<p><strong>開市客</strong>(COST 0.49%) 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN 6.19%) 是全球最具韌性的零售商之一。開市客的倉儲商店通過大宗折扣吸引了大量顧客，並通過付費會員制度將他們鎖定。亞馬遜是全球最大的電子商務公司，通過提供大幅折扣、便宜的運輸選項以及更多的會員福利，維護了其廣泛的競爭優勢，全球超過 2 億的 Prime 會員享受這些服務。</p>
<p>開市客專注於大宗採購、粘性的會員制度以及在美國和海外市場的持續實體店擴張，使其免受亞馬遜增長的影響，而其他實體零售商則逐漸退縮。亞馬遜還利用其雲業務的高利潤收入來補貼其低利潤的電子商務業務擴張——這一獨特策略使其在許多實體零售競爭對手中佔據了優勢。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU4MDgvc2hvcHBlci1wdXNoZXMtY2FydC1pbi1hLXdhcmVob3VzZS1zdG9yZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU4MDgvc2hvcHBlci1wdXNoZXMtY2FydC1pbi1hLXdhcmVob3VzZS1zdG9yZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>在過去三年中，開市客的股票上漲了 80%，而亞馬遜的股票僅上漲了 13%。讓我們看看為什麼這家批發零售商的表現如此優於亞馬遜，以及它是否會在可預見的未來繼續成為更好的投資選擇。</p>
<h2>為什麼多頭看好開市客？</h2>
<p>開市客的長期擴張主要得益於新店開業、穩定的可比銷售、持卡人增長和高續費率。從 2020 財年到 2024 財年（截至今年 9 月），它始終滿足這四個條件。</p>
<p>| 指標 | 2020 財年 | 2021 財年 | 2022 財年 | 2023 財年 | 2024 財年 |
| 總店鋪數量增長（同比）| 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| 可比銷售 * 增長（同比）| 9.2% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% |
| 持卡人增長（同比）| 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7% |
| 全球續費率 * | 88.4% | 88.7% | 90.4% | 90.4% | 90.5% |</p>
<p>數據來源：開市客。* 不包括燃油和外匯。同比 = 年同比。</p>
<p>從 2020 財年到 2024 財年，開市客的收入以 11% 的年複合增長率（CAGR）增長，EPS 以 16% 的 CAGR 增長。由於疫情促使更多人囤積包裝食品和日用消費品，其增長在 2021 財年和 2022 財年加速，但在接下來的兩年中仍繼續增長，即使通貨膨脹抑制了消費者支出。它還在七年來首次提高了會員費，以抵消這種壓力。</p>
<p>開市客的增長率並不驚人，但其韌性、規模和粘性使其成為一個良好的避風港投資。從 2024 財年到 2027 財年，分析師預計其收入和 EPS 將分別以 7% 和 10% 的 CAGR 增長。這個前景是穩定的，但其股票在今年的收益基礎上看起來有點昂貴，市盈率為 50 倍。</p>
<h2>為什麼市場對亞馬遜的熱情較低？</h2>
<p>亞馬遜的大部分收入來自其電子商務市場，但其大部分利潤來自其亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）雲平台。由於疫情促使更多消費者在線購物，更多公司升級其雲基礎設施，其電子商務和雲業務在 2020 年和 2021 年都迅速增長。</p>
<p>| 指標 | 2020 年 | 2021 年 | 2022 年 | 2023 年 | 2024 年上半年 |
| 北美銷售增長（同比）| 38% | 18% | 13% | 12% | 11% |
| 國際銷售增長（同比）| 40% | 22% | (8%) | 11% | 8% |
| AWS 銷售增長（同比）| 30% | 37% | 29% | 13% | 18% |
| 總銷售增長（同比）| 38% | 22% | 9% | 12% | 11% |</p>
<p>數據來源：亞馬遜。</p>
<p>但在 2022 年，亞馬遜的兩個增長引擎都停滯不前，因為疫情帶來的順風消退，通貨膨脹抑制了消費者支出，利率上升使許多公司削減了雲支出。由於對掙扎中的電動車製造商 <strong>Rivian</strong> 的大量投資失利，亞馬遜全年也變得虧損。</p>
<p>在過去一年半中，隨着宏觀環境再次回暖，亞馬遜的增長穩定下來。其電子商務業務恢復了增長，因為它優先考慮更快的交付，銷售更多日常必需品，並擴展到更多國家。隨着更多公司升級其雲基礎設施以應對新生成的 AI 應用的激增，AWS 的增長再次加速。</p>
<p>從 2023 年到 2026 年，分析師預計亞馬遜的收入和 EPS 將分別以 11% 和 35% 的 CAGR 增長，因為其短期逆風減弱。基於這些預期，其股票相對於其增長仍然看起來合理，市盈率為 33 倍。</p>
<h2>更好的投資選擇：亞馬遜</h2>
<p>開市客的表現出色，但其估值已經超前於其增長率。因此，我認為在過去三年中被廣泛低估的亞馬遜，在未來三年中可能比開市客有更大的上行潛力，因為宏觀環境終於改善。</p>

