<p><strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST 2.08%) 股票最近幾個月一直在上漲，從 8 月份的每股 20 美元上漲到本文撰寫時的每股 55 美元以上。然而，儘管最近有所上漲，但仍比其歷史最高價 401 美元每股低 86%。</p>
<p>消費信貸公司在過去幾年一直面臨較高利率環境的挑戰，但情況似乎正在好轉。上個月，美聯儲將其基準利率下調 50 個基點，看起來還會有更多的降息。Upstart 處於利率下降的有利位置，但今天買入該股票是否明智？</p>
<h2>Upstart 經歷了艱難的幾年</h2>
<p>Upstart 股票在 2020 年 12 月首次公開募股後立即獲得成功。這家消費信貸公司受益於當時的經濟環境，低利率、強勁的財政刺激和強勁的消費者。該公司立即盈利，並在管理層樂觀情緒的推動下啓動了規模為 4 億美元的股票回購計劃。</p>
<p>然而，增長並不可持續，因為 2022 年和 2023 年不斷上升的利率拖累了業務。與銀行不同，Upstart 通常不會持有自己放出的貸款。相反，它與銀行、另類資產管理公司和其他機構投資者合作，購買其貸款並收取利息。例如，今年 84% 的 Upstart 貸款由機構投資者或放貸合作伙伴持有。</p>
<p>在 2022 年，由於未來利率走勢未知，該公司難以找到願意購買其貸款的買家。對於 Upstart 基於人工智能的貸款的投資者需求再次增加。去年五月，投資經理 Castlelake 同意購買高達 40 億美元的貸款，這表明投資者對其貸款的興趣再次增加。</p>
<p>該公司繼續為其貸款獲得放貸合作伙伴，包括眾多信用合作社和小銀行。10 月 10 日，Upstart 宣佈另類資產管理公司 <strong>Blue Owl Capital</strong> 承諾在未來 18 個月內購買高達 20 億美元的 Upstart 消費者貸款。</p>
<h2>Upstart 的放貸模式表現良好</h2>
<p>在過去幾年裏，Upstart 已解決了數十億美元貸款融資的一半問題。這是投資者希望參與的一個很好的跡象。這也驗證了其旨在挑戰自 1989 年創立以來一直是消費信貸標準的 <strong>Fair Isaac</strong> 的 FICO 評分系統的人工智能放貸模式的有效性。</p>
<p>Upstart 的模型在信用範圍內評估風險做得很好。正如下圖所示，其模型找到信用評分低但可靠的借款人，同時識別出信用評分高但違約風險高於平均水平的借款人。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQxNDMvdXBzdC1wZXJmb3JtYW5jZS0xMC0xNS0yNC5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQxNDMvdXBzdC1wZXJmb3JtYW5jZS0xMC0xNS0yNC5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Upstart Holdings。</p>
<h2>Upstart 可能迎來巨大的再融資機會</h2>
<p>在獲得資金的情況下，Upstart 現在需要消費者對其貸款的需求增加。截至 2024 年上半年，Upstart 的總貸款交易量為 22 億美元，略高於去年，但遠低於 2021 年的峯值，當時交易量超過 45 億美元。</p>
<p>Upstart 和其他消費信貸公司可能受益於由於利率下降而帶來的巨大順風。其中一部分原因是消費者信用卡餘額不斷增加。根據紐約聯邦儲備銀行的數據，消費者信用卡餘額為 1.14 萬億美元。這些不斷增加的餘額出現在平均信用卡利率為 22.75% 的情況下，接近歷史最高水平。</p>
<p>根據芝加哥商品交易所聯邦基金利率監視工具，市場參與者預計到明年 10 月，聯邦基金利率將降至 3.25% 至 3.5%，比今天低 1.5%。如果利率大幅下降，許多債務持有者可能會利用這一機會進行再融資和債務整合，以鎖定更低的利率。</p>
<h2>買入嗎？</h2>
<p>Upstart 是一家受經濟和市場條件影響較大的週期性公司。這使得它比藍籌股更具風險，不太適合尋求用更保守的方法保護資本的投資者。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/55d973f8b7eb983f501d46a69a416862.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/55d973f8b7eb983f501d46a69a416862.png"/></p>
<p>UPST PS 比數據來源：YCharts</p>
<p>自 8 月份以來上漲 100% 後，該股票的價格約為銷售額的 9.25 倍，明年預測銷售額的 6.95 倍，這兩者都處於自美聯儲自 2022 年 3 月開始提高基準利率以來的高位，但仍遠低於 2021 年的峯值。</p>
<p>更高的估值反映了對 Upstart 業務在未來一兩年內會反彈的樂觀情緒，但如果這些預期未能實現，也會增加該股的風險。儘管如此，Upstart 已獲得資金，並且處於良好位置，可以從利率下降中受益，如果您相信消費者貸款需求會出現反彈，那麼它是一個不錯的買入選擇。</p>

