<p>今年表現最差的大市值股之一的最大阻礙因素正在逐漸消退。<strong>天狼星 XM 廣播控股公司</strong>(SIRI) 已完成與傳媒大亨約翰·馬龍控股的衞星廣播平台的合併。<strong>自由天狼星 XM 集團</strong> 的追蹤股曾經是一個干擾因素，並且在歷史上以較大折扣交易，但在週一收盤後正式併入主公司。</p>
<p>可能會有一些暫時的混亂。週二開盤時進行的 1 比 10 的股票合併可能會令人震驚，特別是考慮到大多數選擇這種通常是絕望之舉的上市資格目的的公司的命運。股票數量本身並沒有增加，但由於天狼星 XM 的更大流通股，可能會影響短期交易行為。過去兩年中持有追蹤股以賺取逐漸減少的折扣的套利者現在可能會出售，因為使命已經完成。</p>
<p>目前發生了很多事情。對於備受煎熬的天狼星 XM 股東來説，等到塵埃落定時應該是值得的。讓我們深入探討為什麼這可能是機會主義者一直在等待的底部。</p>
<h2>一個新的聲音</h2>
<p>這不是天狼星 XM 第一次通過合併兩個公開交易實體來簡化情況。15 年前，直到監管機構批准了天狼星和競爭對手 XM 的合併，才有了兩家增長但無利潤的衞星廣播提供商，從而創造了衞星廣播壟斷。天狼星 XM 不再是增長股。在過去 10 年中，它沒有實現有機的兩位數營收增長。然而，該平台已經成為一個可預測盈利的媒體巨頭。</p>
<p>今年股價下跌了 51%，使其成為 2024 年市值超過 100 億美元的僅有五隻股票之一，股價下跌超過一半。追蹤股的期待已久並沒有激發投資社區的興奮。自今年年初以來，業務也並沒有出現實質性惡化。業務模式是一個長期逐漸消退的廣播軌道。沒有人會對營收增長感到驚訝，現在訂閲人數也開始略微下降。這並不意味着天狼星 XM 今年的市值應該減半，或者其負債累累的企業價值在此期間下降超過 25%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTAyNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtODIxMjI1NDM0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTAyNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtODIxMjI1NDM0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>一個不完美股票的完美價格</h2>
<p>天狼星 XM 在週二重申了早前的指引。它繼續預計 2024 年營收為 87.5 億美元，調整後的息税折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）為 27 億美元。它將自由現金流預期從 12 億美元調整為 10 億美元，但這 2000 萬美元的減少與交易和自由天狼星 XM 控股公司的歷史性流出有關。業務本身並沒有受損。</p>
<p>收入投資者將注意到豐厚的股息將繼續發放。股票拆分適當地將每股股息調整為每年約 0.27 美元。天狼星 XM 的股息率仍然略高於 4%，就像週一一樣。</p>
<p>問題仍然存在。天狼星 XM 擁有 3300 萬訂户，但比年初減少了 61.8 萬個賬户。流失率接近歷史最低，但天狼星 XM 無法吸引年輕司機像一代前簽約的人那樣熱情地加入平台。這並不意味着事情會以糟糕的方式結束。</p>
<p>天狼星 XM 有時間。如果營收和訂户緩慢減少，這種可擴展的商業模式的盈利能力將受到考驗，但創造 10 位數的自由現金流使其有時間做正確的事情，並有能力通過收購重返增長。</p>
<p>估值仍然很合理。天狼星 XM 的市盈率不到 9 倍。分析師們預計 2025 年會出現營收和利潤增長，即使在這個對股票而言充滿悲觀情緒的環境中，這可能看起來是錯誤的。天狼星 XM 是一個便宜且不同的媒體股，市場在 2024 年已經忘記了它。一旦週二的股票拆分的最初鬱悶過去，現在可能是再次記住這個特定巨頭的好時機。</p>

天狼星XM廣播

<p>天狼星 XM 廣播已完成與約翰·馬龍持有的股份合併，吸收了自由天狼星 XM 集團的追蹤股。儘管今年股價下跌了 51%，但該公司仍保持着盈利模式，擁有 3300 萬訂户。最近進行的 1 比 10 的股票逆向拆分可能會引起混淆，但分析師預測到 2025 年將會恢復增長。目前股價不到盈利的 9 倍，使其成為投資者的吸引選項，因為該公司繼續提供超過 4% 的股息</p>

<p>The biggest thing holding back one of this year's worst large-cap performers is now fading in the rearview mirror. <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>(SIRI) has now completed its combination with media mogul John Malone's controlling stake in the satellite radio platform. The <strong>Liberty Sirius XM Group</strong> tracking shares that were a distraction and historically traded at a wide discount to the common shares were officially absorbed into the main company after Monday's market close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年表現最差的大市值股之一的最大阻礙因素正在逐漸消退。<strong>天狼星 XM 廣播控股公司</strong>(SIRI) 已完成與傳媒大亨約翰·馬龍控股的衞星廣播平台的合併。<strong>自由天狼星 XM 集團</strong> 的追蹤股曾經是一個干擾因素，並且在歷史上以較大折扣交易，但在週一收盤後正式併入主公司。</p>
