<p><strong>奧馳亞</strong>(MO 0.95%) 的股票在過去一年中表現出色，價值增長超過 30%。2024 年第三季度的財報讓投資者特別興奮，股票在發佈後迅速上漲。但奧馳亞的業務真的那麼好嗎？要回答這個問題，你需要深入研究一下數據。但你只需稍微探究一下，就會意識到長期前景可能並不像管理層希望你相信的那樣美好。</p>
<h2>奧馳亞的業務是什麼？</h2>
<p>重要的是要退後一步，瞭解奧馳亞所經營的核心業務。在 2024 年前九個月，該公司大約產生了 180 億美元的收入。在這個總額中，可吸煙產品帶來了 159 億美元的收入，約佔總收入的 88%。可吸煙產品包括香煙和雪茄，其中香煙佔據了約 98% 的銷量。在香煙中，萬寶路品牌佔據了超過 90% 的銷量。所有這些都清楚地表明，奧馳亞是一家高端品牌香煙公司。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY2MTkvMjNfMDJfMjAtaGFuZHMtaG9sZGluZy1ibG9ja3Mtc3BlbGxpbmctcmlzay1hbmQtcmV3YXJkLV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY2MTkvMjNfMDJfMjAtaGFuZHMtaG9sZGluZy1ibG9ja3Mtc3BlbGxpbmctcmlzay1hbmQtcmV3YXJkLV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>但現在，奧馳亞花了很多時間來強調其最近收購的 NJOY 電子煙業務。這是公司 2024 年第三季度財報中首次詳細討論的 “部門”。奧馳亞強調積極因素是有道理的。NJOY 確實有很多積極因素，但你必須對這些信息保持謹慎。</p>
<p>例如，在第三季度，NJOY 的消費品出貨量同比增長了 15.6%。NJOY 設備的出貨量增長超過 100%！而且 NJOY 在其產品類別中年同比增長了 2.8 個百分點。這些都是非常好的消息，但 NJOY 的基數很小。僅僅將 NJOY 納入奧馳亞的分銷系統，就可以預期其業績會迅速改善。換句話説，產品的增長是好消息，但考慮到當前的情況，這並不令人驚訝。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d2f174ad04854ba458060d7e2a1f3433.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d2f174ad04854ba458060d7e2a1f3433.png"/></p>
<p>MO 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>奧馳亞的問題並沒有消失</h2>
<p>在這裏，投資者需要更加謹慎。公司在試圖淡化其最糟糕的特徵時，正在大力宣傳其最佳屬性。儘管 NJOY 是一個亮點，但它的規模太小，以至於其產生的收入被歸類為 “其他” 類別。作為參考，儘管 NJOY 管理層告訴投資者有關增長的所有信息，但在第三季度，“其他” 類別在收入表中所佔的比例不到 1%。這甚至不是一個四捨五入的誤差。</p>
<p>事實上，NJOY 的所有增長似乎在 2024 年前九個月並沒有幫助奧馳亞的總收入，因為整體收入同比下降了 2.5%。當你查看奧馳亞大部分收入的來源時，原因非常簡單。這仍然是一家高端香煙公司。就這樣。NJOY 是一個很好的故事，但在這一點上並沒有多大意義，可能還需要很長時間才能對公司香煙業務的持續下滑產生足夠的影響。</p>
<p>為了量化這種下滑，萬寶路的銷量在第三季度下降了 7.5%，在 2024 年前九個月下降了 9.4%。奧馳亞的非萬寶路品牌表現更差。但這裏有一個重要的結論——即使是常規的提價也不足以抵消 2024 年前九個月銷量下滑帶來的影響。</p>
<h2>這不是一隻適合膽小者的分紅股票</h2>
<p>從投資者的角度來看，問題在於奧馳亞支付了高達 7.5% 的豐厚分紅收益率，這對分紅投資者來説就像是海妖的召喚。儘管其最重要的業務持續下滑，但目前仍能支持這一收益率。但長期的分紅投資者需要問自己，這種情況能持續多久，因為華爾街如此興奮的替代產品仍然只是奧馳亞業務中的一小部分。</p>
<p>如果你決定購買奧馳亞的股票，確保像鷹一樣緊盯這隻股票。然而，大多數投資者可能更適合尋找其他可靠的被動收入來源。</p>

奧馳亞集團

<p>奧馳亞集團的股價在過去一年中上漲了超過 30%，主要受到強勁的第三季度財報推動。然而，關於其業務可持續性的擔憂依然存在，公司的收入主要依賴於可吸煙產品，這部分產品佔總收入的 88%。儘管 NJOY 電子煙部門有所增長，但其貢獻仍然較小，整體收入同比下降了 2.5%。公司面臨香煙銷量下降的挑戰，這引發了對其高股息收益率長期可行性的質疑。投資者被建議保持謹慎，並考慮其他可靠的收入選擇</p>

<p>Shares of <strong>Altria</strong>(MO 0.95%) have had a great run over the past year, gaining more than 30% in value. Third-quarter 2024 earnings got investors particularly excited, with the stock rallying sharply after the release. But is Altria's business really that good? To answer that question you need to dig into the numbers a little bit. But you only have to scratch the surface before you realize that the long-term picture may not be as good as management wants you to believe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>奧馳亞</strong>(MO 0.95%) 的股票在過去一年中表現出色，價值增長超過 30%。2024 年第三季度的財報讓投資者特別興奮，股票在發佈後迅速上漲。但奧馳亞的業務真的那麼好嗎？要回答這個問題，你需要深入研究一下數據。但你只需稍微探究一下，就會意識到長期前景可能並不像管理層希望你相信的那樣美好。</p>
</div><h2>What does Altria do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>奧馳亞的業務是什麼？</h2>
