<p>John Paulson 通過押注次級抵押貸款業務在 2007 年房地產市場崩盤時獲得鉅額利潤，成為投資傳奇人物。他的故事被記錄在書中《史上最偉大的交易》，詳細描述了他如何為他的 <strong>Paulson \u0026 Co.</strong> 對沖基金賺取了 150 億美元，準確預測了抵押危機。</p>
<p>儘管這位億萬富翁後來關閉了基金，但現在通過他的家族辦公室進行投資，這是一個為超級富豪提供服務的工具，僅代表個人、家人和少數其他人進行投資。</p>
<p>與其他億萬富翁投資者相比，Paulson 只擁有相對少量的股票。Paul Tudor Jones 擁有近 1500 支股票，Jim Simons 的 <strong>Renaissance Technologies</strong> 則是一個擁有 3400 多支股票的指數基金，而 Paulson 只擁有 16 家公司。</p>
<p>實際上，在第一季度結束時，他擁有另外三家公司的股票，但在隨後的三個月裏賣掉了所有股份。讓我們看看將它們從投資組合中剔除是否是一個明智的交易。</p>
<h2>本文要點：</h2>
<ul>
<li>John Paulson 在 2007 年對沖房地產市場賺取了 150 億美元的利潤，這筆投資被稱為 “史上最偉大的交易”</li>
<li>在 2024 年第二季度，這位億萬富翁完全清倉了家族辦公室投資組合中的三隻股票。又一個精明的決定，還是 Paulson 離場過早？</li>
<li>如果你正在尋找一些潛力巨大的股票，請務必獲取我們全新免費報告 “下一個英偉達”。其中包括一家我們確信具有 10 倍潛力的軟件公司。</li>
</ul>
<h2>卡羅爾斯餐廳集團</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/imageforentry4-bwk.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/imageforentry4-bwk.jpg"/></p>
<p>漢堡王櫃枱上的顧客</p>
<p>這位億萬富翁賣掉的第一支股票最容易理解。卡羅爾斯餐廳集團是世界上最大的漢堡王連鎖店特許經營商，但也擁有幾十家路易斯安那炸雞餐廳。然而，今年一月，擁有漢堡王和路易斯安那炸雞等品牌的 <strong>餐廳品牌國際</strong>（NYSE:QSR）宣佈將以 10 億美元收購該特許經營商。</p>
<p>總體而言，漢堡王的特許經營商一直處於困難時期，銷售額輸給了 <strong>麥當勞</strong>（NYSE:MCD）等其他品牌。去年，經營約 200 家餐廳的兩家大型特許經營商 Toms King 和 Meridian Restaurants Unlimited 宣佈破產。</p>
<p>在新冠疫情爆發之前，漢堡王就已經步履維艱，而其他快餐連鎖運營商在疫情後蓬勃發展，快餐連鎖仍在持續走下坡路。這導致餐廳品牌國際推出 “重振火焰” 計劃來扭轉漢堡連鎖店的局面。雖然它從破產特許經營商那裏收購了一些門店，但它還與卡羅爾斯達成了每股 9.55 美元的收購協議。Paulson 持有 TAST 股票的平均買入價為每股 8.70 美元，賺取了近 10% 的利潤。</p>
<h2>Newmark 集團（NMRK）</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/imageforentry3-avg.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/imageforentry3-avg.jpg"/></p>
<p>一名女性高管在會議上</p>
<p>這位億萬富翁在第二季度清倉的第二支股票是 <strong>Newmark 集團</strong>（NASDAQ:NMRK），一家商業房地產服務公司，Paulson 之前持有 300 萬股。</p>
<p>這是一筆耐人尋味的交易，因為儘管 Newark 的股價在上半年基本持平，圍繞每股 10 至 11 美元之間波動，但商業房地產市場前景看好。</p>
<p>儘管辦公空置率仍然偏高，但利率下調的前景（現已得到美聯儲半個百分點的降息確認）表明增長即將到來。摩根大通（NYSE:JPM）的分析師表示，“在定價方面，這將是一個關鍵年份，涉及到價格發現。”</p>
<p>Newmark 集團的股價似乎正在上演。年初至今股價上漲了 39%，但自第二季度末以來，NMRK 股價飆升了 55%，這意味着 Paulson 錯過了一些顯著的潛在收益。即便如此，以每股 10.25 美元的平均買入價，他仍對持有股票獲得了 48% 的暗含利潤。</p>
<h2>阿里巴巴（BABA）</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/imageforentry2-doe.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/imageforentry2-doe.jpg"/></p>
<p>一名持信用卡的人在筆記本電腦前</p>
<p>Paulson 賣掉的第三支股票是中國電商巨頭 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>（NYSE:BABA）。看起來這是另一支億萬富翁過早退出的股票。雖然該公司一直受到北京的嚴格監管，指控其使用壟斷行為，但阿里巴巴剛剛收到了不再受到政府監視的明確信號。它已改革了自己的方式，可以再次追求增長。</p>
<p>自第二季度末以來，BABA 股價上漲了 25%，現在交易於新的 52 周高位。然而，與疫情期間的高點相比，仍下跌了 70%。</p>
<p>Paulson 長期持有了 5 萬股，但選擇在第二季度清倉。由於他的平均買入價為每股 151 美元，他可能已經厭倦了等待從未出現的好轉。通過在股價飆升時出售，億萬富翁可能已經收回了部分投資。</p>
<p>現在股價在 4 月底至 5 月初出現了上漲，使阿里巴巴的股價幾乎達到了今天的交易水平，因此這位億萬富翁可能已經在股價飆升時收回了部分投資。</p>
<h2><strong>準備好退休（贊助內容）</strong></h2>
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<p>這篇文章《‘史上最偉大的交易’ 億萬富翁賣出這 3 只股票是個好交易嗎？》最初發布在 24/7 Wall St. 上。</p>

NMRK

<p>約翰·保爾森以成功押注次級抵押貸款市場而聞名，他在 2024 年第二季度從其家族辦公室投資組合中賣出了三隻股票。他賣出了卡羅爾斯餐廳集團，賺取了近 10% 的利潤，以及 Newmark 集團，在那裏他獲得了暗含的 48% 利潤，但錯過了隨後股價飆升帶來的進一步收益。最後，他賣出了阿里巴巴，該公司面臨監管挑戰。文章質疑這些交易是否明智，或者他是否退出得太早</p>

<p>John Paulson became an investing legend by parlaying bets against the subprime mortgage lending business into massive profits when the housing market collapsed in 2007. His story was recounted in the book, <em>The Greatest Trade Ever</em>, which details how he made a whopping $15 billion for his <strong>Paulson &amp; Co.</strong> hedge fund by correctly calling the mortgage crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>John Paulson 通過押注次級抵押貸款業務在 2007 年房地產市場崩盤時獲得鉅額利潤，成為投資傳奇人物。他的故事被記錄在書中《史上最偉大的交易》，詳細描述了他如何為他的 <strong>Paulson \u0026 Co.</strong> 對沖基金賺取了 150 億美元，準確預測了抵押危機。</p>
