<p>過去幾年對耐心的 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.33%) 股東來説是非常豐厚的。自 2022 年初因疫情而觸底以來，股價上漲超過 300%，過去十年更是上漲了 700%。這主要歸功於 iPhone 和蘋果的應用商店。</p>
<p>問題是，自 2023 年初以來，收入並沒有太大變化。如果不是由於其服務部門的持續增長，收入甚至可能會下滑。儘管如此，股價仍在上漲，主要是因為市場預期蘋果在人工智能領域的探索將會帶來回報。</p>
<p>也許會如此。然而，考慮到公司面臨的各種風險和挑戰，或許在此時避開價格過高的蘋果股票，轉而投資於更具潛力的項目會更明智。電子商務技術和服務提供商 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 2.95%) 恰好符合這一要求。</p>
<h2>為什麼不選擇蘋果？</h2>
<p>不要誤解。蘋果遠非註定要失敗。至少，製造全球最受歡迎的智能手機是有實力的。公司的服務部門仍在增長，進一步增強了看漲的理由。</p>
<p>然而，有一個不可否認的現實是，任何股東都無法忽視。也就是説，蘋果的 iPhone 業務在單位銷售和收入方面都處於停滯狀態。</p>
<p>iPhone 的銷售在一年中的平均時間內有所波動。每當更新型號在九月推出時，需求就會增加，隨後在第四季度因節日贈禮和完整的財務季度購買而大幅飆升。實際上，iPhone 業務如此不穩定，以至於很難確定這一業務是否真的在增長。下面的圖表通過繪製 iPhone 的四個季度平均收入和單位銷售情況來幫助説明這一點。正如圖像所示，自 2022 年初以來，蘋果的智能手機業務確實一直處於停滯狀態。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY1NzQvMTEwNDI0LWlwaG9uZS1yZXZlbnVlLXVuaXQtZGVsaXZlcmllcy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY1NzQvMTEwNDI0LWlwaG9uZS1yZXZlbnVlLXVuaXQtZGVsaXZlcmllcy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>數據來源：蘋果公司和 IDC。圖表由作者製作。收入以百萬計。單位交付量以百萬計。</p>
<p>這並不一定是災難性的。再説一次，這就是蘋果。它是全球最大的公司之一，絕非無緣無故。</p>
<p>然而，考慮到 iPhone 仍佔蘋果收入的約一半，這種停滯是不可忽視的。在某個時刻，蘋果 <em>將</em> 需要開始推動一些可衡量和有意義的收入增長。</p>
<p>新款具備人工智能功能的 iPhone 可能會有所幫助，但並不能保證它們會產生重大看漲影響。畢竟，類似於蘋果智能助手的在線工具也可供其他品牌的智能手機用户使用，即使這些人工智能工作並不是直接在這些設備上進行的。</p>
<h2>為什麼選擇 Shopify？</h2>
<p>那麼，Shopify 有什麼是蘋果沒有的呢？真正的增長——現在，以及可預見的未來。</p>
<p>如果你不熟悉，Shopify 幫助商家建立自己的電子商務網站。從在線購物車到支付處理，再到互聯網營銷和客户管理工具，Shopify 的解決方案套件意味着它幾乎是任何類型業務的即用型選擇。</p>
<p>毫無疑問，企業正在使用這些工具。該公司的技術在截至 6 月的三個月內促進了 672 億美元的商品和服務銷售，同比增長 22%。事實上，該公司已經以這樣的速度增長了好幾年，並預計在未來幾年內將繼續保持這種增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY1NzQvMTEwNDI0LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy1wYXN0LXByb2plY3RlZC5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY1NzQvMTEwNDI0LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy1wYXN0LXByb2plY3RlZC5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>數據來源：StockAnalysis.com。圖表由作者製作。</p>
<p>然而，這種看漲的前景可能仍然低估了未來的增長潛力以及這種增長的持久性。</p>
<p>簡單來説，電子商務行業不僅在增長。它也在演變。雖然像 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>eBay</strong> 這樣的在線商城最初的目的達到了，但許多商家和製造商現在更好地通過直接與客户建立關係來服務自己，而不是依賴可能會破壞或控制這些關係的在線中介。</p>
<p>然而，這只是看漲論點的一半。另一半是整個電子商務行業等待的增長量。根據最新的數據，人口普查局報告稱，美國零售銷售中只有約 16%——Shopify 大部分業務所在的領域——是在線完成的。其餘的 84% 仍在實體店中進行，留待爭奪。關鍵在於向這些購物者做出正確的吸引，促使他們從線下轉向線上。</p>
<p>為此，市場研究機構 Precedence Research 認為，全球電子商務行業預計將在 2034 年前以每年接近 15% 的平均速度增長，這一增長主要由那些通過建立自己的在線存在而獲得最大收益的成熟直銷品牌推動。</p>
<p>關鍵在於：與剛剛創下新高的蘋果股票不同，Shopify 的股票仍遠低於其 2021 年底的峯值，儘管自 2022 年低點以來大幅上漲。</p>
<h2>如果沒有其他選擇，務實一點</h2>
<p>這種情況不會一直如此。總會有一天，蘋果將再次成為必買的股票，就像總會有一天，Shopify 的股票因其潛在回報而面臨過多風險。</p>
<p>但現在不是時候。現在——由於近期但沒有依據的看漲情緒——蘋果可以説是市場上最被高估的股票之一，而 Shopify 則是最被低估的名字之一。趁此機會好好利用，也許更重要的是，不要因為它們是最受歡迎的股票就堅持擁有它們。沒有什麼是永恆的，無論是好是壞。</p>

