<p><strong>開市客</strong>(COST 3.27%) 和 <strong>家得寶</strong>(HD 1.62%) 是全球最大的零售商之一。自 1980 年代各自首次公開募股以來，它們在回報股東方面表現出色，長期複合資本增長。</p>
<p>但是，這兩隻零售股票中哪一隻現在更值得購買呢？讓我們仔細看看每一隻，以得出一個明智的結論。</p>
<h2>支持開市客的理由</h2>
<p>開市客以以非常低的價格銷售高質量商品而聞名，並且擁有非常慷慨的客户友好退貨政策。從表面上看，這並沒有使其在競爭激烈的零售行業中脱穎而出。但開市客特別之處在於其基於會員的模式。只有支付年費的消費者才有權在開市客的 861 個倉庫中購物。</p>
<p>在最新的財政年度（截至 9 月 1 日），該業務產生了 48 億美元的會員費收入。這為公司提供了高利潤、可預測和持續的收入來源。更好的是，它推動了客户忠誠度。家庭會優先選擇在開市客購物，因為他們已經支付了年費。</p>
<p>開市客在零售行業中擁有非常強大和持久的競爭優勢。公司具備規模優勢。在第四季度，淨銷售額達到 782 億美元，成為全球第三大零售商。這個巨大的數字，加上開市客銷售的庫存單位數量遠低於競爭對手，使其在與供應商的談判中擁有巨大的槓桿。這導致消費者始終享有低價。</p>
<p>開市客的盈利能力令人印象深刻。過去五年，該業務的淨收入以 15% 的複合年增長率增長。這使得管理團隊能夠支付偶爾的特別股息，最近一次是在今年 1 月每位股東支付 15 美元。</p>
<h2>支持家得寶的理由</h2>
<p>家得寶以 1520 億美元的過去 12 個月收入成為全球領先的家居改善零售商，遠超第二名的 <strong>Lowe's</strong>。它是一個值得信賴的品牌，覆蓋廣泛，擁有超過 2000 家遍佈美國的門店。此外，家得寶的巨大規模、完善的供應鏈和全渠道能力，不僅使其擁有豐富的產品種類，還能以最方便的方式為客户提供服務。</p>
<p>不可否認的是，家得寶在當前的宏觀環境中面臨挑戰，利率上升和消費者對大宗商品購買的猶豫是其主要特徵。預計同店銷售在當前財政年度將下降 3% 至 4%。</p>
<p>然而，該業務受益於有利的行業順風，諸如老化的住房存量和持續的住房庫存短缺。這應該在長期內支持家得寶的穩定需求。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，該公司的資本配置政策頗具吸引力。在 2023 財政年度，家得寶回購了近 80 億美元的股票，並支付了 84 億美元的股息。</p>
<h2>現在哪個更值得購買？</h2>
<p>家得寶可能處於比開市客更困難的境地，後者似乎在宏觀環境下依然運轉良好。然而，家居改善巨頭的估值更具吸引力。其股票的市盈率 (P/E) 為 27，不到開市客 57 的一半。事實上，開市客的市盈率在本世紀從未如此之高，清楚地表明市場對這家倉儲俱樂部運營商的極度樂觀。</p>
<p>我認為，計劃以三到五年的時間範圍買入並持有股票的投資者，通過選擇家得寶將增加獲得足夠回報的機會。我相信其財務表現將回歸歷史趨勢。同時，開市客的高市盈率為投資回報創造了重大阻力。</p>

開市客

家得寶

<p>開市客和家得寶是兩家領先的零售商，各自擁有獨特的優勢。開市客的會員模式產生了可預測的收入並促進了客户忠誠度，而家得寶作為頂尖的家居改善零售商，面臨高利率帶來的挑戰，但受益於行業趨勢。儘管開市客的盈利能力和增長令人印象深刻，家得寶以較低的市盈率提供了更具吸引力的估值。對於長期投資者而言，家得寶由於其財務復甦的潛力，可能提供更好的回報，而開市客的高估值則帶來了風險</p>