</div><p>While the billionaire has since closed the fund, he now invests through his family office, a vehicle for the uber-rich that only invests on behalf of the individual, his family, and a select few others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管這位億萬富翁後來關閉了基金，但現在通過他的家族辦公室進行投資，這是一個為超級富豪提供服務的工具，僅代表個人、家人和少數其他人進行投資。</p>
</div><p>Paulson only owns a relative handful of stocks compared to other billionaire investors. Where Paul Tudor Jones owns almost 1,500 stocks and Jim Simons <strong>Renaissance Technologies</strong> is a veritable index fund with over 3,400 stocks, Paulson only owns 16 companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與其他億萬富翁投資者相比，Paulson 只擁有相對少量的股票。Paul Tudor Jones 擁有近 1500 支股票，Jim Simons 的 <strong>Renaissance Technologies</strong> 則是一個擁有 3400 多支股票的指數基金，而 Paulson 只擁有 16 家公司。</p>
</div><p>Actually at the end of the first quarter he had owned three others, but he sold off all the shares he held in the ensuing three months. Let’s look to see if jettisoning them from his portfolio was a great trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>實際上，在第一季度結束時，他擁有另外三家公司的股票，但在隨後的三個月裏賣掉了所有股份。讓我們看看將它們從投資組合中剔除是否是一個明智的交易。</p>
</div><h2>Key Points About This Article:</h2>
<ul>
<li>John Paulson’s bet against the housing market in 2007 netted him $15 billion in profits, an investment deemed “The Greatest Trade Ever”</li>
<li>In the second quarter of 2024, the billionaire completely dumped his positions in three stocks for his family office portfolio. Another prescient call, or did Paulson get out too soon?</li>
<li>If you’re looking for some stocks with huge potential, make sure to grab a free copy of our brand-new “The Next NVIDIA” report. It features a software stock we’re confident has 10X potential.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>本文要點：</h2>
<ul>
<li>John Paulson 在 2007 年對沖房地產市場賺取了 150 億美元的利潤，這筆投資被稱為 “史上最偉大的交易”</li>
<li>在 2024 年第二季度，這位億萬富翁完全清倉了家族辦公室投資組合中的三隻股票。又一個精明的決定，還是 Paulson 離場過早？</li>
<li>如果你正在尋找一些潛力巨大的股票，請務必獲取我們全新免費報告 “下一個英偉達”。其中包括一家我們確信具有 10 倍潛力的軟件公司。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Carrols Restaurant Group</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>卡羅爾斯餐廳集團</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/imageforentry4-bwk.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/imageforentry4-bwk.jpg"/></p>
<p>Customers at the counter of Burger King</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>漢堡王櫃枱上的顧客</p>
</div><p>The first stock he sold down is the easiest to understand. Carrols Restaurant Group was the world’s largest franchisee of Burger King restaurants, but also owned several dozen Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen locations as well. However, in January, <strong>Restaurant Brands International</strong> (NYSE:QSR), which owns Burger King and Popeyes — as well as Tim Horton’s and Firehouse Subs — announced it was acquiring the franchisee for $1 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這位億萬富翁賣掉的第一支股票最容易理解。卡羅爾斯餐廳集團是世界上最大的漢堡王連鎖店特許經營商，但也擁有幾十家路易斯安那炸雞餐廳。然而，今年一月，擁有漢堡王和路易斯安那炸雞等品牌的 <strong>餐廳品牌國際</strong>（NYSE:QSR）宣佈將以 10 億美元收購該特許經營商。</p>
</div><p>Burger King franchisees, on the whole, have been experiencing difficult times, losing sales to <strong>McDonald’s</strong> (NYSE:MCD) and others. Last year, two large franchisees operating some 200 restaurants, Toms King and Meridian Restaurants Unlimited, declared bankruptcy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，漢堡王的特許經營商一直處於困難時期，銷售額輸給了 <strong>麥當勞</strong>（NYSE:MCD）等其他品牌。去年，經營約 200 家餐廳的兩家大型特許經營商 Toms King 和 Meridian Restaurants Unlimited 宣佈破產。</p>
