<p>在 2023 年令人遺忘的一年之後，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -1.14%）終於在上週的第三季度財報中獲得了一些救贖。</p>
<p>週四，股價在一天內飆升 22%，這是多年來最佳的單日表現，儘管汽車部門的銷售增長乏力，但仍實現了強勁的利潤增長。營業收入躍升 54%，達到 27 億美元。</p>
<p>這一表現得益於其能源生產和儲存業務以及服務部門的強勁增長，同時公司在第二季度裁員後控制了成本。特斯拉還實現了每輛車的銷售成本創歷史新低，達到 35,100 美元。</p>
<p>除了強勁的利潤增長外，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克對明年生產增長的預測也讓投資者感到振奮，他預計公司將在 2025 年將產量提高 20% 至 30%。公司計劃製造大約 180 萬輛汽車，這意味着明年計劃增加 36 萬輛至 54 萬輛的產量。</p>
<p>目前尚不清楚這些增長將來自何處。特斯拉計劃在明年開始生產剛剛推出的 Cybercab，並預計在 2026 年擴大生產，表示公司目標是每年生產至少 200 萬輛這款兩座的自動駕駛汽車。</p>
<p>然而，特斯拉投資者似乎並沒有考慮到一個制約因素，因此上週股價飆升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU0MTcvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU0MTcvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>電動車市場是否已達到頂峯？</h2>
<p>電動車（EV）行業面臨困境，像特斯拉這樣的純電動車製造商大多實現了平穩或令人失望的增長，而傳統汽車製造商如 <strong>通用汽車</strong> 和 <strong>福特汽車公司</strong> 則降低了對其電動車業務的預期，歸咎於高成本、糟糕的經濟效益和疲軟的需求。</p>
<p>馬斯克表示，他認為特斯拉是唯一一家盈利的電動車公司，並且沒有任何汽車製造商的電動車部門是盈利的。這對特斯拉來説是個讚譽，但行業的需求增長也顯著放緩，正如下圖所示，這是特斯拉在財報中分享的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU0MTcvdGVzbGEtY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU0MTcvdGVzbGEtY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<p>正如你所看到的，電動車的增長，尤其是在中國以外，過去四個季度基本上已經達到頂峯。沒有單一原因導致這一趨勢。相反，這似乎是由於電動車與內燃機（ICE）車輛相比價格較高、續航焦慮、早期用户已經購買電動車以及消費者普遍偏好加油便利的汽油車等多種因素的綜合結果。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，混合動力車的銷量在電池電動車的市場中迅速增長，顯示出消費者喜歡電動車的高效，但可能更偏愛混合動力車的便利性。</p>
<p>特斯拉展示了這張圖表，以支持電動車有顯著增長機會的觀點，因為預計電動車將從內燃機車輛中搶佔市場份額。然而，向新技術的過渡並不總是順利和可預測的，特別是當新技術價格較高時。例如，一些預測者曾預計電子書會使紙質書籍過時，但這並沒有發生。</p>
<p>馬斯克似乎認為，特斯拉能夠憑藉像 Cybercab 這樣的新車型獨自推動市場增長，就像 2020 年那樣，但自那時以來，電動車市場已經發生了重大變化。市場上有數十款電動車型來自不同的汽車公司，幾乎所有車型選項，從皮卡到轎車，都可供選擇。</p>
<p>在這一點上，特斯拉要獨自推動電動車市場的增長將比 2020 年 Model Y 推出時更加困難。</p>
<h2>特斯拉麪臨的重大問題</h2>
<p>作為一款沒有方向盤或踏板的自動駕駛汽車，Cybercab 有潛力帶來變革，但它尚未獲得德克薩斯州或加利福尼亞州的監管批准，這兩個州是其計劃推出的目標市場。</p>
<p>即使假設特斯拉獲得批准，考慮到其他自動駕駛汽車公司面臨的監管障礙和緩慢的推出速度，很難想象在一兩年內會有數百萬輛這樣的汽車上路，正如馬斯克所期待的那樣。即使只是一起事故，也可能對馬斯克的自動駕駛夢想造成重大打擊。</p>
<p>換句話説，特斯拉必須繼續在其核心業務中實現增長，直到電動車能夠成為可行的商業模式，這在市場達到頂峯和行業普遍低迷的情況下似乎很困難。</p>
<p>對於一家傳統汽車製造商來説，其股票通常以個位數的市盈率交易，這樣的風險較小，但特斯拉遠非傳統汽車製造商，其定價也與之不同。該股目前的市盈率超過 100，基於調整後的每股收益。</p>
<p>為了維持這一估值，公司需要在明年實現生產激增，或在 Cybercab 上取得重大進展。這兩者都不會容易，如果特斯拉未能達標，股價可能會在明年再次暴跌，類似於 2024 年初的情況。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉最近的財報顯示，運營收入增長了 54%，主要得益於其能源和服務部門。儘管股價上漲了 22%，但對電動車市場趨於平穩的擔憂依然存在，傳統汽車製造商面臨挑戰，需求增長放緩。首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克對 Cybercab 的雄心勃勃的生產預測可能面臨監管障礙，增加了增長前景的複雜性。在這些市場挑戰下，特斯拉超過 100 的高市盈率也引發了對其估值的質疑</p>

<p>After a forgettable 2023, <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -1.14%) finally scored some redemption in its third-quarter earnings report last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年令人遺忘的一年之後，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -1.14%）終於在上週的第三季度財報中獲得了一些救贖。</p>
</div><p>The stock soared 22% in a single day on Thursday, its best one-day performance in years as it overcame tepid sales growth in its automotive division to post strong profit growth. Operating income jumped 54% to $2.7 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，股價在一天內飆升 22%，這是多年來最佳的單日表現，儘管汽車部門的銷售增長乏力，但仍實現了強勁的利潤增長。營業收入躍升 54%，達到 27 億美元。</p>
</div><p>That performance was driven by strong increases in its energy generation and storage business and its services segment, as well as the company controlling costs after a round of layoffs in the second quarter. Tesla also achieved its lowest cost of goods sold per vehicle ever at $35,100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一表現得益於其能源生產和儲存業務以及服務部門的強勁增長，同時公司在第二季度裁員後控制了成本。特斯拉還實現了每輛車的銷售成本創歷史新低，達到 35,100 美元。</p>
