<ul>
<li>全球 M2 貨幣供應已經轉為正面。</li>
<li>歷史模式表明比特幣可能即將在圖表上大幅上漲</li>
</ul>
<p>比特幣（BTC），全球領先的加密貨幣，繼續在交易者、鯨魚和機構之間閃爍不定。特別是在市場等待年底更好條件的情況下。</p>
<p>歷史上，每當全球 M2 貨幣供應增加時，比特幣就會大幅上漲。現在，隨着全球 M2 轉為正面，交易者們預期可能會出現一波牛市。類似於 2023 年 10 月底和 2024 年初所見的情況，隨後比特幣創下新的歷史高點。</p>
<p>撰寫本文時，BTC/USDT 似乎正在以一個看漲的旗形圖案進行修正。另一波比特幣上漲可能即將到來，預期的美聯儲降息將是關鍵因素。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSptVOXcAAUVLW.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSptVOXcAAUVLW.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Seth Fin/X</p>
<p>25 個基點的降息似乎是可能的。然而，在金融市場中，大幅度的變動需要時間來穩定才會顯現出來。</p>
<h2>比特幣交易回到中間區間</h2>
<p>截至目前，BTC 正在在一個下降趨勢通道內的價格範圍中間交易。</p>
<p>向上突破可能會導致向通道頂部推進並有可能突破。下限位於 51,000 美元，而上限阻力位於 66,000 美元。</p>
<p>儘管比特幣似乎正在 consolide，但其強勢仍然明顯。特別是自從熊市無法突破下降趨勢線以來。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXQnciWXcAAuY0B.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXQnciWXcAAuY0B.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>如果比特幣突破上升趨勢線並保持在上方，BTC 的價格可能會出現顯著的漲勢，有可能推動至新高。這可以通過全球 M2 對比特幣價格圖來支持。</p>
<h2>MVRV z 分數突顯低未實現利潤</h2>
<p>MVRV z 分數，市場情緒的關鍵指標，在截至目前的時間點約為 1.9。這表明比特幣逐漸下降，而網絡的平均鏈上成本基礎已上升。</p>
<p>由此可見，市場中存在低未實現利潤，為上行空間留下更多餘地。</p>
<p>歷史上，每當 MVRV z 分數達到這些水平時，比特幣都會出現顯著的上漲趨勢。2012 年、2020 年和 2023 年的案例是很好的例子。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXUPXkrWkAA8Evb.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXUPXkrWkAA8Evb.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<h2>擁有超過 0.1 比特幣的地址接近歷史高位</h2>
<p>此外，持有至少 0.1 BTC 的比特幣地址數量正接近歷史新高。</p>
<p>這意味着長期持有者，通常被稱為 “強勢持有者”，正在積累比特幣，支持比特幣價格上漲的情況。</p>
<p>隨着更多強勢持有者購買比特幣，市場變得更加強勁。這增加了圖表上上漲趨勢的可能性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXTt4CgWcAAczCq.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXTt4CgWcAAczCq.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Bitcoin Magazine PRO</p>
<h2>比特幣短期持有者淨頭寸變化</h2>
<p>最後，比特幣短期持有者淨頭寸變化顯示，許多最近的買家，他們是在最後一次 “錯失機會”（FOMO）激增期間進入市場的，現在正在離開。</p>
<p>這通常是市場拋售的跡象，預示着潛在的底部。當短期持有者拋售時，往往預示着比特幣價格的激增。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSawPhWoAA3YgA.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSawPhWoAA3YgA.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>總之，比特幣的價格有望實現增長。隨着強勁的鏈上指標和歷史趨勢支持上漲趨勢，如果全球市場條件改善並且美聯儲實施降息，BTC 可能會看到顯著的漲勢。</p>

MSTR

IBIT

GBTC

<p>比特幣顯示出潛在牛市跡象，全球 M2 貨幣供應呈現正增長，與比特幣價格激增有着歷史上的相關性。目前，比特幣交易在一個下降趨勢通道內，突破上軌可能導致價格大幅上漲。MVRV z 分數顯示未實現利潤較低，表明有上漲空間。此外，持有至少 0.1 比特幣的地址數量接近歷史高位，表明長期持有者正在大量累積。總體而言，有利的鏈上指標和歷史趨勢表明，如果市場條件改善且美聯儲降息，比特幣價格可能會上漲</p>