UPST

<p>最近，Upstart（UPST）股票價格有所反彈，但仍比歷史最高價低 86%。該公司與銀行合作銷售基於人工智能的貸款，最近獲得了重要的資金承諾，重新引起投資者的興趣。隨着美聯儲降息，Upstart 可能受益於消費者對貸款的增加需求。然而，由於其週期性特點和當前估值較高，反映了對業務潛在反彈的樂觀情緒，該股被認為存在較高風險。投資者在決定購買前應權衡這些因素</p>

<p><strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST 2.08%) stock has rallied in recent months, going from as low as $20 per share in August to over $55 per share at the time of this writing. Despite its recent rally, however, it remains 86% below its all-time high price of $401 per share in October 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST 2.08%) 股票最近幾個月一直在上漲，從 8 月份的每股 20 美元上漲到本文撰寫時的每股 55 美元以上。然而，儘管最近有所上漲，但仍比其歷史最高價 401 美元每股低 86%。</p>
</div><p>Consumer lenders have struggled with the higher interest rate environment over the past several years, but things look like they could be turning a corner. Last month, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, and more cuts appear to be coming. Upstart is well positioned to capitalize on lower rates, but is the stock a buy today?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費信貸公司在過去幾年一直面臨較高利率環境的挑戰，但情況似乎正在好轉。上個月，美聯儲將其基準利率下調 50 個基點，看起來還會有更多的降息。Upstart 處於利率下降的有利位置，但今天買入該股票是否明智？</p>
</div><h2>Upstart is coming off a tough couple of years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Upstart 經歷了艱難的幾年</h2>
</div><p>Upstart stock was an immediate winner after its December 2020 initial public offering. The consumer lender benefited from the economic environment at the time, which saw low interest rates, strong fiscal stimulus, and strong consumers. The company was profitable immediately and launched a massive $400 million share repurchase program amid management's optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 股票在 2020 年 12 月首次公開募股後立即獲得成功。這家消費信貸公司受益於當時的經濟環境，低利率、強勁的財政刺激和強勁的消費者。該公司立即盈利，並在管理層樂觀情緒的推動下啓動了規模為 4 億美元的股票回購計劃。</p>
</div><p>However, the growth wasn't sustainable, as rising interest rates throughout 2022 and 2023 dragged down the business. Unlike banks, Upstart generally doesn't hold on to the loans that it makes. Instead, it partners with banks, alternative asset managers, and other institutional investors that purchase its loans and collect interest payments. For example, this year 84% of Upstart's loans are held by institutional investors or lending partners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，增長並不可持續，因為 2022 年和 2023 年不斷上升的利率拖累了業務。與銀行不同，Upstart 通常不會持有自己放出的貸款。相反，它與銀行、另類資產管理公司和其他機構投資者合作，購買其貸款並收取利息。例如，今年 84% 的 Upstart 貸款由機構投資者或放貸合作伙伴持有。</p>
</div><p>Throughout 2022, the company struggled to find willing buyers of its loans as the future path of interest rates was unknown. Investor demand for Upstart's AI-powered loans has been picking up once again. In May of last year, the investment manager Castlelake agreed to purchase up to $4 billion of its loans -- a sign that investor appetite for its loans was picking up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年，由於未來利率走勢未知，該公司難以找到願意購買其貸款的買家。對於 Upstart 基於人工智能的貸款的投資者需求再次增加。去年五月，投資經理 Castlelake 同意購買高達 40 億美元的貸款，這表明投資者對其貸款的興趣再次增加。</p>
</div><p>The company has continued to secure lending partners for its loans, including numerous credit unions and small banks. On Oct. 10, Upstart announced that the alternative asset manager <strong>Blue Owl Capital</strong> committed to purchasing up to $2 billion of Upstart's consumer loans over the next 18 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司繼續為其貸款獲得放貸合作伙伴，包括眾多信用合作社和小銀行。10 月 10 日，Upstart 宣佈另類資產管理公司 <strong>Blue Owl Capital</strong> 承諾在未來 18 個月內購買高達 20 億美元的 Upstart 消費者貸款。</p>
</div><h2>Upstart's lending model has held up well</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Upstart 的放貸模式表現良好</h2>
</div><p>Upstart has solved half of its problems in the last couple of years with financing secured for billions of dollars in loans. This is an excellent sign that investors want to get in. It also validates its AI-powered lending model, which aims to take on <strong>Fair Isaac</strong>'s FICO scoring system, which has been the standard in consumer credit since it was created in 1989.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾年裏，Upstart 已解決了數十億美元貸款融資的一半問題。這是投資者希望參與的一個很好的跡象。這也驗證了其旨在挑戰自 1989 年創立以來一直是消費信貸標準的 <strong>Fair Isaac</strong> 的 FICO 評分系統的人工智能放貸模式的有效性。</p>
