<p><strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 0.20%）最近結束了其 2024 財年的第四季度財報，市場對此反應平淡。該股票在財報發佈前下跌了幾個百分點，但這並不值得大驚小怪。畢竟，過去 12 個月該股票的回報率達到了 25%。對於一家市值高達 3.3 萬億美元的公司來説，這並不算差。</p>
<p>然而，蘋果最大的投資者之一，<strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>，也發佈了財報。由傳奇投資者沃倫·巴菲特管理的伯克希爾，持續削減其在蘋果的持股；該持股的價值已從超過 1700 億美元降至今天的 660 億美元。</p>
<p>投資者必須自行做出決策。話雖如此，我理解這種情況。巴菲特無疑是華爾街最知名的人物，因此在考慮自己是否買入、賣出或持有該股票時，想要關注他公司的動向是很自然的。</p>
<p>現實是，伯克希爾出售蘋果的原因可能與你無關。我將討論伯克希爾的出售行為、蘋果股票真正重要的因素，以及在市場邁向 2025 年之際，該股票是買入、賣出還是持有。</p>
<h2>巴菲特出售蘋果的理由，以及這對你可能沒有影響的原因</h2>
<p>是的，伯克希爾哈撒韋已經出售了超過一半的蘋果股票。但這並不意味着巴菲特的公司不再相信蘋果的潛力。今年早些時候，巴菲特曾多次讚揚蘋果，並稱其業務比 <strong>美國運通</strong> 和 <strong>可口可樂</strong> 更好，而這兩者是伯克希爾最長期的投資。</p>
<p>需要注意的是，自巴菲特首次購買蘋果以來，蘋果股票的價格顯著上漲——公司的市盈率（P/E）在過去八年中穩步上升：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5ebc4beba5d5b439f1e51e4ab96f0b4f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5ebc4beba5d5b439f1e51e4ab96f0b4f.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>這可能影響了巴菲特削減伯克希爾蘋果持股的時機，但在我看來，這本來就是必然的。今年早些時候，蘋果的持股一度佔伯克希爾市值的近 20%。伯克希爾基本上是一個價值萬億美元的私人企業和公共公司股份的投資組合。將如此多的價值集中在單一資產上是有風險的。</p>
<p>在如此高的利潤下兑現部分籌碼對巴菲特來説是明智的。然而，我認為這對於個人決定是否擁有蘋果股票來説並不值得過於關注。</p>
<h2>解釋蘋果更高的估值</h2>
<p>是的，蘋果現在比十年前更昂貴。然而，蘋果的業務發生了變化。其 iOS 設備（主要是 iPhone）創造了一個龐大的客户基礎，向其銷售高利潤的訂閲服務。這些服務收入在 2024 年佔總銷售額的約 24.5%，高於 2023 年的 22.2%。</p>
<p>銷售更多服務並外包其供應鏈使蘋果成為一家更高效的企業，投資資本回報率（ROIC）大幅提高。這有助於解釋為什麼蘋果的估值如此上升……今天的蘋果是一家從根本上更好的企業。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2ec16b6367a259489c09b32754da41e6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2ec16b6367a259489c09b32754da41e6.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 投資資本回報率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>在這種情況下，我認為蘋果股票不會像以前那樣以 12 倍的市盈率交易，除非整體市場出現崩潰。</p>
<h2>蘋果是買入、賣出還是持有？</h2>
<p>但這並不意味着該股票今天是個便宜貨。更高效的蘋果可以用更少的資本賺取更多的錢，但最終，股票的估值必須與所獲得的盈利增長相匹配。</p>
<p>蘋果希望通過在 iOS 18 中實施的一套人工智能（AI）功能來推動設備升級。蘋果在第四季度實現了 6% 的同比收入增長，但對下個季度的增長預期為低到中個位數。公平地説，現在還為時已早。蘋果僅在幾周前發佈了蘋果智能，因此需要時間來影響公司的數據。</p>
<p>蘋果在 2024 年每股收益為 6.08 美元，分析師目前預計 2025 財年（截至 2025 年 9 月）的每股收益將增長 21% 至 7.40 美元，下一年再增長 11% 至 8.25 美元。在未來三到五年內，分析師預計蘋果的收益將每年增長約 12%。蘋果是一家如此優秀的企業，以至於其估值高於大多數其他公司，但在 PEG 比率約為 3 的情況下，進一步加碼該股票是困難的。換句話説，蘋果的估值對於其預期的收益增長來説有些過高。</p>
<p>蘋果是一家太優秀的企業，不應該出售，但投資者可能應該等到其估值降温或蘋果的增長前景更加確定時再考慮買入。今天將該股票視為持有。</p>

