<p>在這篇文章中，我正在評估兩家電力公用事業股票：Constellation Energy（CEG）和 Vistra Energy（VST）。仔細觀察支持對 Constellation Energy 持中立觀點，對 Vistra Energy 持悲觀觀點。</p>
<p>Constellation Energy 是美國最大的無碳能源生產商，為美國本土的家庭、企業和公共部門客户提供可持續解決方案。另一方面，Vistra Energy 通過天然氣和煤炭發電，除了核能和太陽能設施外。Vistra 為美國的商業、住宅、市政和工業客户提供服務。</p>
<p>Constellation Energy 的股價今年迄今已飆升了 119%，其中包括過去三個月的 18% 漲幅。與此同時，Vistra Energy 的股價今年迄今已飆升了 182%。這兩隻股票最近為股東帶來了出色的表現。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1-6-1024x210.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1-6-1024x210.jpg"/></p>
<p>在 Vistra 遠遠超過一年的漲勢之後，它與 Constellation Energy 之間出現了相當大的估值差距。我將比較它們的市盈率（P/E）來對比它們的估值。</p>
<p>整個能源行業的估值遠低於 CEG 和 VST 的市盈率。由於這兩家公司都存在於能源複雜領域的可持續一側，行業比較在這種情況下不太有幫助。</p>
<h2><strong>對 Constellation Energy（CEG）的進一步觀察</strong></h2>
<p>Constellation Energy 股價在 9 月 20 日宣佈計劃重新開放三英里島 1 號核電站後飆升了 25% 至創紀錄高位。這座核電站將為微軟的數據中心提供電力，這將為 Constellation 帶來鉅額收入。這次重新開放是一項為期 20 年的協議的一部分，這應該有助於這家軟件巨頭削減其碳足跡。Constellation 在一次演示中告訴投資者，它預計微軟的合同將從 2024 年至 2030 年將其年基本每股收益增長率從 10% 提高到 13%。對我來説，這似乎是對 25% 更高股價的微薄補償，至少目前看來 CEG 股票被高估了。</p>
<p>一個潛在的風險是 Constellation 尚未申請重新開放該設施所需的任何許可證，該設施由於 “經濟原因” 於 2019 年關閉。此外，Constellation 甚至不指望許可流程能在 2027 年之前完成——如果它收到重新開放所需的許可證的話。據路透社報道，美國沒有任何核電站在關閉後重新開放過，因此整個項目似乎是前所未有的。</p>
<p>儘管微軟的交易是一劑強心針，但 Constellation Energy 股票現在處於超買區，相對強弱指標約為 80。因此，下行修正可能即將到來，這可能為機會主義投資者提供買入機會，並減輕項目的一些風險。</p>
<p>以 34 倍市盈率，Constellation Energy 的股價比 Vistra Energy 交易價格低得多。然而，考慮到股價上漲以及重新啓動舊核電站的實施風險，我仍然認為目前持中立觀點是合適的。Constellation Energy 已經在美國擁有最大規模的核電站羣。</p>
<h2><strong>CEG 股票的目標價是多少？</strong></h2>
<p>根據過去三個月的 10 個買入、兩個持有和零賣出評級，Constellation Energy 擁有強烈買入的共識評級。在 261.75 美元的價格上，Constellation Energy 的平均股價目標接近 CEG 股票的最新交易價值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CEG-analysts.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CEG-analysts.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>對 Vistra Energy（VST）的進一步觀察</strong></h2>
<p>以 87 倍市盈率，儘管參與天然氣和煤炭，Vistra Energy 的股價比 Constellation Energy 高得多。該公司從煤炭向更清潔能源的轉變是一個巨大的積極因素，股價迄今已經飆升。然而，在我看來，它目前的估值過高，開啓了對悲觀觀點的可能性。</p>
<p>就像 Constellation 一樣，Vistra 股價在上週飆升至新的歷史高位，現在處於超買區，相對強弱指數為 81。這裏也可能會出現一次修正，特別是考慮到股價的昂貴程度。在過去五年中，Vistra Energy 的估值一直相當波動。該公司在 2022 年和 2021 年甚至沒有盈利，而在過去 12 個月中實現了 6.48 億美元的淨收入，營收超過 140 億美元。這是一個相當薄弱的淨收入利潤率為 4.6%。</p>
<p>由於公司正在從煤炭向清潔能源轉變，Vista 的季度業績不穩定可能是可以原諒的。根據其 2023 年可持續性報告，Vistra 正在取得這一轉變的進展，年度 1 排放量減少了 9%。該公司還表示已經明確了實現 2030 年減排目標的途徑。然而，這一轉變也意味着 Vistra Energy 面臨比 Constellation Energy 更廣泛的風險，後者不燃燒任何煤炭，儘管根據其 2024 年 ESG 資料表，它確實燃燒石油。</p>
<p>核能比太陽能更可靠，Vistra 似乎更專注於通過收購核電站來增加核能容量。2023 年，Vistra 收購了三個核設施。當然，這種收購需要大量資本投入。</p>
<h2><strong>VST 股票的目標價是多少？</strong></h2>
<p>根據過去三個月的六個買入、零持有和零賣出評級，Vistra Energy 擁有強烈買入的共識評級。然而，股價最近的飆升使該股超過了 108.17 美元的平均 VST 股價目標。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/VST-analysts-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/VST-analysts-1.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>結論：對 CEG 持中立觀點，對 VST 持悲觀觀點</strong></h2>
<p>在 TipRanks 的新聞頁面上快速瀏覽 Constellation Energy，可以看到多個價格目標上調，而 Vistra 的則較少。</p>
<p>儘管兩家公司都面臨一定風險，但由於 Vistra 正在轉型遠離煤炭並擴大太陽能業務，其風險可能更加廣泛。另一方面，Constellation 面臨獨特風險，即嘗試重新啓用 Three Mile Island 核電站。</p>
<p>在當前階段，Constellation 看起來是更好的股票持有選擇，儘管我持中立評級。CEG 股票在買入機會中看起來更具吸引力。</p>
<p>披露</p>

<p>這份分析比較了兩家電力公用事業股票：康斯泰能源（CEG）和維斯特拉能源（VST）。由於宣佈重新開放核電廠後最近上漲了 25%，CEG 的前景中性；而儘管今年迄今上漲了 182%，VST 被看作是熊市。CEG 的市盈率為 34 倍，表明可能被高估，而 VST 的市盈率為 87 倍，暗示溢價。兩隻股票都處於超買區，表明可能會有調整。CEG 有強烈的買入共識，而 VST 轉向清潔能源的舉措受到關注，但也引發了對其估值的擔憂</p>

<p>In this piece, I’m evaluating two electric utility stocks: Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra Energy (VST). A closer look supports a neutral view for Constellation Energy and a bearish view for Vistra Energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這篇文章中，我正在評估兩家電力公用事業股票：Constellation Energy（CEG）和 Vistra Energy（VST）。仔細觀察支持對 Constellation Energy 持中立觀點，對 Vistra Energy 持悲觀觀點。</p>
