<p><strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT -0.47%) 週四下跌了 6.1%，這是自 2022 年 10 月 26 日以來的最糟糕表現，當時這家科技巨頭下滑了 7.7%。即使在週五上漲了 1% 後，微軟今年迄今的漲幅仍不足 8%，遠遠落後於 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數 20.1% 的年初至今漲幅。</p>
<p>以下是為什麼微軟的出色業績未能令投資者印象深刻，但這隻成長股仍可能值得購買的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTYzMzcvZ2V0dHktZGVidC13b3JyeS13b3JyaWVkLWNvbmNlcm4tMTIwMHg3MzItODFlYjYzZC0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTYzMzcvZ2V0dHktZGVidC13b3JyeS13b3JyaWVkLWNvbmNlcm4tMTIwMHg3MzItODFlYjYzZC0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>業績大爆發</h2>
<p>與上一個財年同期相比，微軟的收入增長了 16%，營業收入增長了 14%，稀釋每股收益 (EPS) 增長了 10%。該公司在三個部門下報告其業績：生產力與業務流程、智能雲和更多個人計算。</p>
<p>智能雲包括 Azure 和其他雲服務、服務器產品、GitHub 雲等。但微軟有時會討論更廣泛的微軟雲，這包括智能雲部門加上其他雲服務，如微軟 365 雲——這在技術上屬於生產力與業務流程。</p>
<p>本季度微軟雲的收入為 389 億美元，同比增長 22%，毛利率為 71%——這意味着高毛利的雲收入現在佔總收入的 59%。更令人震驚的是，微軟雲本季度的收入超過了四年前同季度整個業務的收入。</p>
<p>微軟雲產品和服務的增長是公司近年來快速增長其收入和利潤的核心原因。</p>
<p>它還受益於收購。收購動視暴雪使 Xbox 內容和服務的收入增長了 61%。如果不考慮收購，這一項的增長僅為 8%。</p>
<p>並不是所有業務功能都在全力運轉。例如，Windows 產品和設備僅增長了 2%。</p>
<p>但總體而言，微軟的業績非常出色。相反，其對人工智能 (AI) 的指導和支出習慣讓投資者感到不安。</p>
<h2>大量投入人工智能</h2>
<p>本季度，智能雲收入增長了 20%，而 Azure 和其他雲服務——微軟雲中增長最快的部分——增長了 33%。但對於下個季度，微軟預計智能雲收入將在固定匯率下增長 18% 至 20%，Azure 增長 31% 至 32%——這代表着增長的輕微放緩。</p>
<p>通常情況下，增長放緩一兩個百分點並不算大事，特別是考慮到微軟近年來的驚人增長。但該公司在人工智能上的支出非常龐大。目前，這些投資似乎對短期增長數據的貢獻不足。</p>
<p>在財報電話會議上，管理層表示，它是首個推出 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 的 Blackwell 系統的雲服務，配備 GB200 驅動的 AI 服務器。微軟在人工智能投資方面保持領先地位，並擁有足夠的現金流來支付頂級產品的高價。</p>
<p>但隨着其人工智能支出的增加，投資者對公司將這些支出轉化為業績的壓力也會加大。</p>
<p>本季度，包括融資租賃在內的資本支出 (capex) 為 200 億美元。這意味着每收入 1 美元中幾乎有 30 美分被投入到資本支出中。</p>
<p>首席財務官艾米·胡德在財報電話會議上表示：“我們大約一半的雲和與 AI 相關的支出仍然用於長期資產，這將支持未來 15 年及更長時間的貨幣化。其餘的雲和 AI 支出主要用於服務器，包括 CPU 和 GPU，以根據需求信號為客户提供服務。”</p>
<p>在電話會議的後期，胡德表示：“我們預計資本支出將根據我們的雲和 AI 需求信號在季度間增加。正如我上個季度所説，我們將保持一致，如果需要，將根據我們看到的需求信號進行調整。”</p>
<p>換句話説，微軟表示投資者不應期待其部分資本支出會立即見效，而是這些投資將為未來的增長奠定基礎。並且它表示可能會繼續加大資本支出。</p>
<h2>微軟正在進行正確的長期佈局</h2>
<p>關注短期問題的投資者可能會批評微軟對人工智能過於興奮，盲目投入資金於項目。在某些方面也許確實如此。但該公司有資源進行這些佈局。因此，過度支出總比不足支出、落後於競爭對手要好。</p>
<p>該公司擁有無可挑剔的資產負債表，現金、現金等價物和可交易證券的總額超過債務。它有一個龐大的資本回報計劃，包括股息和股票回購。在截至 6 月 30 日的 2024 財年中，它償還了 290.7 億美元的債務，支付了 217.7 億美元的股息，以及 172.5 億美元的股票回購。</p>
<p>如果管理層在犧牲資本回報計劃或財務健康的情況下大幅增加資本支出，那將是一個紅旗，但事實並非如此。該公司能夠積極投資於人工智能，併為成為企業軟件和雲基礎設施的人工智能領導者奠定基礎。</p>
<p>另外，它也可以將多餘的現金用於併購 (M&amp;A)，而不是有機增長。然而，考慮到許多人工智能投資基本上是對現有工具的產品升級，該公司應該自行創新。</p>
<p>事實上，當一家公司，尤其是科技公司，過於依賴併購時，可能會成為一個紅旗。這可能表明該公司無法獨立增長，可能是由於管理不善、缺乏人才，或產品和服務組合在市場上失去競爭力。</p>
<h2>微軟仍然是耐心投資者的全面買入選擇</h2>
<p>微軟的拋售為那些認同其資本配置策略的投資者提供了買入機會。此外，管理層已經明確表示，計劃繼續在人工智能上進行大規模投資，這可能會影響其短期增長率。因此，認為應該減少支出的投資者可能會選擇賣出該股票。而希望看到人工智能變現帶來更具體成果的人可能會選擇觀望。</p>
<p>以僅 33.9 的市盈率來看，該股票作為獲取人工智能、雲計算、硬件、遊戲等多元化投資的合理價格選擇，顯得尤為突出。即使支出增加，微軟的收入和每股收益仍在以兩位數的增長率增長。總體而言，它仍然是藍籌成長股的完整組合。</p>

微軟

<p>微軟的股票下跌了 6.1%，創下自 2022 年 10 月以來的最差表現，儘管其財報顯示收入增長了 16%。公司的雲收入激增了 22%，但對人工智能支出和未來增長預期的擔憂導致投資者感到不安。微軟在人工智能方面進行了大量投資，資本支出接近收入的 30%。雖然一些投資者可能擔心短期業績，但微軟強勁的資產負債表和長期戰略表明，它正為未來的增長做好良好佈局</p>

<p><strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.47%) fell 6.1% on Thursday, its worst session since Oct. 26, 2022, when the tech giant slipped 7.7%. Even after gaining 1% on Friday, Microsoft is up less than 8% year to date (YTD), heavily underperforming the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s 20.1% YTD gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT -0.47%) 週四下跌了 6.1%，這是自 2022 年 10 月 26 日以來的最糟糕表現，當時這家科技巨頭下滑了 7.7%。即使在週五上漲了 1% 後，微軟今年迄今的漲幅仍不足 8%，遠遠落後於 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數 20.1% 的年初至今漲幅。</p>
