<p><strong>Upstart Holdings</strong>(UPST -4.29%) 可能是零利率在 2020 年至 2021 年之間引發的 “一切泡沫” 中的典型代表。該股從約 20 美元飆升至近 400 美元，隨後在 2022 年利率飆升並爆破泡沫後跌至 12 美元左右。</p>
<p>不要忽視，Upstart 已經獲得了一些令人印象深刻的勢頭。股價在過去一年中翻了一番多，其中大部分是在美聯儲最近自疫情爆發以來首次降低經濟基準利率之後。</p>
<p>這次對於 Upstart 來説情況是否不同，或者會再次以糟糕的結局收場？</p>
<p>以下是今天 Upstart 是買入、賣出還是持有。</p>
<h2>為什麼利率對 Upstart 如此重要</h2>
<p>過去幾年美國貨幣政策異常波動。COVID-19 危機導致美聯儲將利率設定為零，然後數十年來最高的通貨膨脹導致其迅速提高利率，速度是現代史上最快的。我認為這種劇烈變動和市場泡沫可能誇大了 Upstart 的股價波動，但利率確實會影響基礎業務。</p>
<p>Upstart 利用人工智能（AI）評估借款人的貸款。雖然個人貸款是 Upstart 的核心業務，但它逐漸擴展到其他產品，如汽車貸款和房屋淨值信貸。基本上，Upstart 批准貸款然後將其出售給機構投資者。</p>
<p>低利率對經濟有涓涓細流的影響。當利率較低時，消費者可以更便宜地借款，導致更高的貸款需求，這在 2020 年和 2021 年激發了 Upstart 的業務。</p>
<p>該公司盈利且增長迅速：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b68b39b30dbe79b1de4e09efa8276fa7.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b68b39b30dbe79b1de4e09efa8276fa7.png"/></p>
<p>UPST 營收（TTM）數據來源：YCharts</p>
<p>然後，利率上升得 <strong>如此之快</strong>，以至於貸款需求迅速枯竭。不僅借款人減少，而且投資者也不再願意購買。Upstart 不得不將它們留在資產負債表上，這損害了公司的財務狀況並造成了困境。由於沒有地方出售或保留貸款，Upstart 不得不剎車其業務。</p>
<p>那麼，為什麼 Upstart 再次起飛？最近的降息信號表明最糟糕的時期可能已經過去。雖然利率可能不會回到零，但較低的利率應該有助於 Upstart 再次轉動起來。</p>
<h2>儘管有一些積極因素，風險仍然存在</h2>
<p>過去兩年很痛苦，但 Upstart 在業務各個方面都在逐漸取得進展。</p>
<p>它逐漸與投資者達成協議，出售其貸款並安排承諾的資本，以幫助防止再次發生困境。Upstart 還不斷宣佈與合作銀行和信用社網絡的新成員，表明 Upstart 的技術和借款人看到的潛在價值。最重要的是，Upstart 發佈的數據顯示，其人工智能技術可以比傳統信用評分更好地識別風險借款人。</p>
<p>這一切都很好，但現實是 Upstart 仍然是一隻非常投機的股票。</p>
<p>目前尚不清楚利率能降到多低。經濟數據保持足夠穩定，以至於一些人已經稱美聯儲最初的 50 個基點降息是一個錯誤。如果通貨膨脹再次飆升，可能會將經濟和市場狀況推回導致 Upstart 最初失控的噩夢般情景。</p>
<p>最終，Upstart 必須證明它可以在沒有低利率的情況下蓬勃發展。在未來幾個季度內，它可以做到，但目前尚未做到。這並非不可能。<strong>Affirm</strong> 有類似的核心業務模式，自從適應更高利率以來，該公司一直蓬勃發展。</p>
<h2>股票是買入、賣出還是持有？</h2>
<p>Upstart 的技術似乎有效，公司已經展示了當足夠多的貸款通過其平台流動時可以有多賺錢。儘管如此，由於不可預測的經濟因素直接影響 Upstart 的增長和基本面，很難確定股票的公平價值。過去一年，做空者一直在拋售 Upstart；最近的數據顯示，超過 30% 的 Upstart 公開股份被做空，因此做空壓力可能有助於解釋股票近幾周的強勁勢頭。</p>
<p>結論？Upstart 是一個買入，但有一些注意事項。</p>
<p>該股適合風險承受能力強的投資者，他們將等待並看看 Upstart 是否能在未來幾個季度實現增長。如果購買，請使用分批定投，以避免不幸的時機選擇可能導致您的投資陷入困境。</p>

