<p>在過去的一個世紀裏，股票是表現最好的資產類別。儘管國債、房地產和各種大宗商品（包括黃金、白銀和石油）都有正收益，但沒有任何資產能與股票帶來的年化回報相提並論。</p>
<p>由於人工智能（AI）革命、股票分拆狂熱和超預期的企業盈利，華爾街的牛市最近慶祝了兩週年。成熟的股票驅動的道瓊斯工業平均指數（^DJI 0.09%）、基準的標普 500 指數（^GSPC 0.40%）和增長推動的納斯達克綜合指數（^IXIC 0.63%）在 2024 年都創下了多次創紀錄的收盤高點。</p>
<p>但歷史也告訴我們，股票不會一直直線上漲。儘管沒有任何指標或指示器能夠百分之百準確地預測主要股指的短期走勢，但這並不能阻止投資者尋找與道瓊斯、標普 500 和/或納斯達克綜合指數的漲跌強相關的事件和預測工具。</p>
<p>目前，一個幾乎完美的預測工具向華爾街發出了一個不容忽視的警告。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTEvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWNyYXNoLXBsdW5nZS1maW5hbmNpYWwtbmV3c3BhcGVyLXJlY2Vzc2lvbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTEvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWNyYXNoLXBsdW5nZS1maW5hbmNpYWwtbmV3c3BhcGVyLXJlY2Vzc2lvbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>自這一概率工具出現錯誤已經將近六十年</h2>
<p>一年多來，我已經研究了許多相關事件和預測指標，直到目前為止，它們都錯誤地預測了道瓊斯、標普 500 和納斯達克綜合指數的下跌。這包括美國 M2 貨幣供應自大蕭條以來首次顯著下降，美國會議委員會領先經濟指數（LEI）大幅下降，以及連續牛市中標普 500 Shiller 市盈率之一的最高水平，經過 153 年的回溯測試。</p>
<p>然而，一個幾乎完美的預測工具預示着美國經濟和隨後的華爾街三大股指將面臨麻煩，那就是紐約聯邦儲備銀行的衰退概率指標。</p>
<p>紐約聯儲的衰退工具檢查了 10 年期國債和三個月期國庫券之間的利差（收益率差異），以計算美國在未來 12 個月內陷入衰退的可能性有多大。</p>
<p>通常，國債收益率曲線向上傾斜。這意味着未來 10 年或 30 年到期的債券將提供比一年或更短期限的國庫券更高的收益率。你的資金綁定的時間越長，收益率就應該越高。</p>
<p>但偶爾，收益率曲線會倒掛，即短期國庫券的收益率高於長期債券。倒掛通常是投資者對美國經濟健康持懷疑態度的跡象。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/32ce1706f8c3b4782bedca25b124cb03.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/32ce1706f8c3b4782bedca25b124cb03.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的美國衰退概率數據。灰色區域表示美國衰退。</p>
<p>10 年期和三個月期國庫券收益率之間的利差已經顛倒了相當長的時間。根據紐約聯儲的衰退預測工具，到 2025 年 9 月，美國陷入衰退的概率為 57.05%。</p>
<p>請記住，這一預測工具以前曾出錯。1966 年 10 月，美國在 12 個月內陷入衰退的概率超過 40%，但從未實現。儘管並非每次收益率曲線倒掛都會導致衰退，但二戰後的每次美國衰退都是在收益率曲線倒掛之前。將收益率曲線倒掛視為經濟衰退的必要因素。</p>
<p>儘管紐約聯邦儲備銀行的衰退概率指標並非完美，但在過去 58 年裏它已經 100% 準確。</p>
<p>你可能想知道一個針對美國經濟的預測工具與道瓊斯工業平均指數、標普 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數有什麼關係。2023 年發佈的一項來自美國銀行全球研究的研究發現，自 1929 年以來，大約三分之二的標普 500 指數的峯值到谷底下降發生在美國宣佈衰退之後，而不是之前。</p>
<p>儘管股市並不完全反映美國經濟，但預計衰退將拖累企業盈利。最終，這對華爾街及其主要股指來説將是個壞消息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTEvYnVsbC1tYXJrZXQtcmlzaW5nLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy1maW5hbmNpYWwtbmV3c3BhcGVyLXF1b3Rlcy1pbnZlc3QtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTEvYnVsbC1tYXJrZXQtcmlzaW5nLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy1maW5hbmNpYWwtbmV3c3BhcGVyLXF1b3Rlcy1pbnZlc3QtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>觀點在華爾街上有改變的傾向</h2>
<p>純粹基於紐約聯邦儲備銀行的衰退概率工具所説，道瓊斯、標普 500 和納斯達克綜合指數未來幾個季度可能會經歷顛簸。然而，這只是故事的一部分。</p>
<p>正如前面提到的，過去一個世紀裏，股票優於所有其他資產類別。對於願意退後一步、放寬視野並展望未來的投資者來説，這些下行指標，包括紐約聯邦儲備銀行的衰退概率工具，在歷史上並不特別令人擔憂。</p>
<p>經濟週期的非線性是一個完美的例子，展示了觀點如何改變局勢。雖然衰退是正常且不可避免的，但它們在歷史上持續時間很短。自二戰結束以來，只有 12 次衰退中有三次持續至少一年，沒有一次超過 18 個月。</p>
<p>另一方面，大多數經濟擴張都持續了多年。押注美國經濟（以及隨之的企業盈利）會擴張一直是一種成功策略。</p>
<p>能夠退後一步，展望未來，在華爾街上也是無可否認的有益的。</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<p>正式宣佈，新的牛市已確認。</p>
<p>標普 500 指數目前比其 10/12/22 年收盤低點上漲了 20%。上一次熊市中，該指數下跌了 25.4%，歷時 282 天。</p>
<p>閲讀更多信息請訪問 https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn。pic.twitter.com/tnRz1wdonp</p>
<blockquote>
<p>-- Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) 2023 年 6 月 8 日</p>
</blockquote>
