<p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.26%) 股票目前交易價格約為 230 美元，但我認為它的交易時間不多了。到年底，如果股價跌至 200 美元以下，我不會感到意外，因為基本面不支持蘋果目前的股價。</p>
<p>蘋果業務面臨很大壓力，除非發生重大變化，否則股票將迎來一輪調整。</p>
<h2>蘋果的營收在 2022 年達到峯值後就沒有增長過</h2>
<p>蘋果的業務無需多言。雖然蘋果的設備在數百萬（甚至數十億）人手中，但似乎蘋果的營收已經達到峯值。自 2022 年以來，蘋果的營收沒有增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c8890a08cc131986a7b9bd429ad1503.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c8890a08cc131986a7b9bd429ad1503.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 AAPL 營收（TTM）數據。</p>
<p>公司需要增長來維持不斷增長的股價，而蘋果並未表現出這一點。當蘋果在萬聖節之夜（一個可怕的財報發佈時間！）公佈最新業績時，我們將瞭解更多情況，但初步跡象並不樂觀。</p>
<p>蘋果在本季度推出了 iPhone 16，多份報告顯示 iPhone 16 的銷售不如公司預期。由於 iPhone 銷售佔蘋果總營收的約一半，這一業務板塊必須表現良好才能使其他業務蓬勃發展。這一報道的弱點導致華爾街分析師調整了對即將到來季度的預期，共識每股收益（EPS）預期從 30 天前的 1.60 美元下降至現在的 1.55 美元。</p>
<p>在財報發佈前預期下調從未是一個好兆頭。如果蘋果的其他業績不佳，如果股價已經處於極高估值，那麼不要感到意外股價會受到打擊。</p>
<h2>儘管業績平平，蘋果的股價仍享有巨大溢價</h2>
<p>蘋果的股價溢價遠高於大多數投資者意識到的水平。以 35 倍滾動盈利和 31 倍預期盈利計算，蘋果的股價非常昂貴。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4e4e6bb13809f0b95a078b6b4e5ae03.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4e4e6bb13809f0b95a078b6b4e5ae03.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 AAPL 市盈率數據。</p>
<p>雖然其他股票的估值更高，但這些公司正在發佈令人印象深刻的增長數字。</p>
<p>從長期來看，股價波動與盈利增長密切相關。因此，當像 <strong>標普 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC -0.05%) 平均每年實現 10% 的回報時，公司通常需要超過這一水平的盈利增長才能持續擊敗市場，_如果_這兩種證券以相同的估值交易。</p>
<p>上一季度，蘋果的每股收益（EPS）以 10% 的速度增長。在 2024 財年第四季度（截至 9 月 30 日左右），分析師預計增長 14%。這兩個數字要麼正好達到標普 500 的長期平均水平，要麼略高。然而，考慮到標普 500 的滾動盈利為 24.7 倍，預期盈利為 23.8 倍，蘋果的估值分別比這些指標高出 43% 和 32%。</p>
<p>最優秀的企業通常因其執行力和被認為穩定而獲得溢價估值，而蘋果絕對符合這一標準。問題是，這值多少錢？我無法為市場或您決定，但對我來説，蘋果目前獲得的溢價太高。</p>
<p>現在有太多股票可以買，它們的估值遠低於蘋果，增長速度也比蘋果快。購買這些股票而不是蘋果可能會提高我的長期回報，因此它們是更好的選擇。</p>
<p>與此同時，如果蘋果在第四季度的業績不佳，其股價可能會跌破 200 美元，因為當前的股價意味着公司必須完美執行。初步跡象表明它並沒有做到，這可能是股價下跌所需的催化劑。</p>