</div><p>Here's why Microsoft's stellar results weren't enough to impress investors but why the growth stock could still be worth buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是為什麼微軟的出色業績未能令投資者印象深刻，但這隻成長股仍可能值得購買的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTYzMzcvZ2V0dHktZGVidC13b3JyeS13b3JyaWVkLWNvbmNlcm4tMTIwMHg3MzItODFlYjYzZC0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796337%2Fgetty-debt-worry-worried-concern-1200x732-81eb63d-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A blowout quarter</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>業績大爆發</h2>
</div><p>Compared to same period last fiscal year, Microsoft grew revenue by 16%, operating income by 14%, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) by 10%. The company reports its results under three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與上一個財年同期相比，微軟的收入增長了 16%，營業收入增長了 14%，稀釋每股收益 (EPS) 增長了 10%。該公司在三個部門下報告其業績：生產力與業務流程、智能雲和更多個人計算。</p>
</div><p>Intelligent Cloud includes Azure and other cloud services, server products, GitHub cloud, and more. But Microsoft sometimes discusses the broader Microsoft Cloud, which is the Intelligent Cloud segment plus other cloud services like Microsoft 365 cloud -- which is technically under Productivity and Business Processes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>智能雲包括 Azure 和其他雲服務、服務器產品、GitHub 雲等。但微軟有時會討論更廣泛的微軟雲，這包括智能雲部門加上其他雲服務，如微軟 365 雲——這在技術上屬於生產力與業務流程。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft Cloud revenue for the quarter was $38.9 billion, up 22%, with a gross margin of 71% -- meaning that high-margin cloud revenue now makes up 59% of total revenue. Or even more staggering, Microsoft Cloud alone earned more revenue this quarter than the entire business earned in the same quarter just four years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本季度微軟雲的收入為 389 億美元，同比增長 22%，毛利率為 71%——這意味着高毛利的雲收入現在佔總收入的 59%。更令人震驚的是，微軟雲本季度的收入超過了四年前同季度整個業務的收入。</p>
</div><p>The growth across Microsoft's cloud products and services has been a core reason the company has grown its top and bottom lines rapidly in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟雲產品和服務的增長是公司近年來快速增長其收入和利潤的核心原因。</p>
</div><p>It has also benefited from acquisitions. The purchase of Activision Blizzard boosted Xbox content and services revenue by 61%. Take out the acquisition, and that line item would have been up just 8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它還受益於收購。收購動視暴雪使 Xbox 內容和服務的收入增長了 61%。如果不考慮收購，這一項的增長僅為 8%。</p>
</div><p>Not every business function is firing on all cylinders. For example, Windows products and devices grew just 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>並不是所有業務功能都在全力運轉。例如，Windows 產品和設備僅增長了 2%。</p>
</div><p>But overall, Microsoft's results were excellent. Rather, its guidance and spending habits on artificial intelligence (AI) are what spooked investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但總體而言，微軟的業績非常出色。相反，其對人工智能 (AI) 的指導和支出習慣讓投資者感到不安。</p>
</div><h2>Pouring money into AI</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大量投入人工智能</h2>
</div><p>For the quarter, Intelligent Cloud revenue grew 20%, and Azure and other cloud services -- the fastest growing part of Microsoft Cloud -- grew 33%. But for next quarter, Microsoft expects Intelligent Cloud revenue to grow 18% to 20% in constant currency and Azure to grow 31% to 32% -- which represents a slight deceleration in growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本季度，智能雲收入增長了 20%，而 Azure 和其他雲服務——微軟雲中增長最快的部分——增長了 33%。但對於下個季度，微軟預計智能雲收入將在固定匯率下增長 18% 至 20%，Azure 增長 31% 至 32%——這代表着增長的輕微放緩。</p>