<p>2023 年 6 月，隨着標普 500 牛市正式確認，Bespoke 投資集團的研究人員發佈了上述詳盡的數據集，這些數據發佈在社交媒體平台 X 上。Bespoke 計算了自 1929 年 9 月大蕭條開始以來標普 500 每次熊市和牛市的歷時。</p>
<p>從表中可以看出，平均標普 500 熊市僅持續了 286 個日曆日，大約 9.5 個月。相比之下，94 年間典型的牛市持續時間是熊市的 3.5 倍（1,011 個日曆日）。此外，27 次標普 500 牛市中有 13 次持續時間超過最長的熊市。長期樂觀主義者的價值顯而易見。</p>
<p>最終，我們永遠無法準確預測道瓊斯工業平均指數、標普 500 和納斯達克綜合指數的短期走勢。但這不應阻止長期投資者保持透視，並讓時間發揮其魔力。</p>

納斯達克 OMX 交易所

陶氏化學

<p>根據紐約聯邦儲備銀行的一項高度準確的預測工具顯示，道瓊斯指數、標普 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數可能會面臨下跌風險，該工具表明到 2025 年 9 月美國經濟陷入衰退的概率為 57.05%。歷史數據顯示，收益率曲線反轉往往在經濟衰退前發生，自 1929 年以來，三分之二的標普 500 指數下跌發生在宣佈經濟衰退之後。儘管股票表現優於其他資產類別，但當前的經濟指標表明主要股指可能面臨潛在的波動</p>

<p>Over the last century, no asset class has performed better than stocks. While Treasury bonds, housing, and various commodities, including gold, silver, and oil, have delivered positive returns, nothing has come close to matching the annualized return stocks have brought to the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的一個世紀裏，股票是表現最好的資產類別。儘管國債、房地產和各種大宗商品（包括黃金、白銀和石油）都有正收益，但沒有任何資產能與股票帶來的年化回報相提並論。</p>
</div><p>Thanks to the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, stock-split euphoria, and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, Wall Street's bull market rally recently celebrated its two-year anniversary. The mature stock-driven <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>(^DJI 0.09%), benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.40%), and growth-fueled <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>(^IXIC 0.63%) have all reached multiple record-closing highs in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於人工智能（AI）革命、股票分拆狂熱和超預期的企業盈利，華爾街的牛市最近慶祝了兩週年。成熟的股票驅動的道瓊斯工業平均指數（^DJI 0.09%）、基準的標普 500 指數（^GSPC 0.40%）和增長推動的納斯達克綜合指數（^IXIC 0.63%）在 2024 年都創下了多次創紀錄的收盤高點。</p>
</div><p>But history also tells us that stocks don't move higher in a straight line. Though no metric or indicator can concretely predict short-term directional moves in the major stock indexes with 100% accuracy, it doesn't stop investors from seeking out events and forecasting tools that have strongly correlated with advances or declines in the Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500, and/or Nasdaq Composite.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但歷史也告訴我們，股票不會一直直線上漲。儘管沒有任何指標或指示器能夠百分之百準確地預測主要股指的短期走勢，但這並不能阻止投資者尋找與道瓊斯、標普 500 和/或納斯達克綜合指數的漲跌強相關的事件和預測工具。</p>
</div><p>At the moment, one nearly flawless forecasting tool offers an ominous warning for Wall Street that investors would be wise not to ignore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，一個幾乎完美的預測工具向華爾街發出了一個不容忽視的警告。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTEvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWNyYXNoLXBsdW5nZS1maW5hbmNpYWwtbmV3c3BhcGVyLXJlY2Vzc2lvbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794551%2Fstock-market-crash-plunge-financial-newspaper-recession-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>It's been almost six decades since this probability tool was incorrect</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>自這一概率工具出現錯誤已經將近六十年</h2>
