<p><strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 0.64%) 的股東在過去五年經歷了許多波折。股價在疫情高峰期飆升至天際，但在 2022 年人們恢復線下購物習慣時暴跌了高達 87%。</p>
<p>儘管此後經歷了相當大的復甦，但仍低於 2021 年的高點不到 50%。投資者面臨的問題是，它能否在未來五年擊敗市場，或者業務狀況是否可能擾亂其復甦。</p>
<h2>Shopify 公司現狀</h2>
<p>Shopify 最初是一個商家解決方案。在高度競爭的電子商務平台環境中脱穎而出，通過提供高度可定製的無代碼網站。由於網站速度慢可能導致銷售下降，Shopify 還強調快速交易。</p>
<p>儘管如此，Shopify 通過提供輔助服務擴大了其競爭優勢，可以使其成為滿足所有電子商務需求的一站式購物平台。因此，支付處理、社交媒體管理和籌集資金等多樣化服務都可以通過 Shopify 處理。</p>
<p>Shopify 還嘗試通過增加履約和物流業務來擴大業務。然而，提供此類服務的高成本（以及可能的低利潤率）促使 Shopify 出售其物流部門。出售該業務使 Shopify 重返盈利，這對公司未來五年可能是個好兆頭。</p>
<p>Grand View Research 預測到 2030 年電子商務行業的複合年增長率為 19%。即使無法通過提供物流吸引客户，這對 Shopify 應該是個好消息。</p>
<h2>Shopify 的財務狀況和股票</h2>
<p>至於財務狀況，瞭解 Shopify 未來走向的一種方法是查看過去幾年的營收水平。投資者可能會看到營收增長明顯放緩。</p>
<p>到 2019 年，營收增長率已經放緩，跌破了 50%。然而，疫情引發了對在線購物的意外需求，導致 2020 年和 2021 年營收大幅增加。此後，營收增長急劇放緩。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>營收增長率</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>57%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：來自 2023 年、2021 年和 2019 年的 Shopify 年度報告。</p>
<p>2023 年的價格上漲可能掩蓋了這一效應。不過，客户可以通過轉向更便宜的年度計劃來緩解這一影響。</p>
<p>投資者還應記住，Shopify 上半年實現了 39 億美元的營收，其中將近 73% 來自商家解決方案而非網站本身，這意味着價格上漲可能對增長影響不大。</p>
<p>此外，由於物流業務的出售，Shopify 看起來已經重返盈利。儘管公司在 2024 年上半年虧損了 1.11 億美元，但其中包括第二季度的 1.7 億美元淨收入。這增加了公司在 2024 年盈利的可能性，這是一個令人期待的改善，可能有助於激發 Shopify 股票的復甦。</p>
<p>此外，它的前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 75，市銷率（P/S）為 14。雖然這些比率聽起來很高，但市銷率遠低於疫情高峰期的水平，這應該減少與其估值相關的擔憂。</p>
<p>市銷率也反映了對未來的期望，分析師對未來五年的盈利增長預測平均為 47%。儘管這樣的預測是 “過早” 的預測，在更多數據可用時可能會發生變化，但它們表明利潤在未來幾年可能會大幅增長。</p>
<h2>五年後的 Shopify</h2>
<p>最終，Shopify 在未來五年更有可能比市場增長更快。</p>
<p>誠然，營收增長放緩是一個問題，而 47% 的年度利潤增長預測可能過於樂觀。</p>
<p>然而，即使營收增長穩定在 20% 的年度範圍內，也足以激發 Shopify 的顯著盈利增長，現在 Shopify 再次盈利。考慮到預測的到 2030 年電子商務行業的 19% 複合年增長率，Shopify 處於從行業持續助推中受益的有利位置。</p>

SHOP

<p>Shopify（SHOP）在過去五年中股價波動顯著，在疫情期間達到峯值，然後在 2022 年失去了 87% 的價值。儘管最近有所復甦，但仍低於 2021 年的最高點。該公司在出售物流部門後將重點轉向盈利能力，並預計將受益於預計到 2030 年電子商務行業的 19% 複合年增長率。分析師預測未來五年每年利潤增長率為 47%，儘管對於收入增長放緩的擔憂仍然存在。總體而言，Shopify 在未來幾年可能會表現優於市場</p>