UPST

<p>Upstart Holdings（UPST）在過去一年中股價翻了一番，這主要得益於美聯儲降息。該公司利用人工智能評估借款人，但在利率大幅上升時面臨挑戰，導致貸款需求下降。儘管最近取得了進展並建立了合作伙伴關係，但 Upstart 仍然具有投機性質，風險與經濟狀況相關。分析師建議風險承受能力強的投資者購買該股，並推薦分批定投以減輕時間風險</p>

<p><strong>Upstart Holdings</strong>(UPST -4.29%) was arguably the poster child of the &#34;Everything Bubble&#34; that zero-percent interest rates caused between 2020 and 2021. The stock soared from about $20 to nearly $400 before tumbling as low as $12 after interest rates rocketed higher in 2022 and burst the bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Upstart Holdings</strong>(UPST -4.29%) 可能是零利率在 2020 年至 2021 年之間引發的 “一切泡沫” 中的典型代表。該股從約 20 美元飆升至近 400 美元，隨後在 2022 年利率飆升並爆破泡沫後跌至 12 美元左右。</p>
</div><p>Don't look now, but Upstart has picked up some impressive momentum. Shares have more than doubled over the past year -- most of that after the Federal Reserve recently cut the economy's benchmark interest rate for the first time since the pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要忽視，Upstart 已經獲得了一些令人印象深刻的勢頭。股價在過去一年中翻了一番多，其中大部分是在美聯儲最近自疫情爆發以來首次降低經濟基準利率之後。</p>
</div><p>Are things different for Upstart this time, or will this end badly again?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這次對於 Upstart 來説情況是否不同，或者會再次以糟糕的結局收場？</p>
</div><p>Here is whether Upstart is a buy, sell, or hold today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是今天 Upstart 是買入、賣出還是持有。</p>
</div><h2>Why interest rates matter so much to Upstart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼利率對 Upstart 如此重要</h2>
</div><p>The past few years have been unusually volatile for U.S. monetary policy. A crisis in COVID-19 caused the Federal Reserve to set rates at zero, and then the highest inflation in decades caused it to jack rates higher, the fastest in modern history. I would argue that this whipsaw and the market bubble probably exaggerated Upstart's price fluctuations, but interest rates do impact the underlying business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去幾年美國貨幣政策異常波動。COVID-19 危機導致美聯儲將利率設定為零，然後數十年來最高的通貨膨脹導致其迅速提高利率，速度是現代史上最快的。我認為這種劇烈變動和市場泡沫可能誇大了 Upstart 的股價波動，但利率確實會影響基礎業務。</p>
</div><p>Upstart uses artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate borrowers for loans. Although personal loans are Upstart's core segment, it has gradually expanded into additional products, like automotive loans and home equity lines of credit. Essentially, Upstart approves loans and then sells them to institutional investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 利用人工智能（AI）評估借款人的貸款。雖然個人貸款是 Upstart 的核心業務，但它逐漸擴展到其他產品，如汽車貸款和房屋淨值信貸。基本上，Upstart 批准貸款然後將其出售給機構投資者。</p>
</div><p>Low interest rates have a trickle-down effect on the economy. When interest rates are lower, consumers can borrow more cheaply, causing higher loan demand that electrified Upstart's business in 2020 and 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低利率對經濟有涓涓細流的影響。當利率較低時，消費者可以更便宜地借款，導致更高的貸款需求，這在 2020 年和 2021 年激發了 Upstart 的業務。</p>
</div><p>The company was profitable and growing rapidly:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司盈利且增長迅速：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b68b39b30dbe79b1de4e09efa8276fa7.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b68b39b30dbe79b1de4e09efa8276fa7.png"/></p>
<p>UPST Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UPST 營收（TTM）數據來源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>Then, interest rates rose <em>so fast</em> that loan demand quickly dried up. Not only did fewer borrowers want loans, but investors stopped wanting to buy them. Upstart had to hold them on its balance sheet, which hurt the company's financial health and created a logjam. It had to slam the brakes on its business since it had nowhere to sell or keep the loans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然後，利率上升得 <strong>如此之快</strong>，以至於貸款需求迅速枯竭。不僅借款人減少，而且投資者也不再願意購買。Upstart 不得不將它們留在資產負債表上，這損害了公司的財務狀況並造成了困境。由於沒有地方出售或保留貸款，Upstart 不得不剎車其業務。</p>