</div><p>For more than a year, I've examined a number of correlative events and predictive indicators that have, until now at least, incorrectly forecast downside to come in the Dow, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq Composite. This includes the first notable decline in U.S. M2 money supply since the Great Depression, a big decline in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), and one of the highest S&amp;P 500 Shiller price-to-earnings ratios during a continuous bull market, when back-tested 153 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一年多來，我已經研究了許多相關事件和預測指標，直到目前為止，它們都錯誤地預測了道瓊斯、標普 500 和納斯達克綜合指數的下跌。這包括美國 M2 貨幣供應自大蕭條以來首次顯著下降，美國會議委員會領先經濟指數（LEI）大幅下降，以及連續牛市中標普 500 Shiller 市盈率之一的最高水平，經過 153 年的回溯測試。</p>
</div><p>However, the one virtually flawless forecasting tool that portends trouble for the U.S. economy, and subsequently Wall Street's three major stock indexes, is the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's recession probability indicator.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，一個幾乎完美的預測工具預示着美國經濟和隨後的華爾街三大股指將面臨麻煩，那就是紐約聯邦儲備銀行的衰退概率指標。</p>
</div><p>The NY Fed's recession tool examines the spread (difference in yield) between the 10-year Treasury bond and three-month Treasury bill to calculate how likely it is that a U.S. recession will take shape within the next 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約聯儲的衰退工具檢查了 10 年期國債和三個月期國庫券之間的利差（收益率差異），以計算美國在未來 12 個月內陷入衰退的可能性有多大。</p>
</div><p>Usually, the Treasury yield curve slopes up and to the right. This is to say that bonds maturing 10 or 30 years from now are going to offer higher yields than Treasury bills set to mature in a year or less. The longer your money is tied up, the higher the yield should be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，國債收益率曲線向上傾斜。這意味着未來 10 年或 30 年到期的債券將提供比一年或更短期限的國庫券更高的收益率。你的資金綁定的時間越長，收益率就應該越高。</p>
</div><p>But every so often, the yield curve inverts, which is where short-term bills sport higher yields than long-term bonds. Inversions are typically a sign of skepticism from investors about the health of the U.S. economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但偶爾，收益率曲線會倒掛，即短期國庫券的收益率高於長期債券。倒掛通常是投資者對美國經濟健康持懷疑態度的跡象。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/32ce1706f8c3b4782bedca25b124cb03.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/32ce1706f8c3b4782bedca25b124cb03.png"/></p>
<p>US Recession Probability data by YCharts. Gray areas denote U.S. recessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的美國衰退概率數據。灰色區域表示美國衰退。</p>
</div><p>The spread between the 10-year and three-month Treasury yields has been upside-down for quite some time. According to the NY Fed's recession forecasting tool, there's a 57.05% chance of the U.S. dipping into a recession by September 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期和三個月期國庫券收益率之間的利差已經顛倒了相當長的時間。根據紐約聯儲的衰退預測工具，到 2025 年 9 月，美國陷入衰退的概率為 57.05%。</p>
</div><p>Keep in mind that this predictive tool has been wrong before. In October 1966, the probability of a U.S. recession taking shape within 12 months exceeded 40% but never materialized. While not every yield-curve inversion is followed by a recession, every U.S. recession following World War II has been preceded by a yield-curve inversion. Think of a yield-curve inversion as a necessary ingredient to an economic downturn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>請記住，這一預測工具以前曾出錯。1966 年 10 月，美國在 12 個月內陷入衰退的概率超過 40%，但從未實現。儘管並非每次收益率曲線倒掛都會導致衰退，但二戰後的每次美國衰退都是在收益率曲線倒掛之前。將收益率曲線倒掛視為經濟衰退的必要因素。</p>