<ul>
<li><em>Global m2 money supply has turned positive.</em></li>
<li><em>Historical patterns indicate BTC might be set to surge on the charts now</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>全球 M2 貨幣供應已經轉為正面。</li>
<li>歷史模式表明比特幣可能即將在圖表上大幅上漲</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Bitcoin [BTC], the world’s leading cryptocurrency, continues to flash uncertainty among traders, whales, and institutions. Especially as the market waits for better conditions in the final quarter of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣（BTC），全球領先的加密貨幣，繼續在交易者、鯨魚和機構之間閃爍不定。特別是在市場等待年底更好條件的情況下。</p>
</div><p>Historically, Bitcoin has surged whenever the global M2 money supply has increased. Now, with the global M2 turning positive, traders are anticipating a potential bull run. One similar to those seen in late October 2023 and early January 2024, following which BTC hit new all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，每當全球 M2 貨幣供應增加時，比特幣就會大幅上漲。現在，隨着全球 M2 轉為正面，交易者們預期可能會出現一波牛市。類似於 2023 年 10 月底和 2024 年初所見的情況，隨後比特幣創下新的歷史高點。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, BTC/USDT seemed to be correcting in a bullish flag pattern. Another BTC surge could be on the horizon, with the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut being key.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>撰寫本文時，BTC/USDT 似乎正在以一個看漲的旗形圖案進行修正。另一波比特幣上漲可能即將到來，預期的美聯儲降息將是關鍵因素。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSptVOXcAAUVLW.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSptVOXcAAUVLW.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Seth Fin/X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Seth Fin/X</p>
</div><p>A 25 basis point cut seems likely. However, in financial markets, large moves need to settle before becoming apparent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>25 個基點的降息似乎是可能的。然而，在金融市場中，大幅度的變動需要時間來穩定才會顯現出來。</p>
</div><h2>Bitcoin trading back at mid range</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特幣交易回到中間區間</h2>
</div><p>At press time, BTC was trading near the middle of its price range within a descending trend channel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，BTC 正在在一個下降趨勢通道內的價格範圍中間交易。</p>
</div><p>A breakout to the upside could lead to a push towards the top of the channel and a potential breakout. The lower boundary sat at $51k, while the upper resistance was at $66k.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>向上突破可能會導致向通道頂部推進並有可能突破。下限位於 51,000 美元，而上限阻力位於 66,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>Now, although BTC seemed to be consolidating, its strength remains evident. Especially since bears have been unable to break the lower trendline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管比特幣似乎正在 consolide，但其強勢仍然明顯。特別是自從熊市無法突破下降趨勢線以來。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXQnciWXcAAuY0B.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXQnciWXcAAuY0B.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>If Bitcoin breaks the upper trendline and stays above it, BTC’s price could see a significant rally, potentially pushing it new highs. This can be supported by the global M2 versus Bitcoin price chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果比特幣突破上升趨勢線並保持在上方，BTC 的價格可能會出現顯著的漲勢，有可能推動至新高。這可以通過全球 M2 對比特幣價格圖來支持。</p>
</div><h2>MVRV z-score highlights low unrealized profits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>MVRV z 分數突顯低未實現利潤</h2>
</div><p>The MVRV z-score, a key indicator of market sentiment, had a reading of around 1.9 at press time. This suggested that BTC has been gradually declining while the network’s average on-chain cost basis has risen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MVRV z 分數，市場情緒的關鍵指標，在截至目前的時間點約為 1.9。這表明比特幣逐漸下降，而網絡的平均鏈上成本基礎已上升。</p>
</div><p>By extension, this means there are low unrealized profits in the market, leaving more room for upward movement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由此可見，市場中存在低未實現利潤，為上行空間留下更多餘地。</p>
</div><p>Historically, whenever the MVRV z-score has been at these levels, Bitcoin has noted significant uptrends. The case studies of 2012, 2020, and 2023 are good examples.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，每當 MVRV z 分數達到這些水平時，比特幣都會出現顯著的上漲趨勢。2012 年、2020 年和 2023 年的案例是很好的例子。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXUPXkrWkAA8Evb.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXUPXkrWkAA8Evb.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><h2>Addresses with more than 0.1 Bitcoin near ATH</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>擁有超過 0.1 比特幣的地址接近歷史高位</h2>
</div><p>Additionally, the number of Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC is nearing a new all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，持有至少 0.1 BTC 的比特幣地址數量正接近歷史新高。</p>
</div><p>This means that long-term holders, often referred to as “strong hands,” are accumulating Bitcoin, supporting the case for higher BTC prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着長期持有者，通常被稱為 “強勢持有者”，正在積累比特幣，支持比特幣價格上漲的情況。</p>
</div><p>As more strong hands buy BTC, it strengthens the market. This increases the likelihood of an upward trend on the charts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着更多強勢持有者購買比特幣，市場變得更加強勁。這增加了圖表上上漲趨勢的可能性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXTt4CgWcAAczCq.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXTt4CgWcAAczCq.png"/></p>
<p>Source; Bitcoin Magazine PRO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Bitcoin Magazine PRO</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin’s short-term holder net position change</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特幣短期持有者淨頭寸變化</h2>
</div><p>Finally, Bitcoin’s short-term holder net position change revealed that many recent buyers, who entered during the last “fear of missing out” (FOMO) spike, are now leaving.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，比特幣短期持有者淨頭寸變化顯示，許多最近的買家，他們是在最後一次 “錯失機會”（FOMO）激增期間進入市場的，現在正在離開。</p>
</div><p>This is often a sign of market capitulation, signaling a potential bottom. When short-term holders capitulate, it often precedes a BTC price surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這通常是市場拋售的跡象，預示着潛在的底部。當短期持有者拋售時，往往預示着比特幣價格的激增。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSawPhWoAA3YgA.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GXSawPhWoAA3YgA.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price is poised for potential growth. With strong on-chain metrics and historical trends favoring an uptrend, BTC could see a significant rally if global market conditions improve and the Federal Reserve implements a rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總之，比特幣的價格有望實現增長。隨着強勁的鏈上指標和歷史趨勢支持上漲趨勢，如果全球市場條件改善並且美聯儲實施降息，BTC 可能會看到顯著的漲勢。</p>
</div>

比特幣——全球 M2 模式對 BTC 下一個牛市週期的啓示是什麼？