<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/08/brazil-deficit-invezz.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/08/brazil-deficit-invezz.jpg"/></p>
<p>StoneCo Ltd (NASDAQ: STNE) 今日股價大幅下跌，跌幅超過 10%，摔至 7 美元，這是因為摩根士丹利將該股評級從 “持平” 下調至 “弱勢”，並將其目標股價從 16.50 美元下調至 7 美元。</p>
<p>這一下調意味着股價可能比當前交易水平下跌超過 40%，反映了市場對該公司近期前景的悲觀情緒。</p>
<p>下調主要是由於對 StoneCo 所在的巴西數字支付行業市場飽和的擔憂，以及對支付量增長大幅放緩的預期。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的展望與廣泛共識形成鮮明對比，後者預計 StoneCo 的淨收入將繼續保持兩位數增長。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的下調是因為該公司認為巴西數字支付市場已經成熟，減少了進一步擴張的機會。</p>
<p>分析師對 StoneCo 的盈利能力的可持續性表示擔憂，強調商户收購增長和整體盈利能力可能面臨重大阻力。</p>
<p>報告指出，市場低估了這種飽和狀態帶來的挑戰，以及在未來幾年可能對 StoneCo 盈利造成的壓力。</p>
<p>因此，摩根士丹利已經大幅調低了對 StoneCo 的長期盈利預期，預期現在已經低於共識預期 50%-60%。</p>
<h2>StoneCo 第二季度盈利</h2>
<p>這一下調掩蓋了 StoneCo 在 2024 年第二季度表現相對強勁的事實。</p>
<p>公司報告的營收為 32.1 億雷亞爾（約合 5.86 億美元），超出分析師預期，同比增長 8.5%。</p>
<p>這一增長是由金融服務收入強勁增長 10.6% 推動的，反映了活躍客户羣體的持續增長和更高的客户貨幣化。</p>
<p>StoneCo 的調整後每股收益也超出預期，達到 1.61 雷亞爾，高於去年同期的 0.98 雷亞爾。</p>
<p>公司的總支付量（TPV）增長迅猛，同比增長 21.6%，達到 1261 億雷亞爾，其中 MSMB 部門對這一增長做出了重要貢獻。</p>
<p>儘管取得了這些積極成果，但人們仍然擔憂公司的成本結構受到壓力，成本同比大幅上升 22.8%，主要是由於對壞賬準備金和物流、技術支出增加。</p>
<p>雖然公司已經將行政費用降低了 15.9%，但利潤率的壓力仍然是一個關鍵問題。</p>
<p>調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率雖然略有改善，達到 49.5%，但反映了這些成本挑戰，如果公司在核心市場面臨阻力，這種挑戰可能會持續。</p>
<h2>StoneCo 的不良貸款</h2>
<p>StoneCo 最近表現中最令人擔憂的一個方面是不良貸款的增加。</p>
<p>公司的信貸組合中不良貸款增加，特別是在 15-90 天和超過 90 天的類別中，分別增加了 66 和 113 個基點。</p>
<p>不良貸款的上升令人擔憂，特別是考慮到 StoneCo 在信貸業務方面存在挑戰的歷史。</p>
<p>不斷增加的違約可能表明信貸質量存在潛在問題，可能導致未來更高的損失，進一步加劇公司的財務健康狀況。</p>
<p>StoneCo 管理層已經採取措施緩解其中一些挑戰。</p>
<p>公司專注於擴大高利潤產品並改善成本管理流程。</p>
<p>這一戰略已經幫助 StoneCo 維持盈利能力，正如第二季度淨收入同比增長 54% 所證明的那樣。</p>
<p>此外，公司正在進行的股票回購計劃，得到了堅實的現金頭寸支持，可能在短期內為股價提供一些支撐。</p>
<p>然而，這些努力可能不足以抵消公司面臨的更廣泛挑戰。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的下調反映了對 StoneCo 在越來越競爭激烈和市場飽和的巴西支付市場中導航能力的日益懷疑。</p>
<h2>StoneCo 的估值</h2>
<p>從估值角度來看，StoneCo 當前的指標並未給投資者帶來太多安慰。</p>
<p>儘管股價最近下跌，但公司的市盈率仍接近行業平均水平，提供的安全邊際不大。</p>
<p>股票估值似乎有些過高，特別是考慮到預期增長和盈利能力放緩。</p>
<p>儘管公司在維持營收增長方面表現出堅韌性，但成本上升、不良貸款增加和市場環境飽和的結合對其長期估值前景構成重大風險。</p>
<p>要深入瞭解 StoneCo 股票未來可能走勢，有必要轉向技術指標。</p>
<p>通過分析圖表，我們可以探討最近的下跌是否預示着進一步下滑，或者是否存在反彈的可能性，為未來幾周內股票潛在軌跡提供更清晰的視角。</p>
<h2>StoneCo：技術分析</h2>
<p>StoneCo 股價在去年 10 月至 12 月間翻了一番，但自今年年初以來開始下滑。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/STNE_2024-09-05_19-17-25-1024x555.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/STNE_2024-09-05_19-17-25-1024x555.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>今天，股價站在一個關鍵時刻，因為它低於 11.50 美元附近的中期支撐位開盤。</p>
<p>除非股價成功收復該水平並在該水平上方周線收盤，否則對多頭來説情況看起來暗淡。</p>
<p>如果股價未能收復該水平，它可能回落至去年多次得到支撐的 9.5 美元水平。</p>
<p>目前，尋求做空該股票的交易者有一個低風險高回報的機會，因為他們可以在 11.7 美元附近做空該股票，設定止損位在 12.24 美元附近，利潤目標為 9.5 美元。</p>
<p>StoneCo 股票今天暴跌：原因在這裏</p>

STNE

<p>StoneCo Ltd（納斯達克股票代碼：STNE）在摩根大通將其評級從 “持平” 下調至 “低於市場平均” 後，股價下跌超過 10%，並嚴重下調了價格目標。分析師們對巴西數字支付市場飽和表示擔憂，暗示該公司的長期盈利預測現在比市場共識低 50%-60%。儘管報告顯示第二季度收入增長強勁，但不良貸款上升和成本增加引起投資者擔憂。股票估值看似過高，技術指標矛盾，目前在關鍵支撐水平下方掙扎</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/08/brazil-deficit-invezz.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/08/brazil-deficit-invezz.jpg"/></p>
<p>StoneCo Ltd (NASDAQ: STNE) witnessed a significant decline in its stock price today, plummeting over 10% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Underweight and slashed its price target to $7 from $16.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneCo Ltd (NASDAQ: STNE) 今日股價大幅下跌，跌幅超過 10%，摔至 7 美元，這是因為摩根士丹利將該股評級從 “持平” 下調至 “弱勢”，並將其目標股價從 16.50 美元下調至 7 美元。</p>
