<p><strong>Zscaler</strong>（ZS -3.37%）的股價在 9 月 4 日公佈最新財報後下跌了 19%。截至 2024 財年第四季度（截至 7 月 31 日），這家網絡安全公司的營收同比增長 30%，達到 5.93 億美元，超出分析師預期 2,500 萬美元。調整後的每股收益（EPS）增長 38%，達到 0.88 美元，超出共識預期 0.19 美元。</p>
<p>這些主要數據看起來健康，但其業績展望並未打動投資者。讓我們看看這家不受青睞的高增長股票在今年下跌近 30% 後是否仍值得購買。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODk4OTUvaXQtc2VjdXJpdHktZW1wbG95ZWUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODk4OTUvaXQtc2VjdXJpdHktZW1wbG95ZWUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Zscaler 的高增長時代即將結束</h2>
<p>Zscaler 開發 “零信任” 服務，將每個人，包括公司的高管，視為潛在威脅。它只提供基於雲的工具，不需要任何現場設備。這種輕量化的方法通常比依賴設備的服務更便宜、更具黏性，並且更容易隨着組織的擴張而擴展。</p>
<p>Zscaler 於 2018 年上市。從 2019 財年到 2024 財年，營收以 48% 的複合年增長率增長。這一增長是由零信任和基於雲的網絡安全市場的快速擴張推動的。但在過去一年中，其計費額和總營收的增長有所放緩。</p>
<p>|</p>
<p>指標 |</p>
<p>2023 年第四季度 |</p>
<p>2024 年第一季度 |</p>
<p>2024 年第二季度 |</p>
<p>2024 年第三季度 |</p>
<p>2024 年第四季度 |
|</p>
<p>計費額增長（同比）|</p>
<p>38% |</p>
<p>34% |</p>
<p>27% |</p>
<p>30% |</p>
<p>27% |
|</p>
<p>營收增長（同比）|</p>
<p>43% |</p>
<p>40% |</p>
<p>35% |</p>
<p>32% |</p>
<p>30% |</p>
<p>數據來源：Zscaler。同比 = 同比增長率。</p>
<p>Zscaler 在 2024 財年營收增長 34%，但預計 2025 財年僅增長 20% 至 21%。這將是自首次公開募股（IPO）以來最慢的年度營收增長率。主要歸因於宏觀環境的阻力，導致更多公司審視其軟件支出。</p>
<p>但它也可能面臨來自更大、更多元化的網絡安全公司（如 <strong>CrowdStrike</strong>（納斯達克股票代碼：CRWD）和 <strong>Palo Alto Networks</strong>（納斯達克股票代碼：PANW））更激烈的競爭，這兩家公司都在將類似的零信任工具整合到其端點安全平台中。分析師預計，從 2024 財年到 2026 財年，Zscaler 的營收將以 21% 的複合年增長率增長。</p>
<h2>隨着增長放緩，支出加大</h2>
<p>自上市以來，Zscaler 在普遍公認的會計原則（GAAP）基礎上一直未盈利。但在 2024 財年，其非通用會計原則運營利潤率擴大了 5 個百分點至 20%，非通用 EPS 增長了 78%。</p>
<p>然而，預計在 2025 財年，隨着擴大銷售和營銷團隊以追求新客户，其非通用 EPS 將下降 10% 至 12%。分析師此前預計增長 4%。</p>
<p>這種比預期更陡的下降使投資者感到不安，因為它與營收增長放緩同時發生，並暗示其正在失去定價權。這也意味着 Zscaler 正在飽和其零信任領域，可能需要通過提供額外的網絡安全服務來積極擴展其生態系統以保持增長。但這樣做可能會使其利潤率受到打擊，使公司與 CrowdStrike 和 Palo Alto 等更大的公司競爭。</p>
<h2>關注其債務和稀釋情況</h2>
<p>截至 2024 財年末，Zscaler 的債務資產比率為 2.7。這大約是 2018 財年末 0.9 倍的三倍。過去六年中，其股份數量增加了 24%。</p>
<p>即使在最新的財報後下跌之後，Zscaler 看起來並不便宜，今年調整後的收益為 57 倍。CrowdStrike，儘管在 7 月觸發了災難性的 IT 中斷，但仍然增長更快，交易倍數為 70 倍。Palo Alto 增長速度低於這兩家公司，前瞻倍數為 54 倍。與 Zscaler 不同，CrowdStrike 和 Palo Alto 根據 GAAP 標準均已實現穩定盈利。</p>
<h2>現在是購買 Zscaler 的合適時機嗎？</h2>
<p>Zscaler 的營收增長放緩、支出上升、高槓杆、持續稀釋和溢價估值使其成為一隻難以推薦的股票。其內部人士在過去 12 個月中賣出的股票數量是他們購買的股票數量的 6 倍多。</p>
<p>Zscaler 仍在增長，但在未來幾年將面臨更嚴峻的宏觀和競爭挑戰。這就是為什麼在其盈利增長穩定並其估值降至更可持續水平之前，我不會碰它的股票。</p>

<p>Zscaler 的股價在令人失望的財報後下跌了 19%，今年已累計下跌近 30%。這家網絡安全公司報告稱，其營收同比增長了 30%，但未來增長前景低於預期，預計 2025 財年僅增長 20-21%。Zscaler 尚未實現盈利，面臨着高債務水平和不斷下滑的每股收益，因為公司在營銷方面投入巨資。分析師們對其日益激烈的競爭和負面的內部交易趨勢感到擔憂，這使得在當前估值水平下難以推薦購買該股</p>

<p><strong>Zscaler</strong>'s (ZS -3.37%) stock price sank 19% on Sept. 4 after its latest earnings report came out. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, which ended on July 31, the cybersecurity company's revenue rose 30% year over year to $593 million and exceeded analysts' expectations by $25 million. Its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew 38% to $0.88 and cleared the consensus forecast by $0.19.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Zscaler</strong>（ZS -3.37%）的股價在 9 月 4 日公佈最新財報後下跌了 19%。截至 2024 財年第四季度（截至 7 月 31 日），這家網絡安全公司的營收同比增長 30%，達到 5.93 億美元，超出分析師預期 2,500 萬美元。調整後的每股收益（EPS）增長 38%，達到 0.88 美元，超出共識預期 0.19 美元。</p>
</div><p>Those headline numbers seemed healthy, but its guidance didn't impress the bulls. Let's see if this out-of-favor hypergrowth stock is still worth buying after declining nearly 30% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些主要數據看起來健康，但其業績展望並未打動投資者。讓我們看看這家不受青睞的高增長股票在今年下跌近 30% 後是否仍值得購買。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODk4OTUvaXQtc2VjdXJpdHktZW1wbG95ZWUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F789895%2Fit-security-employee.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Zscaler's hypergrowth days are ending</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Zscaler 的高增長時代即將結束</h2>
