<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.09%) 上週舉辦了一場名為&#34;我們，機器人&#34;的活動，展示了其原型自動駕駛車輛和人形機器人。投資者感到失望。截至本文撰寫時，特斯拉股價在過去五個交易日下跌了 10%，華爾街對&#34;Cybercab&#34;和特斯拉 Optimus 機器人對公司利潤的實質性影響日益持懷疑。</p>
<p>和往常一樣，這次活動伴隨着很多喧囂、戲劇性和特斯拉首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克的承諾。公司會兑現他所説的嗎？你應該買入股票的低點嗎？現在是時候分析這些新產品的潛力，以及它們是否能像馬斯克所預言的那樣為特斯拉的市值增加數萬億美元。</p>
<h2>更多馬斯克的承諾</h2>
<p>特斯拉已經致力於自動駕駛車輛技術超過十年。馬斯克多次承諾公司即將在幾年內為特斯拉車輛帶來全面自動駕駛軟件。最著名的一次是在 2019 年，他表示到 2020 年底將有 100 萬輛&#34;機器人出租車&#34;上路。這並沒有發生。</p>
<p>上週的活動有着類似的感覺。馬斯克乘坐特斯拉稱之為 Cybercab 的出租車出席活動，這是一輛外觀 futurist 的出租車，車門垂直開啓。他們還展示了同款風格的自動駕駛貨車原型。據公司稱，Cybercab 將於 2026 年投入生產，但對貨車的時間表尚不明確。特斯拉希望製造這些車輛和相關的自動駕駛軟件，以進攻 <strong>Uber</strong> 的業務，允許車主和/或特斯拉自身利用這一車隊運營無人駕駛的拼車網絡。如果成功，這有潛力大幅降低出租車費用。</p>
<p>除了機器人車輛，特斯拉還大力強調其對特斯拉 Optimus 機器人的研究，這是一個看起來像人類的機器人。特斯拉聲稱該機器人將能夠完成您提出的任何任務。按照馬斯克的典型風格，他對它能為特斯拉帶來多少價值持樂觀態度，預計僅從 Optimus 產品線就能為其市值增加高達 25 萬億美元。目前尚不清楚他是基於何種分析得出這一結論。</p>
<h2>實用性有待觀察</h2>
<p>在涉及機器人技術時，特斯拉提出了很多數字：數百萬輛機器人出租車；數萬億美元的市值。公司也發表了很多言論。然而，目前並沒有太多實際產品以實際銷售給客户。</p>
<p>如果我是特斯拉的投資者，我會擔心這只是又一個宣佈產品最終被推遲的活動。特斯拉似乎把未來押注在人工智能（AI）、機器人技術和自動駕駛車輛上。但到目前為止，它只是建造了原型。其當前的全自動駕駛軟件有點名不副實，因為仍需要人類操作車輛。與擁有在美國各城市運營實際機器人出租車許可的 Waymo 不同，特斯拉的自動駕駛網絡目前僅僅是一個構想。</p>
<p>對於 Optimus 機器人原型也應該有所擔憂。活動後的幾天裏，有消息稱機器人在與客人互動時是由人類遠程控制的。這與馬斯克承諾的自主機器人並不接近；這也在誤導投資者和公司最大的客户。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b3459bcb9ccecfafd1d4c58109f3974.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b3459bcb9ccecfafd1d4c58109f3974.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 營業收入（TTM）數據來源：YCharts</p>
<h2>因為機器人出租車和人形機器人而購買特斯拉股票嗎？</h2>
<p>特斯拉股票在長期內表現出色。自 2021 年底創下歷史最高點以來已下跌了 47%。鑑於圍繞這些人工智能和機器人產品的炒作，更不用説龐大的電動汽車（EV）和電池存儲部門，您可能認為在特斯拉股票最近下跌後買入是明智的。</p>
<p>我認為這是基於尚未兑現的承諾的錯誤想法。根據活動中關於機器人出租車和 Optimus 機器人的信息，這些產品在未來至少五年內，甚至永遠都不太可能對特斯拉的業務產生重大影響。這使投資者只能依靠當前的電動汽車和電池存儲業務。</p>
<p>對於這些領域也不應抱有太多樂觀態度。由於電動汽車供應大幅增加和利潤率受擠壓，特斯拉的營業收入和自由現金流在最近幾個季度急劇下降。在過去 12 個月中，它僅產生了 17 億美元的自由現金流。與其 6860 億美元的市值相比，這是一個微不足道的數字。</p>
<p>在&#34;我們，機器人&#34;活動之前，特斯拉股票看起來被高估了。由於至少幾年內沒有新產品推出，技術尚未得到驗證，即使在活動之後，它仍然被高估。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉最近舉辦的 “我們，機器人” 活動令投資者感到失望，導致股價在五天內下跌了 10%。首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克展示了自動駕駛汽車和 Optimus Bot 原型，但人們對它們對公司財務狀況的影響持懷疑態度。儘管有雄心勃勃的預測，但人們仍然擔憂這些產品的實用性和時間表，許多仍處於原型階段。分析師指出，考慮到最近營業收入和自由現金流的下降，目前的電動汽車和電池儲存業務可能無法維持樂觀情緒</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -0.09%) hosted an event called &#34;We, Robot&#34; last week to display its prototype-autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots. Investors were disappointed. Tesla shares are now down 10% in the last five trading days (as of this writing) as Wall Street gets increasingly skeptical on how material the &#34;Cybercab&#34; and Tesla Optimus Bots will be to the company's bottom line anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.09%) 上週舉辦了一場名為&#34;我們，機器人&#34;的活動，展示了其原型自動駕駛車輛和人形機器人。投資者感到失望。截至本文撰寫時，特斯拉股價在過去五個交易日下跌了 10%，華爾街對&#34;Cybercab&#34;和特斯拉 Optimus 機器人對公司利潤的實質性影響日益持懷疑。</p>
</div><p>As usual, this event came with a lot of fanfare, drama, and promises from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Will the company make good on what he said? And should you buy the dip on the stock? Time to analyze the potential of these new products and whether they can add trillions of dollars to Tesla's market cap as Musk has prophesized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>和往常一樣，這次活動伴隨着很多喧囂、戲劇性和特斯拉首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克的承諾。公司會兑現他所説的嗎？你應該買入股票的低點嗎？現在是時候分析這些新產品的潛力，以及它們是否能像馬斯克所預言的那樣為特斯拉的市值增加數萬億美元。</p>