</div><p>Although the NY Fed's recession probability indicator isn't perfect, it has been 100% accurate over the last 58 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管紐約聯邦儲備銀行的衰退概率指標並非完美，但在過去 58 年裏它已經 100% 準確。</p>
</div><p>You might be wondering what a predictive tool for the U.S. economy has to do with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq Composite. A study released in 2023 from <strong>Bank of America</strong> Global Research found that approximately two-thirds of the S&amp;P 500's peak-to-trough downturns since 1929 have occurred after, not prior to, a U.S. recession being declared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能想知道一個針對美國經濟的預測工具與道瓊斯工業平均指數、標普 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數有什麼關係。2023 年發佈的一項來自美國銀行全球研究的研究發現，自 1929 年以來，大約三分之二的標普 500 指數的峯值到谷底下降發生在美國宣佈衰退之後，而不是之前。</p>
</div><p>Even though the stock market doesn't mirror the U.S. economy, a recession would be expected to drag down corporate earnings. Eventually, this would be bad news for Wall Street and its major stock indexes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管股市並不完全反映美國經濟，但預計衰退將拖累企業盈利。最終，這對華爾街及其主要股指來説將是個壞消息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ1NTEvYnVsbC1tYXJrZXQtcmlzaW5nLXN0b2NrLWNoYXJ0cy1maW5hbmNpYWwtbmV3c3BhcGVyLXF1b3Rlcy1pbnZlc3QtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794551%2Fbull-market-rising-stock-charts-financial-newspaper-quotes-invest-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Perspective has a tendency to change things on Wall Street</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>觀點在華爾街上有改變的傾向</h2>
</div><p>Based purely on what the NY Fed's recession probability tool is saying, the Dow, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq Composite could be in for a bumpy ride in the quarters to come. However, this only tells part of the story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>純粹基於紐約聯邦儲備銀行的衰退概率工具所説，道瓊斯、標普 500 和納斯達克綜合指數未來幾個季度可能會經歷顛簸。然而，這只是故事的一部分。</p>
</div><p>As noted earlier, stocks have been superior to all other asset classes over the last century. For investors willing to take a step back, widen their lens, and look to the horizon, none of these downside indicators -- including the NY Fed's recessional probability tool -- are particularly worrisome.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如前面提到的，過去一個世紀裏，股票優於所有其他資產類別。對於願意退後一步、放寬視野並展望未來的投資者來説，這些下行指標，包括紐約聯邦儲備銀行的衰退概率工具，在歷史上並不特別令人擔憂。</p>
</div><p>The non-linearity of the economic cycle serves as the perfect example of how perspective can be a game changer. While recessions are both normal and inevitable, they're historically short-lived. Only three of the 12 recessions since the end of World War II endured at least one year, with none surpassing 18 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟週期的非線性是一個完美的例子，展示了觀點如何改變局勢。雖然衰退是正常且不可避免的，但它們在歷史上持續時間很短。自二戰結束以來，只有 12 次衰退中有三次持續至少一年，沒有一次超過 18 個月。</p>