<p><strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 0.64%) shareholders have experienced an eventful five years. The stock surged into the stratosphere during the pandemic's height, only to lose up to 87% of its value when people resumed their offline shopping habits in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 0.64%) 的股東在過去五年經歷了許多波折。股價在疫情高峰期飆升至天際，但在 2022 年人們恢復線下購物習慣時暴跌了高達 87%。</p>
</div><p>Although it has experienced a considerable resurgence since then, it still sells for less than 50% of its 2021 high. The question for investors is whether it can beat the market over the next five years, or whether business conditions are likely to derail its recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管此後經歷了相當大的復甦，但仍低於 2021 年的高點不到 50%。投資者面臨的問題是，它能否在未來五年擊敗市場，或者業務狀況是否可能擾亂其復甦。</p>
</div><h2>Where Shopify stands as a company</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Shopify 公司現狀</h2>
</div><p>Shopify began as a merchant solution. It stood out in the highly competitive e-commerce platform environment by offering highly customizable, no-code websites. Because slow website speeds can lose sales, Shopify also emphasized rapid transactions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shopify 最初是一個商家解決方案。在高度競爭的電子商務平台環境中脱穎而出，通過提供高度可定製的無代碼網站。由於網站速度慢可能導致銷售下降，Shopify 還強調快速交易。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, Shopify has expanded its competitive advantage by offering ancillary services that can make it a one-stop shop for all e-commerce needs. Hence, services as diverse as payment handling, social media management, and raising capital can be handled through Shopify.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，Shopify 通過提供輔助服務擴大了其競爭優勢，可以使其成為滿足所有電子商務需求的一站式購物平台。因此，支付處理、社交媒體管理和籌集資金等多樣化服務都可以通過 Shopify 處理。</p>
</div><p>Shopify also tried to build on this by adding a fulfillment and shipping business. However, the high costs (and likely low margins) of offering such services prompted Shopify to sell its logistics arm. Selling that business has allowed Shopify to return to profitability, which could bode well for the company over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shopify 還嘗試通過增加履約和物流業務來擴大業務。然而，提供此類服務的高成本（以及可能的低利潤率）促使 Shopify 出售其物流部門。出售該業務使 Shopify 重返盈利，這對公司未來五年可能是個好兆頭。</p>
</div><p>Grand View Research forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the e-commerce industry of 19% through 2030. This should mean good things for Shopify, even if it cannot attract customers through offering logistics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Grand View Research 預測到 2030 年電子商務行業的複合年增長率為 19%。即使無法通過提供物流吸引客户，這對 Shopify 應該是個好消息。</p>
</div><h2>Shopify's finances and stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Shopify 的財務狀況和股票</h2>
</div><p>As for the financials, one way to gauge where Shopify is going is to look at the revenue levels of the last few years. Investors will probably see a marked deceleration in revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至於財務狀況，瞭解 Shopify 未來走向的一種方法是查看過去幾年的營收水平。投資者可能會看到營收增長明顯放緩。</p>
</div><p>Revenue growth levels had slowed by 2019, when they fell below 50%. Nonetheless, the pandemic created unexpected demand for online shopping, leading to massive revenue increases in 2020 and 2021. Since then, revenue growth has slowed dramatically.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>Revenue Growth Rate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>57%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2019 年，營收增長率已經放緩，跌破了 50%。然而，疫情引發了對在線購物的意外需求，導致 2020 年和 2021 年營收大幅增加。此後，營收增長急劇放緩。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>營收增長率</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>57%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Shopify annual reports from 2023, 2021, and 2019.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：來自 2023 年、2021 年和 2019 年的 Shopify 年度報告。</p>
</div><p>Price increases in 2023 might have obscured that effect. Still, customers can mitigate that effect by switching to cheaper yearly plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年的價格上漲可能掩蓋了這一效應。不過，客户可以通過轉向更便宜的年度計劃來緩解這一影響。</p>
</div><p>Investors should also remember that Shopify earned $3.9 billion in revenue in the first half of the year. Almost 73% of that came from its merchant solutions rather than the sites themselves, meaning the price increases may have had little effect on growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者還應記住，Shopify 上半年實現了 39 億美元的營收，其中將近 73% 來自商家解決方案而非網站本身，這意味着價格上漲可能對增長影響不大。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, thanks to the sale of the logistics business, Shopify looks to have returned to profitability. Although the company lost $111 million in the first half of 2024, that included a $170 million net income in Q2. This increases the likelihood that it will be profitable for 2024, a hoped-for improvement that likely helped spark the recovery in Shopify stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，由於物流業務的出售，Shopify 看起來已經重返盈利。儘管公司在 2024 年上半年虧損了 1.11 億美元，但其中包括第二季度的 1.7 億美元淨收入。這增加了公司在 2024 年盈利的可能性，這是一個令人期待的改善，可能有助於激發 Shopify 股票的復甦。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, it sells at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 75 and a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 14. While those may sound high, the P/S ratio is far below levels during the pandemic's height, which should reduce concerns related to its valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，它的前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 75，市銷率（P/S）為 14。雖然這些比率聽起來很高，但市銷率遠低於疫情高峰期的水平，這應該減少與其估值相關的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>The P/S ratio also reflects hopes for the future, and analysts' five-year earnings growth prediction calls for 47% annual profit growth on average. Although such forecasts are &#34;way too early&#34; predictions that will likely change when more data becomes available, they indicate that profits can grow dramatically in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市銷率也反映了對未來的期望，分析師對未來五年的盈利增長預測平均為 47%。儘管這樣的預測是 “過早” 的預測，在更多數據可用時可能會發生變化，但它們表明利潤在未來幾年可能會大幅增長。</p>
</div><h2>Shopify in five years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>五年後的 Shopify</h2>
</div><p>Ultimately, Shopify is more likely than not to grow faster than the market over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，Shopify 在未來五年更有可能比市場增長更快。</p>
</div><p>Admittedly, the slowing revenue growth is a concern, and the 47% annual profit growth predictions could prove too optimistic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>誠然，營收增長放緩是一個問題，而 47% 的年度利潤增長預測可能過於樂觀。</p>
</div><p>However, even if revenue growth settles in the 20% annual range, it should be sufficient to spark significant earnings growth now that Shopify is again profitable. Considering the predicted 19% CAGR for e-commerce through 2030, Shopify is well-positioned to benefit from the industry's continued tailwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，即使營收增長穩定在 20% 的年度範圍內，也足以激發 Shopify 的顯著盈利增長，現在 Shopify 再次盈利。考慮到預測的到 2030 年電子商務行業的 19% 複合年增長率，Shopify 處於從行業持續助推中受益的有利位置。</p>
</div>

五年後 Shopify 的股價會如何表現？