<p>近年來最大的結構性增長動力之一是人工智能（AI）的出現。去年初人工智能的最新進展引起了轟動，市值達到 1 萬億美元俱樂部的公司名單中，充斥着處於這一下一代技術前沿的企業。</p>
<p>例如，<strong>蘋果</strong> 產品，包括 Siri 和地圖，一直在擁抱人工智能，而 <strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 通過將人工智能深度整合到各自的業務運營中，構築了看似不可逾越的壕溝。<strong>英偉達</strong> 和 <strong>台積電</strong> 開發了使人工智能成為可能的芯片。</p>
<p><strong>奈飛</strong>(NFLX 11.09%) 是人工智能的先驅之一，利用尖端算法指導其流媒體推薦和製作選擇，然而，該公司已經失寵於一些熱衷追逐最新潮事物的人。投資者可能會驚訝地發現，奈飛剛剛交出了又一個增長兩位數的季度。市值僅為 3240 億美元，或許為奈飛加入萬億美元俱樂部還為時過早，然而，股價在過去一年中上漲了超過 100%，過去十年上漲了 1380%，證據表明其上升勢頭將繼續。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ2MzEvYS1ob2xvZ3JhcGhpYy1kaXNwbGF5LW9mLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy1hYm92ZS1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ2MzEvYS1ob2xvZ3JhcGhpYy1kaXNwbGF5LW9mLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy1hYm92ZS1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>看漲的結果</h2>
<p>奈飛剛剛公佈了其第三季度業績，各項重要指標均超出預期。98.3 億美元的營收同比增長 15%，盈利增長強勁，每股收益（EPS）達 5.40 美元，同比飆升 45%。營收得益於強勁的付費訂閲增長，增加了 500 多萬，增長了 14%。底線受益於擴大的營運利潤率，增長了驚人的 720 個基點，達到 29.6%。</p>
<p>值得一提的是，分析師的共識預期是營收為 97.7 億美元，每股收益為 5.12 美元，伴隨着 450 萬的新增訂户，因此奈飛在各方面都超出預期。</p>
<p>或許更重要的是，管理層預計其增長勢頭將繼續。奈飛預計第四季度營收將達到 101 億美元，增長近 15%，而每股收益將超過 4.23 美元。</p>
<h2>增長的增量槓桿</h2>
<p>在討論業績的電話會議上，奈飛闡明瞭繼續實現強勁增長的計劃，重點突出了三個特別重要的機會。</p>
<p>奈飛一直在涉足視頻遊戲領域，但公司開始看到觀眾對基於公司不斷增長的知識產權庫的遊戲表現出更大興趣。管理層特別看好基於《<strong>烏賊遊戲</strong>》的遊戲。</p>
<p>管理層還在加大對最近成功的現場活動的投入。奈飛正在直播 11 月 15 日邁克·泰森和傑克·保羅之間的拳擊比賽。該公司還擁有兩場聖誕節 NFL 比賽的獨家轉播權：超級碗 LVII 冠軍堪薩斯城酋長隊對匹茲堡鋼人隊，以及巴爾的摩烏鴉隊對休斯頓德州人隊。最後，奈飛是 WWE Raw 的新家，這是一檔收視率極高的摔跤娛樂節目，每週的節目將於 2025 年 1 月開始。</p>
<p>然而，公司最大的機會在於其不斷增長的數字廣告業務。奈飛在電話會議中指出，其受眾和廣告庫目前增長速度快於公司利用這一增長的能力。在展示廣告的國家，選擇最低價格廣告套餐的會員季度環比增長 35%，佔新增會員的 50%。</p>
<p>公司有一些旨在加速其廣告業務的重要舉措。首先，奈飛將在本季度開始在加拿大推出其第一方廣告服務器，然後在 2025 年在其餘廣告市場推出。公司還在加大與 <strong>The Trade Desk</strong> 的合作力度，以擴大其廣告覆蓋範圍。奈飛指出，選擇廣告套餐的會員在觀看時間和喜愛的節目方面與其他訂户類似，顯示觀看模式是一致的。管理層預計廣告收入將在 2025 年翻番（基數較小）。</p>
<p>這些舉措每一項都代表着一個增量增長驅動因素，有助於説明奈飛計劃如何繼續實現強勁增長。</p>
<h2>達到 1 萬億美元的路徑</h2>
<p>奈飛目前的市值為 3230 億美元，這意味着其股價需要上漲約 207% 才能將其價值推至 1 萬億美元，但在未來十年內有明確的增長路徑。根據華爾街的預測，預計奈飛將在 2024 年實現 387.4 億美元的營收，使其前瞻性市銷率（P/S）約為 8。假設其市銷率保持不變，奈飛需要將其營收增長到每年約 3570 億美元，以支撐 1 萬億美元的市值。</p>
<p>華爾街目前預測奈飛未來五年的營收增長約為 26%。如果公司實現這一標準，它 <strong>可能</strong> 在 2035 年實現 1 萬億美元的市值。值得注意的是，奈飛過去十年的年營收增長率為 562%，淨收入飆升了 1450%，因此華爾街的展望可能過於保守。此外，正如本季度所示，奈飛有超越華爾街預期的習慣，這也可能縮短這一時間表。</p>
<p>最後，奈飛目前的市盈率約為 39 倍，乍一看可能顯得昂貴，但請考慮：華爾街預計奈飛在 2025 年將實現每股收益 23.11 美元，這將代表一個 30 倍的市盈率，與 <strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 相同。考慮到奈飛強勁的增長記錄和巨大的機會，我認為這是為一家預計在未來五年內實現持續兩位數增長的公司支付的合理價格。</p>

奈飛

<p>奈飛顯示出強勁的增長潛力，最近報告年同比收入增長 15%，達到了 854 億美元，每股收益（EPS）增長 45%，達到 3.40 美元。該公司新增了超過 500 萬訂閲用户，超出了分析師的預期。奈飛計劃擴大數字廣告業務，並利用其遊戲和現場活動機會。目前市值為 2,000 億美元，分析師表示，到 2035 年，奈飛有望加入萬億美元俱樂部，需要股價增長 207%</p>

<p>One of the biggest secular tailwinds in recent years is the advent of artificial intelligence (AI). The latest advancements in AI went viral early last year, and the list of companies in the $1 trillion club is littered with businesses on the leading edge of this next-generation technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年來最大的結構性增長動力之一是人工智能（AI）的出現。去年初人工智能的最新進展引起了轟動，市值達到 1 萬億美元俱樂部的公司名單中，充斥着處於這一下一代技術前沿的企業。</p>