</div><p>It is important to step back and understand the core business in which Altria operates. Through the first nine months of 2024, the company generated roughly $18 billion in revenue. Of that total, smokable products brought in $15.9 billion in revenue, or about 88% of the total. Smokable products include both cigarettes and cigars, with cigarettes accounting for about 98% of volume. Within cigarettes, the Marlboro brand accounted for just over 90% of volume. All this leads very clearly to the fact that Altria is a high-end branded cigarette company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是要退後一步，瞭解奧馳亞所經營的核心業務。在 2024 年前九個月，該公司大約產生了 180 億美元的收入。在這個總額中，可吸煙產品帶來了 159 億美元的收入，約佔總收入的 88%。可吸煙產品包括香煙和雪茄，其中香煙佔據了約 98% 的銷量。在香煙中，萬寶路品牌佔據了超過 90% 的銷量。所有這些都清楚地表明，奧馳亞是一家高端品牌香煙公司。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTY2MTkvMjNfMDJfMjAtaGFuZHMtaG9sZGluZy1ibG9ja3Mtc3BlbGxpbmctcmlzay1hbmQtcmV3YXJkLV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796619%2F23_02_20-hands-holding-blocks-spelling-risk-and-reward-_mf-dload.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>But right now, Altria is spending a lot of time highlighting the NJOY vaping business it recently acquired. It is the first &#34;division&#34; that is discussed in any detail in the company's third-quarter 2024 earnings release. It makes sense that Altria would highlight the positives. And there are major positives with NJOY, but you have to take them with a grain of salt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但現在，奧馳亞花了很多時間來強調其最近收購的 NJOY 電子煙業務。這是公司 2024 年第三季度財報中首次詳細討論的 “部門”。奧馳亞強調積極因素是有道理的。NJOY 確實有很多積極因素，但你必須對這些信息保持謹慎。</p>
</div><p>For example, in the third quarter, NJOY's consumables shipment volume rose 15.6% compared to the same quarter a year ago. NJOY devices shipments rose more than 100%! And NJOY gained 2.8 share points year over year in its product category. That's all very good news, but NJOY is working off of a small base. A swift improvement in performance is to be expected just from plugging NJOY into Altria's distribution system alone. Put another way, the product's growth is good news, but given the situation it isn't surprising news in any way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，在第三季度，NJOY 的消費品出貨量同比增長了 15.6%。NJOY 設備的出貨量增長超過 100%！而且 NJOY 在其產品類別中年同比增長了 2.8 個百分點。這些都是非常好的消息，但 NJOY 的基數很小。僅僅將 NJOY 納入奧馳亞的分銷系統，就可以預期其業績會迅速改善。換句話説，產品的增長是好消息，但考慮到當前的情況，這並不令人驚訝。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d2f174ad04854ba458060d7e2a1f3433.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d2f174ad04854ba458060d7e2a1f3433.png"/></p>
<p>MO data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MO 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Altria's problems haven't gone away</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>奧馳亞的問題並沒有消失</h2>
