<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2021/12/where-to-trade-zillow-stock.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2021/12/where-to-trade-zillow-stock.jpg"/></p>
<p>自我在八月份寫作以來，Redfin（RDFN）股價已經呈現拋物線上升的趨勢。週五飆升至 14.5 美元，創下自 2023 年八月以來的最高水平，比今年最低水平高出 200%。這一飆升使其市值超過了 15 億美元，而空頭頭寸也上升至 15% 以上。</p>
<p>房地產行業的其他公司也表現不俗。Zillow 集團的股價飆升至 60 美元，創下自二月以來的最高水平，而 Compass 的股價也飆升至 6.40 美元，比年初最低價 1.8 美元高出 250%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/COMP_2024-09-14_11-26-52-1024x568.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/COMP_2024-09-14_11-26-52-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p><em>Compass vs Redfin vs Zillow</em></p>
<h2>聯邦儲備利率</h2>
<p>Redfin、Compass 和 Zillow 持續上漲的主要推動因素是市場對聯邦儲備即將在即將召開的會議上開始降息的希望。</p>
<p>最近的經濟數據顯示了這一可能性。根據勞工統計局（BLS）的數據，勞動力市場仍然面臨巨大壓力，失業率今年仍然保持在 4% 以上。</p>
<p>經濟在八月份增加了超過 11.2 萬個工作崗位，根據最近的行動，有可能會對這些數字進行下調。最近，它對截至三月的 12 個月內創造的工作崗位數量進行了逾 80 萬的修訂。</p>
<p>與此同時，美國通脹在過去幾個月有所下降。八月份，消費者價格指數（CPI）降至 2.5%，為兩年多來的最低水平。</p>
<p>因此，市場預期聯儲將在週三進行 0.50% 的降息，並指出今年晚些時候將進一步降息。市場參與者預計聯儲今年晚些時候將降息 125 個基點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1016847534080155648/NGnyajkE_normal.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1016847534080155648/NGnyajkE_normal.jpg"/></p>
<p>根據彭博社的報道：“交易員在週五將大規模聯邦儲備利率降息的可能性提高到 40%，推動了美國政府債券的上漲。”#經濟#聯邦儲備#市場</p>
<p>閲讀 9 條回覆</p>
<p>這些降息有可能通過降低抵押貸款利率來推動未來幾年的房地產市場。最近的數據顯示，利率一直呈下降趨勢。對於信用評分在 700 至 719 之間的人士，30 年期抵押貸款利率已從年初的近 8% 下降至 6.99%。</p>
<p>當聯邦儲備加息時，這些股票表現不佳。Compass 股價從 22 美元跌至 1.86 美元，Redfin 從 98 美元跌至 3 美元，Zillow 從 207 美元跌至 26.78 美元。因此，人們普遍認為，由於這些股票在利率上升時暴跌，它們在利率開始下降時將會反彈。</p>
<h2>REA 集團對 Rightmove 的競購</h2>
<p>股價反彈的另一個可能原因是 REA 集團宣佈有意以超過 70 億美元的價格收購英國的 Rightmove。</p>
<p>正如人們普遍預期的那樣，Rightmove 拒絕了這一提議，稱其嚴重低估了其業務，特別是因為交易的一部分將由 REA 的股票資助。REA 集團有直到本月底提出具有約束力的要約或退出的時間。</p>
<p>因此，一些分析師認為，REA 將把重點轉向美國市場，這個市場通常比英國更活躍。REA 在 Move, Inc.（Realtor.com 背後的公司）擁有少數股權。</p>
<p>分析師認為，隨着一項法院裁決改變了行業的運作方式，房地產科技行業可能會看到更多的整合。根據新規定，房地產經紀必須讓買家在看房前簽署一份表格，預計這將降低他們的佣金。</p>
<h2>分析師對 Redfin、Zillow 和 Compass 持樂觀態度</h2>
<p>與此同時，分析師開始對 Zillow、Redfin 和 Compass 等房地產科技公司持樂觀態度，認為低利率和基本面改善。B. Riley 的分析師在本週的一份報告中將 Redfin 的評級升級為買入，稱：</p>
<p>“雖然買方經紀佣金可能會在整個行業受到壓力，但我們認為 Redfin 在擴大交易量方面處於有利位置。我們相信 EBITDA 利潤率有望在 2025 年轉正，並在此後進一步擴大。以 2025 年 EV/營收 1.8 倍計算，我們認為風險/回報比具有吸引力。”</p>
<p>Needham、高盛、巴克萊和 Oppenheimer 的分析師對 Compass 也普遍持買入評級。</p>
<h2>Redfin、Zillow 和 Compass 面臨風險</h2>
<p>這些股票之所以上漲，也是因為人們認為它們相對被低估，因為它們在過去幾年中大幅下跌。</p>
<p>然而，這些公司面臨着重大風險。首先，利率和抵押貸款利率預計將在較長時間內保持在較高水平。因此，房屋需求可能會在一段時間內保持疲弱。</p>
<p>其次，存在所謂的 “買傳聞賣事實” 的概念。這是指投資者在重大事件發生前購買資產，然後在事件發生時出售。</p>
<p>第三，這些股票已經超買。Zillow 的相對強弱指數（RSI）已經飆升至 72，而 Redfin 的則飆升至 78。Compass 的 RSI 已經飆升至 75，這意味着可能會出現回調。</p>
<p>本文來源：Invezz，原文鏈接：https://www.invezz.com/news/2024/09/14/heres-why-the-redfin-compass-and-zillow-stocks-are-rising/</p>

COMP

Zillow集團-A

<p>Redfin、Compass 和 Zillow 的股票因市場對美聯儲降息預期而大幅上漲，其中 Redfin 的股價從今年最低點上漲了 200%。分析師對這些公司持樂觀態度，認為基本面正在改善，利率也保持低位。然而，仍存在風險，包括持續高利率的可能性。受最近一項影響房地產經紀佣金的法院裁決影響，房地科技行業可能會出現整合。總體而言，分析師已將這些股票的評級上調，預計未來幾年將實現正面增長</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2021/12/where-to-trade-zillow-stock.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2021/12/where-to-trade-zillow-stock.jpg"/></p>