</div><p>Burger King was stumbling before the Covid pandemic hit and where other quick-serve operators surged afterwards, the fast-food chain continued on a downward trajectory. That led Restaurant Brands International to launch its “Reclaim the Flame” initiative to turn the burger chain around. While it acquired a few of the locations from the failed franchisees, it negotiated a buyout of Carrols for $9.55 per share. Paulson, with an average buy price of $8.70 per share for his 58,000 shares of TAST stock, earned a near-10% profit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新冠疫情爆發之前，漢堡王就已經步履維艱，而其他快餐連鎖運營商在疫情後蓬勃發展，快餐連鎖仍在持續走下坡路。這導致餐廳品牌國際推出 “重振火焰” 計劃來扭轉漢堡連鎖店的局面。雖然它從破產特許經營商那裏收購了一些門店，但它還與卡羅爾斯達成了每股 9.55 美元的收購協議。Paulson 持有 TAST 股票的平均買入價為每股 8.70 美元，賺取了近 10% 的利潤。</p>
</div><h2>Newmark Group (NMRK)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Newmark 集團（NMRK）</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/imageforentry3-avg.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/imageforentry3-avg.jpg"/></p>
<p>Female executive at a meeting</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一名女性高管在會議上</p>
</div><p>The second stock the billionaire investor dumped in the second quarter was <strong>Newmark Group</strong> (NASDAQ:NMRK), a commercial real estate services company, that Paulson previously owned 3 million shares of.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這位億萬富翁在第二季度清倉的第二支股票是 <strong>Newmark 集團</strong>（NASDAQ:NMRK），一家商業房地產服務公司，Paulson 之前持有 300 萬股。</p>
</div><p>It was a curious trade because while Newark’s stock had largely traded sideways through the first half of the year, bouncing around a narrow band between $10 and $11 per share, the outlook for the commercial real estate market itself is strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一筆耐人尋味的交易，因為儘管 Newark 的股價在上半年基本持平，圍繞每股 10 至 11 美元之間波動，但商業房地產市場前景看好。</p>
</div><p>Although office vacancy rates remain elevated, the prospects for interest rate cuts (now confirmed by the Federal Reserve’s half percentage point cut), suggested growth was coming. Analysts at <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong> (NYSE:JPM) said, “On the pricing side, it’s going to be a landmark year when it comes to price discovery.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管辦公空置率仍然偏高，但利率下調的前景（現已得到美聯儲半個百分點的降息確認）表明增長即將到來。摩根大通（NYSE:JPM）的分析師表示，“在定價方面，這將是一個關鍵年份，涉及到價格發現。”</p>
</div><p>That seems to be playing out with Newmark Group’s stock. Shares are up 39% year-to-date, but since the end of the second quarter NMRK stock is soaring 55% higher, meaning Paulson missed out on some significant potential gains. Even so, with an average buy price of $10.25 per share, he still made an implied 48% profit on his holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Newmark 集團的股價似乎正在上演。年初至今股價上漲了 39%，但自第二季度末以來，NMRK 股價飆升了 55%，這意味着 Paulson 錯過了一些顯著的潛在收益。即便如此，以每股 10.25 美元的平均買入價，他仍對持有股票獲得了 48% 的暗含利潤。</p>
</div><h2>Alibaba (BABA)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿里巴巴（BABA）</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/imageforentry2-doe.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/imageforentry2-doe.jpg"/></p>
<p>Person holding their credit card in front of a laptop</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一名持信用卡的人在筆記本電腦前</p>
