<p>消費品股票，如可口可樂（KO）、百事可樂（PEP）和寶潔（PG），在宏觀經濟不確定時期往往表現出色，因為它們具有反週期和防禦性質。雖然我對這三家行業巨頭保持看漲態度，但我將使用 TipRanks 的股票比較工具來解釋為什麼基於一些關鍵因素，我認為 KO 目前是這三者中最佳選擇。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-17.55-1024x416.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-17.55-1024x416.jpeg"/></p>
<h2><strong>可口可樂（KO）</strong></h2>
<p>從可口可樂開始，我對該公司的看漲論點突出了其反週期韌性，特別是在經濟不確定和高利率時期，例如我們目前正在經歷的時期。</p>
<p>KO 的股價在整個年份表現出色，尤其是在公司於七月份報告第二季度收益後，上漲超過 20%。可口可樂意外地報告第二季度收入增長了 3%，與預期下降相反。儘管消費者支出趨勢看似疲弱且價格上漲，但該公司還是提高了年度指引。</p>
<p>這家標誌性飲料公司報告價格/混合增長了 9%，表明其在提高價格或銷售更高比例的高端產品方面取得成功。可口可樂現在預測全年有機銷售增長率為 9% 到 10%，略高於先前的預測。此外，它預計調整後的利潤增長為 5% 到 6%，高於先前的 4% 到 5% 的增長預期。</p>
<h2><strong>KO 的估值、股息和華爾街共識</strong></h2>
<p>即使接近歷史高位，可口可樂的溢價估值看似合理，符合看漲前景。儘管其歷史高價水平，可口可樂股票的前瞻市盈率為 25 倍，約高出行業平均水平 40%，但僅高出其自身五年曆史平均水平 3%。</p>
<p>該公司對於長期投資者來説仍然是一個穩定的收入投資。儘管股息率目前不到 3%，支付比率為 67.7%，但這並不一定是弱點的表現。事實上，自 2023 年 10 月以來，KO 股價已上漲近 40%，這解釋了股價與股息率之間的反向關係。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.03-1024x225.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.03-1024x225.jpeg"/></p>
<p>此外，根據華爾街分析師 19 個評級中的 12 個買入建議，KO 股票持有 “中等買入” 共識評級，為飲料公司設定了 70.56 美元的平均目標價。儘管存在樂觀情緒，但這一目標價基於最新股價顯示了 0.82% 的下行風險。</p>
<h2><strong>百事可樂（PEP）</strong></h2>
<p>與其主要競爭對手可口可樂不同，百事可樂今年的表現更加波動。這家零食食品和飲料公司正在應對艱難的比較和消費者支出疲軟的影響。最近影響百事可樂防禦性看漲論點的關鍵因素之一是其第二季度業績，尤其是在 Frito-Lay 部門內的營收表現不佳。</p>
<p>該公司報告北美零食類別銷量下降了 4%，部分原因是 GLP-1 藥物的出現，這些藥物抑制食慾，可能導致零食購買減少。</p>
<p>此外，百事可樂報告其產品類別和地理區域的有效淨定價增長了 5%，導致總有機銷量下降了 3%。百事可樂已經連續一年半提高價格。隨着持續增加的有效淨定價，消費者現在開始收縮。這種轉變代表了今年的一個重大變化。</p>
<h2><strong>PEP 的估值、股息和華爾街共識</strong></h2>
<p>在考慮其當前估值時，將百事可樂納入投資組合的理由變得更加強有力。該股票的前瞻市盈率為 21.7 倍，相比其五年曆史平均水平，折讓了 10.4%。</p>
<p>作為一項收入投資，百事可樂的股息率略低於 3%，但比其五年平均水平高約 7.5%。該公司在第一季度將股息提高了 7%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.01-1024x230.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.01-1024x230.jpeg"/></p>
<p>最後，華爾街對百事可樂的共識是 “中等買入”。分析師意見不一，有九個買入和八個持有評級。PEP 股票的平均目標價為 186.35 美元，暗示着相對於當前價格的 4.50% 的上漲潛力。</p>
<h2><strong>寶潔（PG）</strong></h2>
<p>最後，遠離飲料巨頭，寶潔作為消費品領域的領導者，以其在各種經濟週期中的類似韌性而著稱，這是其投資論點中的一個關鍵正面因素。</p>
<p>寶潔最新數據顯示，2024 財年（截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日）標誌着其連續第六年至少實現 4% 的有機銷售增長。儘管受到消費者支出和通貨膨脹的阻力，尤其是自疫情爆發以來，PG 股價今年迄今上漲了近 20%。</p>
<p>P&amp;G 在第四季度看到了微小的收入下降。該季度的營收同比下降了 0.1%，至 205 億美元，略低於預期，引發了一波短期反應。事實上，緩慢增長一直是一個反覆出現的主題，2024 財年的有機增長率為 4%，是過去五年中最低的。</p>
<h2><strong>PG 的估值、股息和華爾街共識</strong></h2>
<p>P&amp;G 投資論點中的一個關鍵問題是其高估值，儘管這並不意味着它作為低風險投資不合理。該股票的前瞻市盈率為 25.2 倍，約高出消費品行業平均水平 40%。但即使接近歷史高位，P&amp;G 的估值僅高出其五年平均水平 2.5%。</p>
<p>在股息方面，P&amp;G 提供 2.3% 的股息率，低於可口可樂和百事可樂。此外，PG 的股息率仍然比公司五年平均水平低近 8%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.06-1024x200.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.06-1024x200.jpeg"/></p>
<p>分析師們對寶潔公司（P&amp;G）也持樂觀態度。根據 13 個買入評級和 6 個持有評級，股票獲得了 “中等買入” 共識。然而，平均股價目標為 176.50 美元，僅比最新價格上漲了 0.43%。</p>
<h2><strong>結論 – 可口可樂脱穎而出</strong></h2>
<p>儘管我對可口可樂（KO）、百事可樂（PEP）和寶潔公司（PG）的長期前景持看漲態度，並認為這三者都是平衡投資組合中值得添加的資產，但如果我今天必須選擇一個，我會選擇可口可樂。</p>
