<p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -1.33%) 上週分享了很多信息。這家巨頭公司在週四表示，其截至 9 月 28 日的財年第四季度收入同比增長 6%，達到 949 億美元。調整後的每股收益增長了 12%。</p>
<p>首席執行官蒂姆·庫克在蘋果的季度電話會議上談到了許多新產品。他讚揚了 iPhone 16 系列、新款 Apple Watch、AirPods 的助聽器功能、Apple TV+ 的成功以及 Apple Intelligence 生成式 AI 的功能。</p>
<p>但庫克和他的高管團隊在某些話題上保持了謹慎。以下是蘋果不想談論的三件事。</p>
<h2>1. 短期 iPhone 銷售增長</h2>
<p>蘋果預計截至 2024 年 12 月的下一個季度收入將同比增長低至中個位數。公司預計服務收入將以與 2024 財年近 13% 的增長相似的速度增長。</p>
<p>首席財務官盧卡·梅斯特里在第四季度財報電話會議上被分析師問及 12 月季度的 iPhone 銷售情況時，他拒絕回答。</p>
<p>庫克被問及未來幾個季度對新 iPhone 的需求時，他回應道：“顯然，我們不會對當前季度之外的情況進行預測。我們就是不這樣做。”</p>
<p>他僅表示，公司相信 Apple Intelligence 是 “一個令人信服的升級理由。” 他還提到，iOS 18.1 的採用率在發佈的前三天是 iOS 17.1 的兩倍。庫克補充道：“所以，這顯然顯示出外界的興趣。”</p>
<p>蘋果過去曾提供更多關於下個季度預期 iPhone 銷售增長的細節。然而，我懷疑新生成式 AI 功能的分階段推出使得高信心預測 iPhone 銷售變得更加困難。</p>
<h2>2. 潛在關税的影響</h2>
<p><strong>美國銀行</strong> 分析師瓦姆西·莫漢詢問庫克，蘋果是否為選舉後可能出現的關税做好了準備。莫漢特別關注蘋果已經採取的任何措施，以保護自己免受潛在高關税的影響。</p>
<p>庫克沒有上鈎。他回答道：“你知道，我不想對這些事情進行猜測，所以我會對此保持沉默。” 我完全不怪他不想參與關税討論。然而，我認為莫漢的問題是個好問題。蘋果的業務可能會受到關税增加的影響。</p>
<p>公司在上週的年度 10-K 文件中承認了這一點。蘋果指出，幾乎所有的製造都在美國以外進行，特別是在中國、印度、日本、韓國、台灣和越南。</p>
<p>它補充説，針對國際貿易的關税或其他限制可能會產生特別大的影響，尤其是如果這些措施適用於其產生大量收入和/或擁有主要供應鏈運營的國家。</p>
<h2>3. 與谷歌的關係</h2>
<p>根據 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的估計，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌部門目前每年向蘋果支付約 200 億美元，以成為 Safari 瀏覽器的默認搜索引擎。但這一收入來源對蘋果來説可能面臨風險。</p>
<p>一名聯邦法官在 8 月裁定谷歌在搜索領域運營着非法壟斷。一個潛在的結果是，谷歌可能被迫取消與蘋果的協議。</p>
<p><strong>摩根大通</strong> 分析師薩米克·查特吉詢問庫克，谷歌的訴訟可能對其與蘋果的關係產生什麼影響。庫克回應道：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>你知道，我不想從法律角度對這件事進行猜測。這是一個正在進行的案件。我會把這個留到另一天。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>我認為這是庫克明智的迴避。然而，查特吉的問題無疑是許多投資者希望得到答案的問題。</p>
<p>在我看來，蘋果很可能會輕鬆找到另一個願意成為 Safari 默認搜索引擎的搜索引擎提供商。（我在看你，<strong>微軟</strong> Bing。）但蘋果是否能從谷歌那裏獲得摩根士丹利認為的每年 200 億美元的全部收入則是另一個故事。</p>
<h2>答案即將到來？</h2>
<p>這三個未解答的問題是否影響蘋果向投資者提供的價值主張？絕對會。然而，我目前對此並不太擔心。</p>
<p>我認為 iPhone 銷售將在未來幾個季度顯著增長，這主要得益於消費者對 Apple Intelligence 的升級需求。我懷疑蘋果已經考慮瞭如何防止潛在關税對其業務造成過大影響。而且如果公司沒有制定應對與谷歌潛在解除協議的計劃，我會感到震驚。</p>
<p>蘋果現在不想談論這些事情。但它遲早必須談論其中至少一件事（iPhone 銷售）。</p>

