<p>在美聯儲前一天降息 50 個基點後，股市週四大幅上漲。其中最大的贏家之一是特斯拉（TSLA -2.20%）。</p>
<p>股價上漲了 7.4%，投資者認為降息對美國最大的電動汽車（EV）製造商是明顯的助力。這一漲幅足以使其市值增加 500 億美元。</p>
<p>儘管特斯拉仍然是電動汽車領域的領導者，但該公司經歷了艱難的一年。股價今年以來仍然下跌，明顯表現不佳，遠遠落後於標普 500 指數和其 “七巨頭” 同行。</p>
<p>特斯拉的問題出現在銷售增長停滯不前，利潤率受到壓力。隨着對無油汽車的需求一度飆升後現在趨於平穩，電動汽車行業似乎正在經歷一場調整。</p>
<p>然而，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克更傾向於歸咎於另一個罪魁禍首：利率。特斯拉首席一再詳細闡述了利率對潛在特斯拉購買者帶來的挑戰。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTEyOTkvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTEyOTkvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>馬斯克最喜歡的替罪羊</h2>
<p>在財報電話會議、媒體採訪以及他的社交媒體平台 X 上，馬斯克一再抱怨高利率的影響。在八月初，他批評美聯儲未在七月會議上降息，在 X 上發文稱：“美聯儲需要降息。他們不降息已經愚蠢至極。”</p>
<p>將近一年前，馬斯克在特斯拉 2023 年第三季度財報電話會議上表達了對利率的擔憂，他説：</p>
<p>我擔心我們所處的高利率環境。我再次強調，絕大多數購車者關注的是月供... 如果利率保持高位，甚至進一步上升，人們購車就會更加困難。</p>
<p>隨着美聯儲 50 個基點的降息以及預計今年晚些時候和明年將進一步降息，馬斯克似乎終於得到了他想要的。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，特斯拉股價週四表現優異，包括那些陷入困境的電動汽車初創公司，由於更需要幫助，它們更有可能受益於較低的利率。例如，Rivian 週四僅上漲了 1.9%，而 Lucid 實際下跌了 0.8%。</p>
<p>傳統汽車製造商也沒有獲得特斯拉的提振。福特下跌了 0.6%，通用汽車收盤下跌了 0.1%。</p>
<h2>降息能幫助特斯拉扭轉局面嗎？</h2>
<p>仔細觀察後，馬斯克對利率的抱怨似乎站不住腳。它們似乎更像是一個方便的藉口，而不是對業務的實質性拖累。</p>
<p>首先，特斯拉對利率的敏感並不是汽車行業獨有的。所有汽車製造商都面臨這一現實，較高的借貸成本確實會提高使用融資的購車者的月供。特斯拉的車輛價格也高於許多競爭對手，這意味着其客户不太可能對利率敏感，因為他們可以負擔得起更昂貴的車輛。</p>
<p>特斯拉還是一家全球公司，不到一半的收入來自美國，儘管美國是其最大的市場。雖然歐洲的利率也上升，但這些市場不應受美聯儲決定的影響。</p>
<p>正如下圖所示，沒有太多證據表明利率上升對汽車銷售產生影響。雖然銷量仍低於疫情前水平，但在美聯儲加息時實際上有所上升，並且自那時以來一直保持穩定。較高的利率並沒有抑制汽車市場，儘管它可能阻止了其增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/af7b8a92d84794908eceb2e5fd5aa59a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/af7b8a92d84794908eceb2e5fd5aa59a.png"/></p>
<p>由 YCharts 提供的美國總車輛銷售數據。</p>
<p>最後，馬斯克的同行們沒有像他那樣高度關注利率，這使得借貸成本更像是特斯拉業績不佳的替罪羊，而不是一個重大阻力。</p>
<h2>對特斯拉意味着什麼</h2>
<p>最終，儘管股價週四大漲，降息對特斯拉的長期表現不太可能產生實質影響。</p>
<p>更重要的是公司能否成功部署全自動駕駛（FSD）技術，以及是否能夠繼續推出新產品，如備受期待的價格親民的 Model 2、機器人出租車和 Optimus 自主機器人。</p>
<p>我們將在公司 10 月 10 日的機器人出租車活動以及一個月後發佈的第三季度財報中瞭解更多信息。</p>
<p>目前，投資者最好關注這些事件，而不是特斯拉在降息上的漲幅。降息並不一定是馬斯克認為的能夠帶來成功的催化劑。</p>