</div><p>Upstart's models have done a solid job evaluating risk across the credit spectrum. As the chart below shows, its models find dependable borrowers with low credit scores while identifying those with high credit scores but a higher-than-average chance of defaulting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 的模型在信用範圍內評估風險做得很好。正如下圖所示，其模型找到信用評分低但可靠的借款人，同時識別出信用評分高但違約風險高於平均水平的借款人。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQxNDMvdXBzdC1wZXJmb3JtYW5jZS0xMC0xNS0yNC5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794143%2Fupst-performance-10-15-24.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Upstart Holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Upstart Holdings。</p>
</div><h2>A huge refinance opportunity could await Upstart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Upstart 可能迎來巨大的再融資機會</h2>
</div><p>With funding secured, Upstart now needs consumer demand for its loans to pick up. Through the first half of 2024, Upstart's total loan transaction volume was $2.2 billion, slightly above last year but well below its peak in 2021, where transaction volume was over $4.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在獲得資金的情況下，Upstart 現在需要消費者對其貸款的需求增加。截至 2024 年上半年，Upstart 的總貸款交易量為 22 億美元，略高於去年，但遠低於 2021 年的峯值，當時交易量超過 45 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Upstart and other consumer lenders could benefit from a massive tailwind due to falling interest rates. Part of that has to do with ballooning consumer credit card balances. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumer credit card balances are $1.14 trillion. These rising balances come when average credit card interest rates are 22.75%, near the highest they've ever been.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 和其他消費信貸公司可能受益於由於利率下降而帶來的巨大順風。其中一部分原因是消費者信用卡餘額不斷增加。根據紐約聯邦儲備銀行的數據，消費者信用卡餘額為 1.14 萬億美元。這些不斷增加的餘額出現在平均信用卡利率為 22.75% 的情況下，接近歷史最高水平。</p>
</div><p>According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants expect the federal funds rate to be around 3.25% to 3.5% by October of next year, or 1.5% below where they are today. If interest rates do decline meaningfully, many debt holders could use this as an opportunity to refinance and consolidate their debts to lock in lower interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據芝加哥商品交易所聯邦基金利率監視工具，市場參與者預計到明年 10 月，聯邦基金利率將降至 3.25% 至 3.5%，比今天低 1.5%。如果利率大幅下降，許多債務持有者可能會利用這一機會進行再融資和債務整合，以鎖定更低的利率。</p>
</div><h2>Is it a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>買入嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Upstart is a cyclical company vulnerable to economic and market conditions. This makes it riskier than blue chip stocks and not ideal for investors looking to protect their capital with a more conservative approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 是一家受經濟和市場條件影響較大的週期性公司。這使得它比藍籌股更具風險，不太適合尋求用更保守的方法保護資本的投資者。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/55d973f8b7eb983f501d46a69a416862.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/55d973f8b7eb983f501d46a69a416862.png"/></p>
<p>UPST PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UPST PS 比數據來源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>After its 100% run-up since August, the stock is priced around 9.25 times sales and 6.95 times next year's forecast sales, both on the higher end since the Fed began raising its benchmark interest rate in March 2022 but still well below its peak valuation from 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 8 月份以來上漲 100% 後，該股票的價格約為銷售額的 9.25 倍，明年預測銷售額的 6.95 倍，這兩者都處於自美聯儲自 2022 年 3 月開始提高基準利率以來的高位，但仍遠低於 2021 年的峯值。</p>
</div><p>The higher valuation reflects optimism that Upstart's business will rebound over the next year or two but also opens up the stock to more risk if those expectations fail to materialize. That said, Upstart has secured funding and is well positioned to benefit from falling interest rates, making it a good buy if you believe a rebound in consumer loan demand is on the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的估值反映了對 Upstart 業務在未來一兩年內會反彈的樂觀情緒，但如果這些預期未能實現，也會增加該股的風險。儘管如此，Upstart 已獲得資金，並且處於良好位置，可以從利率下降中受益，如果您相信消費者貸款需求會出現反彈，那麼它是一個不錯的買入選擇。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Upstart While It's Below $75?

- Upstart 股票近期從 $20 漲至 $55，但仍低於歷史高點 $401。  
- 隨着美聯儲降息，Upstart 有望受益於低利率環境。  
- 投資者對其 AI 驅動貸款的需求回升，未來可能迎來反彈。

在 Upstart 股價低於 75 美元時，你是否應該購買？