</div><p>There will be some transitory confusion. The 1-for-10 reverse stock split that took place at Tuesday's opening may prove jarring, especially given the poor fate of most companies that have chosen to go this typically desperate route for listing eligibility purposes. The share count itself isn't expanding, but with a larger float of Sirius XM it could impact near-term trading behavior on the long and short side of the trade. Some arbs that were in the tracking shares to cash in on the gradually thinning discount over the last two years could sell now that the mission is complete.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能會有一些暫時的混亂。週二開盤時進行的 1 比 10 的股票合併可能會令人震驚，特別是考慮到大多數選擇這種通常是絕望之舉的上市資格目的的公司的命運。股票數量本身並沒有增加，但由於天狼星 XM 的更大流通股，可能會影響短期交易行為。過去兩年中持有追蹤股以賺取逐漸減少的折扣的套利者現在可能會出售，因為使命已經完成。</p>
</div><p>There's a lot happening right now. It should be worth it for suffering Sirius XM shareholders by the time the dust clears. Let's dive into why this could be the bottom that opportunists were waiting for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前發生了很多事情。對於備受煎熬的天狼星 XM 股東來説，等到塵埃落定時應該是值得的。讓我們深入探討為什麼這可能是機會主義者一直在等待的底部。</p>
</div><h2>A new sound</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一個新的聲音</h2>
</div><p>This isn't the first time that Sirius XM has tried to streamline a situation by combining two publicly traded entities. There were two growing but profitless satellite radio providers until regulators approved the combination of Sirius and rival XM to create a monopoly in satellite radio 15 years ago. Sirius XM is no longer a growth stock. It hasn't posted organic double-digit revenue growth in 10 years. However, the platform has become a predictably profitable media giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這不是天狼星 XM 第一次通過合併兩個公開交易實體來簡化情況。15 年前，直到監管機構批准了天狼星和競爭對手 XM 的合併，才有了兩家增長但無利潤的衞星廣播提供商，從而創造了衞星廣播壟斷。天狼星 XM 不再是增長股。在過去 10 年中，它沒有實現有機的兩位數營收增長。然而，該平台已經成為一個可預測盈利的媒體巨頭。</p>
</div><p>The stock has shed 51% of its value this year, making it one of just five stocks with market caps north of $10 billion to be cut by more than half in 2024. The long-anticipated end of the tracking shares hasn't excited the investing community. It's also not as if the business has deteriorated substantially since the start of this year. The business model is a radio track that's been slowly fading out for a long time. No one is surprised by revenue growth and now the subscriber count turning marginally negative. It doesn't mean that Sirius XM's market cap deserves to be halved this year or its debt-saddled enterprise value off by more than 25% in that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年股價下跌了 51%，使其成為 2024 年市值超過 100 億美元的僅有五隻股票之一，股價下跌超過一半。追蹤股的期待已久並沒有激發投資社區的興奮。自今年年初以來，業務也並沒有出現實質性惡化。業務模式是一個長期逐漸消退的廣播軌道。沒有人會對營收增長感到驚訝，現在訂閲人數也開始略微下降。這並不意味着天狼星 XM 今年的市值應該減半，或者其負債累累的企業價值在此期間下降超過 25%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTAyNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtODIxMjI1NDM0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F790267%2Fgettyimages-821225434.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A perfect price for an imperfect stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一個不完美股票的完美價格</h2>