SHOP

蘋果

<p>這篇文章討論了蘋果（AAPL）股票的表現，儘管在過去幾年中取得了顯著的增長，但目前其 iPhone 銷售和收入正面臨停滯。文章建議投資者可以考慮 Shopify（SHOP），因為它在電子商務領域提供了真正的增長潛力。Shopify 正在快速增長，為企業促進了可觀的銷售，並受益於持續向在線零售的轉變。預計電子商務行業將繼續擴張，為 Shopify 提供機會，而這些機會可能是蘋果目前無法提供的</p>

<p>The past few years have been very rewarding ones for patient <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.33%) shareholders. The stock's up more than 300% since its early 2022 pandemic-prompted low, and higher to the tune of 700% for the past decade. Credit the iPhone and Apple's app store for most of this gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去幾年對耐心的 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.33%) 股東來説是非常豐厚的。自 2022 年初因疫情而觸底以來，股價上漲超過 300%，過去十年更是上漲了 700%。這主要歸功於 iPhone 和蘋果的應用商店。</p>
</div><p>The thing is, revenue hasn't really budged much since early 2023. And had it not been for the ongoing growth of its services arm, it might have even slumped. The stock's been climbing anyway, largely on expectations that Apple's foray into the artificial intelligence arena will pay off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題是，自 2023 年初以來，收入並沒有太大變化。如果不是由於其服務部門的持續增長，收入甚至可能會下滑。儘管如此，股價仍在上漲，主要是因為市場預期蘋果在人工智能領域的探索將會帶來回報。</p>
</div><p>Maybe it will. Given all the company's risks and challenges, however, perhaps it would be wiser to steer clear of frothily priced Apple shares at this time and instead dive into something with more promising upside. E-commerce technology and service provider <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 2.95%) fits the bill nicely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也許會如此。然而，考慮到公司面臨的各種風險和挑戰，或許在此時避開價格過高的蘋果股票，轉而投資於更具潛力的項目會更明智。電子商務技術和服務提供商 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP 2.95%) 恰好符合這一要求。</p>
</div><h2>Why not Apple?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼不選擇蘋果？</h2>
</div><p>Don't misunderstand. Apple is far from being doomed. At the very least, there's power in making the world's most popular smartphone. The company's still-growing services arm further bolsters the bullish case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要誤解。蘋果遠非註定要失敗。至少，製造全球最受歡迎的智能手機是有實力的。公司的服務部門仍在增長，進一步增強了看漲的理由。</p>
</div><p>There's an undeniable reality that no shareholder can afford to ignore, however. That is, Apple's iPhone business is stagnant as measured by unit sales as well as by revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，有一個不可否認的現實是，任何股東都無法忽視。也就是説，蘋果的 iPhone 業務在單位銷售和收入方面都處於停滯狀態。</p>
</div><p>Sales of the iPhone vary throughout the average year. Demand perks up when updated models are launched in September, and then outright soars in the fourth calendar quarter thanks to holiday gift-giving and a full fiscal quarter's worth of buying. Its iPhone business is so erratic, in fact, that it's difficult to determine whether or not this business is actually growing. The graphic below helps in this regard, by virtue of plotting the iPhone's four-quarter average revenue and unit sales. As the image makes clear, Apple's smartphone business has indeed been stagnant since early 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iPhone 的銷售在一年中的平均時間內有所波動。每當更新型號在九月推出時，需求就會增加，隨後在第四季度因節日贈禮和完整的財務季度購買而大幅飆升。實際上，iPhone 業務如此不穩定，以至於很難確定這一業務是否真的在增長。下面的圖表通過繪製 iPhone 的四個季度平均收入和單位銷售情況來幫助説明這一點。正如圖像所示，自 2022 年初以來，蘋果的智能手機業務確實一直處於停滯狀態。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY1NzQvMTEwNDI0LWlwaG9uZS1yZXZlbnVlLXVuaXQtZGVsaXZlcmllcy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796574%2F110424-iphone-revenue-unit-deliveries.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Apple Inc. and IDC. Chart by author. Revenue is in millions. Unit deliveries are in millions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：蘋果公司和 IDC。圖表由作者製作。收入以百萬計。單位交付量以百萬計。</p>