蘋果

<p>蘋果在第四季度報告了 6% 的收入增長，達到 895 億美元，調整後的每股收益增長了 12%。首席執行官蒂姆·庫克強調了新產品，但避免討論近期 iPhone 銷售增長、潛在關税影響以及與谷歌的關係。分析師對 iPhone 銷售預測和關税對蘋果供應鏈的影響表示擔憂，以及失去與谷歌搜索引擎協議帶來的收入風險。儘管存在這些不確定性，作者對未來 iPhone 銷售持樂觀態度，認為新功能和蘋果的戰略規劃將推動銷售增長</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -1.33%) shared a lot of information last week. The huge company said on Thursday that its revenue rose 6% year over year to $94.9 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter, ending Sept. 28. Its adjusted earnings per share jumped 12%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -1.33%) 上週分享了很多信息。這家巨頭公司在週四表示，其截至 9 月 28 日的財年第四季度收入同比增長 6%，達到 949 億美元。調整後的每股收益增長了 12%。</p>
</div><p>CEO Tim Cook talked a lot in Apple's quarterly conference call about new products. He sang the praises of the iPhone 16 lineup, the new Apple Watch, AirPods' hearing aid capabilities, the successes of Apple TV+, and Apple Intelligence generative AI functionality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席執行官蒂姆·庫克在蘋果的季度電話會議上談到了許多新產品。他讚揚了 iPhone 16 系列、新款 Apple Watch、AirPods 的助聽器功能、Apple TV+ 的成功以及 Apple Intelligence 生成式 AI 的功能。</p>
</div><p>But Cook and his executive team played it close to the vest on some topics. Here are three things Apple doesn't want to talk about.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但庫克和他的高管團隊在某些話題上保持了謹慎。以下是蘋果不想談論的三件事。</p>
</div><h2>1. Near-term iPhone sales growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 短期 iPhone 銷售增長</h2>
</div><p>Apple expects its revenue in the next quarter ending in December 2024 to increase by low- to mid-single digits year over year. The company looks for services revenue to grow at a similar rate as the nearly 13% growth in fiscal year 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果預計截至 2024 年 12 月的下一個季度收入將同比增長低至中個位數。公司預計服務收入將以與 2024 財年近 13% 的增長相似的速度增長。</p>
</div><p>Chief financial officer Luca Maestri was asked by analysts a couple of times in the fourth-quarter earnings call about iPhone sales in the December quarter. He refused to answer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席財務官盧卡·梅斯特里在第四季度財報電話會議上被分析師問及 12 月季度的 iPhone 銷售情況時，他拒絕回答。</p>
</div><p>Cook was asked about the demand for new iPhones in the coming quarters. He responded: &#34;We're not projecting beyond the current quarter obviously. We just don't do that.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>庫克被問及未來幾個季度對新 iPhone 的需求時，他回應道：“顯然，我們不會對當前季度之外的情況進行預測。我們就是不這樣做。”</p>
</div><p>He would only go as far as to say that the company believes Apple Intelligence is &#34;a compelling upgrade reason.&#34; He also said that the adoption rate of iOS 18.1 was twice as much as that of iOS 17.1 during the first three days of its launch. Cook added, &#34;So, that clearly shows a level of interest out there.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他僅表示，公司相信 Apple Intelligence 是 “一個令人信服的升級理由。” 他還提到，iOS 18.1 的採用率在發佈的前三天是 iOS 17.1 的兩倍。庫克補充道：“所以，這顯然顯示出外界的興趣。”</p>
</div><p>Apple has provided more color in the past about anticipated iPhone sales growth for the next quarter. However, I suspect the phased introduction of new generative AI features makes it more difficult to project iPhone sales with a high degree of confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果過去曾提供更多關於下個季度預期 iPhone 銷售增長的細節。然而，我懷疑新生成式 AI 功能的分階段推出使得高信心預測 iPhone 銷售變得更加困難。</p>
</div><h2>2. The impact of potential tariffs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 潛在關税的影響</h2>
</div><p><strong>Bank of America</strong> analyst Wamsi Mohan asked Cook if Apple is prepared for potential tariffs that could be on the way following the elections. Mohan was especially interested in any steps it has already taken to insulate itself from the potential impact of higher tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美國銀行</strong> 分析師瓦姆西·莫漢詢問庫克，蘋果是否為選舉後可能出現的關税做好了準備。莫漢特別關注蘋果已經採取的任何措施，以保護自己免受潛在高關税的影響。</p>
</div><p>Cook didn't take the bait. He replied, &#34;You know, I wouldn't want to speculate about those sorts of things, and so I'm going to punt on that one.&#34; I don't blame him at all for not wanting to wade into the tariff discussion. However, I think Mohan's question was a good one. Apple's business could be hurt by increased tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>庫克沒有上鈎。他回答道：“你知道，我不想對這些事情進行猜測，所以我會對此保持沉默。” 我完全不怪他不想參與關税討論。然而，我認為莫漢的問題是個好問題。蘋果的業務可能會受到關税增加的影響。</p>
