<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2022/08/1642843877101-a96c9f0f-4961-4a29-9982-71dd9cd216fb.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2022/08/1642843877101-a96c9f0f-4961-4a29-9982-71dd9cd216fb.jpg"/></p>
<p>隨着第三季度財報季的開始，德國 DAX 40 指數接近歷史最高點，交易於 19,432 歐元附近，略低於 19,630 歐元的紀錄高點。</p>
<h2>歐洲央行決策在即</h2>
<p>隨着歐洲央行準備就 11 月貨幣政策會議發表講話，DAX 指數仍處於緊張狀態。</p>
<p>預計央行將在會議中進行本年度第三次 0.25% 的降息，將基準利率降至 3.25%。</p>
<p>最近的經濟數據顯示，歐洲央行面臨着加大降息壓力。週三公佈的數據顯示，法國和意大利等主要國家的消費者價格指數（CPI）在 10 月持續下降。</p>
<p>在意大利，消費者價格指數（CPI）在 9 月下降了 0.2%，同比下降至 0.7%。年度通脹報告遠低於歐洲央行的 2.0% 目標。</p>
<p>初步報告顯示，歐洲通脹數據也在 9 月降至 1.7%，低於 2022 年的 10.6%。</p>
<p>與此同時，隨着勞動力市場開始出現疲軟跡象，歐洲經濟表現不佳。例如，德國的大型僱主大眾汽車和巴斯夫考慮大規模裁員，因需求下降。</p>
<p>因此，歐洲央行可能決定降息以刺激經濟，使資本獲取變得廉價。</p>
<p>歐洲債券市場反映了歐洲央行進一步寬鬆的可能性。德國 10 年期國債收益率下降至 2.20%，低於週五的 2.30% 和 6 月的 2.7%。五年期國債收益率也回落至 2.04%。</p>
<h2>央行寬鬆政策與中國</h2>
<p>其他全球央行有繼續降息的空間。在美國，美聯儲在上次會議中進行了大幅降息，11 月 0.25% 的降息可能性增加。</p>
<p>英格蘭銀行、瑞士國家銀行（SNB）和瑞典央行等央行在過去幾個月也降息。</p>
<p>當未來降息機會增加時，DAX 指數和其他中國公司表現良好。</p>
<p>與此同時，DAX 指數創下歷史新高，因為中國在過去幾周內大舉放水。</p>
<p>官方宣佈了價值數十億美元的多項刺激計劃，以刺激經濟增長。</p>
<p>例如，央行將利率降至接近零，並在銀行規則上更加靈活。</p>
<p>中國的情況對 DAX 指數至關重要，因為該指數中許多公司在中國開展大量業務。例如，大眾汽車和寶馬等汽車製造商將中國視為最大市場之一。</p>
<h2>企業財報在即</h2>
<p>DAX 指數的下一個重要催化劑是美國和德國正在進行的財報季。</p>
<p>大多數美國公司如高盛、摩根大通和摩根士丹利發佈了強勁的業績。這些銀行受益於較高的利率和持續的股票交易狂潮。</p>
<p>預計德國公司也將在不久後發佈業績。儘管公司發佈了強勁的財務業績和前瞻指引，阿迪達斯股價週二下跌超過 6%。公司預計今年將實現 12 億歐元的營收，得益於其 Gazelle 和 Samba 品牌。</p>
<p>德國最大公司 SAP 將在下週成為下一個發佈財務業績的頂級公司。這些數字將在股價因雲和人工智能動能而飆升至歷史高位時發佈。SAP 股價從 2022 年最低點上漲了超過 170%。</p>
<p>在 SAP 之後，下一個值得關注的頂級公司將是德國最大銀行德意志銀行，將於週三發佈。拜爾斯道夫和梅賽德斯 - 奔馳集團也將在下週發佈業績。</p>
<p>大多數 DAX 指數成分股今年表現良好。西門子能源從 2023 年表現最差的公司變為今年表現最佳，漲幅超過 190%。萊茵金屬、MTU 航空、德商銀行、SAP 和 Zalando 等公司也是其他表現最佳的公司。</p>
<h2>DAX 指數預測</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/DAX-index-1024x568.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/DAX-index-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p>周線圖顯示，DAX 指數在過去幾年中一直處於強勁的牛市中。從 2022 年的低點 11,905 歐元上漲至 19,432 歐元以上。在此過程中，形成了一個上升通道模式，並保持在 50 周和 100 周指數移動平均線（EMA）之上。</p>
<p>MACD 和相對強度指數（RSI）形成了一個熊市背離模式。因此，雖然可能會出現更多漲勢，但指數在未來幾周可能會出現一些波動。這意味着它可能會重新測試重要的心理支撐位 19,000 歐元。</p>
<p>關於 SAP、德意志銀行和梅賽德斯業績的 DAX 指數分析文章首發於 Invezz</p>

MBGYY

<p>DAX 40 指數接近其 19,630 歐元的歷史最高水平，目前交投於 19,432 歐元，第三季度盈利季開始。隨着歐洲央行（ECB）就可能的 0.25% 利率降息做出決定，市場預期逐漸增加，這受到主要國家通脹率下降的影響。該指數的表現得到了中國的刺激措施和主要公司強勁盈利的支撐。預計即將公佈的 SAP、德意志銀行和梅賽德斯的報告將進一步影響該指數，今年該指數已經實現了顯著增長，從 2022 年的 11,905 歐元上漲至當前水平</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2022/08/1642843877101-a96c9f0f-4961-4a29-9982-71dd9cd216fb.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2022/08/1642843877101-a96c9f0f-4961-4a29-9982-71dd9cd216fb.jpg"/></p>
<p>The DAX 40 index was hovering near its all-time high as the third quarter earnings season started, and as traders waited for the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) decision. It was trading at €19,432, a few points below the record high of €19,630.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着第三季度財報季的開始，德國 DAX 40 指數接近歷史最高點，交易於 19,432 歐元附近，略低於 19,630 歐元的紀錄高點。</p>
</div><h2>European Central Bank decision ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歐洲央行決策在即</h2>
</div><p>The DAX index remained on edge as the ECB prepared to deliver its November monetary policy meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着歐洲央行準備就 11 月貨幣政策會議發表講話，DAX 指數仍處於緊張狀態。</p>
</div><p>In it, the bank is expected to deliver the third 0.25% rate cut of the year, bringing the base interest rate to 3.25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計央行將在會議中進行本年度第三次 0.25% 的降息，將基準利率降至 3.25%。</p>