<p>儘管可口可樂的估值較高，但我認為其更強的防禦吸引力和產品戰略證明了其應獲得更高的估值倍數，特別是與百事可樂相比。最近的結果顯示，與百事可樂和寶潔公司相比，可口可樂表現出更強的抵禦消費者支出疲軟的能力。</p>
<p>披露</p>

可口可樂

<p>消費品股票如可口可樂（KO）、百事可樂（PEP）和寶潔（PG）在經濟不確定性時備受青睞。可口可樂因其強勁的第二季度業績、提高年度指引以及對高估值的樂觀前景而備受關注，被認為是最佳選擇。百事可樂面臨着消費者支出疲軟和零食銷量下降的挑戰，但其估值仍具吸引力。寶潔表現出強大的韌性，保持着持續的有機銷售增長，儘管未達到第四季度的營收預期。總體而言，KO 被推薦為這些股票中的首選</p>

<p>Consumer goods stocks like Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), and Procter &amp; Gamble (PG) tend to shine during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty due to their anti-cyclical and defensive nature. While I maintain a bullish stance on all these three industry giants, I will use TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool to explain why, based on a few key factors, I believe KO is currently the best pick among the trio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費品股票，如可口可樂（KO）、百事可樂（PEP）和寶潔（PG），在宏觀經濟不確定時期往往表現出色，因為它們具有反週期和防禦性質。雖然我對這三家行業巨頭保持看漲態度，但我將使用 TipRanks 的股票比較工具來解釋為什麼基於一些關鍵因素，我認為 KO 目前是這三者中最佳選擇。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-17.55-1024x416.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-17.55-1024x416.jpeg"/></p>
<h2><strong>Coca-Cola (KO)</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>可口可樂（KO）</strong></h2>
</div><p>Starting with Coca-Cola, my bullish thesis for the company highlights its counter-cyclical resilience, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty and high interest rates, such as those we are currently experiencing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從可口可樂開始，我對該公司的看漲論點突出了其反週期韌性，特別是在經濟不確定和高利率時期，例如我們目前正在經歷的時期。</p>
</div><p>KO’s shares have performed exceptionally well throughout the year, rising more than 20%, particularly after the company reported its Q2 earnings in July. Coca-Cola surprised the market by reporting a 3% increase in Q2 revenue, contrary to expectations of a decline. The company also raised its annual guidance despite seemingly weak consumer spending trends and price hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>KO 的股價在整個年份表現出色，尤其是在公司於七月份報告第二季度收益後，上漲超過 20%。可口可樂意外地報告第二季度收入增長了 3%，與預期下降相反。儘管消費者支出趨勢看似疲弱且價格上漲，但該公司還是提高了年度指引。</p>
</div><p>The iconic drink company reported a 9% growth in price/mix, indicating its success in either raising prices or selling a higher proportion of premium products. Coca-Cola now forecasts full-year organic sales growth of 9% to 10%, slightly above the previous forecast. Further, it expects adjusted profit growth of 5% to 6%, an increase from the earlier estimate of a 4% to 5% increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家標誌性飲料公司報告價格/混合增長了 9%，表明其在提高價格或銷售更高比例的高端產品方面取得成功。可口可樂現在預測全年有機銷售增長率為 9% 到 10%，略高於先前的預測。此外，它預計調整後的利潤增長為 5% 到 6%，高於先前的 4% 到 5% 的增長預期。</p>
</div><h2><strong>KO’s Valuation, Dividend, and Wall Street Consensus</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>KO 的估值、股息和華爾街共識</strong></h2>