蘋果

<p>蘋果股票面臨壓力，預測顯示其股價可能會在年底前跌破目前的交易價格。自 2022 年達到頂峯以來，公司的營收一直停滯不前，令人失望的 iPhone 16 銷量導致分析師下調了盈利預期。儘管估值較高，但蘋果的增長速度未能跟上其高溢價價格，引發對其未來表現的擔憂。如果即將公佈的財報不符合預期，預計股價將出現顯著下跌</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.26%) stock is currently trading around $230, but I think it's trading on borrowed time. By the end of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if the stock was below $200, because the fundamentals don't support Apple's current stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.26%) 股票目前交易價格約為 230 美元，但我認為它的交易時間不多了。到年底，如果股價跌至 200 美元以下，我不會感到意外，因為基本面不支持蘋果目前的股價。</p>
</div><p>There is a lot of pressure on Apple's business, and unless something drastic changes, the stock is due for a correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果業務面臨很大壓力，除非發生重大變化，否則股票將迎來一輪調整。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's revenue peaked in 2022 and hasn't grown since</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果的營收在 2022 年達到峯值後就沒有增長過</h2>
</div><p>Apple's business needs no introduction. Its devices are in the hands of millions (if not billions) of people, although Apple seems to have hit a peak in its revenue. Since 2022, Apple's revenue hasn't increased any.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的業務無需多言。雖然蘋果的設備在數百萬（甚至數十億）人手中，但似乎蘋果的營收已經達到峯值。自 2022 年以來，蘋果的營收沒有增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c8890a08cc131986a7b9bd429ad1503.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c8890a08cc131986a7b9bd429ad1503.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 AAPL 營收（TTM）數據。</p>
</div><p>Companies need growth to sustain an increasing stock price, and Apple hasn't shown that. We'll find out more about Apple's latest results when it reports on Halloween night (a scary time to report earnings!), but early indications aren't great.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司需要增長來維持不斷增長的股價，而蘋果並未表現出這一點。當蘋果在萬聖節之夜（一個可怕的財報發佈時間！）公佈最新業績時，我們將瞭解更多情況，但初步跡象並不樂觀。</p>
</div><p>Apple released the iPhone 16 during the quarter, and multiple reports have indicated that sales of the iPhone 16 aren't what the company expected. Since iPhone sales make up about half of Apple's total revenue, this segment must do well for the rest of the business to thrive. This reported weakness has caused Wall Street analysts to tweak their expectations for the upcoming quarter, as the consensus earnings per share (EPS) projection has declined from $1.60 30 days ago to $1.55 now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果在本季度推出了 iPhone 16，多份報告顯示 iPhone 16 的銷售不如公司預期。由於 iPhone 銷售佔蘋果總營收的約一半，這一業務板塊必須表現良好才能使其他業務蓬勃發展。這一報道的弱點導致華爾街分析師調整了對即將到來季度的預期，共識每股收益（EPS）預期從 30 天前的 1.60 美元下降至現在的 1.55 美元。</p>
</div><p>Falling projections heading into earnings are never a good sign. If the rest of Apple's results aren't great, don't be surprised if the stock takes a hit, as it's trading at an incredibly pricey valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在財報發佈前預期下調從未是一個好兆頭。如果蘋果的其他業績不佳，如果股價已經處於極高估值，那麼不要感到意外股價會受到打擊。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's stock fetches a massive premium despite lackluster results</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>儘管業績平平，蘋果的股價仍享有巨大溢價</h2>
</div><p>Apple's stock fetches a far greater premium than most investors realize. At 35 times trailing earnings and 31 times forward earnings, Apple's stock is very expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的股價溢價遠高於大多數投資者意識到的水平。以 35 倍滾動盈利和 31 倍預期盈利計算，蘋果的股價非常昂貴。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4e4e6bb13809f0b95a078b6b4e5ae03.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4e4e6bb13809f0b95a078b6b4e5ae03.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 AAPL 市盈率數據。</p>
</div><p>While other stocks are trading at more expensive valuations, those companies are posting impressive growth numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然其他股票的估值更高，但這些公司正在發佈令人印象深刻的增長數字。</p>
</div><p>Over the long haul, stock price movements are heavily correlated to earnings growth. So, when a benchmark index like the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.05%) averages a 10% return per year, that's the level of earnings growth a company typically needs to beat the market consistently, <em>if</em> the two securities trade at the same valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從長期來看，股價波動與盈利增長密切相關。因此，當像 <strong>標普 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC -0.05%) 平均每年實現 10% 的回報時，公司通常需要超過這一水平的盈利增長才能持續擊敗市場，_如果_這兩種證券以相同的估值交易。</p>
</div><p>Last quarter, Apple's earnings per share (EPS) grew at a 10% pace. In fourth-quarter fiscal year 2024 (ending around Sept. 30), analysts expect 14% growth. Both figures are either right at the S&amp;P 500's long-term average or slightly higher. However, with the S&amp;P 500 trading at 24.7 times trailing earnings and 23.8 times forward earnings, Apple holds a 43% and 32% premium to those respective valuation metrics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上一季度，蘋果的每股收益（EPS）以 10% 的速度增長。在 2024 財年第四季度（截至 9 月 30 日左右），分析師預計增長 14%。這兩個數字要麼正好達到標普 500 的長期平均水平，要麼略高。然而，考慮到標普 500 的滾動盈利為 24.7 倍，預期盈利為 23.8 倍，蘋果的估值分別比這些指標高出 43% 和 32%。</p>
</div><p>Best-in-class businesses often get a premium valuation due to their execution and perceived steadiness, which Apple absolutely qualifies for. The question is, how much is that worth? I can't decide that for the market or you, but for me, the current premium Apple gets is far too high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最優秀的企業通常因其執行力和被認為穩定而獲得溢價估值，而蘋果絕對符合這一標準。問題是，這值多少錢？我無法為市場或您決定，但對我來説，蘋果目前獲得的溢價太高。</p>
</div><p>There are way too many stocks I can buy right now that trade at far cheaper valuations that are growing faster than Apple. Buying these stocks instead of Apple will likely boost my long-term returns, so they make for much better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在有太多股票可以買，它們的估值遠低於蘋果，增長速度也比蘋果快。購買這些股票而不是蘋果可能會提高我的長期回報，因此它們是更好的選擇。</p>
</div><p>In the meantime, if Apple doesn't report great Q4 results, its stock could sink below the $200 mark, as its current price tag means the company must execute to perfection. Early indications are that it hasn't, and that could be the catalyst the stock needs to send it tumbling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，如果蘋果在第四季度的業績不佳，其股價可能會跌破 200 美元，因為當前的股價意味着公司必須完美執行。初步跡象表明它並沒有做到，這可能是股價下跌所需的催化劑。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Apple Stock Will Be Below $200 by the End of the Year

- 蘋果公司股價面臨下行壓力，預計年底可能低於當前水平。  
- 2022 年後，蘋果收入未增長，iPhone 16 銷售不佳影響整體業績。  
- 當前高估值下，若第四季度業績不佳，股價可能大幅下跌。

預測：蘋果的股票將在年底前跌至 200 美元以下