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉股價在美聯儲降息 50 個基點後上漲了 7.4%，為其市值增加了數十億美元。首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克經常將高利率歸咎於特斯拉的銷售困境，但分析師們認為這更多是一種藉口而非真正問題。儘管股價上漲，但利率降低對特斯拉業績的長期影響仍不確定。投資者應關注即將到來的事件，如自動出租車推出和第三季度財報，而不是依賴利率變化作為增長的催化劑</p>

<p>Stocks soared Thursday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points the day before. One of the biggest winners was <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -2.20%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美聯儲前一天降息 50 個基點後，股市週四大幅上漲。其中最大的贏家之一是特斯拉（TSLA -2.20%）。</p>
</div><p>Shares jumped 7.4% as investors saw the rate cuts as a clear tailwind for the U.S.'s largest electric vehicle (EV) maker. That gain was enough to add $50 billion to its market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股價上漲了 7.4%，投資者認為降息對美國最大的電動汽車（EV）製造商是明顯的助力。這一漲幅足以使其市值增加 500 億美元。</p>
</div><p>While Tesla is still the leader in electric vehicles, the company has had a challenging year. The stock is still down year to date, significantly underperforming both the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and its &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管特斯拉仍然是電動汽車領域的領導者，但該公司經歷了艱難的一年。股價今年以來仍然下跌，明顯表現不佳，遠遠落後於標普 500 指數和其 “七巨頭” 同行。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's problems come as sales growth has flatlined and margins are under pressure. The EV industry seems to be going through something of a correction as once-soaring demand for the gas-free cars has plateaued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的問題出現在銷售增長停滯不前，利潤率受到壓力。隨着對無油汽車的需求一度飆升後現在趨於平穩，電動汽車行業似乎正在經歷一場調整。</p>
</div><p>However, CEO Elon Musk prefers to blame a different culprit: Interest rates. Time and again, the Tesla chief has gone to great lengths to spell out the challenges that interest rates have presented for potential Tesla buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克更傾向於歸咎於另一個罪魁禍首：利率。特斯拉首席一再詳細闡述了利率對潛在特斯拉購買者帶來的挑戰。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTEyOTkvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F791299%2Ftesla-model-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Musk's favorite bogeyman</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>馬斯克最喜歡的替罪羊</h2>
</div><p>On earnings calls, in media interviews, and in posts on his social media platform, X, Musk has repeatedly complained about the effect of higher interest rates. In early August, he criticized the Fed for not lowering rates at its July meeting, writing in a post on X: &#34;The Fed needs to drop rates. They have been foolish not to have done so already.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在財報電話會議、媒體採訪以及他的社交媒體平台 X 上，馬斯克一再抱怨高利率的影響。在八月初，他批評美聯儲未在七月會議上降息，在 X 上發文稱：“美聯儲需要降息。他們不降息已經愚蠢至極。”</p>
</div><p>Nearly a year ago, Musk spelled out his concerns about rates on Tesla's third-quarter 2023 earnings call, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>將近一年前，馬斯克在特斯拉 2023 年第三季度財報電話會議上表達了對利率的擔憂，他説：</p>
</div><p>I am worried about the high-interest rate environment that we're in. I just can't emphasize this enough that the vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment... If interest rates remain high or if they go even higher, it's that much harder for people to buy the car.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我擔心我們所處的高利率環境。我再次強調，絕大多數購車者關注的是月供... 如果利率保持高位，甚至進一步上升，人們購車就會更加困難。</p>
</div><p>With the Fed's 50-basis-point cut and more cuts expected later this year and into next year, Musk seems to be finally getting what he's wanted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着美聯儲 50 個基點的降息以及預計今年晚些時候和明年將進一步降息，馬斯克似乎終於得到了他想要的。</p>
</div><p>Notably, Tesla stock outperformed essentially all of its peers on Thursday, including struggling EV start-ups that figure to benefit more from lower interest rates since they're more in need of help. <strong>Rivian</strong>, for example, gained just 1.9% on Thursday, while <strong>Lucid</strong> actually fell 0.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，特斯拉股價週四表現優異，包括那些陷入困境的電動汽車初創公司，由於更需要幫助，它們更有可能受益於較低的利率。例如，Rivian 週四僅上漲了 1.9%，而 Lucid 實際下跌了 0.8%。</p>