開市客

亞馬遜

<p>開市客和亞馬遜是兩家領先的零售商，在過去三年中，開市客的股票增長表現優於亞馬遜（80% 對 13%）。開市客的成功歸因於其門店擴張、強勁的會員增長和高續費率，而亞馬遜的增長因疫情後挑戰和通貨膨脹而放緩。分析師預計開市客的收入和每股收益將穩步增長，儘管其股票看起來價格較高。相比之下，亞馬遜的電子商務和 AWS 增長已趨於穩定，但由於投資和市場條件，2022 年面臨盈利問題</p>

<p><strong>Costco</strong>(COST 0.49%) and <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 6.19%) are two of the world's most resilient retailers. Costco's warehouse stores attract a lot of shoppers with its bulk discounts, and it locks them in with its paid memberships. Amazon is the world's largest e-commerce company, and it maintains a wide moat by providing steep discounts, cheap shipping options, and more perks to over 200 million Prime members worldwide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>開市客</strong>(COST 0.49%) 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN 6.19%) 是全球最具韌性的零售商之一。開市客的倉儲商店通過大宗折扣吸引了大量顧客，並通過付費會員制度將他們鎖定。亞馬遜是全球最大的電子商務公司，通過提供大幅折扣、便宜的運輸選項以及更多的會員福利，維護了其廣泛的競爭優勢，全球超過 2 億的 Prime 會員享受這些服務。</p>
</div><p>Costco's focus on bulk purchases, sticky memberships, and constant brick-and-mortar expansion in the U.S. and overseas markets shielded it from Amazon's growth as other brick-and-mortar retailers retreated. Amazon also leveraged its cloud business' higher-margin revenues to subsidize the expansion of its lower-margin e-commerce business -- and that unique strategy gave it an edge against many of its brick-and-mortar retail competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客專注於大宗採購、粘性的會員制度以及在美國和海外市場的持續實體店擴張，使其免受亞馬遜增長的影響，而其他實體零售商則逐漸退縮。亞馬遜還利用其雲業務的高利潤收入來補貼其低利潤的電子商務業務擴張——這一獨特策略使其在許多實體零售競爭對手中佔據了優勢。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU4MDgvc2hvcHBlci1wdXNoZXMtY2FydC1pbi1hLXdhcmVob3VzZS1zdG9yZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F795808%2Fshopper-pushes-cart-in-a-warehouse-store.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Over the past three years, Costco's stock soared 80%, as Amazon's stock only advanced 13%. Let's see why the wholesale retailer outperformed Amazon by such a wide margin -- and if it will remain the better buy for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去三年中，開市客的股票上漲了 80%，而亞馬遜的股票僅上漲了 13%。讓我們看看為什麼這家批發零售商的表現如此優於亞馬遜，以及它是否會在可預見的未來繼續成為更好的投資選擇。</p>
</div><h2>Why did the bulls love Costco?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼多頭看好開市客？</h2>
</div><p>Costco's long-term expansion has been mainly driven by its new store openings, steady comparable sales, growth in cardholders, and high renewal rates. It's consistently checked all four of those boxes from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2024 (which ended this September).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客的長期擴張主要得益於新店開業、穩定的可比銷售、持卡人增長和高續費率。從 2020 財年到 2024 財年（截至今年 9 月），它始終滿足這四個條件。</p>
</div><p>| Metric | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
| Total store count growth (YOY) | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| Comparable sales* growth (YOY) | 9.2% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% |
| Cardholder growth (YOY) | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7% |
| Worldwide renewal rate* | 88.4% | 88.7% | 90.4% | 90.4% | 90.5% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指標 | 2020 財年 | 2021 財年 | 2022 財年 | 2023 財年 | 2024 財年 |
| 總店鋪數量增長（同比）| 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| 可比銷售 * 增長（同比）| 9.2% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% |
| 持卡人增長（同比）| 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7% |
| 全球續費率 * | 88.4% | 88.7% | 90.4% | 90.4% | 90.5% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: Costco. *Excluding gas and foreign exchange. YOY = Year-over-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：開市客。* 不包括燃油和外匯。同比 = 年同比。</p>
</div><p>From fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2024, Costco's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% as its EPS rose at a CAGR of 16%. Its growth accelerated in fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022 as the pandemic drove more people to stock up on packaged foods and consumer staples, but it continued growing over the following two years, even as inflation curbed consumer spending. It also recently raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years to offset that pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2020 財年到 2024 財年，開市客的收入以 11% 的年複合增長率（CAGR）增長，EPS 以 16% 的 CAGR 增長。由於疫情促使更多人囤積包裝食品和日用消費品，其增長在 2021 財年和 2022 財年加速，但在接下來的兩年中仍繼續增長，即使通貨膨脹抑制了消費者支出。它還在七年來首次提高了會員費，以抵消這種壓力。</p>
