<p>就在一年前，<strong>Coinbase Global</strong>(COIN 2.02%) 的股價約為每股 75 美元。快進到今天，它經歷了大幅上漲，攀升至大約 210 美元。</p>
<p>對於過去兩年與我一起投資 Coinbase 的人來説，你們已經享受到了顯著的收益。但有理由相信，Coinbase 在未來一年可能會進一步上漲，因為它正在為利用新興收入來源和潛在的加密貨幣牛市做好準備。讓我們來探討一下原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU5NDMvcGVlcmluZy1hdC1zY3JlZW4tb3Zlci1nbGFzc2VzLTE1NTE3NDg1NDAuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU5NDMvcGVlcmluZy1hdC1zY3JlZW4tb3Zlci1nbGFzc2VzLTE1NTE3NDg1NDAuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>除交易費用外的收入來源多樣化</h2>
<p>如果你一直關注我的報道（或者説，任何關於 Coinbase 的分析），你會知道該公司在過去幾年中在多樣化收入模式方面取得了重大進展，這是其令人印象深刻的股票表現背後的主要因素。</p>
<p>傳統上，Coinbase 通過交易費用產生大部分收入，這一模式高度依賴交易量，並且容易受到市場波動的影響。意識到穩定性的重要性，Coinbase 開始建立額外的收入來源，尤其是穩定幣收入，現在已成為其第二大盈利板塊。</p>
<p>Coinbase 的穩定幣業務在過去兩年中蓬勃發展，得益於與 <strong>USD Coin</strong> 發行方 Circle 的合作。隨着利率上升，Coinbase 利用 USDC 買家的資金投資於國債，這在加息期間帶來了更好的回報。</p>
<p>這一策略取得了成效，穩定幣收入在 2024 年第三季度達到了創紀錄的 2.5 億美元。然而，隨着美聯儲在未來一年進行降息，這一收入來源可能會受到影響。</p>
<p>但這正是 Coinbase 多樣化收入模式開始顯現光芒的地方。雖然利率的降低可能會抑制穩定幣產生的收入，但它可能同時會引發新的加密貨幣牛市。</p>
<p>隨着利率下降，借貸成本降低，經濟中的流動性往往會增加。歷史上，低利率環境會鼓勵風險偏好，這通常會導致更多資金流入像加密貨幣這樣的高風險資產（正如 2021 年牛市時的情況，當時利率幾乎為 0%）。</p>
<p>隨着市場預計到 2025 年中期利率將達到峯值，Coinbase 的其他收入來源（如交易費用、區塊鏈獎勵和保管服務）與加密貨幣價格和市場活動密切相關，可能在明年開始顯著增長。</p>
<h2>Coinbase 可能會漲到多高？</h2>
<p>有一個指標可以幫助我們評估 Coinbase 在 2025 年的潛力：交易量。交易量是一個關鍵指標，幫助我們衡量加密週期的階段，可以視為投資者興趣的代理，並且通常隨着市場週期的波動而變化。</p>
<p>在上一個牛市的巔峯期，Coinbase 在 2021 年第四季度處理了近 5500 億美元的交易量。如今，隨着加密市場的復甦，但仍遠未達到上一個週期的高點，Coinbase 的交易量約為 2260 億美元。這不僅表明了增長的空間，也表明如果再次出現牛市，可能會超過之前的記錄，因為加密資產在這些週期中往往會突破舊高。</p>
<p>這一潛在的市場波動對 Coinbase 具有重大影響。在上一個牛市的高峰期，Coinbase 超過 90% 的收入來自交易費用。相比之下，目前交易費用僅佔其收入的 47%，反映了 Coinbase 在其他收入來源方面的成功擴展。這意味着，隨着交易量的上升，Coinbase 有更多的方式來貨幣化其平台，相較於之前的週期，增強了其收入潛力。</p>
<p>隨着下一個加密牛市的逐步形成，Coinbase 不僅能從增加的交易費用中受益，還能從區塊鏈獎勵、保管費用以及其他訂閲和服務中獲益，這些都與加密價格高度相關。</p>
<p>雖然這只是推測，但一些粗略的 “草稿紙” 計算顯示，如果交易量接近或超過上一個牛市的 5500 億美元峯值，Coinbase 的多樣化收入來源可能會產生創紀錄的收入和利潤。這不僅會使 Coinbase 回到歷史高點，還可能使其創造新的記錄。</p>
<p>那麼，Coinbase 在一年後可能會處於何種狀態？如果加密牛市確實伴隨着因利率降低而增加的流動性而啓動，Coinbase 可能會看到顯著的提升。隨着其多樣化努力的成果顯現和交易量的上升，Coinbase 不僅重新測試其之前的高點，甚至可能創造新的高點，這並不令人驚訝。</p>

