<p><strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>（BRK.A）（BRK.B 0.71%）的現金儲備在第三季度達到了創紀錄的水平。這家公司由投資者沃倫·巴菲特管理，持續削減其股票投資組合，目前在資產負債表上持有近 3250 億美元的現金。雖然這並不一定意味着巴菲特對股市做出了方向性的判斷，但這位奧馬哈的先知在市場飆升至歷史新高時對投資變得更加謹慎。正如他可能所説的那樣，“在別人恐懼時要貪婪。”</p>
<p>他籌集現金的最大來源是 <strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -0.12%），巴菲特今年一直在持續減持。他在第三季度再次出售，將伯克希爾哈撒韋的持股減少到約 3 億股，價值約 699 億美元。今年早些時候，他出售了近 4 億股，減少了公司約一半的持股。</p>
<p>儘管巴菲特減持了伯克希爾的蘋果股份，但該股票仍在上漲，過去 12 個月上漲了約 25%。這是否給其他股東提供了在合適時機減持這家科技巨頭的機會？讓我們仔細看看，調查一下現在是否是從投資組合中出售蘋果股票的好時機。</p>
<h2>收入增長緩慢，反壟斷風險</h2>
<p>蘋果在 10 月底公佈了其 2024 財年第四季度和全年財報。這家 iPhone 製造商在這一季度首次實現了收入增長，同比增長 6%，達到 950 億美元。這主要得益於 iPhone 的銷售和公司盈利豐厚的軟件服務部門。在整個財年中，軟件服務收入達到 960 億美元，較去年 85 億美元有所增長。</p>
<p>這一季度的增長強勁，但與過去幾年其他大型科技公司相比，蘋果的收入依然疲軟。其收入和自由現金流仍低於 2022 年中期的峯值。其大型科技同行 <strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>微軟</strong> 在過去幾年中實現了比蘋果更為穩定和快速的收入增長。也許正是這種收入增長放緩導致巴菲特大幅減持了他的蘋果股份。</p>
<p>iPhone 仍然為蘋果帶來了可觀的業績。落後的則是其他部門。iPad 和可穿戴設備（手錶/耳機）在上一個財年收入出現下滑，而這些產品的推出時間比 iPhone 更晚。更糟糕的是，蘋果今年發佈了 Vision Pro。還記得那個怪物嗎？好吧，似乎很少有人記得，因為該產品對這家科技巨頭來説完全是個失敗和浪費。如今幾乎沒有人使用它。</p>
<p>另一個可能在巴菲特心中縈繞的風險是關於谷歌搜索的反壟斷訴訟。Alphabet 每年向蘋果支付約 200 億美元的費用，以使谷歌搜索成為蘋果設備上的默認搜索引擎。政府正在決定這是否應因反競爭擔憂而被視為非法。如果裁決對這些公司不利，蘋果可能會瞬間失去 200 億美元的年利潤。這是今年 1230 億美元運營收益中的一大塊。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29d9e5bffad61d93bf2f0d5d11bd2635.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29d9e5bffad61d93bf2f0d5d11bd2635.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>你應該跟隨巴菲特嗎？</h2>
<p>蘋果的業務有很多利弊。iPhone 和軟件服務推動了穩定的收益，但由於新產品線的需求疲軟以及針對谷歌搜索的反壟斷訴訟，存在一些下行風險。總體而言，我認為這並不會對巴菲特的決策產生太大影響。他相信——並多次表示——蘋果由於其出色的品牌和加入其硬件生態系統所帶來的轉換成本，擁有廣泛的護城河。</p>
<p>我認為巴菲特減持蘋果股份的主要原因是估值。截至目前，該股票的市盈率（P/E）約為 36，這對於一家低增長的企業來説是個高得離譜的倍數。當巴菲特購買蘋果時，其市盈率在 10 到 15 之間。今年早些時候，巴菲特提到他認為由於聯邦政府巨大的支出赤字，美國的企業税率將會上升。</p>
<p>你應該像巴菲特一樣減持蘋果嗎？如果這是像伯克希爾哈撒韋那樣的超大持倉（在某個時刻，它佔他股票投資組合的 50% 以上），那麼在這個膨脹的收益倍數下，跟隨巴菲特減持可能是明智的。然而，該公司仍然擁有強大的競爭優勢和優秀的品牌。只要情況如此，就沒有理由將你所有的持倉拋棄。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