</div><p>Costco's growth rates aren't jaw-dropping, but its resilience, scale, and stickiness make it a good safe-haven investment. From fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2027, analysts expect its revenue and EPS to rise at a CAGR of 7% and 10%, respectively. That outlook is stable, but its stock looks a bit pricey at 50 times this year's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客的增長率並不驚人，但其韌性、規模和粘性使其成為一個良好的避風港投資。從 2024 財年到 2027 財年，分析師預計其收入和 EPS 將分別以 7% 和 10% 的 CAGR 增長。這個前景是穩定的，但其股票在今年的收益基礎上看起來有點昂貴，市盈率為 50 倍。</p>
</div><h2>Why was the market less enthusiastic about Amazon?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼市場對亞馬遜的熱情較低？</h2>
</div><p>Amazon generates most of its revenue from its e-commerce marketplaces, but it reaps most of its profits from its Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud platform. Its e-commerce and cloud businesses both grew rapidly in 2020 and 2021 as the pandemic drove more consumers to shop online and more companies to upgrade their cloud infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜的大部分收入來自其電子商務市場，但其大部分利潤來自其亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）雲平台。由於疫情促使更多消費者在線購物，更多公司升級其雲基礎設施，其電子商務和雲業務在 2020 年和 2021 年都迅速增長。</p>
</div><p>| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 1H 2024 |
| North America sales growth (YOY) | 38% | 18% | 13% | 12% | 11% |
| International sales growth (YOY) | 40% | 22% | (8%) | 11% | 8% |
| AWS sales growth (YOY) | 30% | 37% | 29% | 13% | 18% |
| Total sales growth (YOY) | 38% | 22% | 9% | 12% | 11% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指標 | 2020 年 | 2021 年 | 2022 年 | 2023 年 | 2024 年上半年 |
| 北美銷售增長（同比）| 38% | 18% | 13% | 12% | 11% |
| 國際銷售增長（同比）| 40% | 22% | (8%) | 11% | 8% |
| AWS 銷售增長（同比）| 30% | 37% | 29% | 13% | 18% |
| 總銷售增長（同比）| 38% | 22% | 9% | 12% | 11% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：亞馬遜。</p>
</div><p>But in 2022, both of Amazon's growth engines sputtered out as the pandemic-induced tailwinds dissipated, inflation curbed consumer spending, and rising rates drove many companies to rein in their cloud expenses. It also turned unprofitable for the full year as its big investment in the struggling EV maker <strong>Rivian</strong> backfired.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在 2022 年，亞馬遜的兩個增長引擎都停滯不前，因為疫情帶來的順風消退，通貨膨脹抑制了消費者支出，利率上升使許多公司削減了雲支出。由於對掙扎中的電動車製造商 <strong>Rivian</strong> 的大量投資失利，亞馬遜全年也變得虧損。</p>
</div><p>Over the past one and a half years, Amazon's growth stabilized as the macro environment warmed up again. Its e-commerce business recovered as it prioritized faster deliveries, sold more everyday essentials, and expanded into more countries. AWS' growth accelerated again as more companies upgraded their cloud infrastructure to handle the soaring usage of new generative AI applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去一年半中，隨着宏觀環境再次回暖，亞馬遜的增長穩定下來。其電子商務業務恢復了增長，因為它優先考慮更快的交付，銷售更多日常必需品，並擴展到更多國家。隨着更多公司升級其雲基礎設施以應對新生成的 AI 應用的激增，AWS 的增長再次加速。</p>
</div><p>From 2023 to 2026, analysts expect Amazon's revenue and EPS to grow at a CAGR of 11% and 35%, respectively, as its near-term headwinds dissipate. Based on those expectations, its stock still looks reasonably valued relative to its growth at 33 times next year's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2023 年到 2026 年，分析師預計亞馬遜的收入和 EPS 將分別以 11% 和 35% 的 CAGR 增長，因為其短期逆風減弱。基於這些預期，其股票相對於其增長仍然看起來合理，市盈率為 33 倍。</p>
</div><h2>The better buy: Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更好的投資選擇：亞馬遜</h2>
</div><p>Costco had a great run, but its valuations have gotten ahead of its growth rates. Therefore, I believe that Amazon -- which was broadly underappreciated over the past three years -- could have more upside potential than Costco over the next three years as the macro environment finally improves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客的表現出色，但其估值已經超前於其增長率。因此，我認為在過去三年中被廣泛低估的亞馬遜，在未來三年中可能比開市客有更大的上行潛力，因為宏觀環境終於改善。</p>
</div>

Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Costco vs. Amazon

- Costco 和 Amazon 是全球最具韌性的零售商。  
- Costco 通過批量折扣和會員制吸引顧客，Amazon 則依靠雲服務和電商業務。  
- 分析師預計未來三年 Amazon 的收入和每股收益將增長，可能超越 Costco。

當前最值得購買的股票：開市客與亞馬遜