<p><strong>家得寶</strong>(Costco 0.85%) 和 <strong>開市客</strong>(Home Depot -0.78%) 的市值分別為 3890 億美元和 4060 億美元。因此，我相信許多投資者也是這兩家巨大企業的顧客。這兩家零售股票在過去幾十年裏一直回報股東，但顯然有一家公司現在是更好的購買選擇。</p>
<h2>家得寶是行業的金標準</h2>
<p>家得寶在 2024 財年的淨銷售額達到 2500 億美元，是世界第三大零售商。它以在各種類別中銷售優質商品以及提供一些最低價格而聞名，這就是為什麼它主導了零售行業。</p>
<p>家得寶的規模幫助它從強大的規模優勢中受益，這是其關鍵競爭優勢。該企業的庫存單位遠少於其競爭對手。因此，在從供應商購買商品時，它具有巨大的談判槓桿。這導致單位成本降低，節省的成本總是傳遞給購物者。</p>
<p>使家得寶脱穎而出的特點是其會員模式。消費者必須支付年費才能有權在公司的倉庫購物。在最新的財季中，會員收入按照年化基礎增長了 7.4%，達到了 15 億美元。這為企業提供了高利潤和可預測的收入流，同時也促進了客户忠誠度。這種組合難以超越。</p>
<p>家得寶有穩定的營收和利潤增長曆史。底線的穩定實際上幫助管理層支付一次性特別股息。今年一月，該企業每股支付了 15 美元。在此之前，2020 年 12 月支付了一次性 10 美元的股息。這是除了常規季度分紅之外的額外支付。這樣的資本分配政策有助於提高回報。</p>
<h2>開市客的暫時挫折</h2>
<p>在 2020 財年和 2021 財年，開市客實現了兩位數的營收增長，因為在疫情最嚴重的時期需求強勁。但最近情況有所降温。較高的利率和通貨膨脹壓力使購物者不願在昂貴的翻修項目上花費。</p>
<p>因此，營收受到了打擊。同店銷售在 2023 財年下降了 3.2%，預計在當前財年將下降 3% 到 4%。</p>
<p>但更好的日子可能就在眼前。首先，開市客受益於一些有利的行業助推力。美國房屋的中位年齡每年都在穩步上升，現在已經達到 40 歲。這個國家存在相當大的住房短缺，這也支持了對家庭翻修活動的需求。</p>
<p>此外，根據 <strong>Redfin</strong> 的數據，今天的房屋中位價格為 43.3 萬美元。僅在過去五年中，這一數字上漲了約 45%。房主擁有的這種增值可以用來資助翻修項目。未來利率的下降前景也可能刺激公司的新的銷售增長趨勢。</p>
<p>截至目前，開市客的股價市盈率為 27.6。這絕不是便宜的價格，但比家得寶的 53.1 要合理得多。</p>
<p>家得寶令人印象深刻的規模優勢，加上其可預測的收入流和穩定的財務業績，使其成為這兩家公司中更高質量的企業。但目前其股價的市盈率倍數過高。這意味着對這家倉儲俱樂部運營商有着很高的期望，高估值給實現強勁投資回報帶來了重大阻力。</p>
<p>如果我們展望未來五年，我認為開市客可能會為您的投資組合帶來比家得寶更好的收益。</p>

家得寶

開市客

<p>開市客和家得寶是兩家主要的零售股，其中開市客是全球第三大零售商，以其會員制模式和持續增長的營收而聞名。開市客最近的財季會員收入增長了 7.4%，而家得寶面臨由經濟壓力導致的同店銷售下降的挑戰。然而，家得寶可能受益於有利的房地產趨勢和潛在的利率降低。儘管開市客表現強勁，但其高市盈率表明與家得寶相比，在未來五年內可能無法提供最佳投資回報</p>