</div><p>For example, <strong>Apple</strong> products -- including Siri and Maps -- have always embraced AI, while <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> have developed seemingly impenetrable moats by integrating AI deeply into their respective business operations. <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> have developed the chips that make AI possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，<strong>蘋果</strong> 產品，包括 Siri 和地圖，一直在擁抱人工智能，而 <strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 通過將人工智能深度整合到各自的業務運營中，構築了看似不可逾越的壕溝。<strong>英偉達</strong> 和 <strong>台積電</strong> 開發了使人工智能成為可能的芯片。</p>
</div><p><strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX 11.09%) is one of the pioneers of AI, using cutting-edge algorithms to inform its streaming recommendations and production choices, yet the company has fallen out of favor with some who are busy chasing the latest shiny new thing. Investors might be surprised to learn that Netflix just delivered another quarter of double-digit growth. With a market cap of just $324 billion, it might seem premature to suggest Netflix is bucking to join its peers in the trillion-dollar club, yet the stock has gained more than 100% over the past year and 1,380% over the past decade, and the evidence suggests its ascent will continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>奈飛</strong>(NFLX 11.09%) 是人工智能的先驅之一，利用尖端算法指導其流媒體推薦和製作選擇，然而，該公司已經失寵於一些熱衷追逐最新潮事物的人。投資者可能會驚訝地發現，奈飛剛剛交出了又一個增長兩位數的季度。市值僅為 3240 億美元，或許為奈飛加入萬億美元俱樂部還為時過早，然而，股價在過去一年中上漲了超過 100%，過去十年上漲了 1380%，證據表明其上升勢頭將繼續。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ2MzEvYS1ob2xvZ3JhcGhpYy1kaXNwbGF5LW9mLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy1hYm92ZS1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794631%2Fa-holographic-display-of-stock-charts-above-a-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Bullish results</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>看漲的結果</h2>
</div><p>Netflix just reported its third-quarter results and sailed past expectations on every important metric. Revenue of $9.83 billion climbed 15% year over year, generating robust profit growth as earnings per share (EPS) of $5.40 soared 45%. Revenue was fueled by strong paid subscriber growth that jumped by more than 5 million, an increase of 14%. The bottom line was driven higher by an expanding operating margin that increased by an incredible 720 basis points to 29.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飛剛剛公佈了其第三季度業績，各項重要指標均超出預期。98.3 億美元的營收同比增長 15%，盈利增長強勁，每股收益（EPS）達 5.40 美元，同比飆升 45%。營收得益於強勁的付費訂閲增長，增加了 500 多萬，增長了 14%。底線受益於擴大的營運利潤率，增長了驚人的 720 個基點，達到 29.6%。</p>
</div><p>For context, analysts' consensus estimates were calling for revenue of $9.77 billion and EPS of $5.12, accompanied by subscriber additions of 4.5 million, so Netflix beat across the board.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，分析師的共識預期是營收為 97.7 億美元，每股收益為 5.12 美元，伴隨着 450 萬的新增訂户，因此奈飛在各方面都超出預期。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps more importantly, management expects its growth streak to continue. Netflix is guiding for fourth-quarter revenue of $10.1 billion, up nearly 15%, while EPS of $4.23 would more than double.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或許更重要的是，管理層預計其增長勢頭將繼續。奈飛預計第四季度營收將達到 101 億美元，增長近 15%，而每股收益將超過 4.23 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Incremental levers for growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增長的增量槓桿</h2>