</div><p>This cut implies a potential downside of more than 40% from its current trading levels, reflecting the market’s pessimism toward the company’s near-term prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一下調意味着股價可能比當前交易水平下跌超過 40%，反映了市場對該公司近期前景的悲觀情緒。</p>
</div><p>The downgrade was primarily driven by concerns over market saturation in the Brazilian digital payments sector, where StoneCo operates, and the expectation of a substantial slowdown in payment volume growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下調主要是由於對 StoneCo 所在的巴西數字支付行業市場飽和的擔憂，以及對支付量增長大幅放緩的預期。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley’s outlook starkly contrasts the broader consensus, which had anticipated continued double-digit growth in StoneCo’s net income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的展望與廣泛共識形成鮮明對比，後者預計 StoneCo 的淨收入將繼續保持兩位數增長。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley’s downgrade comes when the firm believes Brazil’s digital payments market has matured, reducing opportunities for further expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的下調是因為該公司認為巴西數字支付市場已經成熟，減少了進一步擴張的機會。</p>
</div><p>The analyst expressed concerns about the sustainability of StoneCo’s profitability, highlighting that merchant acquiring growth and overall profitability might face significant headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師對 StoneCo 的盈利能力的可持續性表示擔憂，強調商户收購增長和整體盈利能力可能面臨重大阻力。</p>
</div><p>The report suggested that the market underestimates the challenges posed by this saturation and the pressure it could exert on StoneCo’s earnings over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告指出，市場低估了這種飽和狀態帶來的挑戰，以及在未來幾年可能對 StoneCo 盈利造成的壓力。</p>
</div><p>Consequently, Morgan Stanley has adjusted its long-term earnings estimates for StoneCo significantly downward, with expectations now standing 50%-60% below consensus estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，摩根士丹利已經大幅調低了對 StoneCo 的長期盈利預期，預期現在已經低於共識預期 50%-60%。</p>
</div><h2>StoneCo’s Q2 earnings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>StoneCo 第二季度盈利</h2>
</div><p>This downgrade overshadowed what had been a relatively strong performance in StoneCo’s second quarter of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一下調掩蓋了 StoneCo 在 2024 年第二季度表現相對強勁的事實。</p>
</div><p>The company reported revenue of R$3.21 billion (approximately $586 million), which exceeded analysts’ expectations and marked an 8.5% year-over-year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司報告的營收為 32.1 億雷亞爾（約合 5.86 億美元），超出分析師預期，同比增長 8.5%。</p>
</div><p>This growth was driven by a robust 10.6% increase in financial services revenues, reflecting consistent growth in the active client base and higher client monetization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一增長是由金融服務收入強勁增長 10.6% 推動的，反映了活躍客户羣體的持續增長和更高的客户貨幣化。</p>
</div><p>StoneCo’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) also beat estimates, coming in at R$1.61, up from R$0.98 in the same quarter last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneCo 的調整後每股收益也超出預期，達到 1.61 雷亞爾，高於去年同期的 0.98 雷亞爾。</p>
</div><p>The company’s total payment volume (TPV) grew impressively, rising by 21.6% year-over-year to R$126.1 billion, with the MSMB segment contributing significantly to this growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的總支付量（TPV）增長迅猛，同比增長 21.6%，達到 1261 億雷亞爾，其中 MSMB 部門對這一增長做出了重要貢獻。</p>