蘋果

<p>沃倫·巴菲特的伯克希爾哈撒韋已減少在蘋果公司的持股，出售了大約 3 億股，較今年早些時候的近 4 億股有所下降。儘管如此，蘋果的股票在過去一年中上漲了約 25%。蘋果最近的財報顯示，收入增長了 6%，主要得益於 iPhone 的銷售，但整體增長仍落後於競爭對手。對收入增長緩慢、反壟斷風險和高估值的擔憂可能影響了巴菲特削減持倉的決定。投資者在這些發展背景下被建議考慮自己在蘋果的持倉</p>

<p><strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s (BRK.A)(BRK.B 0.71%) cash pile reached a record level in the third quarter. The company, run by investor Warren Buffett, keeps trimming its equity portfolio and is now sitting on close to $325 billion in cash on its balance sheet. While this does not necessarily mean Buffett is making a directional call on the stock market, the Oracle of Omaha is being more cautious with his investments today as the market shoots up to all-time highs. Be greedy when others are fearful, as he might say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>（BRK.A）（BRK.B 0.71%）的現金儲備在第三季度達到了創紀錄的水平。這家公司由投資者沃倫·巴菲特管理，持續削減其股票投資組合，目前在資產負債表上持有近 3250 億美元的現金。雖然這並不一定意味着巴菲特對股市做出了方向性的判斷，但這位奧馬哈的先知在市場飆升至歷史新高時對投資變得更加謹慎。正如他可能所説的那樣，“在別人恐懼時要貪婪。”</p>
</div><p>His largest source of raising cash has been <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.12%), which Buffett has consistently trimmed this year. He sold yet again in the third quarter, reducing the stake for Berkshire Hathaway to an estimated 300 million shares worth around $69.9 billion. Earlier in the year, he sold close to 400 million shares, which reduced the company's stake by around half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他籌集現金的最大來源是 <strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -0.12%），巴菲特今年一直在持續減持。他在第三季度再次出售，將伯克希爾哈撒韋的持股減少到約 3 億股，價值約 699 億美元。今年早些時候，他出售了近 4 億股，減少了公司約一半的持股。</p>
</div><p>Even as Buffett sold down Berkshire's Apple position, the stock kept climbing and has been up by around 25% in the last 12 months. Does that give other shareholders the opportunity to trim their positions in the technology giant at the right time? Let's take a closer look and investigate whether now is a good time to sell Apple stock from your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管巴菲特減持了伯克希爾的蘋果股份，但該股票仍在上漲，過去 12 個月上漲了約 25%。這是否給其他股東提供了在合適時機減持這家科技巨頭的機會？讓我們仔細看看，調查一下現在是否是從投資組合中出售蘋果股票的好時機。</p>
</div><h2>Slow revenue growth, antitrust risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收入增長緩慢，反壟斷風險</h2>
</div><p>Apple reported its Q4 and full fiscal 2024 earnings at the end of October. The maker of iPhones grew its revenue for the first time in a while during the quarter, up 6% year over year to $95 billion. This was driven by iPhone sales and the company's lucrative software services division. For the full fiscal year, software services revenue hit $96 billion, up from $85 billion a year prior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果在 10 月底公佈了其 2024 財年第四季度和全年財報。這家 iPhone 製造商在這一季度首次實現了收入增長，同比增長 6%，達到 950 億美元。這主要得益於 iPhone 的銷售和公司盈利豐厚的軟件服務部門。在整個財年中，軟件服務收入達到 960 億美元，較去年 85 億美元有所增長。</p>
</div><p>Growth was strong this quarter, but Apple's revenue has been anemic compared to the rest of the big technology companies over the last few years. Its revenue and free cash flow are still below their peaks at the midpoint of calendar 2022. Its big technology peers, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, have posted much more consistent and faster revenue growth than Apple in the last few years. Perhaps this revenue growth slowdown is why Buffett has greatly trimmed his Apple position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一季度的增長強勁，但與過去幾年其他大型科技公司相比，蘋果的收入依然疲軟。其收入和自由現金流仍低於 2022 年中期的峯值。其大型科技同行 <strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>微軟</strong> 在過去幾年中實現了比蘋果更為穩定和快速的收入增長。也許正是這種收入增長放緩導致巴菲特大幅減持了他的蘋果股份。</p>