</div><p>Zscaler develops &#34;zero trust&#34; services, which treat everyone, including a company's top executives, as a potential threat. It only provides its tools as cloud-native services, which don't require any on-site appliances. That lightweight approach is usually cheaper, stickier, and easier to scale than appliance-powered services as an organization expands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zscaler 開發 “零信任” 服務，將每個人，包括公司的高管，視為潛在威脅。它只提供基於雲的工具，不需要任何現場設備。這種輕量化的方法通常比依賴設備的服務更便宜、更具黏性，並且更容易隨着組織的擴張而擴展。</p>
</div><p>Zscaler went public in 2018. From fiscal 2019 to fiscal 2024, revenue grew at a compound annual rate of 48%. That growth was driven by the rapid expansion of the zero trust and cloud-native cybersecurity markets. But over the past year, its growth in calculated billings and total revenue cooled off.</p>
<p>|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zscaler 於 2018 年上市。從 2019 財年到 2024 財年，營收以 48% 的複合年增長率增長。這一增長是由零信任和基於雲的網絡安全市場的快速擴張推動的。但在過去一年中，其計費額和總營收的增長有所放緩。</p>
<p>|</p>
</div><p>Metric |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>指標 |</p>
</div><p>Q4 2023 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年第四季度 |</p>
</div><p>Q1 2024 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年第一季度 |</p>
</div><p>Q2 2024 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年第二季度 |</p>
</div><p>Q3 2024 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年第三季度 |</p>
</div><p>Q4 2024 |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年第四季度 |
|</p>
</div><p>Calculated billings growth (YOY) |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>計費額增長（同比）|</p>
</div><p>38% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>38% |</p>
</div><p>34% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>34% |</p>
</div><p>27% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>27% |</p>
</div><p>30% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30% |</p>
</div><p>27% |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>27% |
|</p>
</div><p>Revenue growth (YOY) |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>營收增長（同比）|</p>
</div><p>43% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>43% |</p>
</div><p>40% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>40% |</p>
</div><p>35% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>35% |</p>
</div><p>32% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>32% |</p>
</div><p>30% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: Zscaler. YOY = Year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：Zscaler。同比 = 同比增長率。</p>
</div><p>Zscaler's revenue rose 34% in fiscal 2024, but it only expects 20% to 21% growth in fiscal 2025. That would represent its slowest annual revenue growth rate since its initial public offering (IPO). It mainly attributed that slowdown to the macro headwinds, which are driving more companies to scrutinize their software spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zscaler 在 2024 財年營收增長 34%，但預計 2025 財年僅增長 20% 至 21%。這將是自首次公開募股（IPO）以來最慢的年度營收增長率。主要歸因於宏觀環境的阻力，導致更多公司審視其軟件支出。</p>
</div><p>But it could also be facing tougher competition from bigger and more diversified cybersecurity companies like <strong>CrowdStrike</strong>(NASDAQ: CRWD) and <strong>Palo Alto Networks</strong>(NASDAQ: PANW), which are both integrating similar zero trust tools into their endpoint security platforms. From fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2026, analysts expect Zscaler's revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 21%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但它也可能面臨來自更大、更多元化的網絡安全公司（如 <strong>CrowdStrike</strong>（納斯達克股票代碼：CRWD）和 <strong>Palo Alto Networks</strong>（納斯達克股票代碼：PANW））更激烈的競爭，這兩家公司都在將類似的零信任工具整合到其端點安全平台中。分析師預計，從 2024 財年到 2026 財年，Zscaler 的營收將以 21% 的複合年增長率增長。</p>