</div><p>It's not necessarily disastrous. Again, this is Apple. It's one of the world's very biggest companies for good reason.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不一定是災難性的。再説一次，這就是蘋果。它是全球最大的公司之一，絕非無緣無故。</p>
</div><p>Given that the iPhone still accounts for around half of Apple's revenue, though, this stagnation is nothing to ignore. At some point, Apple <em>will</em> need to start driving some measurable and meaningful top-line growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，考慮到 iPhone 仍佔蘋果收入的約一半，這種停滯是不可忽視的。在某個時刻，蘋果 <em>將</em> 需要開始推動一些可衡量和有意義的收入增長。</p>
</div><p>Newer AI-capable iPhones could help, but there's no guarantee they will make a major bullish dent. After all, online tools comparable to Apple Intelligence are available to users of other brands of smartphones, even if the artificial intelligence work being done isn't handled directly from these other devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新款具備人工智能功能的 iPhone 可能會有所幫助，但並不能保證它們會產生重大看漲影響。畢竟，類似於蘋果智能助手的在線工具也可供其他品牌的智能手機用户使用，即使這些人工智能工作並不是直接在這些設備上進行的。</p>
</div><h2>Why Shopify?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼選擇 Shopify？</h2>
</div><p>So what does Shopify have that Apple doesn't? Real growth -- right now, and for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，Shopify 有什麼是蘋果沒有的呢？真正的增長——現在，以及可預見的未來。</p>
</div><p>If you're not familiar with it, Shopify helps merchants build their own e-commerce websites. From online shopping carts to payment processing to internet marketing to customer management tools, Shopify's suite of solutions means it's a turn-key option for almost any kind of business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你不熟悉，Shopify 幫助商家建立自己的電子商務網站。從在線購物車到支付處理，再到互聯網營銷和客户管理工具，Shopify 的解決方案套件意味着它幾乎是任何類型業務的即用型選擇。</p>
</div><p>Businesses are using these tools, to be sure. The company's tech facilitated the sale of $67.2 billion worth of goods and services during the three-month stretch ending in June, up 22% year over year. Indeed, the company's been growing at such a pace for several years now, and is expected to continue doing so for at least the next several more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫無疑問，企業正在使用這些工具。該公司的技術在截至 6 月的三個月內促進了 672 億美元的商品和服務銷售，同比增長 22%。事實上，該公司已經以這樣的速度增長了好幾年，並預計在未來幾年內將繼續保持這種增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY1NzQvMTEwNDI0LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy1wYXN0LXByb2plY3RlZC5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796574%2F110424-shopify-results-past-projected.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: StockAnalysis.com. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：StockAnalysis.com。圖表由作者製作。</p>
</div><p>This bullish outlook, however, may still ultimately understate what's in store in terms of growth, as well as this growth's longevity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這種看漲的前景可能仍然低估了未來的增長潛力以及這種增長的持久性。</p>