</div><p>The company acknowledged as such in its annual 10-K filing last week. Apple noted that nearly all of its manufacturing is done outside the U.S., particularly in China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司在上週的年度 10-K 文件中承認了這一點。蘋果指出，幾乎所有的製造都在美國以外進行，特別是在中國、印度、日本、韓國、台灣和越南。</p>
</div><p>It added that tariffs or other restrictions on international trade could have an especially big effect if they were applied to countries where it generates a significant amount of revenue and/or has major supply chain operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它補充説，針對國際貿易的關税或其他限制可能會產生特別大的影響，尤其是如果這些措施適用於其產生大量收入和/或擁有主要供應鏈運營的國家。</p>
</div><h2>3. The relationship with Google</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 與谷歌的關係</h2>
</div><p><strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google unit currently forks over around $20 billion per year to Apple to be the default search engine in the Safari browser, according to <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong>'s estimates. But this revenue source for Apple could be in jeopardy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的估計，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌部門目前每年向蘋果支付約 200 億美元，以成為 Safari 瀏覽器的默認搜索引擎。但這一收入來源對蘋果來説可能面臨風險。</p>
</div><p>A federal judge ruled in August that Google is operating an illegal monopoly in search. One potential outcome is that it could be forced to cancel its agreement with Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一名聯邦法官在 8 月裁定谷歌在搜索領域運營着非法壟斷。一個潛在的結果是，谷歌可能被迫取消與蘋果的協議。</p>
</div><p><strong>J.P. Morgan</strong> analyst Samik Chatterjee asked Cook about what impact Google's lawsuit could have on its relationship with Apple. Cook responded:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摩根大通</strong> 分析師薩米克·查特吉詢問庫克，谷歌的訴訟可能對其與蘋果的關係產生什麼影響。庫克回應道：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>You know, I don't want to speculate on that from a legal point of view. It's an ongoing case. And I will save that for another day.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>你知道，我不想從法律角度對這件事進行猜測。這是一個正在進行的案件。我會把這個留到另一天。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Again, I think this was a wise deflection by Cook. However, Chatterjee's question is certainly one many investors would love to have answered.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為這是庫克明智的迴避。然而，查特吉的問題無疑是許多投資者希望得到答案的問題。</p>
</div><p>It's possible -- and probable, in my opinion -- that Apple could easily find another search engine provider that would love to be the default in Safari. (I'm looking at you, <strong>Microsoft</strong> Bing.) But whether or not Apple could get the full $20 billion annually that Morgan Stanley believes it's getting now from Google is another story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，蘋果很可能會輕鬆找到另一個願意成為 Safari 默認搜索引擎的搜索引擎提供商。（我在看你，<strong>微軟</strong> Bing。）但蘋果是否能從谷歌那裏獲得摩根士丹利認為的每年 200 億美元的全部收入則是另一個故事。</p>
</div><h2>Answers on the way?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>答案即將到來？</h2>
</div><p>Do these three unanswered questions affect the value proposition that Apple offers to investors? Absolutely. However, I'm not overly concerned with them at this point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這三個未解答的問題是否影響蘋果向投資者提供的價值主張？絕對會。然而，我目前對此並不太擔心。</p>
</div><p>I think iPhone sales will increase significantly in the coming quarters thanks largely to upgrades spurred by consumers wanting Apple Intelligence. I suspect Apple has already looked at what it will do to prevent potential tariffs from hurting its business too much. And I'd be shocked if the company isn't game-planning how to deal with a potential severance of its deal with Google.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為 iPhone 銷售將在未來幾個季度顯著增長，這主要得益於消費者對 Apple Intelligence 的升級需求。我懷疑蘋果已經考慮瞭如何防止潛在關税對其業務造成過大影響。而且如果公司沒有制定應對與谷歌潛在解除協議的計劃，我會感到震驚。</p>
</div><p>Apple doesn't want to talk about these things right now. But it will have to do so with at least one of them (iPhone sales) sooner or later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果現在不想談論這些事情。但它遲早必須談論其中至少一件事（iPhone 銷售）。</p>
</div>

3 Things Apple Doesn't Want to Talk About

- 蘋果公司第四季度營收同比增長 6%，達  9 億美元，調整後每股收益增長 12%。  
- CEO 庫克未透露 iPhone 銷售增長、潛在關税影響及與谷歌的關係。  
- 這些未解答的問題可能影響投資者對蘋果的價值評估。  

蘋果不願意談論的三件事