<p>全球最大加密貨幣 <strong>比特幣</strong>（BTC 2.56%）的價格今年上漲了近 48%，幾乎是同樣在牛市的更廣泛基準 <strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 表現的兩倍。比特幣目前交易價格約為 62,700 美元（截至 10 月 13 日），低於今年早些時候達到的 73,000 美元的歷史最高點。比特幣會在 2025 年創下新高嗎？讓我們來調查一下。</p>
<h2>明年的環境將會如何？</h2>
<p>比特幣和所有加密貨幣一般來説都是極其波動的資產。市場仍然有很多需要了解的關於這個只有大約 15 年曆史的新資產類別。然而，投資者或多或少將比特幣和其他加密貨幣視為科技股和更具風險的資產。這些資產在降息環境中往往表現更好，因為像國債這樣的安全資產收益不高，使得投資者更有可能追求回報。另一方面，在高息環境中，風險資產表現不佳。然而，比特幣在升息週期中表現比預期要好得多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2aa853c5a846625048f8df9915ccf258.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2aa853c5a846625048f8df9915ccf258.png"/></p>
<p>由 YCharts 提供的比特幣價格數據。</p>
<p>在美聯儲積極加息期間，比特幣表現不佳，但一旦事情穩定下來，表現就好轉了。由於比特幣比市場更具波動性，其中一些原因很可能是由於市場對美聯儲預期的寬鬆。然而，我也認為一些超額表現與投資者日益相信比特幣及其有限供應可以作為對抗通脹和一種 “數字黃金” 的對沖有關。現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETFs）的推出也擴大了市場對這種代幣的曝光。</p>
<p>展望明年，比特幣和加密貨幣行業的前景看起來要好得多。這主要是因為美聯儲在 9 月開始降低聯邦基金利率，市場預計這是一個降息週期的開始。根據 <strong>芝加哥商品交易所集團</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具，該工具查看聯邦基金利率期貨定價，交易員預計美聯儲將把聯邦基金利率從目前的 4.75% 至 5% 的區間降至 2025 年底的 3.25% 至 3.50% 的目標區間。較低的利率通常導致美元走弱。歷史告訴我們，當美元走弱時，比特幣表現良好。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6c8a06eff869e482ecbf08c9d2fc9d56.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6c8a06eff869e482ecbf08c9d2fc9d56.png"/></p>
<p>由 YCharts 提供的比特幣價格數據。</p>
<h2>是否會創下新高？</h2>
<p>投資者應該注意，過去的表現並不代表未來的成功。僅僅因為比特幣在美元走弱時表現良好，並不意味着它總是會表現良好。此外，儘管較低的利率通常導致美元走弱，但其他因素可能影響美元，比如油價。</p>
<p>話雖如此，我相信比特幣明年有望創下新高，部分原因是由於美元走弱的可能性，以及監管形勢對比特幣變得更加清晰。比特幣與社會和一般投資組合的融合程度越高，監管機構就越有可能澄清一些圍繞比特幣的灰色地帶。</p>
<p>美國總統選舉的最終贏家和新政府可能會影響監管環境，當然，無論誰獲勝，我認為監管的明確性是必然的。比特幣明年會達到什麼價格？具體的價格目標我留給分析師，但我認為比特幣是一個長期投資的好選擇，有望在明年和未來幾年創下新高。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特幣今年已經上漲近 48%，交易價格約為 27,700 美元，略低於其 30,000 美元的歷史最高價。加密貨幣的表現受利率影響；較低的利率通常有利於比特幣，因為它們削弱了美元。隨着市場預期美聯儲將降息，比特幣有望在 2025 年達到新高。然而，過往表現並不代表未來成功的保證，監管政策的明晰度也將在比特幣未來走勢中發揮關鍵作用</p>