</div><p>On the other end of the spectrum, a majority of economic expansions stuck around for multiple years. Wagering on the U.S. economy (and subsequently corporate earnings) to expand has been a winning strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，大多數經濟擴張都持續了多年。押注美國經濟（以及隨之的企業盈利）會擴張一直是一種成功策略。</p>
</div><p>Being able to take a step back and look to the horizon has been undeniably beneficial on Wall Street, too.</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能夠退後一步，展望未來，在華爾街上也是無可否認的有益的。</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
</div><p>It's official. A new bull market is confirmed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正式宣佈，新的牛市已確認。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 is now up 20% from its 10/12/22 closing low. The prior bear market saw the index fall 25.4% over 282 days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標普 500 指數目前比其 10/12/22 年收盤低點上漲了 20%。上一次熊市中，該指數下跌了 25.4%，歷時 282 天。</p>
</div><p>Read more at https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn. pic.twitter.com/tnRz1wdonp</p>
<blockquote>
<p>-- Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 8, 2023</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀更多信息請訪問 https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn。pic.twitter.com/tnRz1wdonp</p>
<blockquote>
<p>-- Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) 2023 年 6 月 8 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>In June 2023, with the S&amp;P 500 bull market officially confirmed, the researchers at Bespoke Investment Group released the extensive data set you see above, which was posted on social media platform X. Bespoke calculated the calendar day length of every bear and bull market for the S&amp;P 500 dating back to the start of the Great Depression in September 1929.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年 6 月，隨着標普 500 牛市正式確認，Bespoke 投資集團的研究人員發佈了上述詳盡的數據集，這些數據發佈在社交媒體平台 X 上。Bespoke 計算了自 1929 年 9 月大蕭條開始以來標普 500 每次熊市和牛市的歷時。</p>
</div><p>As you'll note from the table, the average S&amp;P 500 bear market has lasted only 286 calendar days, or roughly 9.5 months. Comparatively, the typical bull market over 94 years has endured 3.5 times as long (1,011 calendar days). Further, 13 out of 27 S&amp;P 500 bull markets have lasted longer than the lengthiest bear market. The value of being a long-term optimist simply couldn't be clearer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從表中可以看出，平均標普 500 熊市僅持續了 286 個日曆日，大約 9.5 個月。相比之下，94 年間典型的牛市持續時間是熊市的 3.5 倍（1,011 個日曆日）。此外，27 次標普 500 牛市中有 13 次持續時間超過最長的熊市。長期樂觀主義者的價值顯而易見。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, we're never going to be able to predict short-term directional moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq Composite with concrete accuracy. But this shouldn't stop long-term-minded investors from maintaining perspective and allowing time to work its magic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，我們永遠無法準確預測道瓊斯工業平均指數、標普 500 和納斯達克綜合指數的短期走勢。但這不應阻止長期投資者保持透視，並讓時間發揮其魔力。</p>
</div>

Are the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite Set to Plunge? 1 Virtually Flawless Forecasting Tool Thinks So.

- 股票在過去一個世紀表現優於其他資產類別。  
- NY Fed 的衰退概率工具顯示，未來 12 個月內美國衰退概率為 57.05%。  
- 歷史上，經濟衰退通常會影響企業盈利，進而影響股市表現。

道瓊斯指數、標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數是否會暴跌？一個幾乎完美的預測工具認為會如此