<p><strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST 3.27%) and <strong>Home Depot</strong>(HD 1.62%) are two of the largest retailers on the planet. Since their respective initial public offerings in the 1980s, they have done a great job rewarding their shareholders, compounding capital over the very long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>開市客</strong>(COST 3.27%) 和 <strong>家得寶</strong>(HD 1.62%) 是全球最大的零售商之一。自 1980 年代各自首次公開募股以來，它們在回報股東方面表現出色，長期複合資本增長。</p>
</div><p>But which of these two retail stocks is the better one to buy right now? Let's take a closer look at each to come up with an informed conclusion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，這兩隻零售股票中哪一隻現在更值得購買呢？讓我們仔細看看每一隻，以得出一個明智的結論。</p>
</div><h2>The case for Costco</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>支持開市客的理由</h2>
</div><p>Costco is known for selling high-quality merchandise at very low prices, with a very generous customer-friendly return policy. On the surface, this doesn't help it stand out in the competitive retail sector. But what makes Costco special is its membership-based model. Only consumers who pay an annual fee have the right to shop at one of Costco's 861 warehouses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客以以非常低的價格銷售高質量商品而聞名，並且擁有非常慷慨的客户友好退貨政策。從表面上看，這並沒有使其在競爭激烈的零售行業中脱穎而出。但開市客特別之處在於其基於會員的模式。只有支付年費的消費者才有權在開市客的 861 個倉庫中購物。</p>
</div><p>In the latest fiscal year (ended Sept. 1), the business generated $4.8 billion in membership fee income. This provides the company with a high-margin, predictable, and recurring revenue stream. Even better, it drives customer loyalty. Households will prioritize shopping at Costco because they're already paying annual dues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最新的財政年度（截至 9 月 1 日），該業務產生了 48 億美元的會員費收入。這為公司提供了高利潤、可預測和持續的收入來源。更好的是，它推動了客户忠誠度。家庭會優先選擇在開市客購物，因為他們已經支付了年費。</p>
</div><p>Costco has a very powerful and durable competitive strength in the retail sector. The company possesses scale advantages. With net sales totaling $78.2 billion in Q4, this is the world's third-biggest retailer. That huge figure, coupled with the fact that Costco sells a much lower number of stock-keeping units than competitors, gives it tremendous negotiating leverage with its suppliers. This leads to constantly low prices for consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客在零售行業中擁有非常強大和持久的競爭優勢。公司具備規模優勢。在第四季度，淨銷售額達到 782 億美元，成為全球第三大零售商。這個巨大的數字，加上開市客銷售的庫存單位數量遠低於競爭對手，使其在與供應商的談判中擁有巨大的槓桿。這導致消費者始終享有低價。</p>
</div><p>It's hard not to come away impressed with Costco's profitability. The business has increased its net income at a compound annual rate of 15% in the past five years. This affords the leadership team the ability to pay occasional special dividends, the most recent being $15 for each shareholder in January of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客的盈利能力令人印象深刻。過去五年，該業務的淨收入以 15% 的複合年增長率增長。這使得管理團隊能夠支付偶爾的特別股息，最近一次是在今年 1 月每位股東支付 15 美元。</p>
</div><h2>The case for Home Depot</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>支持家得寶的理由</h2>
</div><p>With trailing-12-month revenue of $152 billion, Home Depot is the world's leading home improvement retailer, well ahead of second-place <strong>Lowe's</strong>. It is a trusted brand with broad reach, as indicated by its network of over 2,000 stores scattered across the U.S. Plus, Home Depot's massive scale, with a developed supply chain and omnichannel capabilities, means it not only has a deep product assortment, but also has the ability to serve customers in ways most convenient for them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得寶以 1520 億美元的過去 12 個月收入成為全球領先的家居改善零售商，遠超第二名的 <strong>Lowe's</strong>。它是一個值得信賴的品牌，覆蓋廣泛，擁有超過 2000 家遍佈美國的門店。此外，家得寶的巨大規模、完善的供應鏈和全渠道能力，不僅使其擁有豐富的產品種類，還能以最方便的方式為客户提供服務。</p>
</div><p>There's no denying that Home Depot has struggled in the current macro landscape, one characterized by higher interest rates and consumer hesitancy to buy big-ticket items. Same-store sales are expected to drop 3% to 4% in the current fiscal year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不可否認的是，家得寶在當前的宏觀環境中面臨挑戰，利率上升和消費者對大宗商品購買的猶豫是其主要特徵。預計同店銷售在當前財政年度將下降 3% 至 4%。</p>
</div><p>However, the business benefits from favorable industry tailwinds, like an aging housing stock and an ongoing housing inventory shortage. This should support durable demand for Home Depot over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，該業務受益於有利的行業順風，諸如老化的住房存量和持續的住房庫存短缺。這應該在長期內支持家得寶的穩定需求。</p>
</div><p>It's also worth noting the company's attractive capital allocation policy. In fiscal 2023, Home Depot repurchased almost $8 billion worth of shares. And it paid out $8.4 billion in dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，該公司的資本配置政策頗具吸引力。在 2023 財政年度，家得寶回購了近 80 億美元的股票，並支付了 84 億美元的股息。</p>
</div><h2>Which is the better buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在哪個更值得購買？</h2>
</div><p>Home Depot might be in a more difficult spot than Costco, the latter of which seems to be humming along nicely regardless of the macro environment. However, the home improvement giant trades at a much more compelling valuation. Its stock can be purchased for a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27, less than half that of Costco's 57. In fact, Costco's steep P/E multiple has never been higher this century, a clear indication of the market's extreme optimism surrounding the warehouse club operator.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得寶可能處於比開市客更困難的境地，後者似乎在宏觀環境下依然運轉良好。然而，家居改善巨頭的估值更具吸引力。其股票的市盈率 (P/E) 為 27，不到開市客 57 的一半。事實上，開市客的市盈率在本世紀從未如此之高，清楚地表明市場對這家倉儲俱樂部運營商的極度樂觀。</p>
</div><p>Investors who plan to buy and hold stocks with a three- to five-year time horizon will increase their chances of producing adequate returns by choosing Home Depot, in my opinion. I have confidence that its financial performance will revert back to historical trends. At the same time, Costco's high P/E ratio creates a major headwind for investment returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為，計劃以三到五年的時間範圍買入並持有股票的投資者，通過選擇家得寶將增加獲得足夠回報的機會。我相信其財務表現將回歸歷史趨勢。同時，開市客的高市盈率為投資回報創造了重大阻力。</p>
</div>

目前最值得購買的股票：開市客 vs. 家得寶