</div><p>Normally, a slowdown of a percentage point or two wouldn't be a big deal, especially given Microsoft's incredible surge in recent years. But the company has been spending a ton of money on AI. For now, it seems those investments are not contributing enough to near-term growth figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常情況下，增長放緩一兩個百分點並不算大事，特別是考慮到微軟近年來的驚人增長。但該公司在人工智能上的支出非常龐大。目前，這些投資似乎對短期增長數據的貢獻不足。</p>
</div><p>During the earnings call, management said that it has the first cloud to debut <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s Blackwell system with GB200-powered AI servers. Microsoft remains on the cutting edge of AI investment and has the cash flow to pull off paying top dollar for the best of the best.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在財報電話會議上，管理層表示，它是首個推出 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 的 Blackwell 系統的雲服務，配備 GB200 驅動的 AI 服務器。微軟在人工智能投資方面保持領先地位，並擁有足夠的現金流來支付頂級產品的高價。</p>
</div><p>But the more it ramps up AI spending, the more pressure investors will put on the company to translate that spending into results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但隨着其人工智能支出的增加，投資者對公司將這些支出轉化為業績的壓力也會加大。</p>
</div><p>For the quarter, capital expenditures (capex), including finance leases, were $20 billion. Meaning that nearly 30 cents for every dollar in revenue is getting poured into capex.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本季度，包括融資租賃在內的資本支出 (capex) 為 200 億美元。這意味着每收入 1 美元中幾乎有 30 美分被投入到資本支出中。</p>
</div><p>Chief financial officer Amy Hood said on the earnings call: &#34;Roughly half of our cloud and AI-related spend continues to be for long-lived assets that will support monetization over the next 15 years and beyond. The remaining cloud and AI spend is primarily for servers, both CPUs and GPUs, to serve customers based on demand signals.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席財務官艾米·胡德在財報電話會議上表示：“我們大約一半的雲和與 AI 相關的支出仍然用於長期資產，這將支持未來 15 年及更長時間的貨幣化。其餘的雲和 AI 支出主要用於服務器，包括 CPU 和 GPU，以根據需求信號為客户提供服務。”</p>
</div><p>Later in the call, Hood said: &#34;We expect capital expenditures to increase on a sequential basis given our cloud and AI demand signals. As I said last quarter, we will stay aligned, and if needed, adjust to the demand signals we see.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在電話會議的後期，胡德表示：“我們預計資本支出將根據我們的雲和 AI 需求信號在季度間增加。正如我上個季度所説，我們將保持一致，如果需要，將根據我們看到的需求信號進行調整。”</p>
</div><p>In other words, Microsoft is saying that investors shouldn't expect some of its capex to immediately pay off, but rather that these investments will set the stage for future growth. And it is saying it could continue accelerating its capital spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，微軟表示投資者不應期待其部分資本支出會立即見效，而是這些投資將為未來的增長奠定基礎。並且它表示可能會繼續加大資本支出。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft is making the right long-term moves</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微軟正在進行正確的長期佈局</h2>
</div><p>Investors who focus on short-term matters may criticize Microsoft for getting overexcited about AI and recklessly throwing money at projects. And maybe that's so in some respects. But the company has the resources to make these moves. So it's better to overspend than underspend and fall behind the competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關注短期問題的投資者可能會批評微軟對人工智能過於興奮，盲目投入資金於項目。在某些方面也許確實如此。但該公司有資源進行這些佈局。因此，過度支出總比不足支出、落後於競爭對手要好。</p>