</div><p>Constellation Energy is the largest U.S. producer of carbon-free energy and provides sustainable solutions to homes, businesses, and public-sector customers in the continental U.S. On the other hand, Vistra Energy produces electricity via natural gas and coal in addition to its nuclear and solar facilities. Vistra serves commercial, residential, municipal, and industrial customers in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Constellation Energy 是美國最大的無碳能源生產商，為美國本土的家庭、企業和公共部門客户提供可持續解決方案。另一方面，Vistra Energy 通過天然氣和煤炭發電，除了核能和太陽能設施外。Vistra 為美國的商業、住宅、市政和工業客户提供服務。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Constellation Energy have skyrocketed 119% year to date, including an 18% gain over the last three months. Meanwhile, Vistra Energy stock has soared 182% year to date. Both these stocks have delivered excellent performance for shareholders lately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Constellation Energy 的股價今年迄今已飆升了 119%，其中包括過去三個月的 18% 漲幅。與此同時，Vistra Energy 的股價今年迄今已飆升了 182%。這兩隻股票最近為股東帶來了出色的表現。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1-6-1024x210.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1-6-1024x210.jpg"/></p>
<p>After Vistra’s much-larger one-year rally, it has opened up a sizable valuation gap with Constellation Energy. I’ll compare their price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios to pit their valuations against each other.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Vistra 遠遠超過一年的漲勢之後，它與 Constellation Energy 之間出現了相當大的估值差距。我將比較它們的市盈率（P/E）來對比它們的估值。</p>
</div><p>The valuation of the energy industry as a whole is much lower than the P/Es we’re seeing for CEG and VST. An industry comparison is less helpful in this case due to the existence of both companies on the sustainable side of the energy complex.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整個能源行業的估值遠低於 CEG 和 VST 的市盈率。由於這兩家公司都存在於能源複雜領域的可持續一側，行業比較在這種情況下不太有幫助。</p>
</div><h2><strong>A Closer Look At Constellation Energy (CEG)</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>對 Constellation Energy（CEG）的進一步觀察</strong></h2>
</div><p>Constellation Energy shares soared 25% to a record high on September 20 after it announced plans to reopen its Unit 1 nuclear plant on Three Mile Island. The nuclear plant will provide electricity for Microsoft’s data centers, and this should translate into big bucks for Constellation. The reopening is part of a 20-year deal that should help the software giant slash its carbon footprint. In a presentation, Constellation told investors it expects the Microsoft contract to boost its annual base earnings per share growth rate from 10% to 13% from 2024 to 2030. That seems like small compensation for the 25% higher share price, suggesting to me that CEG stock be overvalued, at least for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Constellation Energy 股價在 9 月 20 日宣佈計劃重新開放三英里島 1 號核電站後飆升了 25% 至創紀錄高位。這座核電站將為微軟的數據中心提供電力，這將為 Constellation 帶來鉅額收入。這次重新開放是一項為期 20 年的協議的一部分，這應該有助於這家軟件巨頭削減其碳足跡。Constellation 在一次演示中告訴投資者，它預計微軟的合同將從 2024 年至 2030 年將其年基本每股收益增長率從 10% 提高到 13%。對我來説，這似乎是對 25% 更高股價的微薄補償，至少目前看來 CEG 股票被高估了。</p>