</div><p>Despite these positive results, concerns remain regarding the company’s cost structure which has been under pressure, with costs rising sharply by 22.8% year-over-year, driven by higher provisions for doubtful debts and increased logistics and technology expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管取得了這些積極成果，但人們仍然擔憂公司的成本結構受到壓力，成本同比大幅上升 22.8%，主要是由於對壞賬準備金和物流、技術支出增加。</p>
</div><p>While the company has reduced administrative expenses by 15.9%, the pressure on margins remains a critical concern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然公司已經將行政費用降低了 15.9%，但利潤率的壓力仍然是一個關鍵問題。</p>
</div><p>The adjusted EBITDA margin, though slightly improved to 49.5%, reflects these cost challenges, which could persist if the company faces headwinds in its core markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率雖然略有改善，達到 49.5%，但反映了這些成本挑戰，如果公司在核心市場面臨阻力，這種挑戰可能會持續。</p>
</div><h2>StoneCo’s non-performing loans</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>StoneCo 的不良貸款</h2>
</div><p>One of the most troubling aspects of StoneCo’s recent performance has been the increase in non-performing loans (NPLs).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneCo 最近表現中最令人擔憂的一個方面是不良貸款的增加。</p>
</div><p>The company’s credit portfolio saw a rise in NPLs, particularly in the 15-90 days and &gt;90 days categories, which increased by 66 and 113 basis points, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的信貸組合中不良貸款增加，特別是在 15-90 天和超過 90 天的類別中，分別增加了 66 和 113 個基點。</p>
</div><p>This uptick in NPLs is worrying, especially given StoneCo’s history of challenges with its credit operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不良貸款的上升令人擔憂，特別是考慮到 StoneCo 在信貸業務方面存在挑戰的歷史。</p>
</div><p>The rising defaults could indicate underlying issues with credit quality, potentially leading to higher future losses, which may further strain the company’s financial health.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不斷增加的違約可能表明信貸質量存在潛在問題，可能導致未來更高的損失，進一步加劇公司的財務健康狀況。</p>
</div><p>StoneCo’s management has taken steps to mitigate some of these challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneCo 管理層已經採取措施緩解其中一些挑戰。</p>
</div><p>The company has focused on expanding its higher-margin products and improving cost management processes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司專注於擴大高利潤產品並改善成本管理流程。</p>
</div><p>This strategy has helped StoneCo maintain its profitability, as evidenced by the 54% year-over-year increase in net income during the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一戰略已經幫助 StoneCo 維持盈利能力，正如第二季度淨收入同比增長 54% 所證明的那樣。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the company’s ongoing share buyback program, supported by a solid cash position, could provide some support to the stock price in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，公司正在進行的股票回購計劃，得到了堅實的現金頭寸支持，可能在短期內為股價提供一些支撐。</p>
</div><p>However, these efforts might not be enough to offset the broader challenges facing the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這些努力可能不足以抵消公司面臨的更廣泛挑戰。</p>
</div><p>The downgrade from Morgan Stanley reflects a growing skepticism about StoneCo’s ability to navigate the increasingly competitive and saturated Brazilian payments market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的下調反映了對 StoneCo 在越來越競爭激烈和市場飽和的巴西支付市場中導航能力的日益懷疑。</p>