</div><p>The company has an impeccable balance sheet with more cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities than debt. It has a massive capital return program consisting of dividends and stock repurchases. In fiscal 2024, which ended June 30, it paid off $29.07 billion in debt and spent $21.77 billion on dividends, and $17.25 billion on stock repurchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司擁有無可挑剔的資產負債表，現金、現金等價物和可交易證券的總額超過債務。它有一個龐大的資本回報計劃，包括股息和股票回購。在截至 6 月 30 日的 2024 財年中，它償還了 290.7 億美元的債務，支付了 217.7 億美元的股息，以及 172.5 億美元的股票回購。</p>
</div><p>It would be a red flag if management were ramping up capex at the expense of its capital return program or financial health, but that simply isn't the case. The company can afford to invest in AI aggressively and is laying the foundation to be a leader in AI for enterprise software and cloud infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果管理層在犧牲資本回報計劃或財務健康的情況下大幅增加資本支出，那將是一個紅旗，但事實並非如此。該公司能夠積極投資於人工智能，併為成為企業軟件和雲基礎設施的人工智能領導者奠定基礎。</p>
</div><p>Alternatively, it could use its excess cash on mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A) instead of organic growth. However, given that many of the AI investments are basically product upgrades to existing tools, the company should innovate on its own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另外，它也可以將多餘的現金用於併購 (M&amp;A)，而不是有機增長。然而，考慮到許多人工智能投資基本上是對現有工具的產品升級，該公司應該自行創新。</p>
</div><p>In fact, it can be a red flag when a company, especially a tech company, relies too heavily on M&amp;A. It can be a sign that the company is incapable of growing on its own, either through poor management, a lack of talent, or a product and service suite that is losing market share to the competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，當一家公司，尤其是科技公司，過於依賴併購時，可能會成為一個紅旗。這可能表明該公司無法獨立增長，可能是由於管理不善、缺乏人才，或產品和服務組合在市場上失去競爭力。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft remains a well-rounded buy for patient investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微軟仍然是耐心投資者的全面買入選擇</h2>
</div><p>The sell-off in Microsoft is a buying opportunity for investors who agree with its capital allocation strategy. Moreover, management has made it abundantly clear that it intends to continue spending aggressively on AI, which could affect its near-term growth rates. So investors who believe it should pull back on spending may decide to sell the stock. And folks who want to see more-tangible results from AI monetization may want to take a wait-and-see approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟的拋售為那些認同其資本配置策略的投資者提供了買入機會。此外，管理層已經明確表示，計劃繼續在人工智能上進行大規模投資，這可能會影響其短期增長率。因此，認為應該減少支出的投資者可能會選擇賣出該股票。而希望看到人工智能變現帶來更具體成果的人可能會選擇觀望。</p>
</div><p>With just a 33.9 price-to-earnings ratio, the stock stands out as a reasonably priced way to get diversified exposure to AI, the cloud, hardware, gaming, and more. Even with heightened spending, Microsoft is still growing its revenue and EPS at double-digit growth rates. All told, it remains the complete package in blue chip growth stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以僅 33.9 的市盈率來看，該股票作為獲取人工智能、雲計算、硬件、遊戲等多元化投資的合理價格選擇，顯得尤為突出。即使支出增加，微軟的收入和每股收益仍在以兩位數的增長率增長。總體而言，它仍然是藍籌成長股的完整組合。</p>
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Microsoft Stock Just Had Its Worst Day in Two Years. Is It a Buy Now?

- 微軟季度收入增長 16%，雲服務收入達  9 億美元，增長 22%。  
- 投資者對其 AI 支出和未來增長預期感到擔憂。  
- 當前股價為 33.9 倍市盈率，仍是值得關注的投資機會。  

微軟股票剛剛經歷了兩年來最糟糕的一天。現在是買入的好時機嗎？