</div><p>Even near its all-time high, Coca-Cola’s premium valuation appears justifiable for the bullish outlook. Despite its historically high price levels, Coca-Cola stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 25x, about 40% above the industry average but only 3% above its own five-year historical average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使接近歷史高位，可口可樂的溢價估值看似合理，符合看漲前景。儘管其歷史高價水平，可口可樂股票的前瞻市盈率為 25 倍，約高出行業平均水平 40%，但僅高出其自身五年曆史平均水平 3%。</p>
</div><p>The company also remains a solid income play for long-term investors. Although the dividend yield is currently under 3% with a payout ratio of 67.7%, this isn’t necessarily a sign of weakness. In fact, KO stock has surged almost 40% since October 2023, which explains the inverse relationship between share price and dividend yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司對於長期投資者來説仍然是一個穩定的收入投資。儘管股息率目前不到 3%，支付比率為 67.7%，但這並不一定是弱點的表現。事實上，自 2023 年 10 月以來，KO 股價已上漲近 40%，這解釋了股價與股息率之間的反向關係。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.03-1024x225.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.03-1024x225.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Moreover, KO stock holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 12 out of 19 Buy recommendations from Wall Street analysts, with an average price target of $70.56 for the beverage company. Despite the optimism, this price target suggests a downside of 0.82% based on the latest share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，根據華爾街分析師 19 個評級中的 12 個買入建議，KO 股票持有 “中等買入” 共識評級，為飲料公司設定了 70.56 美元的平均目標價。儘管存在樂觀情緒，但這一目標價基於最新股價顯示了 0.82% 的下行風險。</p>
</div><h2><strong>PepsiCo (PEP)</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>百事可樂（PEP）</strong></h2>
</div><p>Unlike its main rival Coca-Cola, PepsiCo has experienced more erratic performance this year. The snack food and beverage company is grappling with tough comparisons and the effects of weak consumer spending. A key point that has recently influenced PepsiCo’s defensive bullish thesis relates to its Q2 results, which fell short on the top line, particularly within the Frito-Lay segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與其主要競爭對手可口可樂不同，百事可樂今年的表現更加波動。這家零食食品和飲料公司正在應對艱難的比較和消費者支出疲軟的影響。最近影響百事可樂防禦性看漲論點的關鍵因素之一是其第二季度業績，尤其是在 Frito-Lay 部門內的營收表現不佳。</p>
</div><p>The company reported a 4% volume drop in the North American snacking category, partly due to the emergence of GLP-1 drugs, which suppress appetite and may lead to reduced snack purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司報告北美零食類別銷量下降了 4%，部分原因是 GLP-1 藥物的出現，這些藥物抑制食慾，可能導致零食購買減少。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, PepsiCo reported a 5% increase in effective net pricing across its product categories and geographies, which led to a 3% decrease in total organic volume. PepsiCo has been raising prices for over a year and a half now. With continuously increasing effective net pricing, consumers are now beginning to pull back. This shift represents a significant change this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，百事可樂報告其產品類別和地理區域的有效淨定價增長了 5%，導致總有機銷量下降了 3%。百事可樂已經連續一年半提高價格。隨着持續增加的有效淨定價，消費者現在開始收縮。這種轉變代表了今年的一個重大變化。</p>
