<p>如果你相信埃隆·馬斯克，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.91%) 不再是一家汽車製造商，而是一家人工智能（AI）和機器人公司。這使得評估特斯拉股票的潛力和價值變得更加困難，因為特斯拉目前在人工智能或機器人領域的收入非常有限。</p>
<p>特斯拉未來走向何方，投資者是否應該購買該股？讓我們逐個分析。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTEwNDUvMHgwLW1vZGVsM19yaGRfMDMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="490" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTEwNDUvMHgwLW1vZGVsM19yaGRfMDMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>電動汽車業務已不同往日</h2>
<p>特斯拉今天的業務主要是銷售電動汽車（EVs），並附帶能源存儲業務。在本文中，我將把這兩個業務合併起來，視為一個業務。</p>
<p>如果你排除 2024 年第四季度記錄的 59 億美元遞延税款資產收益，你會發現自由現金流和淨收入都在下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92748cf9a23951ea3681479f681ed313.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92748cf9a23951ea3681479f681ed313.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 淨收入（TTM）數據來源：YCharts；TTM = 過去 12 個月。</p>
<p>淨收入下降的原因非常簡單。特斯拉在疫情期間能夠提高價格，從而提高利潤率，但在過去兩年不得不降價。這將導致利潤率降低。</p>
<p>利潤率正在下降，你可以看到它們現在僅略優於 <strong>通用汽車</strong>(GM 1.56%) 和 <strong>福特</strong>(F 1.15%)，儘管這家電動汽車製造商的股價按照市銷率（P/S）計算要高出 30 倍。請記住：特斯拉的交付量和收入也在下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91231c925d4cf3b5ebfd15156e1f5142.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="575" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91231c925d4cf3b5ebfd15156e1f5142.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 營運利潤率（TTM）；數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>因此，市場必定對人工智能和機器人賦予了很高的價值。</p>
<h2>人工智能和特斯拉的 FSD 戰略</h2>
<p>我們知道特斯拉自 2014 年開始銷售 Autopilot，自 2020 年開始銷售全自動駕駛（FSD）功能，即需要人類監督的自動駕駛。我們不清楚的是採用率或該選項的利潤率。目前，它被納入汽車業務。</p>
<p>第三方估計採用率為 2%，儘管埃隆·馬斯克表示採用率&#34;要高得多&#34;，但沒有詳細説明。如果我們假設採用率為 5%，每年銷售 200 萬輛車，按照當前每月 99 美元的價格，這可能每年增加 1.2 億美元的額外收入。這很不錯，但對於市值 8320 億美元的公司來説並沒有太大影響。</p>
<p>願景是 FSD 最終將導致一支自動駕駛車隊。這些車將由特斯拉購買者擁有，他們將向特斯拉支付 FSD 費用，並在將車輛作為機器人出租車提供時賺取收入。</p>
<p>現實是，FSD 目前無法在全球任何地方合法獨立駕駛車輛，而且在特斯拉獲得運營任何類型自動駕駛車隊的許可之前，可能還需要數年時間。即使發生這種情況，這種商業模式的經濟效益仍不明確。</p>
<p>市場顯然喜歡機器人出租車的想法，但我不清楚在 FSD 今天必須受監督且沒有通往完全自主的路徑的情況下，如何實現現金流。</p>
<h2>機器人業務</h2>
<p>機器人是業務中另一個極不明確的部分。有一款人形機器人正在開發中，但這樣的產品市場在哪裏？</p>
<p>同樣，投資者被要求賦予一款尚不存在的產品很高的價值，市場適用性不明。</p>
<h2>今天不宜購買特斯拉股票</h2>
<p>特斯拉目前的市銷率為 9 倍，市盈率為 73 倍。展望未來，該股市盈率為分析師對明年盈利的預測為 93 倍。</p>
<p>對於一家核心業務下滑且在人工智能和機器人領域有高風險新產品的公司來説，支付如此高的倍數是非常高的。</p>
<p>我認為風險不值得承擔，這就是為什麼我認為現在應該賣出該股票。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉股票在從汽車製造商轉型為人工智能和機器人公司的過程中受到審視。電動汽車業務下滑，淨收入和利潤率因價格下調而下降。特斯拉全自動駕駛（FSD）功能的採用率較低，其自動駕駛車隊的未來仍不確定。此外，機器人領域缺乏市場需求的明確性。目前，特斯拉的股價倍數較高，使其成為一項風險投資。結論是，目前特斯拉的股票應該賣出</p>