</div><p>Traditional automakers also didn't get the Tesla bump. <strong>Ford</strong> fell 0.6%, and <strong>GM</strong> closed down 0.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傳統汽車製造商也沒有獲得特斯拉的提振。福特下跌了 0.6%，通用汽車收盤下跌了 0.1%。</p>
</div><h2>Will rate cuts help Tesla turn around?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>降息能幫助特斯拉扭轉局面嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Upon closer examination, Musk's complaints about interest rates ring hollow. They seem to be more of a convenient excuse, rather than a meaningful drag on the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仔細觀察後，馬斯克對利率的抱怨似乎站不住腳。它們似乎更像是一個方便的藉口，而不是對業務的實質性拖累。</p>
</div><p>First, Tesla's exposure to interest rates isn't unique in the auto industry. All automakers face that reality, and higher borrowing costs do raise monthly payments for buyers who use financing. Tesla's vehicles also carry a higher price tag than many of its competitors', meaning its customers are less likely to be sensitive to interest rates since they can afford a more expensive vehicle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，特斯拉對利率的敏感並不是汽車行業獨有的。所有汽車製造商都面臨這一現實，較高的借貸成本確實會提高使用融資的購車者的月供。特斯拉的車輛價格也高於許多競爭對手，這意味着其客户不太可能對利率敏感，因為他們可以負擔得起更昂貴的車輛。</p>
</div><p>Tesla is also a global company, and less than half of its revenue comes from the U.S., though the U.S. is its biggest market. While rates also rose in places in Europe, those markets shouldn't be affected by the Fed's decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉還是一家全球公司，不到一半的收入來自美國，儘管美國是其最大的市場。雖然歐洲的利率也上升，但這些市場不應受美聯儲決定的影響。</p>
</div><p>As the chart below shows, there's not much evidence that rising rates had an effect on auto sales. While they're still down from pre-pandemic levels, they actually rose when the Fed was hiking rates and have been steady since. Higher rates didn't dampen the auto market, though they could have prevented it from growing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如下圖所示，沒有太多證據表明利率上升對汽車銷售產生影響。雖然銷量仍低於疫情前水平，但在美聯儲加息時實際上有所上升，並且自那時以來一直保持穩定。較高的利率並沒有抑制汽車市場，儘管它可能阻止了其增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/af7b8a92d84794908eceb2e5fd5aa59a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/af7b8a92d84794908eceb2e5fd5aa59a.png"/></p>
<p>US Total Vehicle Sales data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 YCharts 提供的美國總車輛銷售數據。</p>
</div><p>Finally, none of Musk's peers have given the same level of attention to interest rates that he has, making it seem like borrowing costs are more of a scapegoat for Tesla's poor performance, rather than a significant headwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，馬斯克的同行們沒有像他那樣高度關注利率，這使得借貸成本更像是特斯拉業績不佳的替罪羊，而不是一個重大阻力。</p>
</div><h2>What it means for Tesla</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對特斯拉意味着什麼</h2>
</div><p>Ultimately, interest rate cuts are unlikely to be material to Tesla's long-term performance, despite the stock's surge on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，儘管股價週四大漲，降息對特斯拉的長期表現不太可能產生實質影響。</p>
</div><p>What's more important is whether the company can successfully deploy full-self-driving (FSD) technology, and if it can continue to innovate with new products like the anticipated affordably priced Model 2, the robotaxi, and the Optimus autonomous robot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是公司能否成功部署全自動駕駛（FSD）技術，以及是否能夠繼續推出新產品，如備受期待的價格親民的 Model 2、機器人出租車和 Optimus 自主機器人。</p>
</div><p>We'll learn more shortly at the company's Oct. 10 robotaxi event, and when it reports Q3 earnings, due out in a month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們將在公司 10 月 10 日的機器人出租車活動以及一個月後發佈的第三季度財報中瞭解更多信息。</p>
</div><p>For now, investors are better off focusing on those events, rather than on Tesla's jump on interest rate cuts. Rate cuts aren't necessarily the winning catalyst that Musk seems to think they are.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，投資者最好關注這些事件，而不是特斯拉在降息上的漲幅。降息並不一定是馬斯克認為的能夠帶來成功的催化劑。</p>
</div>

Will Interest Rate Cuts Save Tesla? Elon Musk Is Counting On It

- 特斯拉股價因美聯儲降息 50 個基點上漲 7.4%，市值增加 500 億美元。  
- 然而，特斯拉麪臨銷售增長停滯和利潤壓力，CEO 馬斯克將問題歸咎於高利率。  
- 降息對特斯拉長期表現影響有限，關鍵在於新技術和產品的成功推出。  

降息能拯救特斯拉嗎？埃隆·馬斯克對此寄予厚望