<p>人工智能（AI）為許多企業注入了新的活力，使科技公司能夠提升現有產品和服務，並找到新的增長方式。投資者急於投資那些利用這些機會的股票。科技巨頭 <strong>Microsoft</strong>（MSFT 0.51%）就是一個很好的例子。</p>
<p>隨着新推出的 AI 產品帶來了更強的銷售和利潤，該公司的增長在最近幾個季度加速。目前，該公司的市值為 3.1 萬億美元，因為對 AI 的投資似乎為企業帶來了回報，至少目前是這樣。</p>
<p>但是，如果仔細查看該公司最近的財報，你會發現一個需要密切關注的趨勢。因為如果這種趨勢持續下去，可能會在不久的將來給這隻科技股帶來麻煩。</p>
<h2>利潤增長放緩</h2>
<p>如今，許多參與 AI 的公司面臨的一個重大挑戰是，他們在積極支出，不僅是為了發展新的 AI 項目，還為了推廣和營銷這些項目。而且，回報並不總是對投資者顯而易見。</p>
<p>在 Microsoft 最近的財報中，截至 9 月 30 日的期間，其淨利潤增長約為 11%。這比之前的增長速度要慢，也慢於收入的增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7f794bd78a39419062bd04c6f8c9ea40.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7f794bd78a39419062bd04c6f8c9ea40.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT 淨收入（季度同比增長），數據來源於 YCharts；YOY = 年同比。</p>
<p>有警告跡象表明，該公司的 AI 可能並沒有那麼令人印象深刻。<strong>Salesforce</strong> 首席執行官 Marc Benioff 將 Microsoft 的 AI 產品 Copilot 與該科技巨頭在 1990 年代推出的助手 Clippy 進行了比較，後者因其干擾性大於幫助性而聲名狼藉。</p>
<p>根據最近的一項 CNBC 調查，大約一半表示正在使用 Copilot 的公司，要麼對是否將其部署給所有員工猶豫不決，要麼仍在測試該產品。這並不是投資者和分析師所希望的那種一帆風順的產品。</p>
<h2>如果增長率進一步下降，Microsoft 的股票可能看起來更貴</h2>
<p>Microsoft 的股票交易價格約為其過去收益的 35 倍，這並不算特別昂貴，因為 <strong>科技精選行業 SPDR 基金</strong> 的平均股票目前的倍數接近 42 倍。但由於今年強勁的盈利數字，科技股的估值一直處於高位，如果它們的增長放緩，這些高估值股票可能會面臨修正，而 Microsoft 也不例外。</p>
<p>技術研究公司 <strong>Gartner</strong> 之前預測，許多公司可能最終會放棄 AI 項目，因為他們難以證明這些項目的價值。Gartner 認為，到明年年底，最多有 30% 的生成性 AI 項目將被放棄。</p>
<p>隨着可能的經濟衰退臨近，公司縮減不必要的支出，AI 投資可能會受到衝擊，成為削減成本的易受攻擊目標。</p>
<p>如果那種情況發生，Microsoft 明年可能面臨更大的逆風，這可能會導致其盈利增長率進一步放緩。投資者似乎已經對該股票感到不安：截至週一，其年初至今的漲幅僅為 11%——遠低於 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 今年令人印象深刻的 26% 的增值。</p>
<h2>你應該購買 Microsoft 嗎？</h2>
<p>如果你在尋找一隻至少可以持有幾年的股票，Microsoft 仍然可以是一個優秀的投資。該業務穩健，擁有多個不同的業務板塊，包括遊戲和雲計算，這可以確保其在長期內繼續增長；這不僅僅是一隻 AI 股票。</p>
<p>但考慮到其高估值和伴隨這種溢價的增長預期，想要購買該股票的投資者應該為短期內可能的修正做好準備。這不是一隻便宜的股票，目前幾乎沒有安全邊際。</p>

微軟

<p>微軟最近的財報顯示出一個令人擔憂的趨勢：利潤增長放緩，僅增長了 11%，低於收入增長。儘管市場市值強勁且在人工智能方面進行了投資，但對其人工智能產品 Copilot 的有效性產生了擔憂。分析師警告稱，如果增長持續下降，微軟的股票（目前交易價格為過去 12 個月盈利的 35 倍）可能面臨修正。隨着潛在的人工智能項目被放棄和即將到來的經濟衰退，投資者應保持謹慎，因為年初至今的收益顯著低於標準普爾 500 指數的表現</p>