<p>Redfin (RDFN) stock price has gone parabolic since I wrote about it in August. It soared to a high of $14.5 on Friday, its highest level since August 2023 and 200% above its lowest level this year. This surge has brought its market cap to over $1.5 billion while its short interest has risen to over 15%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自我在八月份寫作以來，Redfin（RDFN）股價已經呈現拋物線上升的趨勢。週五飆升至 14.5 美元，創下自 2023 年八月以來的最高水平，比今年最低水平高出 200%。這一飆升使其市值超過了 15 億美元，而空頭頭寸也上升至 15% 以上。</p>
</div><p>Other companies in the real estate industry are doing well. Zillow Group’s stock jumped to $60, its highest level since February while Compass has surged to $6.40, 250% higher than the year-to-date low of $1.8.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地產行業的其他公司也表現不俗。Zillow 集團的股價飆升至 60 美元，創下自二月以來的最高水平，而 Compass 的股價也飆升至 6.40 美元，比年初最低價 1.8 美元高出 250%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/COMP_2024-09-14_11-26-52-1024x568.png" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/09/COMP_2024-09-14_11-26-52-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p><em>Compass vs Redfin vs Zillow</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Compass vs Redfin vs Zillow</em></p>
</div><h2>Federal Reserve interest rates</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>聯邦儲備利率</h2>
</div><p>The main catalyst for the ongoing Redfin, Compass, and Zillow is the ongoing hope that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in its upcoming meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Redfin、Compass 和 Zillow 持續上漲的主要推動因素是市場對聯邦儲備即將在即將召開的會議上開始降息的希望。</p>
</div><p>Recent economic numbers have shown why this is likely to happen. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the labor market has remained under intense pressure, with the unemployment rate remaining above 4% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的經濟數據顯示了這一可能性。根據勞工統計局（BLS）的數據，勞動力市場仍然面臨巨大壓力，失業率今年仍然保持在 4% 以上。</p>
</div><p>The economy added over 112k jobs in August, and based on recent actions, there is a likelihood that it will revise these numbers downward. It recently revised the number of jobs created in the 12 months to March by over 800k.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟在八月份增加了超過 11.2 萬個工作崗位，根據最近的行動，有可能會對這些數字進行下調。最近，它對截至三月的 12 個月內創造的工作崗位數量進行了逾 80 萬的修訂。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the US inflation has moved downwards in the past few months. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 2.5% in August, the lowest level in over two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，美國通脹在過去幾個月有所下降。八月份，消費者價格指數（CPI）降至 2.5%，為兩年多來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, there are odds that the Fed will deliver a 0.50% rate cut on Wednesday and point to more cuts later this year. Market participants expect the Fed to deliver 125 basis point cuts later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，市場預期聯儲將在週三進行 0.50% 的降息，並指出今年晚些時候將進一步降息。市場參與者預計聯儲今年晚些時候將降息 125 個基點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1016847534080155648/NGnyajkE_normal.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1016847534080155648/NGnyajkE_normal.jpg"/></p>