</div><h2>StoneCo’s valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>StoneCo 的估值</h2>
</div><p>From a valuation perspective, StoneCo’s current metrics do not provide much comfort to investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從估值角度來看，StoneCo 當前的指標並未給投資者帶來太多安慰。</p>
</div><p>Despite the recent decline in stock price, the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains close to the sector average, offering little margin of safety.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管股價最近下跌，但公司的市盈率仍接近行業平均水平，提供的安全邊際不大。</p>
</div><p>The stock’s valuation appears stretched, particularly when adjusted for the expected slowdown in growth and profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票估值似乎有些過高，特別是考慮到預期增長和盈利能力放緩。</p>
</div><p>While the company has shown resilience in maintaining revenue growth, the combination of rising costs, increasing NPLs, and a saturated market environment poses significant risks to its long-term valuation prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管公司在維持營收增長方面表現出堅韌性，但成本上升、不良貸款增加和市場環境飽和的結合對其長期估值前景構成重大風險。</p>
</div><p>To gain deeper insights into what might come next for StoneCo’s stock, it’s essential to turn to the technical indicators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要深入瞭解 StoneCo 股票未來可能走勢，有必要轉向技術指標。</p>
</div><p>By analyzing the charts, we can explore whether the recent downdraft is signaling further declines or if there’s potential for a rebound, providing a clearer view of the stock’s potential trajectory in the coming weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過分析圖表，我們可以探討最近的下跌是否預示着進一步下滑，或者是否存在反彈的可能性，為未來幾周內股票潛在軌跡提供更清晰的視角。</p>
</div><h2>StoneCo: Technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>StoneCo：技術分析</h2>
</div><p>StoneCo’s stock more than doubled in price between October and December last year but started drifting downward since the start of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneCo 股價在去年 10 月至 12 月間翻了一番，但自今年年初以來開始下滑。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/STNE_2024-09-05_19-17-25-1024x555.png" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/STNE_2024-09-05_19-17-25-1024x555.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The stock stands at a critical juncture today as it opened below its medium-term support near $11.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，股價站在一個關鍵時刻，因為它低於 11.50 美元附近的中期支撐位開盤。</p>
</div><p>Unless the stock manages to reclaim that level decisively and give a weekly closing above it, things are looking gloomy for the bulls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非股價成功收復該水平並在該水平上方周線收盤，否則對多頭來説情況看起來暗淡。</p>
</div><p>If the stock doesn’t reclaim that level, it can fall back to $9.5 levels where it took support last year multiple times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果股價未能收復該水平，它可能回落至去年多次得到支撐的 9.5 美元水平。</p>
</div><p>Traders looking to short the stock have a low-risk high-reward opportunity right now as they can short the stock near $11.7 with a stop loss near $12.24 and a profit target of $9.5.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，尋求做空該股票的交易者有一個低風險高回報的機會，因為他們可以在 11.7 美元附近做空該股票，設定止損位在 12.24 美元附近，利潤目標為 9.5 美元。</p>
</div><p>The post StoneCo’s stock is crashing today: Here's why appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneCo 股票今天暴跌：原因在這裏</p>
</div>

StoneCo 的股票今天暴跌：以下是原因