscal 2025. It also ramped up its buybacks from $4 billion in fiscal 2023 to $7.6 billion in fiscal 2024, and it repurchased another $6.5 billion in shares in the first half of fiscal 2025. It still has $11.9 billion left in its current buyback authorization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其營運現金流在 2023 財年增長了 41%，在 2024 財年增長了 44%，預計 2025 財年將再增長 23% 至 25%。它還將股票回購從 2023 財年的 40 億美元增至 2024 財年的 76 億美元，並在 2025 財年上半年再回購 65 億美元的股票。其當前回購授權額度還剩下 119 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Salesforce expects those rising margins and buybacks to boost its adjusted EPS by 22% to 23% for the full year. At $258 a share, its stock still looks reasonably valued at 26 times the midpoint of that forecast. Microsoft, which is expected to grow its earnings just 11% in its current fiscal year (which started in July), trades at 31 times forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>賽富時預計這些不斷增長的利潤率和股票回購將使其全年調整後的 EPS 增長 22% 至 23%。以 258 美元的股價計算，其股票仍以該預測中間值的 26 倍合理價值。而預計其當前財年（從 7 月開始）盈利增長僅為 11% 的微軟，交易倍數為 31 倍。</p>
</div><h2>Is it the right tech stock to buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在是購買這隻科技股的正確時機嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Salesforce's bottom-line improvements appeased its activist investors, but its long-term growth potential is murky. Its organic growth is underwhelming, and it can't aggressively expand through investments and acquisitions as long as it's so focused on cutting costs, increasing its operating cash flow, and buying back more shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>賽富時的底線改善取悦了其激進投資者，但其長期增長潛力尚不明朗。其有機增長乏力，無法通過投資和收購大舉擴張，因為其專注於削減成本、增加營運現金流和回購更多股票。</p>
</div><p>In other words, there's a risk that Salesforce could become the next <strong>IBM</strong>(IBM 1.41%) -- the blue chip tech giant that focused so much on growing its EPS that its revenue growth stalled out for an entire decade. If that happens, Salesforce's EPS growth will decelerate, and it will be revalued as a slow-growth stock. For now, it doesn't make much sense to buy Salesforce's stock when there are so many better growth, value, and dividend stocks to choose from.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，賽富時有可能成為下一個 <strong>IBM</strong>(IBM 1.41%) -- 這家過於專注於增長 EPS 而導致營收增長停滯了整整十年的藍籌科技巨頭。如果發生這種情況，賽富時的 EPS 增速將放緩，並且將被重新定價為增速緩慢的股票。目前，在有如此多更好的成長、價值和股息股票可供選擇時，購買賽富時的股票並不太明智。</p>
</div>

賽富時的股票現在值得購買嗎？