<p>From Bloomberg: “Traders boosted the likelihood of a large Federal Reserve interest-rate cut to 40% on Friday, adding to a rally in US government bonds.”#economy#FederalReserve#markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據彭博社的報道：“交易員在週五將大規模聯邦儲備利率降息的可能性提高到 40%，推動了美國政府債券的上漲。”#經濟#聯邦儲備#市場</p>
</div><p>Read 9 replies</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀 9 條回覆</p>
</div><p>These rate cuts have a chance of boosting the housing market in the coming years by lowering mortgage rates. Recent data shows that rates have been in a downward trend. For people with a credit score of between 700 and 719, the rate for a 30-year mortgage has dropped to 6.99% from the year-to-date high of almost 8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些降息有可能通過降低抵押貸款利率來推動未來幾年的房地產市場。最近的數據顯示，利率一直呈下降趨勢。對於信用評分在 700 至 719 之間的人士，30 年期抵押貸款利率已從年初的近 8% 下降至 6.99%。</p>
</div><p>These stocks underperformed the market when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. Compass stock fell from a high of $22 to a low of $1.86 while Redfin fell from $98 to $3 and Zillow fell from $207 to $26.78. As such, the view is that since the stocks plunged when rates were rising, they will bounce back when they start falling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當聯邦儲備加息時，這些股票表現不佳。Compass 股價從 22 美元跌至 1.86 美元，Redfin 從 98 美元跌至 3 美元，Zillow 從 207 美元跌至 26.78 美元。因此，人們普遍認為，由於這些股票在利率上升時暴跌，它們在利率開始下降時將會反彈。</p>
</div><h2>Rightmove bid by REA Group</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>REA 集團對 Rightmove 的競購</h2>
</div><p>The other likely reason for the rebound was the announcement by REA Group that it was interested in buying UK’s Rightmove in a deal valued at over $7 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股價反彈的另一個可能原因是 REA 集團宣佈有意以超過 70 億美元的價格收購英國的 Rightmove。</p>
</div><p>Rightmove, as was widely expected, rejected the offer, saying that it grossly undervalued its business, especially because of part of the deal would be funded by REA’s stock. REA Group has until end of this month to make a binding offer or walk away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如人們普遍預期的那樣，Rightmove 拒絕了這一提議，稱其嚴重低估了其業務，特別是因為交易的一部分將由 REA 的股票資助。REA 集團有直到本月底提出具有約束力的要約或退出的時間。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, some analysts believe that REA, which is committed to making a big acquisition, could turn its focus to the United States market, which is often more vibrant than in the United Kingdom. REA owns a minority stake in Move, Inc, the company behind Realtor.com.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，一些分析師認為，REA 將把重點轉向美國市場，這個市場通常比英國更活躍。REA 在 Move, Inc.（Realtor.com 背後的公司）擁有少數股權。</p>
</div><p>Analysts believe that the proptech industry could see more consolidation, especially after a court ruling changed how the industry works. As part of the new rules, realtors must let buyers sign a form before showing them the house, a move that is expected to lower their commissions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師認為，隨着一項法院裁決改變了行業的運作方式，房地產科技行業可能會看到更多的整合。根據新規定，房地產經紀必須讓買家在看房前簽署一份表格，預計這將降低他們的佣金。</p>