蘋果

<p>蘋果的股票在其 2024 財年第四季度財報發佈後略有下滑，儘管過去一年回報率達 25%。伯克希爾·哈撒韋已減少其在蘋果的持股，但這並不一定反映出對公司的信心不足。由於其盈利的訂閲服務，蘋果的估值有所上升，但分析師建議目前股票被高估，PEG 比率約為 3。因此，儘管蘋果仍然是一家強勁的企業，但建議持有該股票，直到其估值變得更具吸引力</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.20%) recently closed out its fiscal year 2024 with fourth-quarter earnings, and the market responded with a shrug. The stock is down a few percentage points from before its earnings report, but it's nothing to sound the alarm about. After all, the stock has returned 25% over the past 12 months. That's not bad for a stock carrying a whopping $3.3 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 0.20%）最近結束了其 2024 財年的第四季度財報，市場對此反應平淡。該股票在財報發佈前下跌了幾個百分點，但這並不值得大驚小怪。畢竟，過去 12 個月該股票的回報率達到了 25%。對於一家市值高達 3.3 萬億美元的公司來説，這並不算差。</p>
</div><p>However, one of Apple's largest investors, <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>, reported earnings, too. Berkshire, run by legendary investor Warren Buffett, keeps trimming its stake in Apple; that stake has fallen in value from over $170 billion to just $66 billion today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，蘋果最大的投資者之一，<strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>，也發佈了財報。由傳奇投資者沃倫·巴菲特管理的伯克希爾，持續削減其在蘋果的持股；該持股的價值已從超過 1700 億美元降至今天的 660 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Investors must make their own decisions. That said, I get it. Buffett is arguably Wall Street's biggest name, so it's tempting to think about the moves his company is making when weighing buying, selling, or holding the stock for yourself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者必須自行做出決策。話雖如此，我理解這種情況。巴菲特無疑是華爾街最知名的人物，因此在考慮自己是否買入、賣出或持有該股票時，想要關注他公司的動向是很自然的。</p>
</div><p>The reality is that Berkshire's reasons for selling Apple likely have nothing to do with you. I'll discuss Berkshire's selling, what actually matters for Apple stock, and whether the stock is a buy, sell, or hold as the market barrels toward 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現實是，伯克希爾出售蘋果的原因可能與你無關。我將討論伯克希爾的出售行為、蘋果股票真正重要的因素，以及在市場邁向 2025 年之際，該股票是買入、賣出還是持有。</p>
</div><h2>Selling Apple makes sense for Buffett, and why it probably doesn't matter to you</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特出售蘋果的理由，以及這對你可能沒有影響的原因</h2>
</div><p>Yes, Berkshire Hathaway has sold over half its Apple stock. But that doesn't mean Buffett's company no longer believes in Apple's potential. Buffett has repeatedly praised Apple and called it a better business than <strong>American Express</strong> and <strong>Coca-Cola</strong>, two of Berkshire's longest-standing investments, earlier this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，伯克希爾哈撒韋已經出售了超過一半的蘋果股票。但這並不意味着巴菲特的公司不再相信蘋果的潛力。今年早些時候，巴菲特曾多次讚揚蘋果，並稱其業務比 <strong>美國運通</strong> 和 <strong>可口可樂</strong> 更好，而這兩者是伯克希爾最長期的投資。</p>
</div><p>It should be noted that Apple stock has become significantly more expensive since Buffett first bought it -- the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has steadily increased over the past eight years:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要注意的是，自巴菲特首次購買蘋果以來，蘋果股票的價格顯著上漲——公司的市盈率（P/E）在過去八年中穩步上升：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5ebc4beba5d5b439f1e51e4ab96f0b4f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5ebc4beba5d5b439f1e51e4ab96f0b4f.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>That could have impacted Buffett's timing in trimming Berkshire's Apple stake, but in my view, it was bound to happen anyway. The Apple stake grew to nearly 20% of Berkshire's market cap earlier this year. Berkshire is basically a trillion-dollar portfolio of private businesses and stakes in public companies. Having so much value tied up in a single asset is risky.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這可能影響了巴菲特削減伯克希爾蘋果持股的時機，但在我看來，這本來就是必然的。今年早些時候，蘋果的持股一度佔伯克希爾市值的近 20%。伯克希爾基本上是一個價值萬億美元的私人企業和公共公司股份的投資組合。將如此多的價值集中在單一資產上是有風險的。</p>
</div><p>Cashing in some of those chips at such a high profit was prudent for Buffett. However, I don't think it's worth weighing too heavily for individuals deciding whether or not to own Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在如此高的利潤下兑現部分籌碼對巴菲特來説是明智的。然而，我認為這對於個人決定是否擁有蘋果股票來説並不值得過於關注。</p>
