<p>當前牛市來勢洶洶，但已經兩年了，投資者可能會擔心它是否有耗盡動力的危險。</p>
<p>自 2022 年 10 月 12 日相對低點以來，<strong>標普 500 指數</strong>（^GSPC -0.18%）在接下來的兩年內上漲了 62.7%。該指數在今年 1 月達到了新的歷史高點，大約在熊市底部後的 15 個月，自那以後迅速攀升。</p>
<p>回顧歷史可以為當前牛市提供一些有價值的見解，以及投資者可以期待股票價格上漲多少。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ2NDkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYnVsbC1zaWxob3VldHRlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ2NDkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYnVsbC1zaWxob3VldHRlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>歷史的見解</h2>
<p>過去兩年的 62.7% 上漲幅度大約是二戰結束以來牛市前兩年的平均水平。</p>
<p>但這個平均水平受到 2009 年和 2020 年開始的最近牛市的極大影響。指數在 2009 年底的兩年內幾乎翻了一番，從 2020 年低點到 2022 年初的高點更是翻了一番多。</p>
<p>牛市前兩年的中位數增長略低，為 58%。當前牛市是二戰結束以來增長第四快的。在增長速度超過當前牛市的三個牛市中，只有一個（2009 年）看到指數在第三年上漲。</p>
<p>平均而言，牛市第三年的增長往往較為温和。在經歷了兩年的牛市後，中位數增長僅為 2%。將近一半的時間，回報是負面的。</p>
<p>另一個對當前牛市不利的因素是前一次熊市與經濟衰退無關。股票通常會迅速從由經濟衰退引起的價格低迷中恢復，但通常不會像非經濟衰退熊市那樣迅速恢復。</p>
<p><strong>查爾斯·施瓦布</strong> 和 The Leuthold Group 發現，沒有經濟衰退先導的牛市的平均兩年回報僅為 40.5%，但其中包括 1947 年的 7.5% 兩年增長，該時期包括了一次經濟衰退熊市。儘管如此，當前牛市是二戰後非經濟衰退熊市中最強勁的復甦。</p>
<p>此外，經濟衰退後的平均牛市持續時間為 61 個月，而非經濟衰退後的牛市持續時間僅為 33 個月。這可能意味着市場在達到相對高點前僅剩下幾個月。</p>
<p>因此，投資者可能會迎來回歸均值。隨着我們進入牛市第三年，股市的未來可能更像平均回報。但仍有一些理由保持樂觀。</p>
<h2>沒有放緩的跡象</h2>
<p>歷史平均水平確實對當前牛市的延續起到了不利作用，但如果你仔細觀察市場和整體經濟，情況會好很多。如果歷史上的某個時刻看起來像今天的市場，那就是上世紀 90 年代中期。</p>
<p>美聯儲在上世紀 90 年代成功實現了&#34;軟着陸&#34;，就在市場經歷了幾年由互聯網革命推動的增長。將&#34;互聯網&#34;替換為&#34;人工智能&#34;，你可能會得到 30 年後類似的故事。作為參考，標普 500 指數在牛市第五年的 1995 年回報率為 34%。</p>
<p>有很多因素支持牛市繼續第三年，甚至更長時間。儘管 8 月份出現了一份糟糕的就業報告，就業市場仍然強勁。隨着美聯儲計劃在 2025 年降息，只要高通脹不再出現，它應該會繼續支持就業市場。軟着陸的可能性越來越大。</p>
<p>儘管牛市主要受到大型科技公司在人工智能上的大規模投資推動，但有跡象表明市場表現正在向更廣泛的方向發展。像公用事業和消費品等更具防禦性的行業在牛市第二年表現強勁，利率穩定。與此同時，貨幣供應的加速可能會推動中小市值股票明年的更廣泛復甦。</p>
<p>常聽到&#34;牛市不會因為年齡而終結&#34;這句話。通常會有一個（或兩個）催化劑引發下一個熊市。這些催化劑通常是獨特且不可預測的。如果人們能預見到它們，它們就不會對市場產生如此大的影響。</p>
<p>也就是説，目前情況看起來不錯，沒有理由不保持樂觀。但投資者應始終意識到下一個熊市可能就在眼前。</p>