</div><h2>Analysts are upbeat about Redfin, Zillow, and Compass</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>分析師對 Redfin、Zillow 和 Compass 持樂觀態度</h2>
</div><p>Meanwhile, analysts have started being optimistic about these proptech companies like Zillow, Redfin, and Compass, citing low interest rates and improving fundamentals. In a note this week, analysts at B. Riley upgraded Redfin to a buy, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，分析師開始對 Zillow、Redfin 和 Compass 等房地產科技公司持樂觀態度，認為低利率和基本面改善。B. Riley 的分析師在本週的一份報告中將 Redfin 的評級升級為買入，稱：</p>
</div><p>“While buy-side agent commissions may get pressured industry-wide, we find Redfin well-positioned for volume gains. We believe EBITDA margin is on track to inflect to positive in 2025 and expand further from there. At 1.8x 2025 EV/revenue, we find the risk/reward attractive.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“雖然買方經紀佣金可能會在整個行業受到壓力，但我們認為 Redfin 在擴大交易量方面處於有利位置。我們相信 EBITDA 利潤率有望在 2025 年轉正，並在此後進一步擴大。以 2025 年 EV/營收 1.8 倍計算，我們認為風險/回報比具有吸引力。”</p>
</div><p>Analysts are also generally bullish on Compass, with those at Needham, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Oppenheimer having a buy rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Needham、高盛、巴克萊和 Oppenheimer 的分析師對 Compass 也普遍持買入評級。</p>
</div><h2>Redfin, Zillow, and Compass face risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Redfin、Zillow 和 Compass 面臨風險</h2>
</div><p>The stocks have also jumped because of the view that they are relatively undervalued since they crashed hard in the past few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些股票之所以上漲，也是因為人們認為它們相對被低估，因為它們在過去幾年中大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Still, these companies face substantial risks ahead. For one, interest rates and mortgage rates are expected to remain at an elevated level for a long time. As such, housing demand may remain weak for a while.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這些公司面臨着重大風險。首先，利率和抵押貸款利率預計將在較長時間內保持在較高水平。因此，房屋需求可能會在一段時間內保持疲弱。</p>
</div><p>Second, there is the concept known as buying the rumour and selling the news. This is a situation where investors buy an asset before a big event and then sell when the event happens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，存在所謂的 “買傳聞賣事實” 的概念。這是指投資者在重大事件發生前購買資產，然後在事件發生時出售。</p>
</div><p>Third, the stocks have moved to an overbought level. Zillow’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has jumped to 72 while Redfin’s has soared to 78. Compass RSI has jumped to 75, meaning that a pullback is likely to happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，這些股票已經超買。Zillow 的相對強弱指數（RSI）已經飆升至 72，而 Redfin 的則飆升至 78。Compass 的 RSI 已經飆升至 75，這意味着可能會出現回調。</p>
</div><p>The post Here’s why the Redfin, Compass, and Zillow stocks are rising appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文來源：Invezz，原文鏈接：https://www.invezz.com/news/2024/09/14/heres-why-the-redfin-compass-and-zillow-stocks-are-rising/</p>
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以下是 Redfin、Compass 和 Zillow 股票上漲的原因