</div><p>So, why is Upstart taking off again? The recent rate cut signals that the worst is likely over for Upstart. While rates probably won't return to zero, lower rates should help Upstart turn its wheels again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，為什麼 Upstart 再次起飛？最近的降息信號表明最糟糕的時期可能已經過去。雖然利率可能不會回到零，但較低的利率應該有助於 Upstart 再次轉動起來。</p>
</div><h2>Risks remain despite some positives</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>儘管有一些積極因素，風險仍然存在</h2>
</div><p>The past two years were painful, but Upstart has slowly made progress across its business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去兩年很痛苦，但 Upstart 在業務各個方面都在逐漸取得進展。</p>
</div><p>It has gradually worked out deals with investors to sell its loans and arrange committed capital to help prevent another log jam from happening. Upstart has also continued announcing new additions to its partner banks and credit unions network, signaling some validity to Upstart's technology and the potential value lenders see in it. Most importantly, Upstart has released data showing that its AI technology can sniff out risky borrowers better than a traditional credit score.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它逐漸與投資者達成協議，出售其貸款並安排承諾的資本，以幫助防止再次發生困境。Upstart 還不斷宣佈與合作銀行和信用社網絡的新成員，表明 Upstart 的技術和借款人看到的潛在價值。最重要的是，Upstart 發佈的數據顯示，其人工智能技術可以比傳統信用評分更好地識別風險借款人。</p>
</div><p>That's all good, but the reality is that Upstart remains a very speculative stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一切都很好，但現實是 Upstart 仍然是一隻非常投機的股票。</p>
</div><p>It's unclear how low rates can go. Economic data has remained solid enough that some have already called the Federal Reserve's initial 50-basis-point rate cut a mistake. And if inflation spikes again, it could push economic and market conditions back toward the nightmarish scenario that sent Upstart off the rails in the first place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前尚不清楚利率能降到多低。經濟數據保持足夠穩定，以至於一些人已經稱美聯儲最初的 50 個基點降息是一個錯誤。如果通貨膨脹再次飆升，可能會將經濟和市場狀況推回導致 Upstart 最初失控的噩夢般情景。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, Upstart must prove it can thrive without low rates. It can do that over the coming quarters, but it hasn't done it yet. It's not impossible, either. <strong>Affirm</strong> has a similar core business model, and the company has thrived since adapting to higher rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，Upstart 必須證明它可以在沒有低利率的情況下蓬勃發展。在未來幾個季度內，它可以做到，但目前尚未做到。這並非不可能。<strong>Affirm</strong> 有類似的核心業務模式，自從適應更高利率以來，該公司一直蓬勃發展。</p>
</div><h2>Is the stock a buy, sell, or hold?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票是買入、賣出還是持有？</h2>
</div><p>Upstart's technology seems to work, and the company has shown how profitable it can be when enough loans flow through its platform. That said, it's tough to figure out what a fair value for the stock might be since unpredictable economic factors directly impact Upstart's growth and fundamentals. Short-sellers have piled on Upstart over the past year; recent data indicates that over 30% of Upstart's public shares were short, so a short squeeze could help explain the stock's strong momentum in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 的技術似乎有效，公司已經展示了當足夠多的貸款通過其平台流動時可以有多賺錢。儘管如此，由於不可預測的經濟因素直接影響 Upstart 的增長和基本面，很難確定股票的公平價值。過去一年，做空者一直在拋售 Upstart；最近的數據顯示，超過 30% 的 Upstart 公開股份被做空，因此做空壓力可能有助於解釋股票近幾周的強勁勢頭。</p>
</div><p>The verdict? Upstart is a buy but with some caveats.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結論？Upstart 是一個買入，但有一些注意事項。</p>
</div><p>The stock is best suited for risk-tolerant investors who will wait and see whether Upstart can deliver growth over the coming quarters. If you buy, use dollar-cost averaging to avoid unlucky timing that could put you deep underwater on your investment if the stock zigzags.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該股適合風險承受能力強的投資者，他們將等待並看看 Upstart 是否能在未來幾個季度實現增長。如果購買，請使用分批定投，以避免不幸的時機選擇可能導致您的投資陷入困境。</p>
</div>

Upstart Holdings: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

- Upstart Holdings 的股價在低利率環境下曾大幅上漲，後因利率上升暴跌。  
- 最近利率下調，Upstart 股價回升，顯示出一定的增長潛力。  
- 儘管前景樂觀，但 Upstart 仍面臨市場波動和經濟不確定性風險。

Upstart Holdings：是該買入、賣出還是持有？