JUST 美國大型股 ETF - Goldman Sachs

<p>當前的牛市已經兩年了，標普 500 指數自 2022 年 10 月低點以來上漲了 62.7%。歷史數據顯示，牛市的前兩年平均漲幅為 58%，但第三年的漲幅往往較為平緩，平均僅為 2%。當前市場是自二戰以來非衰退熊市中最強勁的復甦。儘管歷史平均數據表明可能會放緩，但強勁的就業狀況和 2025 年潛在的美聯儲降息可能會支撐持續增長，讓人聯想起上世紀 90 年代中期的科技繁榮</p>

<p>The current bull market has come on fast and furious, but at two years old investors may be wondering if it's in danger of running out of gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前牛市來勢洶洶，但已經兩年了，投資者可能會擔心它是否有耗盡動力的危險。</p>
</div><p>Since hitting a relative low on Oct. 12, 2022, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.18%) increased 62.7% over the following two years. The index reached a new all-time high in January this year, about 15 months after the bottom of the bear market, and it's continued climbing quickly since.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年 10 月 12 日相對低點以來，<strong>標普 500 指數</strong>（^GSPC -0.18%）在接下來的兩年內上漲了 62.7%。該指數在今年 1 月達到了新的歷史高點，大約在熊市底部後的 15 個月，自那以後迅速攀升。</p>
</div><p>Looking to history can provide some valuable insights into the current bull market and how much higher investors can expect stocks to climb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顧歷史可以為當前牛市提供一些有價值的見解，以及投資者可以期待股票價格上漲多少。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTQ2NDkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYnVsbC1zaWxob3VldHRlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F794649%2Fgettyimages-bull-silhouette.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Here's what history has to say</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歷史的見解</h2>
</div><p>The 62.7% climb over the past two years is about average for the first two years of a bull market since the end of World War II.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去兩年的 62.7% 上漲幅度大約是二戰結束以來牛市前兩年的平均水平。</p>
</div><p>But that average is pulled considerably higher by the most recent bull markets starting in 2009 and 2020. The index nearly doubled within two years of the 2009 bottom, and it more than doubled from the lows of 2020 to the high at the start of 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這個平均水平受到 2009 年和 2020 年開始的最近牛市的極大影響。指數在 2009 年底的兩年內幾乎翻了一番，從 2020 年低點到 2022 年初的高點更是翻了一番多。</p>
</div><p>The median gain in a bull market over the first two years is a bit lower, at 58%. The current bull market represents the fourth-fastest recovery since the end of the war. Of the three that grew faster than the current bull market, only one (2009) saw the index move higher in the third year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>牛市前兩年的中位數增長略低，為 58%。當前牛市是二戰結束以來增長第四快的。在增長速度超過當前牛市的三個牛市中，只有一個（2009 年）看到指數在第三年上漲。</p>
</div><p>On average, third-year gains for a bull market tend to be muted. The median gain after a two-year bull run is just 2%. Nearly half the time, returns are negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均而言，牛市第三年的增長往往較為温和。在經歷了兩年的牛市後，中位數增長僅為 2%。將近一半的時間，回報是負面的。</p>
</div><p>Another factor working against the current bull market is that the preceding bear market wasn't tied to a recession. Stocks historically recover quickly from depressed prices caused by a recession, but they don't usually recover as quickly from a non-recession bear market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個對當前牛市不利的因素是前一次熊市與經濟衰退無關。股票通常會迅速從由經濟衰退引起的價格低迷中恢復，但通常不會像非經濟衰退熊市那樣迅速恢復。</p>
</div><p><strong>Charles Schwab</strong> and The Leuthold Group found that the average two-year return from a bull market that wasn't preceded by a recession was just 40.5%, but that includes the 7.5% two-year gain from 1947, which includes a recession bear market during that period. Even so, the current bull market represents the strongest recovery from a non-recession bear market since World War II.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查爾斯·施瓦布</strong> 和 The Leuthold Group 發現，沒有經濟衰退先導的牛市的平均兩年回報僅為 40.5%，但其中包括 1947 年的 7.5% 兩年增長，該時期包括了一次經濟衰退熊市。儘管如此，當前牛市是二戰後非經濟衰退熊市中最強勁的復甦。</p>