</div><h2>It's ramping up its spending as its growth cools off</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>隨着增長放緩，支出加大</h2>
</div><p>Zscaler has stayed unprofitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis ever since its IPO. But in fiscal 2024, its non-GAAP operating margin expanded 5 percentage points to 20% as its non-GAAP EPS increased 78%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自上市以來，Zscaler 在普遍公認的會計原則（GAAP）基礎上一直未盈利。但在 2024 財年，其非通用會計原則運營利潤率擴大了 5 個百分點至 20%，非通用 EPS 增長了 78%。</p>
</div><p>However, it expects its non-GAAP EPS to decline 10% to 12% in fiscal 2025 as it expands its sales and marketing teams to pursue new customers. Analysts had previously anticipated 4% growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，預計在 2025 財年，隨着擴大銷售和營銷團隊以追求新客户，其非通用 EPS 將下降 10% 至 12%。分析師此前預計增長 4%。</p>
</div><p>That steeper-than-expected decline rattled the bulls because it coincided with its slowing revenue growth and suggested it was losing its pricing power. It also implies Zscaler is saturating its zero-trust niche and might need to aggressively expand its ecosystem with additional cybersecurity services to keep growing. But doing so could crush its margins by pitting the company against bigger companies like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種比預期更陡的下降使投資者感到不安，因為它與營收增長放緩同時發生，並暗示其正在失去定價權。這也意味着 Zscaler 正在飽和其零信任領域，可能需要通過提供額外的網絡安全服務來積極擴展其生態系統以保持增長。但這樣做可能會使其利潤率受到打擊，使公司與 CrowdStrike 和 Palo Alto 等更大的公司競爭。</p>
</div><h2>Pay attention to its debt and dilution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>關注其債務和稀釋情況</h2>
</div><p>Zscaler had a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.7 at the end of fiscal 2024. That's roughly triple its debt-to-equity ratio of 0.9 at the end of fiscal 2018. It also increased its share count by 24% over the past six years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2024 財年末，Zscaler 的債務資產比率為 2.7。這大約是 2018 財年末 0.9 倍的三倍。過去六年中，其股份數量增加了 24%。</p>
</div><p>Even after its latest post-earnings decline, Zscaler doesn't look cheap at 57 times this year's adjusted earnings. CrowdStrike, which is still growing faster even after triggering a disastrous IT outage in July, trades at 70 times forward earnings. Palo Alto, which is growing slower than both companies, has a lower forward multiple of 54. Unlike Zscaler, both CrowdStrike and Palo Alto are firmly profitable by GAAP measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在最新的財報後下跌之後，Zscaler 看起來並不便宜，今年調整後的收益為 57 倍。CrowdStrike，儘管在 7 月觸發了災難性的 IT 中斷，但仍然增長更快，交易倍數為 70 倍。Palo Alto 增長速度低於這兩家公司，前瞻倍數為 54 倍。與 Zscaler 不同，CrowdStrike 和 Palo Alto 根據 GAAP 標準均已實現穩定盈利。</p>
</div><h2>Is it the right time to buy Zscaler?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在是購買 Zscaler 的合適時機嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Zscaler's cooling revenue growth, rising expenses, high leverage, ongoing dilution, and premium valuation all make it a tough stock to recommend. Its insiders also sold more than 6 times as many shares as they bought over the past 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zscaler 的營收增長放緩、支出上升、高槓杆、持續稀釋和溢價估值使其成為一隻難以推薦的股票。其內部人士在過去 12 個月中賣出的股票數量是他們購買的股票數量的 6 倍多。</p>
</div><p>Zscaler is still growing, but it will face tougher macro and competitive challenges over the next few years. That's why I wouldn't touch its stock until its earnings growth stabilizes and its valuations cool off to more sustainable levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zscaler 仍在增長，但在未來幾年將面臨更嚴峻的宏觀和競爭挑戰。這就是為什麼在其盈利增長穩定並其估值降至更可持續水平之前，我不會碰它的股票。</p>
</div>

2024 年下跌近 30%：Zscaler 的股票是否值得購買？