</div><h2><strong>PEP’s Valuation, Dividend, and Wall Street Consensus</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>PEP 的估值、股息和華爾街共識</strong></h2>
</div><p>The case for including PepsiCo in a portfolio becomes compelling when considering its current valuation. The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21.7x, which represents a 10.4% discount compared to its five-year historical average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考慮其當前估值時，將百事可樂納入投資組合的理由變得更加強有力。該股票的前瞻市盈率為 21.7 倍，相比其五年曆史平均水平，折讓了 10.4%。</p>
</div><p>As an income investment, PepsiCo’s dividend yield is slightly under 3% but about 7.5% higher than its five-year average. The company raised its dividend by 7% in Q1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為一項收入投資，百事可樂的股息率略低於 3%，但比其五年平均水平高約 7.5%。該公司在第一季度將股息提高了 7%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.01-1024x230.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.01-1024x230.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Lastly, Wall Street’s consensus on PepsiCo is a Moderate Buy. Analysts are somewhat divided, with nine Buys and eight Hold ratings. The average PEP stock price target of $186.35 implies a 4.50% upside potential from the current price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，華爾街對百事可樂的共識是 “中等買入”。分析師意見不一，有九個買入和八個持有評級。PEP 股票的平均目標價為 186.35 美元，暗示着相對於當前價格的 4.50% 的上漲潛力。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG)</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>寶潔（PG）</strong></h2>
</div><p>Last but not least, moving away from the beverage giants, Procter &amp; Gamble enters the comparison with Coca-Cola and PepsiCo as a leader in consumer goods, known for its similar resilient profile through various economic cycles – a key positive point in its investment thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，遠離飲料巨頭，寶潔作為消費品領域的領導者，以其在各種經濟週期中的類似韌性而著稱，這是其投資論點中的一個關鍵正面因素。</p>
</div><p>Procter &amp; Gamble’s latest figures show that Fiscal 2024 (ended June 30, 2024) marked its sixth consecutive year of at least a 4% organic sales growth. Results demonstrated significant strength despite headwinds from consumer spending and inflation, especially since the pandemic. PG stock is up nearly 20% year-to-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>寶潔最新數據顯示，2024 財年（截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日）標誌着其連續第六年至少實現 4% 的有機銷售增長。儘管受到消費者支出和通貨膨脹的阻力，尤其是自疫情爆發以來，PG 股價今年迄今上漲了近 20%。</p>
</div><p>P&amp;G saw a minimal revenue decline in Q4. The quarter’s top line dropped by 0.1% year-over-year to $20.5 billion, slightly missing expectations and triggering a knee-jerk reaction. In fact, slow growth has been a recurring theme, with Fiscal 2024’s organic growth of 4% being the lowest in the last five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>P&amp;G 在第四季度看到了微小的收入下降。該季度的營收同比下降了 0.1%，至 205 億美元，略低於預期，引發了一波短期反應。事實上，緩慢增長一直是一個反覆出現的主題，2024 財年的有機增長率為 4%，是過去五年中最低的。</p>