</div><p>A potential risk is that Constellation hasn’t yet applied for any of the permits to reopen the facility, which was closed back in 2019 due to “economic reasons”. Further, Constellation doesn’t even expect the permitting process to be finished until 2027 — if it receives the necessary permits to reopen at all. According to Reuters, no U.S. nuclear power plant has ever been reopened after being shut down, so the whole venture seems unprecedented.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個潛在的風險是 Constellation 尚未申請重新開放該設施所需的任何許可證，該設施由於 “經濟原因” 於 2019 年關閉。此外，Constellation 甚至不指望許可流程能在 2027 年之前完成——如果它收到重新開放所需的許可證的話。據路透社報道，美國沒有任何核電站在關閉後重新開放過，因此整個項目似乎是前所未有的。</p>
</div><p>While the Microsoft deal was a shot in the arm, Constellation Energy stock is now in overbought territory with a Relative Strength Indicator of about 80. Thus, a downside correction could be right around the corner, which might then present opportunistic investors with a buy-the-dip opportunity and mitigate some of the risk of the project.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管微軟的交易是一劑強心針，但 Constellation Energy 股票現在處於超買區，相對強弱指標約為 80。因此，下行修正可能即將到來，這可能為機會主義投資者提供買入機會，並減輕項目的一些風險。</p>
</div><p>At a P/E of 34x, Constellation Energy is trading at a sizable discount to Vistra Energy, however. I still believe that a neutral view is appropriate at this time given the run-up in shares, along with the implementation risks for rebooting the old nuclear plant. Constellation Energy already operates the largest fleet of nuclear plants in the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 34 倍市盈率，Constellation Energy 的股價比 Vistra Energy 交易價格低得多。然而，考慮到股價上漲以及重新啓動舊核電站的實施風險，我仍然認為目前持中立觀點是合適的。Constellation Energy 已經在美國擁有最大規模的核電站羣。</p>
</div><h2><strong>What is the Price Target for CEG stock?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>CEG 股票的目標價是多少？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Constellation Energy has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 10 Buys, two Holds, and zero Sell ratings assigned over the last three months. At $261.75, the average Constellation Energy stock price target approximates the most recent trading value for CEG stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據過去三個月的 10 個買入、兩個持有和零賣出評級，Constellation Energy 擁有強烈買入的共識評級。在 261.75 美元的價格上，Constellation Energy 的平均股價目標接近 CEG 股票的最新交易價值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CEG-analysts.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CEG-analysts.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>A Closer Look At Vistra Energy (VST)</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>對 Vistra Energy（VST）的進一步觀察</strong></h2>
</div><p>At a P/E of 87x, Vistra Energy is trading at a sizable premium to Constellation Energy despite its involvement in natural gas and coal. The company’s transition from coal to cleaner energy sources is a huge positive, and the stock has soared thus far in 2024. In my view, however, it’s simply overvalued at current levels, opening the prospect for a bearish view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 87 倍市盈率，儘管參與天然氣和煤炭，Vistra Energy 的股價比 Constellation Energy 高得多。該公司從煤炭向更清潔能源的轉變是一個巨大的積極因素，股價迄今已經飆升。然而，在我看來，它目前的估值過高，開啓了對悲觀觀點的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Just like Constellation, Vistra stock jumped to a new record high this past week and is now in overbought territory with a Relative Strength Index of 81. Here too a correction certainly seems quite possible, especially considering how expensive the stock is. Vistra Energy’s valuation has been quite volatile over the past five years. The company wasn’t even profitable in 2022 or 2021 and has now generated net income of $648 million in the last 12 months on over $14 billion in revenue. That’s a fairly slim net income margin of 4.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就像 Constellation 一樣，Vistra 股價在上週飆升至新的歷史高位，現在處於超買區，相對強弱指數為 81。這裏也可能會出現一次修正，特別是考慮到股價的昂貴程度。在過去五年中，Vistra Energy 的估值一直相當波動。該公司在 2022 年和 2021 年甚至沒有盈利，而在過去 12 個月中實現了 6.48 億美元的淨收入，營收超過 140 億美元。這是一個相當薄弱的淨收入利潤率為 4.6%。</p>