<p>If you believe Elon Musk, <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.91%) is not an automaker anymore, it's an artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics company. That makes it much harder to assess the potential and value of the stock because there's very little in AI or robotics revenue at Tesla today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你相信埃隆·馬斯克，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.91%) 不再是一家汽車製造商，而是一家人工智能（AI）和機器人公司。這使得評估特斯拉股票的潛力和價值變得更加困難，因為特斯拉目前在人工智能或機器人領域的收入非常有限。</p>
</div><p>Where is Tesla going, and should investors buy the stock? Let's break it down into components.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉未來走向何方，投資者是否應該購買該股？讓我們逐個分析。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTEwNDUvMHgwLW1vZGVsM19yaGRfMDMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F791045%2F0x0-model3_rhd_03.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>The EV business isn't what it once was</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>電動汽車業務已不同往日</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's business today is primarily selling electric vehicles (EVs) with an adjacent energy storage business. For the purpose of this article, I'm going to combine those two businesses and treat them as one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉今天的業務主要是銷售電動汽車（EVs），並附帶能源存儲業務。在本文中，我將把這兩個業務合併起來，視為一個業務。</p>
</div><p>You can see that free cash flow is in decline and so is net income if you pull out the $5.9 billion benefit from deferred tax assets recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你排除 2024 年第四季度記錄的 59 億美元遞延税款資產收益，你會發現自由現金流和淨收入都在下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92748cf9a23951ea3681479f681ed313.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92748cf9a23951ea3681479f681ed313.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA net income (TTM) data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 淨收入（TTM）數據來源：YCharts；TTM = 過去 12 個月。</p>
</div><p>The reason net income is declining is pretty simple. Tesla was able to raise prices -- and, in turn, its margins -- during the pandemic when the entire industry was in short supply, but it has had to cut prices over the past two years. That will show up in lower margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>淨收入下降的原因非常簡單。特斯拉在疫情期間能夠提高價格，從而提高利潤率，但在過去兩年不得不降價。這將導致利潤率降低。</p>
</div><p>Margins are falling, and you can see below that they are now only slightly better than <strong>GM</strong>(GM 1.56%) and <strong>Ford</strong>(F 1.15%), despite the EV maker's stock trading for 30 times more on the basis of its price-to-sales ratio (P/S). And remember: Tesla's deliveries and revenue are falling, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利潤率正在下降，你可以看到它們現在僅略優於 <strong>通用汽車</strong>(GM 1.56%) 和 <strong>福特</strong>(F 1.15%)，儘管這家電動汽車製造商的股價按照市銷率（P/S）計算要高出 30 倍。請記住：特斯拉的交付量和收入也在下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91231c925d4cf3b5ebfd15156e1f5142.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91231c925d4cf3b5ebfd15156e1f5142.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA operating margin (TTM); data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 營運利潤率（TTM）；數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>So the market must be putting a lot of value on AI and robotics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，市場必定對人工智能和機器人賦予了很高的價值。</p>
</div><h2>AI and Tesla's FSD strategy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能和特斯拉的 FSD 戰略</h2>
</div><p>We know Tesla has been selling Autopilot since 2014 and its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature -- automated driving that requires human supervision -- since 2020. What we don't know is the adoption rate or anything about the option's margins. For now, it's folded into the auto business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們知道特斯拉自 2014 年開始銷售 Autopilot，自 2020 年開始銷售全自動駕駛（FSD）功能，即需要人類監督的自動駕駛。我們不清楚的是採用率或該選項的利潤率。目前，它被納入汽車業務。</p>
</div><p>Third-party estimates have the rate of adoption at 2%, although Elon Musk said it was &#34;much higher,&#34; without elaborating. If we assume the adoption rate is 5% on 2 million vehicles sold per year, it could add $120 million per year in incremental revenue at the current price of $99 per month. That's nice, but it doesn't move the needle much for an $832 billion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三方估計採用率為 2%，儘管埃隆·馬斯克表示採用率&#34;要高得多&#34;，但沒有詳細説明。如果我們假設採用率為 5%，每年銷售 200 萬輛車，按照當前每月 99 美元的價格，這可能每年增加 1.2 億美元的額外收入。這很不錯，但對於市值 8320 億美元的公司來説並沒有太大影響。</p>
</div><p>The vision is for FSD to ultimately lead to a fleet of autonomous vehicles. They would be owned by Tesla buyers, who would then pay Tesla for FSD and earn money when they make their cars available as robotaxis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>願景是 FSD 最終將導致一支自動駕駛車隊。這些車將由特斯拉購買者擁有，他們將向特斯拉支付 FSD 費用，並在將車輛作為機器人出租車提供時賺取收入。</p>
</div><p>The reality is, FSD isn't able to legally drive a vehicle by itself anywhere in the world today, and it's likely to be years before Tesla gets a license to operate any kind of autonomous fleet. Even after that happens, the economics of this business model is unclear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現實是，FSD 目前無法在全球任何地方合法獨立駕駛車輛，而且在特斯拉獲得運營任何類型自動駕駛車隊的許可之前，可能還需要數年時間。即使發生這種情況，這種商業模式的經濟效益仍不明確。</p>
</div><p>The market clearly likes the robotaxi idea, but I don't see how there's a clear path to cash flow given its FSD must be supervised today and doesn't have a path to full autonomy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場顯然喜歡機器人出租車的想法，但我不清楚在 FSD 今天必須受監督且沒有通往完全自主的路徑的情況下，如何實現現金流。</p>
</div><h2>The robotics business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>機器人業務</h2>
</div><p>Robots are the other piece of the business that's extremely unclear. There's a humanoid robot under development, but what is market for such a product?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>機器人是業務中另一個極不明確的部分。有一款人形機器人正在開發中，但這樣的產品市場在哪裏？</p>
</div><p>Again, investors are being asked to put a lot of value on a product that doesn't yet exist, with an unclear market fit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣，投資者被要求賦予一款尚不存在的產品很高的價值，市場適用性不明。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's stock is not a buy today</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>今天不宜購買特斯拉股票</h2>
</div><p>Tesla is currently trading for 9 times sales and 73 times trailing earnings. Looking forward, the stock is trading for 93 times analyst estimates for next year's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉目前的市銷率為 9 倍，市盈率為 73 倍。展望未來，該股市盈率為分析師對明年盈利的預測為 93 倍。</p>
</div><p>That's an incredibly high multiple to pay for a company with a declining core and very high-risk new products in AI and robotics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於一家核心業務下滑且在人工智能和機器人領域有高風險新產品的公司來説，支付如此高的倍數是非常高的。</p>
</div><p>I don't think the risk is worth taking, and that's why I think the stock is a sell today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為風險不值得承擔，這就是為什麼我認為現在應該賣出該股票。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

- 特斯拉的核心業務是電動車和能源存儲，淨收入和自由現金流下降。  
- 儘管市場對人工智能和機器人業務寄予厚望，但相關收入微薄。  
- 目前特斯拉股票估值過高，風險不值得投資。

特斯拉股票：是該買入、賣出還是持有？