</div><h2>Explaining Apple's higher valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>解釋蘋果更高的估值</h2>
</div><p>Yes, Apple is more expensive now than a decade ago. However, Apple's business has changed. Its iOS devices (primarily the iPhone) have created a massive customer base to which it sells highly profitable subscription services. Those service revenues represented about 24.5% of total sales in 2024, up from 22.2% in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，蘋果現在比十年前更昂貴。然而，蘋果的業務發生了變化。其 iOS 設備（主要是 iPhone）創造了一個龐大的客户基礎，向其銷售高利潤的訂閲服務。這些服務收入在 2024 年佔總銷售額的約 24.5%，高於 2023 年的 22.2%。</p>
</div><p>Selling more services and outsourcing its supply chain has made Apple a more efficient business with a far higher return on invested capital (ROIC). This helps explain why Apple's valuation has risen so much ... it's a fundamentally better business today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銷售更多服務並外包其供應鏈使蘋果成為一家更高效的企業，投資資本回報率（ROIC）大幅提高。這有助於解釋為什麼蘋果的估值如此上升……今天的蘋果是一家從根本上更好的企業。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2ec16b6367a259489c09b32754da41e6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2ec16b6367a259489c09b32754da41e6.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Return on Invested Capital data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 投資資本回報率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>In this light, I don't think Apple stock will trade at 12 times earnings as it once did, barring some collapse in the broader markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，我認為蘋果股票不會像以前那樣以 12 倍的市盈率交易，除非整體市場出現崩潰。</p>
</div><h2>Is Apple a buy, sell, or hold?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果是買入、賣出還是持有？</h2>
</div><p>But that doesn't mean the stock is a bargain today. A more efficient Apple can make more money with less capital, but ultimately, the stock's valuation must make sense for the earnings growth you get.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這並不意味着該股票今天是個便宜貨。更高效的蘋果可以用更少的資本賺取更多的錢，但最終，股票的估值必須與所獲得的盈利增長相匹配。</p>
</div><p>Apple hopes that Apple Intelligence, a set of artificial intelligence (AI) features implemented in iOS 18, will boost device upgrades. Apple posted 6% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 but guided for low- to mid-single-digit growth next quarter. To be fair, it's still early. Apple only released Apple Intelligence a couple of weeks ago, so it will take time to impact the company's numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果希望通過在 iOS 18 中實施的一套人工智能（AI）功能來推動設備升級。蘋果在第四季度實現了 6% 的同比收入增長，但對下個季度的增長預期為低到中個位數。公平地説，現在還為時已早。蘋果僅在幾周前發佈了蘋果智能，因此需要時間來影響公司的數據。</p>
</div><p>Apple earned $6.08 per share in 2024, and analysts currently project that earnings per share will grow 21% to $7.40 in fiscal year 2025 (ending September 2025) and another 11% to $8.25 the following year. Over the next three to five years, analysts estimate Apple will grow earnings by about 12% annually. Apple is such a good business that it earns a premium to most others, but it's hard to lean further into the stock at a PEG ratio of about 3. In other words, Apple's valuation is a little too lofty for its expected earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果在 2024 年每股收益為 6.08 美元，分析師目前預計 2025 財年（截至 2025 年 9 月）的每股收益將增長 21% 至 7.40 美元，下一年再增長 11% 至 8.25 美元。在未來三到五年內，分析師預計蘋果的收益將每年增長約 12%。蘋果是一家如此優秀的企業，以至於其估值高於大多數其他公司，但在 PEG 比率約為 3 的情況下，進一步加碼該股票是困難的。換句話説，蘋果的估值對於其預期的收益增長來説有些過高。</p>
</div><p>Apple is too good a business to sell, but investors should probably wait to buy until its valuation cools off or there is more certainty in Apple's growth prospects. Consider the stock a hold today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果是一家太優秀的企業，不應該出售，但投資者可能應該等到其估值降温或蘋果的增長前景更加確定時再考慮買入。今天將該股票視為持有。</p>
</div>

Is Apple Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2025?

- 蘋果公司在 2024 財年第四季度盈利後，股價小幅下跌。  
- 伯克希爾哈撒韋減持蘋果股份，儘管仍看好其潛力。  
- 分析師預計蘋果未來三年年均盈利增長約 12%，建議持有該股。

2025 年蘋果股票是應該買入、賣出還是持有？