</div><p>The iPhone is still putting up wonderful numbers for Apple. It is the other divisions that are lagging. The iPad and wearables (watches/headphones) segments saw declining revenue last fiscal year, and these are newer products than the iPhone. Even worse, Apple released the Vision Pro this year. Remember that monstrosity? Well, it seems that few people do, as the product has been a total flop and money waster for the tech giant. Few people are using it today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iPhone 仍然為蘋果帶來了可觀的業績。落後的則是其他部門。iPad 和可穿戴設備（手錶/耳機）在上一個財年收入出現下滑，而這些產品的推出時間比 iPhone 更晚。更糟糕的是，蘋果今年發佈了 Vision Pro。還記得那個怪物嗎？好吧，似乎很少有人記得，因為該產品對這家科技巨頭來説完全是個失敗和浪費。如今幾乎沒有人使用它。</p>
</div><p>Another risk that could be on Buffett's mind is the antitrust lawsuit over Google Search. Alphabet pays Apple an estimated $20 billion annual fee for Google Search to be the default search engine of choice on Apple devices. The government is deciding whether this should be made illegal due to anti-competition concerns. If the decision falls against the companies, Apple could see $20 billion in annual profits evaporate in an instant. That is a good chunk of the $123 billion in operating earnings generated this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個可能在巴菲特心中縈繞的風險是關於谷歌搜索的反壟斷訴訟。Alphabet 每年向蘋果支付約 200 億美元的費用，以使谷歌搜索成為蘋果設備上的默認搜索引擎。政府正在決定這是否應因反競爭擔憂而被視為非法。如果裁決對這些公司不利，蘋果可能會瞬間失去 200 億美元的年利潤。這是今年 1230 億美元運營收益中的一大塊。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29d9e5bffad61d93bf2f0d5d11bd2635.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29d9e5bffad61d93bf2f0d5d11bd2635.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Should you follow Buffett?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你應該跟隨巴菲特嗎？</h2>
</div><p>There are a lot of puts and takes with Apple's business. IPhone and software services are driving stable earnings, but there is some downside risk due to weak demand from any of its new product lines, along with the antitrust lawsuit against Google Search. On the whole, I don't think this factors too much in Buffett's decision-making. He believes -- and has said many times -- that Apple has a wide moat due to its fantastic brand and the switching costs that come with joining its hardware ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的業務有很多利弊。iPhone 和軟件服務推動了穩定的收益，但由於新產品線的需求疲軟以及針對谷歌搜索的反壟斷訴訟，存在一些下行風險。總體而言，我認為這並不會對巴菲特的決策產生太大影響。他相信——並多次表示——蘋果由於其出色的品牌和加入其硬件生態系統所帶來的轉換成本，擁有廣泛的護城河。</p>
</div><p>I believe the main reason Buffett has trimmed his Apple position is valuation. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of about 36 as of this writing, which is a nosebleed multiple for a low-growth business. When Buffett was buying Apple, it had a P/E of between 10 and 15. Buffett mentioned earlier this year that he felt corporate tax rates in the United States would go up due to the huge spending deficit of the federal government.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為巴菲特減持蘋果股份的主要原因是估值。截至目前，該股票的市盈率（P/E）約為 36，這對於一家低增長的企業來説是個高得離譜的倍數。當巴菲特購買蘋果時，其市盈率在 10 到 15 之間。今年早些時候，巴菲特提到他認為由於聯邦政府巨大的支出赤字，美國的企業税率將會上升。</p>
</div><p>Should you trim Apple along with Buffett? If it is an outsized position like at Berkshire Hathaway (at one point, it was over 50% of his stock portfolio), then it might be smart to trim at this inflated earnings multiple along with Buffett. However, the company still has a strong competitive advantage and a great brand. As long as that is the case, there's no reason to dump your entire position to the curb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你應該像巴菲特一樣減持蘋果嗎？如果這是像伯克希爾哈撒韋那樣的超大持倉（在某個時刻，它佔他股票投資組合的 50% 以上），那麼在這個膨脹的收益倍數下，跟隨巴菲特減持可能是明智的。然而，該公司仍然擁有強大的競爭優勢和優秀的品牌。只要情況如此，就沒有理由將你所有的持倉拋棄。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett Cuts His Stake in Apple (Again)

- 伯克希爾哈撒韋的現金儲備在第三季度創下新高，接近 1000 億美元。  
- 巴菲特持續削減蘋果股份，第三季度持股降至約 3 億股。  
- 蘋果面臨收入增長放緩和反壟斷風險，但仍具競爭優勢。  

沃倫·巴菲特再次減持了他在蘋果公司的股份