</div><p>What's more, the average bull market following a recession is 61 months versus just 33 months for one that doesn't follow a recession. That could mean just a few months left before the market hits a relative high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，經濟衰退後的平均牛市持續時間為 61 個月，而非經濟衰退後的牛市持續時間僅為 33 個月。這可能意味着市場在達到相對高點前僅剩下幾個月。</p>
</div><p>As such, investors may be in store for a reversion to the mean. The future of the stock market may look a lot more like the average returns as we enter the third year of the bull market. But there are some reasons to remain optimistic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，投資者可能會迎來回歸均值。隨着我們進入牛市第三年，股市的未來可能更像平均回報。但仍有一些理由保持樂觀。</p>
</div><h2>No signs of slowing down</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>沒有放緩的跡象</h2>
</div><p>Historical averages are certainly working against the continuation of the current bull market, but if you take a good look at the market and the economy as a whole, things look a lot brighter. If any point in history looks like today's market, its the mid-90s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史平均水平確實對當前牛市的延續起到了不利作用，但如果你仔細觀察市場和整體經濟，情況會好很多。如果歷史上的某個時刻看起來像今天的市場，那就是上世紀 90 年代中期。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve managed to pull off a &#34;soft landing&#34; in the 1990s, just as the market saw several years of growth fueled by the internet revolution. Replace &#34;internet&#34; with &#34;artificial intelligence&#34; and you might have a similar story 30 years later. For reference, the S&amp;P 500 returned 34% in 1995, the fifth year of the bull market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲在上世紀 90 年代成功實現了&#34;軟着陸&#34;，就在市場經歷了幾年由互聯網革命推動的增長。將&#34;互聯網&#34;替換為&#34;人工智能&#34;，你可能會得到 30 年後類似的故事。作為參考，標普 500 指數在牛市第五年的 1995 年回報率為 34%。</p>
</div><p>There are a lot of things working in favor of the continuation of the bull market for a third year, if not longer. Despite one bad jobs report in August, employment remains strong. With the Fed set to cut interest rates in 2025, it should provide continued support for the jobs market as long as high inflation doesn't rear its ugly head again. A soft landing looks increasingly likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有很多因素支持牛市繼續第三年，甚至更長時間。儘管 8 月份出現了一份糟糕的就業報告，就業市場仍然強勁。隨着美聯儲計劃在 2025 年降息，只要高通脹不再出現，它應該會繼續支持就業市場。軟着陸的可能性越來越大。</p>
</div><p>While the bull market has mostly been driven by big tech companies with massive investments in artificial intelligence, there are signs that the market performance is broadening out. More defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples have seen strong performance in the second year of the bull market as interest rates stabilized. Meanwhile, an accelerating money supply could fuel a broader recovery from mid- and small-cap stocks next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管牛市主要受到大型科技公司在人工智能上的大規模投資推動，但有跡象表明市場表現正在向更廣泛的方向發展。像公用事業和消費品等更具防禦性的行業在牛市第二年表現強勁，利率穩定。與此同時，貨幣供應的加速可能會推動中小市值股票明年的更廣泛復甦。</p>
</div><p>It's common to hear the phrase &#34;bull markets don't die of old age.&#34; There's usually a catalyst (or two) that brings about the next bear market. Those catalysts are typically unique and unpredictable. If people saw them coming, they wouldn't have such a big impact on the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>常聽到&#34;牛市不會因為年齡而終結&#34;這句話。通常會有一個（或兩個）催化劑引發下一個熊市。這些催化劑通常是獨特且不可預測的。如果人們能預見到它們，它們就不會對市場產生如此大的影響。</p>
</div><p>That is to say, things look good right now, and there's no reason not to remain optimistic. But investors should always remain aware that the next bear market could be right around the corner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，目前情況看起來不錯，沒有理由不保持樂觀。但投資者應始終意識到下一個熊市可能就在眼前。</p>
</div>

The Bull Market Just Turned 2 Years Old. Here's What History Says Happens Next.

- 當前牛市已持續兩年，標普 500 指數上漲 62.7%。  
- 歷史數據顯示，非衰退熊市後的牛市平均回報為 40.5%。  
- 儘管面臨挑戰，市場前景仍樂觀，尤其是就業和技術投資。

牛市剛剛迎來兩週年。歷史告訴我們接下來可能會發生什麼