</div><p>Recent economic numbers show why the ECB is under increased pressure to cut interest rates. Data released on Wednesday showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in key countries like France and Italy continued falling in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的經濟數據顯示，歐洲央行面臨着加大降息壓力。週三公佈的數據顯示，法國和意大利等主要國家的消費者價格指數（CPI）在 10 月持續下降。</p>
</div><p>In Italy, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped by 0.2% in September and to 0.7% on a year-on-year basis. The annual inflation report has moved much lower than the ECB’s target of 2.0%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在意大利，消費者價格指數（CPI）在 9 月下降了 0.2%，同比下降至 0.7%。年度通脹報告遠低於歐洲央行的 2.0% 目標。</p>
</div><p>The preliminary report showed that the European inflation data also dropped to 1.7% in September, down from over 10.6% in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初步報告顯示，歐洲通脹數據也在 9 月降至 1.7%，低於 2022 年的 10.6%。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the European economy was not doing well as the labor market started to show signs of weakening. For one, some big employers in Germany like Volkswagen and BASF are considering large layoffs as demand wanes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，隨着勞動力市場開始出現疲軟跡象，歐洲經濟表現不佳。例如，德國的大型僱主大眾汽車和巴斯夫考慮大規模裁員，因需求下降。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the ECB will likely decide to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy by making it cheap to access capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，歐洲央行可能決定降息以刺激經濟，使資本獲取變得廉價。</p>
</div><p>The odds of more easing by the ECB are reflected in the bond market. The German 10-year bund yields dropped to 2.20%, down from 2.30% on Friday and 2.7% in June. The five-year bund yield also retreated to 2.04%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲債券市場反映了歐洲央行進一步寬鬆的可能性。德國 10 年期國債收益率下降至 2.20%，低於週五的 2.30% 和 6 月的 2.7%。五年期國債收益率也回落至 2.04%。</p>
</div><h2>Central banks easing and China</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>央行寬鬆政策與中國</h2>
</div><p>Other global central banks have room to continue cutting interest rates. In the US, the Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo rate cut in its last meeting, and the odds of a 0.25% cut in November have risen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他全球央行有繼續降息的空間。在美國，美聯儲在上次會議中進行了大幅降息，11 月 0.25% 的降息可能性增加。</p>
</div><p>Central banks like the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank (SNB), and Riksbank have also slashed rates in the past few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英格蘭銀行、瑞士國家銀行（SNB）和瑞典央行等央行在過去幾個月也降息。</p>
</div><p>The DAX index and other Chinese firms do well when there are rising chances of more rate cuts in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當未來降息機會增加時，DAX 指數和其他中國公司表現良好。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the DAX index has risen to a record high because China has opened the floodgates of money in the past few weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，DAX 指數創下歷史新高，因為中國在過去幾周內大舉放水。</p>
</div><p>Officials have announced several stimulus packages worth billions of dollars to stimulate an economy that is weakening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官方宣佈了價值數十億美元的多項刺激計劃，以刺激經濟增長。</p>
</div><p>For example, the central bank has brought interest rates to near zero and become more flexible on bank rules.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，央行將利率降至接近零，並在銀行規則上更加靈活。</p>
</div><p>The happenings in China are important for the DAX index because many companies in the index do a lot of business there. For example, automakers like Volkswagen and BMW count China as one of their biggest markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國的情況對 DAX 指數至關重要，因為該指數中許多公司在中國開展大量業務。例如，大眾汽車和寶馬等汽車製造商將中國視為最大市場之一。</p>