</div><h2>More Musk promises</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更多馬斯克的承諾</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has been working on self-driving vehicle technology for more than a decade. Musk has promised numerous times that the company was on the verge of bringing full self-driving software to Tesla vehicles, usually within a few years. Most famously -- or perhaps infamously -- he said in 2019 that there would be 1 million &#34;robotaxis&#34; on the road by the end of 2020. This didn't happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉已經致力於自動駕駛車輛技術超過十年。馬斯克多次承諾公司即將在幾年內為特斯拉車輛帶來全面自動駕駛軟件。最著名的一次是在 2019 年，他表示到 2020 年底將有 100 萬輛&#34;機器人出租車&#34;上路。這並沒有發生。</p>
</div><p>Last week had a similar feel. Musk came to the event in what Tesla is calling a Cybercab, a futuristic-looking taxi with doors that open vertically. They also debuted a prototype for a self-driving van in the same style. According to the company, the Cybercab will go into production in 2026, but it gave no timeline for the van. Tesla wants to build these vehicles and the associated self-driving software to attack <strong>Uber</strong>'s business, allowing owners and/or Tesla itself to use this fleet of vehicles to operate a ride-sharing network with zero human drivers. If successful, it has the potential to radically lower the cost of taxi rides.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週的活動有着類似的感覺。馬斯克乘坐特斯拉稱之為 Cybercab 的出租車出席活動，這是一輛外觀 futurist 的出租車，車門垂直開啓。他們還展示了同款風格的自動駕駛貨車原型。據公司稱，Cybercab 將於 2026 年投入生產，但對貨車的時間表尚不明確。特斯拉希望製造這些車輛和相關的自動駕駛軟件，以進攻 <strong>Uber</strong> 的業務，允許車主和/或特斯拉自身利用這一車隊運營無人駕駛的拼車網絡。如果成功，這有潛力大幅降低出租車費用。</p>
</div><p>On top of the robotic vehicles, Tesla made a big push to highlight its research into the Tesla Optimus Bot, which is a robot that looks like a human. Tesla claims the robot will be able to do any task you ask it to. In typical Musk fashion, he was optimistic about how much value it could bring to Tesla, projecting upwards of $25 trillion in value added to its market cap just from the Optimus product line. It is unclear what analysis led him to come to this conclusion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了機器人車輛，特斯拉還大力強調其對特斯拉 Optimus 機器人的研究，這是一個看起來像人類的機器人。特斯拉聲稱該機器人將能夠完成您提出的任何任務。按照馬斯克的典型風格，他對它能為特斯拉帶來多少價值持樂觀態度，預計僅從 Optimus 產品線就能為其市值增加高達 25 萬億美元。目前尚不清楚他是基於何種分析得出這一結論。</p>
</div><h2>Practicality remains to be seen</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>實用性有待觀察</h2>
</div><p>There are a lot of numbers thrown around by Tesla when it comes to robotics: Millions of robotaxis; trillions of dollars in market value. There is also a lot of bark coming from the company. However, there is not much bite in the form of real products getting sold to customers today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在涉及機器人技術時，特斯拉提出了很多數字：數百萬輛機器人出租車；數萬億美元的市值。公司也發表了很多言論。然而，目前並沒有太多實際產品以實際銷售給客户。</p>
</div><p>If I was a Tesla investor, I would be worried that this is just another event with announcements for products that eventually get delayed. Tesla seems to be betting its future on artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and autonomous vehicles. But so far it's only built prototypes. Its current full self-driving software is a bit of a misnomer in that it still needs humans operating the vehicle. Unlike Waymo, which has licenses to operate a fleet of actual robotaxis in cities across the United States, Tesla's self-driving network is nothing more than an idea right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我是特斯拉的投資者，我會擔心這只是又一個宣佈產品最終被推遲的活動。特斯拉似乎把未來押注在人工智能（AI）、機器人技術和自動駕駛車輛上。但到目前為止，它只是建造了原型。其當前的全自動駕駛軟件有點名不副實，因為仍需要人類操作車輛。與擁有在美國各城市運營實際機器人出租車許可的 Waymo 不同，特斯拉的自動駕駛網絡目前僅僅是一個構想。</p>