</div><p>The third stock Paulson sold off was Chinese e-commerce giant <strong>Alibaba</strong> (NYSE:BABA). It seems to be another stock the billionaire got out of too early. While the company had been under intense regulatory scrutiny by Beijing, which had charged it with using monopolistic practices, Alibaba just got the all-clear signal that it would no long be under the government’s watchful eye. It had reformed its ways and could pursue growth once more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Paulson 賣掉的第三支股票是中國電商巨頭 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>（NYSE:BABA）。看起來這是另一支億萬富翁過早退出的股票。雖然該公司一直受到北京的嚴格監管，指控其使用壟斷行為，但阿里巴巴剛剛收到了不再受到政府監視的明確信號。它已改革了自己的方式，可以再次追求增長。</p>
</div><p>BABA shares are up 25% since the end of the second quarter and now trade at new 52-week highs. However, they are still down 70% from their pandemic highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自第二季度末以來，BABA 股價上漲了 25%，現在交易於新的 52 周高位。然而，與疫情期間的高點相比，仍下跌了 70%。</p>
</div><p>Paulson had maintained a 50,000-share position for some time, but chose to close out his holdings in the second quarter. As he had an average buy-in price of $151 per share, he may have grown tired of waiting for a turnaround that never seemed to materialize. By selling when he did, Paulson had an implied 47% loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Paulson 長期持有了 5 萬股，但選擇在第二季度清倉。由於他的平均買入價為每股 151 美元，他可能已經厭倦了等待從未出現的好轉。通過在股價飆升時出售，億萬富翁可能已經收回了部分投資。</p>
</div><p>Now there was a run-up in the stock in late-April to early-May that had brought Alibaba’s stock almost to where it trades today, so the billionaire investor may have recouped some of his investment if he sold out when shares were running hot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在股價在 4 月底至 5 月初出現了上漲，使阿里巴巴的股價幾乎達到了今天的交易水平，因此這位億萬富翁可能已經在股價飆升時收回了部分投資。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>準備好退休（贊助內容）</strong></h2>
</div><p>Start by taking a quick retirement quiz from SmartAsset that will match you with up to 3 financial advisors that serve your area and beyond in 5 minutes, or less.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 SmartAsset 快速進行一項退休測驗，將在 5 分鐘內為您匹配多達 3 名為您提供服務的理財顧問，這些顧問不僅經過 SmartAsset 的審核，而且還被要求遵守以您的最佳利益行事的受託人標準。</p>
</div><p>Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests.</p>
<p>Here’s how it works:</p>
<p>1. Answer SmartAsset advisor match quiz</p>
<p>2. Review your pre-screened matches at your leisure. Check out the advisors’ profiles.</p>
<p>3. Speak with advisors at no cost to you. Have an introductory call on the phone or introduction in person and choose whom to work with in the future</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是它的工作原理：</p>
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<p>回答 SmartAsset 顧問匹配問卷</p>
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<p>自由查看您預先篩選的匹配結果。查看顧問的個人資料。</p>
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<p>與顧問免費交流。通過電話進行初步通話或面對面介紹，並選擇未來合作的對象</p>
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</div><p>Get started right here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>立即開始。</p>
</div><p>The post Did ‘The Greatest Trade Ever’ Billionaire Make a Great Trade Selling These 3 Stocks? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這篇文章《‘史上最偉大的交易’ 億萬富翁賣出這 3 只股票是個好交易嗎？》最初發布在 24/7 Wall St. 上。</p>
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Did ‘The Greatest Trade Ever’ Billionaire Make a Great Trade Selling These 3 Stocks?

247wallst

“有史以來最偉大交易” 的億萬富翁賣出這三隻股票是一個明智的交易嗎？