</div><p>On the conference call to discuss the results, Netflix laid out plans to continue its impressive growth, highlighting three particularly significant opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在討論業績的電話會議上，奈飛闡明瞭繼續實現強勁增長的計劃，重點突出了三個特別重要的機會。</p>
</div><p>Netflix has been dabbling in video games for some time now, but the company is beginning to see greater interest from its audience for the games based on the company's growing library of intellectual property. Management is particularly excited about the title based on <em>Squid Game</em>, the company's most-watched series.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飛一直在涉足視頻遊戲領域，但公司開始看到觀眾對基於公司不斷增長的知識產權庫的遊戲表現出更大興趣。管理層特別看好基於《<strong>烏賊遊戲</strong>》的遊戲。</p>
</div><p>Management is also leaning into its recent successes with live events. Netflix is live-streaming a boxing match between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul on Nov. 15. The company also has exclusive rights to two NFL games on Christmas Day: The Super Bowl LVII-winning Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Houston Texans. Finally, Netflix is the new home of WWE Raw, the highly rated wrestling entertainment show, with weekly episodes beginning in January 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理層還在加大對最近成功的現場活動的投入。奈飛正在直播 11 月 15 日邁克·泰森和傑克·保羅之間的拳擊比賽。該公司還擁有兩場聖誕節 NFL 比賽的獨家轉播權：超級碗 LVII 冠軍堪薩斯城酋長隊對匹茲堡鋼人隊，以及巴爾的摩烏鴉隊對休斯頓德州人隊。最後，奈飛是 WWE Raw 的新家，這是一檔收視率極高的摔跤娛樂節目，每週的節目將於 2025 年 1 月開始。</p>
</div><p>However, the company's biggest opportunity is its growing digital advertising business. Netflix noted during the call that its audience and ad inventory are currently growing faster than the company's ability to capitalize on that growth. Members signing up for the lowest-priced ad tier increased 35% quarter over quarter and accounted for 50% of new members in the countries where Netflix shows advertising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，公司最大的機會在於其不斷增長的數字廣告業務。奈飛在電話會議中指出，其受眾和廣告庫目前增長速度快於公司利用這一增長的能力。在展示廣告的國家，選擇最低價格廣告套餐的會員季度環比增長 35%，佔新增會員的 50%。</p>
</div><p>The company has a couple of important initiatives that are designed to accelerate its ads business. First, Netflix is launching its first-party ad server, beginning in Canada this quarter, then in the rest of its advertising markets in 2025. The company is also leaning into its partnership with <strong>The Trade Desk</strong> to expand its advertising reach. Netflix noted that ad-tier members are similar to other subscribers in terms of hours watched and preferred titles, which shows viewing patterns are consistent. Management expects ad revenue to double (off a small base) in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司有一些旨在加速其廣告業務的重要舉措。首先，奈飛將在本季度開始在加拿大推出其第一方廣告服務器，然後在 2025 年在其餘廣告市場推出。公司還在加大與 <strong>The Trade Desk</strong> 的合作力度，以擴大其廣告覆蓋範圍。奈飛指出，選擇廣告套餐的會員在觀看時間和喜愛的節目方面與其他訂户類似，顯示觀看模式是一致的。管理層預計廣告收入將在 2025 年翻番（基數較小）。</p>