</div><p>Vista’s uneven quarterly results may be excusable due to the company’s ongoing transition from coal to clean energy sources. According to its 2023 sustainability report, Vistra is making progress on that transition, having achieved a 9% reduction in Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions year over year. The company also states that it has a clear path to hitting its reduction target for 2030. However, this transition also means Vistra Energy faces more broad-based risks than Constellation Energy, which doesn’t burn any coal, although it does burn oil, according to its 2024 ESG factsheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於公司正在從煤炭向清潔能源轉變，Vista 的季度業績不穩定可能是可以原諒的。根據其 2023 年可持續性報告，Vistra 正在取得這一轉變的進展，年度 1 排放量減少了 9%。該公司還表示已經明確了實現 2030 年減排目標的途徑。然而，這一轉變也意味着 Vistra Energy 面臨比 Constellation Energy 更廣泛的風險，後者不燃燒任何煤炭，儘管根據其 2024 年 ESG 資料表，它確實燃燒石油。</p>
</div><p>Nuclear energy is far more reliable than solar power, and Vistra seems more focused on adding nuclear capacity through acquisitions of nuclear plants. In 2023, Vistra acquired three nuclear facilities. Of course, such acquisitions require a significant amount of capital investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核能比太陽能更可靠，Vistra 似乎更專注於通過收購核電站來增加核能容量。2023 年，Vistra 收購了三個核設施。當然，這種收購需要大量資本投入。</p>
</div><h2><strong>What is the Price Target for VST stock?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>VST 股票的目標價是多少？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Vistra Energy has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on six Buys, zero Holds, and zero Sell ratings assigned over the last three months. However, the recent jump in the share price has elevated the stock above the average VST stock price target of $108.17,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據過去三個月的六個買入、零持有和零賣出評級，Vistra Energy 擁有強烈買入的共識評級。然而，股價最近的飆升使該股超過了 108.17 美元的平均 VST 股價目標。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/VST-analysts-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/VST-analysts-1.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>Conclusion: Neutral on CEG, Bearish on VST</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>結論：對 CEG 持中立觀點，對 VST 持悲觀觀點</strong></h2>
</div><p>A quick glance at TipRanks’ News page for Constellation Energy reveals multiple price target increases, verses a smaller number for Vistra.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 TipRanks 的新聞頁面上快速瀏覽 Constellation Energy，可以看到多個價格目標上調，而 Vistra 的則較少。</p>
</div><p>Both companies face their share of risks, although Vistra’s risks are arguably more broad-based due to its transition away from coal and expansion of solar energy. On the other hand, Constellation faces a unique risk in attempting to recommission the Three Mile Island nuclear plant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管兩家公司都面臨一定風險，但由於 Vistra 正在轉型遠離煤炭並擴大太陽能業務，其風險可能更加廣泛。另一方面，Constellation 面臨獨特風險，即嘗試重新啓用 Three Mile Island 核電站。</p>
</div><p>Constellation looks like the better stock holding at this point, although I have a neutral rating. CEG stock looks like the better buy on a buy-the-dip opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在當前階段，Constellation 看起來是更好的股票持有選擇，儘管我持中立評級。CEG 股票在買入機會中看起來更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Disclosure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>披露</p>
</div>

CEG 與 VST：哪隻清潔能源股票更具優勢？