</div><p>This is where investors need to be more discerning. The company is cheerleading its best attributes as it attempts to downplay its worst ones. And while NJOY is a bright spot, it is so small that the income it generates is classified in the &#34;other&#34; category. The &#34;other&#34; category on the income statement, for reference, accounted for much less than 1% of revenue in the third quarter despite all of that growth at NJOY management told investors about. It isn't even a rounding error.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這裏，投資者需要更加謹慎。公司在試圖淡化其最糟糕的特徵時，正在大力宣傳其最佳屬性。儘管 NJOY 是一個亮點，但它的規模太小，以至於其產生的收入被歸類為 “其他” 類別。作為參考，儘管 NJOY 管理層告訴投資者有關增長的所有信息，但在第三季度，“其他” 類別在收入表中所佔的比例不到 1%。這甚至不是一個四捨五入的誤差。</p>
</div><p>In fact, all of that growth at NJOY seemingly didn't help Altria's top line at all through the first nine months of the year, since overall revenue declined 2.5% year over year in that span. The reason is really simple to understand, too, when you look at where most of Altria's revenue is generated. This is still a premium cigarette company. Period. Hard stop. NJOY is a great story, but it just isn't meaningful at this point, and it will likely be a long time before it is meaningful enough to offset the ongoing declines in the company's cigarette business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，NJOY 的所有增長似乎在 2024 年前九個月並沒有幫助奧馳亞的總收入，因為整體收入同比下降了 2.5%。當你查看奧馳亞大部分收入的來源時，原因非常簡單。這仍然是一家高端香煙公司。就這樣。NJOY 是一個很好的故事，但在這一點上並沒有多大意義，可能還需要很長時間才能對公司香煙業務的持續下滑產生足夠的影響。</p>
</div><p>To put a number on the declines, Marlboro volume was down 7.5% in the third quarter and was off by 9.4% through the first nine months of 2024. Altria's non-Marlboro brands performed even worse. But here's the big takeaway -- even regular price increases weren't enough to offset the hit from volume declines through the first nine months of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了量化這種下滑，萬寶路的銷量在第三季度下降了 7.5%，在 2024 年前九個月下降了 9.4%。奧馳亞的非萬寶路品牌表現更差。但這裏有一個重要的結論——即使是常規的提價也不足以抵消 2024 年前九個月銷量下滑帶來的影響。</p>
</div><h2>This is not a dividend stock for the faint of heart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這不是一隻適合膽小者的分紅股票</h2>
</div><p>The problem from an investor's point of view is that Altria pays a huge 7.5% dividend yield, which is like a siren call to dividend investors. It can support that yield for now despite the ongoing declines in its most important business. But long-term dividend investors need to ask how long this can last given that the replacement product Wall Street is so excited about is still just a tiny part of Altria's business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從投資者的角度來看，問題在於奧馳亞支付了高達 7.5% 的豐厚分紅收益率，這對分紅投資者來説就像是海妖的召喚。儘管其最重要的業務持續下滑，但目前仍能支持這一收益率。但長期的分紅投資者需要問自己，這種情況能持續多久，因為華爾街如此興奮的替代產品仍然只是奧馳亞業務中的一小部分。</p>
</div><p>If you do decide to buy Altria, make sure you follow the stock like a hawk. Most investors, however, will probably be better off looking elsewhere for reliable passive income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你決定購買奧馳亞的股票，確保像鷹一樣緊盯這隻股票。然而，大多數投資者可能更適合尋找其他可靠的被動收入來源。</p>
</div>

奧馳亞集團的股票上漲了，但這隻股票值得購買嗎？