</div><p>In addition to the strong profit growth, CEO Elon Musk's production growth forecast also encouraged investors for next year, as he expects the company to increase production by 20% to 30% in 2025. The company is on track to manufacture roughly 1.8 million vehicles, meaning it aims to increase production by 360,000 to 540,000 vehicles next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了強勁的利潤增長外，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克對明年生產增長的預測也讓投資者感到振奮，他預計公司將在 2025 年將產量提高 20% 至 30%。公司計劃製造大約 180 萬輛汽車，這意味着明年計劃增加 36 萬輛至 54 萬輛的產量。</p>
</div><p>It's not entirely clear where that would come from. Tesla plans to begin production of the Cybercab, which it just introduced, next year, and sees it scaling production in 2026, saying the company is aiming for at least 2 million units per year of the two-seater autonomous vehicle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前尚不清楚這些增長將來自何處。特斯拉計劃在明年開始生產剛剛推出的 Cybercab，並預計在 2026 年擴大生產，表示公司目標是每年生產至少 200 萬輛這款兩座的自動駕駛汽車。</p>
</div><p>However, there's one constraint that Tesla investors didn't seem to be considering as they sent the stock soaring last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，特斯拉投資者似乎並沒有考慮到一個制約因素，因此上週股價飆升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU0MTcvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F795417%2Ftesla-model-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Is the EV market plateauing?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>電動車市場是否已達到頂峯？</h2>
</div><p>The electric vehicle (EV) industry has struggled as pure plays like Tesla have mostly posted flat or disappointing growth, and legacy automakers like <strong>General Motors</strong> and <strong>Ford Motor Company</strong> have tamped down expectations for their EV businesses, blaming high costs, bad economics, and weak demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電動車（EV）行業面臨困境，像特斯拉這樣的純電動車製造商大多實現了平穩或令人失望的增長，而傳統汽車製造商如 <strong>通用汽車</strong> 和 <strong>福特汽車公司</strong> 則降低了對其電動車業務的預期，歸咎於高成本、糟糕的經濟效益和疲軟的需求。</p>
</div><p>Musk said he believes Tesla is the only profitable EV company, and that there is no EV division of any automobile manufacturer that is profitable. That's a credit to Tesla, but demand growth in the industry has also slowed significantly as the chart below shows, which Tesla shared in its earnings presentation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>馬斯克表示，他認為特斯拉是唯一一家盈利的電動車公司，並且沒有任何汽車製造商的電動車部門是盈利的。這對特斯拉來説是個讚譽，但行業的需求增長也顯著放緩，正如下圖所示，這是特斯拉在財報中分享的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU0MTcvdGVzbGEtY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F795417%2Ftesla-chart.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><p>As you can see, EV growth, especially outside of China, has essentially plateaued over the last four quarters. There's no single reason for that trend. Instead, it seems to owe to a combination of higher prices for EVs compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, range anxiety, early adopters having purchased EVs already, and general preferences for gas vehicles like convenient fill-ups.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你所看到的，電動車的增長，尤其是在中國以外，過去四個季度基本上已經達到頂峯。沒有單一原因導致這一趨勢。相反，這似乎是由於電動車與內燃機（ICE）車輛相比價格較高、續航焦慮、早期用户已經購買電動車以及消費者普遍偏好加油便利的汽油車等多種因素的綜合結果。</p>
</div><p>Notably, sales of hybrids have taken off in place of battery electric vehicles, showing that consumers like the efficiency of an electric car, but may prefer the convenience of the hybrid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，混合動力車的銷量在電池電動車的市場中迅速增長，顯示出消費者喜歡電動車的高效，但可能更偏愛混合動力車的便利性。</p>