</div><p>Each of these initiatives represents an incremental growth driver, which helps illustrate how Netflix plans to continue its robust growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些舉措每一項都代表着一個增量增長驅動因素，有助於説明奈飛計劃如何繼續實現強勁增長。</p>
</div><h2>The path to $1 trillion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>達到 1 萬億美元的路徑</h2>
</div><p>Netflix currently has a market cap of $323 billion, which means it will take stock price gains of roughly 207% to drive its value to $1 trillion, but there's a clear path for growth over the coming decade. According to Wall Street, Netflix is expected to generate revenue of $38.74 billion in 2024, giving it a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 8. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Netflix would have to grow its revenue to roughly $357 billion annually to support a $1 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飛目前的市值為 3230 億美元，這意味着其股價需要上漲約 207% 才能將其價值推至 1 萬億美元，但在未來十年內有明確的增長路徑。根據華爾街的預測，預計奈飛將在 2024 年實現 387.4 億美元的營收，使其前瞻性市銷率（P/S）約為 8。假設其市銷率保持不變，奈飛需要將其營收增長到每年約 3570 億美元，以支撐 1 萬億美元的市值。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street is currently forecasting revenue growth for Netflix of about 26% annually over the next five years. If the company achieves that benchmark, it <em>could</em> achieve a $1 trillion market cap as soon as 2035. It's worth noting that Netflix has grown its annual revenue by 562% over the past decade, and its net income has soared 1,450%, so Wall Street's outlook could well be conservative. Furthermore, as this quarter illustrates, Netflix has a habit of outpacing Wall Street's expectations, which could also shave years off this timeline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街目前預測奈飛未來五年的營收增長約為 26%。如果公司實現這一標準，它 <strong>可能</strong> 在 2035 年實現 1 萬億美元的市值。值得注意的是，奈飛過去十年的年營收增長率為 562%，淨收入飆升了 1450%，因此華爾街的展望可能過於保守。此外，正如本季度所示，奈飛有超越華爾街預期的習慣，這也可能縮短這一時間表。</p>
</div><p>Finally, Netflix is currently selling for roughly 39 times earnings, which might seem expensive at first glance, but consider this: Wall Street expects Netflix to generate EPS of $23.11 in 2025, which would represent a multiple of 30 -- the same as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>. Considering Netflix's strong track record of growth and its significant opportunity, I'd say that's a fair price to pay for a company expected to generate consistent double-digit growth over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，奈飛目前的市盈率約為 39 倍，乍一看可能顯得昂貴，但請考慮：華爾街預計奈飛在 2025 年將實現每股收益 23.11 美元，這將代表一個 30 倍的市盈率，與 <strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 相同。考慮到奈飛強勁的增長記錄和巨大的機會，我認為這是為一家預計在未來五年內實現持續兩位數增長的公司支付的合理價格。</p>
</div>

Meet the Unstoppable Stock That Could Join Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in the $1 Trillion Club by 2035

- Netflix 第三季度營收 98.3 億美元，同比增長 15%，超出預期。  
- 預計第四季度營收將達 101 億美元，增長近 15%。  
- Netflix 正在擴展廣告業務，預計 2025 年廣告收入將翻倍。

瞭解這隻勢不可擋的股票，它可能在 2035 年加入蘋果、英偉達、微軟、Alphabet、亞馬遜、Meta 和台積電的 1 萬億美元俱樂部