</div><p>There should also be concerns about the Optimus Bot prototype. It has come out in the days following the event that the bots were being remote-controlled by humans when interacting with guests. This is not exactly close to the autonomous robot that Musk has promised; it's also misleading investors and the company's biggest customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於 Optimus 機器人原型也應該有所擔憂。活動後的幾天裏，有消息稱機器人在與客人互動時是由人類遠程控制的。這與馬斯克承諾的自主機器人並不接近；這也在誤導投資者和公司最大的客户。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b3459bcb9ccecfafd1d4c58109f3974.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b3459bcb9ccecfafd1d4c58109f3974.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA Operating Income (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 營業收入（TTM）數據來源：YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Tesla because of Robotaxis and humanoid bots?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>因為機器人出租車和人形機器人而購買特斯拉股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla stock has done phenomenal over the long term. It is also down 47% from all-time highs set in late 2021. Given all the hype around these AI and robotics products -- not to mention the huge electric vehicle (EV) and battery-storage divisions -- you might think it is smart to buy the dip on Tesla stock after its recent fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉股票在長期內表現出色。自 2021 年底創下歷史最高點以來已下跌了 47%。鑑於圍繞這些人工智能和機器人產品的炒作，更不用説龐大的電動汽車（EV）和電池存儲部門，您可能認為在特斯拉股票最近下跌後買入是明智的。</p>
</div><p>I think this is misguided thinking based on promises yet to be fulfilled. Given the information about the robotaxis and Optimus Bot at the event, it is highly likely that these products will not be meaningful to Tesla's business for at least the next five years, if ever. This leaves investors with the current EV and battery-storage business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為這是基於尚未兑現的承諾的錯誤想法。根據活動中關於機器人出租車和 Optimus 機器人的信息，這些產品在未來至少五年內，甚至永遠都不太可能對特斯拉的業務產生重大影響。這使投資者只能依靠當前的電動汽車和電池存儲業務。</p>
</div><p>There shouldn't be much optimism around these segments, either. Due to huge supply increases for EVs and profit-margin compression, Tesla's operating income and free cash flow have plummeted in recent quarters. Over the last 12 months, it has generated just $1.7 billion in free cash flow. That is a measly figure compared to its market cap of $686 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於這些領域也不應抱有太多樂觀態度。由於電動汽車供應大幅增加和利潤率受擠壓，特斯拉的營業收入和自由現金流在最近幾個季度急劇下降。在過去 12 個月中，它僅產生了 17 億美元的自由現金流。與其 6860 億美元的市值相比，這是一個微不足道的數字。</p>
</div><p>Tesla stock looked overvalued before this &#34;We, Robot&#34; event. With no new products coming until at least a few years and unproven technology, it is still overvalued after the event as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在&#34;我們，機器人&#34;活動之前，特斯拉股票看起來被高估了。由於至少幾年內沒有新產品推出，技術尚未得到驗證，即使在活動之後，它仍然被高估。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Falls After Lackluster Robotaxi Event: Time to Buy the Dip?

- 特斯拉在"We, Robot"活動中展示了原型自動駕駛車輛和人形機器人。  
- 投資者對未來產品的實際影響表示懷疑，特斯拉股價下跌 10%。  
- 目前，特斯拉的自駕技術仍處於原型階段，未來五年內可能不會對業務產生重大影響。

特斯拉股票在平淡無奇的自動駕駛出租車活動後下跌：現在是逢低買入的好時機嗎？