</div><p>Tesla presents this chart to support the idea that there is a significant opportunity for growth in EVs, as electric vehicles are anticipated to capture market share from ICE vehicles. Nonetheless, the transition to new technologies may not always follow a smooth and predictable path, particularly when the new technology is pricier. For example, some prognosticators expected e-books to make print books obsolete, but that hasn't happened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉展示了這張圖表，以支持電動車有顯著增長機會的觀點，因為預計電動車將從內燃機車輛中搶佔市場份額。然而，向新技術的過渡並不總是順利和可預測的，特別是當新技術價格較高時。例如，一些預測者曾預計電子書會使紙質書籍過時，但這並沒有發生。</p>
</div><p>Musk seems to think that Tesla is capable of growing the market on its own with a new model like the Cybercab as it was able to do back in 2020, but the EV market has evolved substantially since then. There are dozens of EV models on the market from a range of auto companies, and most vehicle model options, from pickup trucks to sedans, are available.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>馬斯克似乎認為，特斯拉能夠憑藉像 Cybercab 這樣的新車型獨自推動市場增長，就像 2020 年那樣，但自那時以來，電動車市場已經發生了重大變化。市場上有數十款電動車型來自不同的汽車公司，幾乎所有車型選項，從皮卡到轎車，都可供選擇。</p>
</div><p>At this point, it will be more difficult for Tesla to grow the EV market on its own than it was in 2020 when the Model Y came out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這一點上，特斯拉要獨自推動電動車市場的增長將比 2020 年 Model Y 推出時更加困難。</p>
</div><h2>The big question facing Tesla</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉麪臨的重大問題</h2>
</div><p>As an autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, the Cybercab has the ability to be transformative, but it hasn't yet received regulatory approval in Texas or California, the two states it's aiming to launch in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為一款沒有方向盤或踏板的自動駕駛汽車，Cybercab 有潛力帶來變革，但它尚未獲得德克薩斯州或加利福尼亞州的監管批准，這兩個州是其計劃推出的目標市場。</p>
</div><p>Even assuming Tesla gets approval, it's hard to imagine millions of these vehicles hitting the road in a year or two as Musk seems to expect, given the regulatory hurdles and slow rollouts that other autonomous vehicle companies have faced. Even just one accident could present a significant setback to Musk's autonomous dreams.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使假設特斯拉獲得批准，考慮到其他自動駕駛汽車公司面臨的監管障礙和緩慢的推出速度，很難想象在一兩年內會有數百萬輛這樣的汽車上路，正如馬斯克所期待的那樣。即使只是一起事故，也可能對馬斯克的自動駕駛夢想造成重大打擊。</p>
</div><p>In other words, Tesla will have to continue achieving growth in its core business until it's clear that EVs can be a viable business, and that seems difficult with the market plateauing and a general malaise in the industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，特斯拉必須繼續在其核心業務中實現增長，直到電動車能夠成為可行的商業模式，這在市場達到頂峯和行業普遍低迷的情況下似乎很困難。</p>
</div><p>For a traditional automaker, whose stocks often trade for single-digit price-to-earnings ratios, that would be less of a risk, but Tesla is far from a traditional automaker and it isn't priced like one. The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of over 100 based on trailing adjusted earnings per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於一家傳統汽車製造商來説，其股票通常以個位數的市盈率交易，這樣的風險較小，但特斯拉遠非傳統汽車製造商，其定價也與之不同。該股目前的市盈率超過 100，基於調整後的每股收益。</p>
</div><p>To sustain that valuation, the company will need to come through with a production boom next year or make significant headway with the Cybercab. Neither one of those will be easy, and if Tesla falls short, the stock could plunge again next year, much like it did in early 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了維持這一估值，公司需要在明年實現生產激增，或在 Cybercab 上取得重大進展。這兩者都不會容易，如果特斯拉未能達標，股價可能會在明年再次暴跌，類似於 2024 年初的情況。</p>
</div>

1 Chart That Shows Why Tesla Is Still Overvalued

- 特斯拉第三季度財報顯示，運營收入增長 54%，達 1.7 億美元。  
- CEO 馬斯克預計 2025 年生產增長 20% 至 30%，目標為 180 萬輛。  
- 然而，電動車市場增長放緩，特斯拉需克服監管障礙以實現目標。  

一張圖表顯示為什麼特斯拉仍然被高估