</div><p>Sirius XM reiterated its earlier guidance on Tuesday. It continues to model $8.75 billion in revenue and $2.7 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in 2024. It did adjust its free-cash-flow projection from $1.2 billion to $1 billion, but that $200 million haircut is related to the transaction and historical outflows at Liberty Sirius XM Holdings. The business itself is not impaired.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天狼星 XM 在週二重申了早前的指引。它繼續預計 2024 年營收為 87.5 億美元，調整後的息税折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）為 27 億美元。它將自由現金流預期從 12 億美元調整為 10 億美元，但這 2000 萬美元的減少與交易和自由天狼星 XM 控股公司的歷史性流出有關。業務本身並沒有受損。</p>
</div><p>Income investors will note that the chunky dividend will continue. The reverse split is appropriately tweaking the per-share payout tenfold to roughly $0.27 a share over the course of the year. Sirius XM still yields just over 4% the way it did on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收入投資者將注意到豐厚的股息將繼續發放。股票拆分適當地將每股股息調整為每年約 0.27 美元。天狼星 XM 的股息率仍然略高於 4%，就像週一一樣。</p>
</div><p>The question marks also remain. Sirius XM has a whopping 33 million subscribers, but it has 618,000 fewer accounts than it had when the year began. Churn is near historic lows, but Sirius XM can't get younger drivers to hop on the platform with the same gusto as those who signed on a generation ago. It doesn't mean that things will end badly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題仍然存在。天狼星 XM 擁有 3300 萬訂户，但比年初減少了 61.8 萬個賬户。流失率接近歷史最低，但天狼星 XM 無法吸引年輕司機像一代前簽約的人那樣熱情地加入平台。這並不意味着事情會以糟糕的方式結束。</p>
</div><p>Sirius XM has time. The profitability of this scalable business model will be tested if revenue and subscribers shrink slowly, but generating 10-figure free cash flow gives it time to get it right and the means to buy its way back to growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天狼星 XM 有時間。如果營收和訂户緩慢減少，這種可擴展的商業模式的盈利能力將受到考驗，但創造 10 位數的自由現金流使其有時間做正確的事情，並有能力通過收購重返增長。</p>
</div><p>The valuation continues to be kind. Sirius XM is trading for less than 9 times earnings. Analysts see a return to top- and bottom-line growth in 2025, even if that may seem misguided in this otherwise bearish climate for the stock. Sirius XM is a cheap and differentiated media stock that the market has forgotten about in 2024. As soon as the initial malaise of Tuesday's reverse split passes, it could be a good time to remember this particular titan again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值仍然很合理。天狼星 XM 的市盈率不到 9 倍。分析師們預計 2025 年會出現營收和利潤增長，即使在這個對股票而言充滿悲觀情緒的環境中，這可能看起來是錯誤的。天狼星 XM 是一個便宜且不同的媒體股，市場在 2024 年已經忘記了它。一旦週二的股票拆分的最初鬱悶過去，現在可能是再次記住這個特定巨頭的好時機。</p>
</div>

天狼星 XM 的股票是否終於準備好在 2024 年反彈？