COIN

<p>Coinbase Global 在過去一年中經歷了顯著的股票增長，這得益於其努力將收入來源多樣化，超越交易費用。該公司成功拓展了穩定幣收入，這一領域因合作伙伴關係和更高的利率而蓬勃發展。隨着美聯儲可能降息，這可能會引發新的加密貨幣牛市，從而使 Coinbase 的其他收入來源受益。隨着交易量可能上升，Coinbase 在超越之前的收入記錄方面處於良好位置，這為明年的前景提供了樂觀的展望</p>

<p>Just a year ago, <strong>Coinbase Global</strong>(COIN 2.02%) was trading around $75 per share. Fast-forward to today, and it has seen a major surge, climbing to roughly $210.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在一年前，<strong>Coinbase Global</strong>(COIN 2.02%) 的股價約為每股 75 美元。快進到今天，它經歷了大幅上漲，攀升至大約 210 美元。</p>
</div><p>For those who joined me in investing in Coinbase over the last two years, you're already enjoying significant gains. But there's reason to believe that Coinbase might climb even higher over the next year, as it positions itself to capitalize on both emerging revenue streams and a potential bull market in the cryptocurrency space. Let's explore why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於過去兩年與我一起投資 Coinbase 的人來説，你們已經享受到了顯著的收益。但有理由相信，Coinbase 在未來一年可能會進一步上漲，因為它正在為利用新興收入來源和潛在的加密貨幣牛市做好準備。讓我們來探討一下原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTU5NDMvcGVlcmluZy1hdC1zY3JlZW4tb3Zlci1nbGFzc2VzLTE1NTE3NDg1NDAuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F795943%2Fpeering-at-screen-over-glasses-1551748540.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Diversifying revenue streams beyond transaction fees</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>除交易費用外的收入來源多樣化</h2>
</div><p>If you've been following my coverage (or really, any analysis of Coinbase), you'll know that the company has made substantial strides in diversifying its revenue model over the past few years, a major factor behind its impressive stock performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你一直關注我的報道（或者説，任何關於 Coinbase 的分析），你會知道該公司在過去幾年中在多樣化收入模式方面取得了重大進展，這是其令人印象深刻的股票表現背後的主要因素。</p>
</div><p>Traditionally, Coinbase generated the bulk of its income through transaction fees, a model highly reliant on trading volume and vulnerable to market swings. Recognizing the need for stability, Coinbase began to build additional revenue sources, notably stablecoin revenue, which is now its second-most lucrative segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傳統上，Coinbase 通過交易費用產生大部分收入，這一模式高度依賴交易量，並且容易受到市場波動的影響。意識到穩定性的重要性，Coinbase 開始建立額外的收入來源，尤其是穩定幣收入，現在已成為其第二大盈利板塊。</p>
</div><p>Coinbase's stablecoin business has thrived over the past two years, benefiting from its partnership with Circle, the issuer of <strong>USD Coin</strong>. With higher interest rates, Coinbase has leveraged funds from USDC buyers to invest in Treasury bills, which yield better returns during rate hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coinbase 的穩定幣業務在過去兩年中蓬勃發展，得益於與 <strong>USD Coin</strong> 發行方 Circle 的合作。隨着利率上升，Coinbase 利用 USDC 買家的資金投資於國債，這在加息期間帶來了更好的回報。</p>
</div><p>This strategy paid off, with stablecoin revenue hitting a record $250 million in Q3 2024. However, this stream may take a hit as the Federal Reserve performs a rate-cutting cycle over the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一策略取得了成效，穩定幣收入在 2024 年第三季度達到了創紀錄的 2.5 億美元。然而，隨着美聯儲在未來一年進行降息，這一收入來源可能會受到影響。</p>
</div><p>But this is where Coinbase's diversified revenue model will begin to shine. While a reduction in rates might dampen the income generated from stablecoins, it could simultaneously spark a new crypto bull market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這正是 Coinbase 多樣化收入模式開始顯現光芒的地方。雖然利率的降低可能會抑制穩定幣產生的收入，但它可能同時會引發新的加密貨幣牛市。</p>
</div><p>As rates fall, the cost of borrowing decreases, and liquidity in the economy tends to increase. Historically, a low-interest rate environment encourages risk appetite, which often leads to more capital flowing into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies (as seen in the bull market of 2021, when rates were at nearly 0%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着利率下降，借貸成本降低，經濟中的流動性往往會增加。歷史上，低利率環境會鼓勵風險偏好，這通常會導致更多資金流入像加密貨幣這樣的高風險資產（正如 2021 年牛市時的情況，當時利率幾乎為 0%）。</p>