</div><h2>Corporate earnings ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>企業財報在即</h2>
</div><p>The next important catalyst for the DAX index ist the ongoing earnings season in the US and Germany.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DAX 指數的下一個重要催化劑是美國和德國正在進行的財報季。</p>
</div><p>Most US companies like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley published strong numbers. These banks have been helped by higher interest rates and the ongoing stock trading frenzy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數美國公司如高盛、摩根大通和摩根士丹利發佈了強勁的業績。這些銀行受益於較高的利率和持續的股票交易狂潮。</p>
</div><p>German companies are also expected to publish their numbers in the near term. Adidas stock price retreated by over 6% on Tuesday even after the company published strong financial results and forward guidance. It expects to make €1.2 billion in revenue this year, helped by its Gazelle and Samba brands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計德國公司也將在不久後發佈業績。儘管公司發佈了強勁的財務業績和前瞻指引，阿迪達斯股價週二下跌超過 6%。公司預計今年將實現 12 億歐元的營收，得益於其 Gazelle 和 Samba 品牌。</p>
</div><p>SAP, the biggest company in Germany, will be the next top firm to publish its financial results next week. These numbers will come at a time when the stock has surged to a record high, helped by its momentum on cloud and artificial intelligence. SAP shares have rallied by over 170% from the lowest level in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國最大公司 SAP 將在下週成為下一個發佈財務業績的頂級公司。這些數字將在股價因雲和人工智能動能而飆升至歷史高位時發佈。SAP 股價從 2022 年最低點上漲了超過 170%。</p>
</div><p>After SAP, the next top company to watch will be Deutsche Bank, the biggest bank in the country, which will release on Wednesday. Beiersdorf and Mercedes Benz Group will also release their numbers next week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 SAP 之後，下一個值得關注的頂級公司將是德國最大銀行德意志銀行，將於週三發佈。拜爾斯道夫和梅賽德斯 - 奔馳集團也將在下週發佈業績。</p>
</div><p>Most DAX index constituents have done well this year. Siemens Energy moved from the worst performer in 2023 to the best this year as it soared by over 190%. Other firms like Rheinmetall, MTU Aero, Commerzbank, SAP, and Zalando are the other top performers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數 DAX 指數成分股今年表現良好。西門子能源從 2023 年表現最差的公司變為今年表現最佳，漲幅超過 190%。萊茵金屬、MTU 航空、德商銀行、SAP 和 Zalando 等公司也是其他表現最佳的公司。</p>
</div><h2>DAX index forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>DAX 指數預測</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/DAX-index-1024x568.png" alt="" original-src="https://ik.imagekit.io/invezz/uploads/2024/10/DAX-index-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p>The weekly chart shows that the DAX index has been in a strong bull run in the past few years. It has risen from the 2022 low of €11,905 to over €19,432. Along the way, it has formed an ascending channel pattern, and remained above the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周線圖顯示，DAX 指數在過去幾年中一直處於強勁的牛市中。從 2022 年的低點 11,905 歐元上漲至 19,432 歐元以上。在此過程中，形成了一個上升通道模式，並保持在 50 周和 100 周指數移動平均線（EMA）之上。</p>
</div><p>The MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have formed a bearish divergence pattern. Therefore, while more gains are likely to happen, the index may show some volatility in the coming weeks. This means that it may retest the important psychological point at €19,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MACD 和相對強度指數（RSI）形成了一個熊市背離模式。因此，雖然可能會出現更多漲勢，但指數在未來幾周可能會出現一些波動。這意味着它可能會重新測試重要的心理支撐位 19,000 歐元。</p>
</div><p>The post DAX index analysis ahead of SAP, Deutsche Bank, Mercedes earnings appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於 SAP、德意志銀行和梅賽德斯業績的 DAX 指數分析文章首發於 Invezz</p>
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在 SAP、德意志銀行和梅賽德斯發佈財報之前的 DAX 指數分析