</div><p>Simply put, the e-commerce industry isn't just growing. It's also evolving. While online malls like <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>eBay</strong> served their initial purpose well enough, many merchants and manufacturers are now better served by doing their own thing, directly cultivating relationships with customers instead of using online middlemen that could wreck or commandeer these relationships in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡單來説，電子商務行業不僅在增長。它也在演變。雖然像 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>eBay</strong> 這樣的在線商城最初的目的達到了，但許多商家和製造商現在更好地通過直接與客户建立關係來服務自己，而不是依賴可能會破壞或控制這些關係的在線中介。</p>
</div><p>That's only half the bullish argument, however. The other half is how much growth awaits the entirety of the e-commerce industry. As of its latest look, the Census Bureau reports that only about 16% of the United States' retail sales -- where Shopify does most of its business -- are done online. The other 84% is still done in-store, leaving it up for grabs. The key is simply making the right appeal to these shoppers, shifting them from an offline to an online venue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這只是看漲論點的一半。另一半是整個電子商務行業等待的增長量。根據最新的數據，人口普查局報告稱，美國零售銷售中只有約 16%——Shopify 大部分業務所在的領域——是在線完成的。其餘的 84% 仍在實體店中進行，留待爭奪。關鍵在於向這些購物者做出正確的吸引，促使他們從線下轉向線上。</p>
</div><p>To this end, market research outfit Precedence Research believes the worldwide e-commerce industry is poised to grow at an average annual pace of just under 15% through 2034, with that growth led by the established direct-to-consumer brands that have the most to gain by building their own online presence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為此，市場研究機構 Precedence Research 認為，全球電子商務行業預計將在 2034 年前以每年接近 15% 的平均速度增長，這一增長主要由那些通過建立自己的在線存在而獲得最大收益的成熟直銷品牌推動。</p>
</div><p>The kicker: Unlike Apple's stock, which is just coming off yet another record high, Shopify shares are still well below their late-2021 peak, despite their big gain from 2022's low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關鍵在於：與剛剛創下新高的蘋果股票不同，Shopify 的股票仍遠低於其 2021 年底的峯值，儘管自 2022 年低點以來大幅上漲。</p>
</div><h2>If nothing else, be pragmatic</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果沒有其他選擇，務實一點</h2>
</div><p>This won't always be the case. There will come a time when Apple is a must-own stock again, just as there will come a time when Shopify shares pose too much risk for their prospective reward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種情況不會一直如此。總會有一天，蘋果將再次成為必買的股票，就像總會有一天，Shopify 的股票因其潛在回報而面臨過多風險。</p>
</div><p>That time isn't now, though. Right now -- thanks to recent but unsupported bullishness -- Apple is arguably one of the market's most overvalued tickers, while Shopify is one of its most underestimated names. Take advantage of this opportunity while you can, and perhaps more importantly, don't insist on owning the world's most popular stocks just because they're popular. Nothing lasts forever, for better and worse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但現在不是時候。現在——由於近期但沒有依據的看漲情緒——蘋果可以説是市場上最被高估的股票之一，而 Shopify 則是最被低估的名字之一。趁此機會好好利用，也許更重要的是，不要因為它們是最受歡迎的股票就堅持擁有它們。沒有什麼是永恆的，無論是好是壞。</p>
</div>

Should You Forget Apple? Why You Might Want to Buy This Unstoppable Growth Stock Instead.

- 蘋果公司股價自 2022 年以來上漲超過 300%，但收入增長停滯。  
- 由於 iPhone 銷售疲軟，投資者應關注 Shopify 的持續增長潛力。  
- 電子商務行業預計將以每年近 15% 的速度增長，市場機會巨大。  

你應該忘記蘋果嗎？為什麼你可能會想要購買這隻勢不可擋的成長股