</div><p>With the market projecting rate cuts to reach their peak by mid-2025, Coinbase's other revenue streams (such as transaction fees, blockchain rewards, and custodial services), which correlate closely with cryptocurrency prices and market activity, may begin to see significant growth in the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着市場預計到 2025 年中期利率將達到峯值，Coinbase 的其他收入來源（如交易費用、區塊鏈獎勵和保管服務）與加密貨幣價格和市場活動密切相關，可能在明年開始顯著增長。</p>
</div><h2>How high could Coinbase go?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Coinbase 可能會漲到多高？</h2>
</div><p>There's one metric that can help us assess Coinbase's potential in 2025: exchange volume. A key measure that helps us gauge the stage of the crypto cycle, exchange volume can be viewed as a proxy for investor interest, and it tends to rise and fall with market cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有一個指標可以幫助我們評估 Coinbase 在 2025 年的潛力：交易量。交易量是一個關鍵指標，幫助我們衡量加密週期的階段，可以視為投資者興趣的代理，並且通常隨着市場週期的波動而變化。</p>
</div><p>At the peak of the last bull market, Coinbase processed nearly $550 billion of trading volume in Q4 2021. Today, with the crypto market recovering but still far from the highs of the last cycle, Coinbase's volume sits at around $226 billion. This suggests not only room for growth, but also the potential to exceed previous records if another bull market takes shape, as crypto assets often break past old highs in these cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上一個牛市的巔峯期，Coinbase 在 2021 年第四季度處理了近 5500 億美元的交易量。如今，隨着加密市場的復甦，但仍遠未達到上一個週期的高點，Coinbase 的交易量約為 2260 億美元。這不僅表明了增長的空間，也表明如果再次出現牛市，可能會超過之前的記錄，因為加密資產在這些週期中往往會突破舊高。</p>
</div><p>This potential market swing holds major implications for Coinbase. During the height of the previous bull run, over 90% of Coinbase's revenue came from transaction fees. In contrast, transaction fees now account for just 47% of its revenue, reflecting Coinbase's successful expansion into other revenue streams. This means that, as volume rises, Coinbase has more ways to monetize its platform than it did in previous cycles, amplifying its revenue potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一潛在的市場波動對 Coinbase 具有重大影響。在上一個牛市的高峰期，Coinbase 超過 90% 的收入來自交易費用。相比之下，目前交易費用僅佔其收入的 47%，反映了 Coinbase 在其他收入來源方面的成功擴展。這意味着，隨着交易量的上升，Coinbase 有更多的方式來貨幣化其平台，相較於之前的週期，增強了其收入潛力。</p>
</div><p>As the next crypto bull market gains traction, Coinbase is positioned to benefit not only from increased transaction fees, but also from other revenue sources like blockchain rewards, custodial fees, and other subscriptions and services, which are highly correlated to crypto prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着下一個加密牛市的逐步形成，Coinbase 不僅能從增加的交易費用中受益，還能從區塊鏈獎勵、保管費用以及其他訂閲和服務中獲益，這些都與加密價格高度相關。</p>
</div><p>Although it's speculative, some rough &#34;back-of-the-napkin&#34; math shows that if exchange volume is approaching or surpassing the $550 billion peak of the last bull market, Coinbase's diversified revenue streams could produce record revenue and profits. This would not only bring Coinbase back to its all-time highs, but could also set it up to break new records.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這只是推測，但一些粗略的 “草稿紙” 計算顯示，如果交易量接近或超過上一個牛市的 5500 億美元峯值，Coinbase 的多樣化收入來源可能會產生創紀錄的收入和利潤。這不僅會使 Coinbase 回到歷史高點，還可能使其創造新的記錄。</p>
</div><p>So, where might Coinbase be in a year? If a crypto bull market indeed takes off alongside increasing liquidity from lower interest rates, Coinbase could see a substantial boost. With its diversification efforts paying off and exchange volume set to rise, it wouldn't be surprising to see Coinbase not only retesting its previous highs but potentially setting new ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，Coinbase 在一年後可能會處於何種狀態？如果加密牛市確實伴隨着因利率降低而增加的流動性而啓動，Coinbase 可能會看到顯著的提升。隨着其多樣化努力的成果顯現和交易量的上升，Coinbase 不僅重新測試其之前的高點，甚至可能創造新的高點，這並不令人驚訝。</p>
</div>

Where Will Coinbase Be in a Year?

- Coinbase 通過多元化收入模式實現顯著增長，穩定幣收入創下新高。  
- 隨着利率下降，可能刺激加密貨幣牛市，推動交易量上升。  
- Coinbase 有望在未來一年內實現創紀錄的收入和利潤。  

Coinbase 一年後會處於什麼位置？