<p>The price of the world's largest cryptocurrency <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 2.56%) has risen nearly 48% this year, almost doubling the performance of the broader benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, which has also been on a bull run this year. Bitcoin currently trades for around $62,700 (as of Oct. 13), below all-time highs reached earlier this year of $73,000. Will Bitcoin hit a new high in 2025? Let's investigate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球最大加密貨幣 <strong>比特幣</strong>（BTC 2.56%）的價格今年上漲了近 48%，幾乎是同樣在牛市的更廣泛基準 <strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 表現的兩倍。比特幣目前交易價格約為 62,700 美元（截至 10 月 13 日），低於今年早些時候達到的 73,000 美元的歷史最高點。比特幣會在 2025 年創下新高嗎？讓我們來調查一下。</p>
</div><h2>What will the environment be like next year?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>明年的環境將會如何？</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies in general are extremely volatile assets. The market still has a lot to learn about this new class of assets that is only about 15 years old. However, investors have more or less viewed Bitcoin and other cryptos similarly to tech stocks and riskier assets. These assets tend to perform better in a falling-rate environment because safer assets like Treasury Bills don't yield as much, making investors more likely to reach for returns. On the other hand, riskier assets don't fare as well in a higher-rate environment. Still, Bitcoin held up much better than expected during the rising interest rate cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣和所有加密貨幣一般來説都是極其波動的資產。市場仍然有很多需要了解的關於這個只有大約 15 年曆史的新資產類別。然而，投資者或多或少將比特幣和其他加密貨幣視為科技股和更具風險的資產。這些資產在降息環境中往往表現更好，因為像國債這樣的安全資產收益不高，使得投資者更有可能追求回報。另一方面，在高息環境中，風險資產表現不佳。然而，比特幣在升息週期中表現比預期要好得多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2aa853c5a846625048f8df9915ccf258.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2aa853c5a846625048f8df9915ccf258.png"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin Price data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 YCharts 提供的比特幣價格數據。</p>
</div><p>While the Fed was actively raising interest rates, Bitcoin underperformed the broader market but performed better once things settled. Because Bitcoin is more volatile than the market, some of this was likely due to the Fed's anticipated easing. However, I also think some of the outperformance was related to investors' growing belief that Bitcoin and its finite supply could serve as a hedge against inflation and a form of &#34;digital gold.&#34; The launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also expanded market exposure to the token.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美聯儲積極加息期間，比特幣表現不佳，但一旦事情穩定下來，表現就好轉了。由於比特幣比市場更具波動性，其中一些原因很可能是由於市場對美聯儲預期的寬鬆。然而，我也認為一些超額表現與投資者日益相信比特幣及其有限供應可以作為對抗通脹和一種 “數字黃金” 的對沖有關。現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETFs）的推出也擴大了市場對這種代幣的曝光。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead to next year, conditions look much better for Bitcoin and the crypto sector. That's mainly because the Federal Reserve began lowering its federal funds rate in September, the beginning of what the market expects to be an interest rate-cutting cycle. According to <strong>CME Group</strong>'s FedWatch Tool, which looks at futures pricing on the federal funds rate, traders expect the Fed to drop the federal funds rate from its current range of 4.75% to 5% to a target range of 3.25% to 3.50% by the end of 2025. Lower interest rates typically lead to a weaker dollar. History tells us that Bitcoin performs well when the U.S. dollar weakens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望明年，比特幣和加密貨幣行業的前景看起來要好得多。這主要是因為美聯儲在 9 月開始降低聯邦基金利率，市場預計這是一個降息週期的開始。根據 <strong>芝加哥商品交易所集團</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具，該工具查看聯邦基金利率期貨定價，交易員預計美聯儲將把聯邦基金利率從目前的 4.75% 至 5% 的區間降至 2025 年底的 3.25% 至 3.50% 的目標區間。較低的利率通常導致美元走弱。歷史告訴我們，當美元走弱時，比特幣表現良好。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6c8a06eff869e482ecbf08c9d2fc9d56.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6c8a06eff869e482ecbf08c9d2fc9d56.png"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin Price data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 YCharts 提供的比特幣價格數據。</p>
</div><h2>Will there be new highs?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>是否會創下新高？</h2>
</div><p>Investors should note that past performance does not indicate future success. Just because Bitcoin has performed well with a weaker dollar doesn't mean it always will. Additionally, while lower rates typically lead to a weaker dollar, other factors could impact the buck, such as oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者應該注意，過去的表現並不代表未來的成功。僅僅因為比特幣在美元走弱時表現良好，並不意味着它總是會表現良好。此外，儘管較低的利率通常導致美元走弱，但其他因素可能影響美元，比如油價。</p>
</div><p>That said, I do believe Bitcoin is poised for new highs next year, partly due to the likelihood of a weaker dollar and as the regulatory picture becomes clearer for Bitcoin. The more integrated Bitcoin becomes with society and as an investment in the general portfolio, the more likely are regulators to clarify some of the gray areas around Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>話雖如此，我相信比特幣明年有望創下新高，部分原因是由於美元走弱的可能性，以及監管形勢對比特幣變得更加清晰。比特幣與社會和一般投資組合的融合程度越高，監管機構就越有可能澄清一些圍繞比特幣的灰色地帶。</p>
</div><p>The ultimate winner of the U.S. presidential election and the incoming administration could impact the regulatory landscape, of course, but regardless of the winner, I think regulatory clarity is an eventuality. What price will Bitcoin hit next year? I'll leave a specific price target to the analysts, but I think Bitcoin is a good long-term buy poised for new highs next year and the years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國總統選舉的最終贏家和新政府可能會影響監管環境，當然，無論誰獲勝，我認為監管的明確性是必然的。比特幣明年會達到什麼價格？具體的價格目標我留給分析師，但我認為比特幣是一個長期投資的好選擇，有望在明年和未來幾年創下新高。</p>
</div>

Will Bitcoin Hit a New High in 2025?

- 比特幣今年上漲近 48%，表現優於標普 500 指數。  
- 美聯儲開始降息，市場預期將推動比特幣價格上漲。  
- 投資者對比特幣作為對抗通脹的工具信心增強。  

比特幣會在 2025 年達到新高嗎？