</div><h2><strong>PG’s Valuation, Dividend, and Wall Street Consensus</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>PG 的估值、股息和華爾街共識</strong></h2>
</div><p>A key point of concern in P&amp;G’s bullish thesis is its high valuation, though this doesn’t mean it’s unjustified as a low-risk profile. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 25.2x, about 40% higher than the consumer goods industry average. But even near its all-time highs, P&amp;G’s valuation is only 2.5% above its five-year average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>P&amp;G 投資論點中的一個關鍵問題是其高估值，儘管這並不意味着它作為低風險投資不合理。該股票的前瞻市盈率為 25.2 倍，約高出消費品行業平均水平 40%。但即使接近歷史高位，P&amp;G 的估值僅高出其五年平均水平 2.5%。</p>
</div><p>In terms of dividends, P&amp;G offers a yield of 2.3%, which is lower than Coca-Cola and PepsiCo. Also, PG’s dividend yield is still almost 8% below the company’s five-year average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股息方面，P&amp;G 提供 2.3% 的股息率，低於可口可樂和百事可樂。此外，PG 的股息率仍然比公司五年平均水平低近 8%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.06-1024x200.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Image-09-09-24-at-15.06-1024x200.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Analysts also appear optimistic about P&amp;G. The stock has a Moderate Buy consensus based on 13 Buys and six Hold ratings. However, the average PG stock price target of $176.50 indicates only a 0.43% increase from the most recent price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師們對寶潔公司（P&amp;G）也持樂觀態度。根據 13 個買入評級和 6 個持有評級，股票獲得了 “中等買入” 共識。然而，平均股價目標為 176.50 美元，僅比最新價格上漲了 0.43%。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Conclusion – KO Emerges as the Best Pick</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>結論 – 可口可樂脱穎而出</strong></h2>
</div><p>Although I hold a bullish stance on KO, PEP, and PG for the long term and believe all three are worthwhile additions to a balanced portfolio, if I had to choose just one today, it would be KO.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管我對可口可樂（KO）、百事可樂（PEP）和寶潔公司（PG）的長期前景持看漲態度，並認為這三者都是平衡投資組合中值得添加的資產，但如果我今天必須選擇一個，我會選擇可口可樂。</p>
</div><p>Despite its premium valuation, I believe Coca-Cola’s stronger defensive appeal and product strategy justify a higher multiple, especially compared to PepsiCo. Recent results have shown that Coca-Cola has demonstrated greater resilience to weak consumer spending compared to PEP and PG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管可口可樂的估值較高，但我認為其更強的防禦吸引力和產品戰略證明了其應獲得更高的估值倍數，特別是與百事可樂相比。最近的結果顯示，與百事可樂和寶潔公司相比，可口可樂表現出更強的抵禦消費者支出疲軟的能力。</p>
</div><p>Disclosure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>披露</p>
</div>

KO, PEP, or PG: Which Consumer Goods Stock Is the Best Pick?

- 受宏觀經濟不確定性影響，可口可樂（KO）、百事可樂（PEP）和寶潔（PG）等消費品股票往往在此類時期表現出色，具有反週期和防禦性質。
- 可口可樂（KO）展現出反週期韌性，股價在經濟不確定性和高利率時期表現優異，特別是在報告 Q2 收益後，股價上漲超過 20%。
- 百事可樂（PEP）面臨強烈競爭和消費者支出疲軟影響，Q2 表現不佳，尤其在 Frito-Lay 部門。
- 寶潔（PG）連續六年實現至少 4% 的有機銷售增長，儘管 Q4 收入略有下降，但仍表現強勁。PG 的股價今年迄今上漲近 20%。

可口可樂（KO）、百事公司（PEP）或寶潔公司（PG）：哪隻消費品股票是最佳選擇？