<p><strong>Costco</strong>(COST 0.85%) and <strong>Home Depot</strong>(HD -0.78%) carry market caps of $389 billion and $406 billion, respectively. Consequently, I'm sure many investors are also customers of these two massive businesses. Both retail stocks have rewarded shareholders over the past few decades, but one is obviously the better company to buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>家得寶</strong>(Costco 0.85%) 和 <strong>開市客</strong>(Home Depot -0.78%) 的市值分別為 3890 億美元和 4060 億美元。因此，我相信許多投資者也是這兩家巨大企業的顧客。這兩家零售股票在過去幾十年裏一直回報股東，但顯然有一家公司現在是更好的購買選擇。</p>
</div><h2>Costco is the gold standard in the industry</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>家得寶是行業的金標準</h2>
</div><p>With fiscal 2024 net sales of $250 billion, Costco is the third-biggest retailer in the world. It's known for selling quality merchandise in a broad range of categories at some of the lowest prices around, which is why it has come to dominate the retail sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得寶在 2024 財年的淨銷售額達到 2500 億美元，是世界第三大零售商。它以在各種類別中銷售優質商品以及提供一些最低價格而聞名，這就是為什麼它主導了零售行業。</p>
</div><p>Costco's size helps it benefit from powerful scale advantages, which is its key competitive strength. The business carries far fewer stock-keeping units than its rivals. Therefore, it has tremendous negotiating leverage when purchasing goods from suppliers. This results in lower per-unit costs, savings that are always passed on to shoppers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得寶的規模幫助它從強大的規模優勢中受益，這是其關鍵競爭優勢。該企業的庫存單位遠少於其競爭對手。因此，在從供應商購買商品時，它具有巨大的談判槓桿。這導致單位成本降低，節省的成本總是傳遞給購物者。</p>
</div><p>The trait that makes Costco stand out is its membership model. Consumers must pay an annual fee to have the right to shop at one of the company's warehouses. In the latest fiscal quarter, membership revenue increased 7.4% to $1.5 billion on a normalized basis year over year. This provides the business with a high margin and predictable revenue stream while also driving customer loyalty. That combination is hard to beat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使家得寶脱穎而出的特點是其會員模式。消費者必須支付年費才能有權在公司的倉庫購物。在最新的財季中，會員收入按照年化基礎增長了 7.4%，達到了 15 億美元。這為企業提供了高利潤和可預測的收入流，同時也促進了客户忠誠度。這種組合難以超越。</p>
</div><p>Costco has a history of steady revenue and profit growth. The consistency of the bottom line has actually helped management pay out one-time special dividends. In January, the business paid out $15 per share. Before that, a special $10 dividend was paid in December 2020. This is in addition to the regular quarterly payout. A favorable capital allocation policy like this helps to boost returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得寶有穩定的營收和利潤增長曆史。底線的穩定實際上幫助管理層支付一次性特別股息。今年一月，該企業每股支付了 15 美元。在此之前，2020 年 12 月支付了一次性 10 美元的股息。這是除了常規季度分紅之外的額外支付。這樣的資本分配政策有助於提高回報。</p>
</div><h2>Home Depot's temporary setback</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>開市客的暫時挫折</h2>
</div><p>Home Depot registered double-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021, as demand was strong during the worst days of the pandemic. But things have cooled down recently. Higher interest rates and inflationary pressures have discouraged shoppers from spending on costly renovation projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2020 財年和 2021 財年，開市客實現了兩位數的營收增長，因為在疫情最嚴重的時期需求強勁。但最近情況有所降温。較高的利率和通貨膨脹壓力使購物者不願在昂貴的翻修項目上花費。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the top line has taken a hit. Same-store sales decreased 3.2% in fiscal 2023 and are expected to drop between 3% and 4% in the current fiscal year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，營收受到了打擊。同店銷售在 2023 財年下降了 3.2%，預計在當前財年將下降 3% 到 4%。</p>
</div><p>But better days are likely on the horizon. For starters, Home Depot benefits from some favorable industry tailwinds. The median age of a home in the U.S. steadily rises with each passing year -- it's now at 40 years old. The fact that there's a sizable housing shortage in this country also supports the demand for home renovation activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但更好的日子可能就在眼前。首先，開市客受益於一些有利的行業助推力。美國房屋的中位年齡每年都在穩步上升，現在已經達到 40 歲。這個國家存在相當大的住房短缺，這也支持了對家庭翻修活動的需求。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, according to data from <strong>Redfin</strong>, the median price of a home today is $433,000. That's up about 45% just in the last five years. This rising equity that homeowners have could be tapped to fund renovation projects. The prospects of lower interest rates going forward could also spur a new trend of sales growth for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，根據 <strong>Redfin</strong> 的數據，今天的房屋中位價格為 43.3 萬美元。僅在過去五年中，這一數字上漲了約 45%。房主擁有的這種增值可以用來資助翻修項目。未來利率的下降前景也可能刺激公司的新的銷售增長趨勢。</p>
</div><p>As of this writing, shares of Home Depot trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.6. That's not a bargain by any stretch, but it's much more reasonable than Costco's 53.1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，開市客的股價市盈率為 27.6。這絕不是便宜的價格，但比家得寶的 53.1 要合理得多。</p>
</div><p>Costco's impressive scale advantage, coupled with its recurring revenue stream and steady financial results, make it the higher-quality business of these two. But its shares go for a nosebleed P/E multiple right now. This implies lofty expectations for the warehouse club operator, with the high valuation creating a major headwind to achieving strong investment returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得寶令人印象深刻的規模優勢，加上其可預測的收入流和穩定的財務業績，使其成為這兩家公司中更高質量的企業。但目前其股價的市盈率倍數過高。這意味着對這家倉儲俱樂部運營商有着很高的期望，高估值給實現強勁投資回報帶來了重大阻力。</p>
</div><p>If we look at things over the next five years, I'd argue that Home Depot is likely to produce a better gain for your portfolio than Costco.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我們展望未來五年，我認為開市客可能會為您的投資組合帶來比家得寶更好的收益。</p>
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當前最值得購買的股票：Costco Wholesale 與 Home Depot