<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) has reenergized many businesses, allowing tech companies to enhance existing products and services and find new ways to grow their operations. Investors have been eager to jump on stocks that are taking advantage of these opportunities. Tech giant <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.51%) is an excellent example of that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能（AI）為許多企業注入了新的活力，使科技公司能夠提升現有產品和服務，並找到新的增長方式。投資者急於投資那些利用這些機會的股票。科技巨頭 <strong>Microsoft</strong>（MSFT 0.51%）就是一個很好的例子。</p>
</div><p>Its growth has accelerated in recent quarters as new AI-infused products are resulting in stronger sales and profits. Today, the company has a market cap of $3.1 trillion as investing into AI appeared to pay off for the business, at least for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着新推出的 AI 產品帶來了更強的銷售和利潤，該公司的增長在最近幾個季度加速。目前，該公司的市值為 3.1 萬億美元，因為對 AI 的投資似乎為企業帶來了回報，至少目前是這樣。</p>
</div><p>But if you take a closer look at the company's recent earnings report, there is a trend you'll want to keep a close eye on. Because if it continues, it could lead to trouble for the tech stock in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，如果仔細查看該公司最近的財報，你會發現一個需要密切關注的趨勢。因為如果這種趨勢持續下去，可能會在不久的將來給這隻科技股帶來麻煩。</p>
</div><h2>Profit growth is slowing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利潤增長放緩</h2>
</div><p>A big challenge for many companies involved with AI these days is they are spending aggressively to not just grow their new AI initiatives but to also promote and market them. And the payoff isn't always evident to investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，許多參與 AI 的公司面臨的一個重大挑戰是，他們在積極支出，不僅是為了發展新的 AI 項目，還為了推廣和營銷這些項目。而且，回報並不總是對投資者顯而易見。</p>
</div><p>In Microsoft's most recent earnings report, for the period ended Sept. 30, its bottom line grew by around 11%. That's slower than in previous periods, and it's also slower than revenue increased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Microsoft 最近的財報中，截至 9 月 30 日的期間，其淨利潤增長約為 11%。這比之前的增長速度要慢，也慢於收入的增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7f794bd78a39419062bd04c6f8c9ea40.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7f794bd78a39419062bd04c6f8c9ea40.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT net income (quarterly YoY growth), data by YCharts; YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSFT 淨收入（季度同比增長），數據來源於 YCharts；YOY = 年同比。</p>
</div><p>There are warning signs that the company's AI may not be all that impressive. <strong>Salesforce</strong> CEO Marc Benioff has compared Microsoft's AI product, Copilot, to an assistant the tech giant introduced in the 1990s, Clippy, which gained a reputation for being more intrusive than helpful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有警告跡象表明，該公司的 AI 可能並沒有那麼令人印象深刻。<strong>Salesforce</strong> 首席執行官 Marc Benioff 將 Microsoft 的 AI 產品 Copilot 與該科技巨頭在 1990 年代推出的助手 Clippy 進行了比較，後者因其干擾性大於幫助性而聲名狼藉。</p>
</div><p>And according to a recent CNBC survey, roughly half of companies that said they are using Copilot are either on the fence about whether to deploy it to all their employees, or they are still testing the product. It hasn't been the slam-dunk offering that investors and analysts may have been hoping it would be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據最近的一項 CNBC 調查，大約一半表示正在使用 Copilot 的公司，要麼對是否將其部署給所有員工猶豫不決，要麼仍在測試該產品。這並不是投資者和分析師所希望的那種一帆風順的產品。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft's stock could look even more expensive if its growth rate declines further</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果增長率進一步下降，Microsoft 的股票可能看起來更貴</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft's stock is trading at around 35 times its trailing earnings, which isn't terribly expensive given that the average stock in the <strong>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund</strong> is at a multiple of nearly 42 right now. But tech stocks have been at inflated valuations due to their strong earnings numbers this year, and should they slow down, there could be a correction around the corner for these highly valued stocks -- and Microsoft is no exception.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Microsoft 的股票交易價格約為其過去收益的 35 倍，這並不算特別昂貴，因為 <strong>科技精選行業 SPDR 基金</strong> 的平均股票目前的倍數接近 42 倍。但由於今年強勁的盈利數字，科技股的估值一直處於高位，如果它們的增長放緩，這些高估值股票可能會面臨修正，而 Microsoft 也不例外。</p>
</div><p>Technological research company <strong>Gartner</strong> previously forecast that many companies may end up abandoning AI projects as they struggle to prove that the initiatives are worthwhile. Gartner believes that as many as 30% of generative AI projects will end up abandoned by the end of next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技術研究公司 <strong>Gartner</strong> 之前預測，許多公司可能最終會放棄 AI 項目，因為他們難以證明這些項目的價值。Gartner 認為，到明年年底，最多有 30% 的生成性 AI 項目將被放棄。</p>
</div><p>With a possible recession on the horizon and companies scaling back unnecessary expenditures, AI investments could come under fire and be easy targets for cost reductions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着可能的經濟衰退臨近，公司縮減不必要的支出，AI 投資可能會受到衝擊，成為削減成本的易受攻擊目標。</p>
</div><p>Should that happen, Microsoft may face even greater headwinds next year, and that could be problematic because it may result in an even slower earnings growth rate. Investors already appear to be apprehensive about the stock: Its year-to-date gains as of Monday were just 11% -- well below the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s impressive 26% increase in value this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果那種情況發生，Microsoft 明年可能面臨更大的逆風，這可能會導致其盈利增長率進一步放緩。投資者似乎已經對該股票感到不安：截至週一，其年初至今的漲幅僅為 11%——遠低於 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 今年令人印象深刻的 26% 的增值。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Microsoft?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你應該購買 Microsoft 嗎？</h2>
</div><p>If you're looking for a stock to hold for at least a few years, Microsoft can still be an excellent investment. The business is robust and has many different segments, including gaming and cloud computing, which can ensure it continues growing over the very long haul; this isn't just an AI stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在尋找一隻至少可以持有幾年的股票，Microsoft 仍然可以是一個優秀的投資。該業務穩健，擁有多個不同的業務板塊，包括遊戲和雲計算，這可以確保其在長期內繼續增長；這不僅僅是一隻 AI 股票。</p>
</div><p>But given its inflated valuation and the growth expectations that come with such premiums, investors who want to buy the stock should be prepared for a possible correction in the near term. This isn't a cheap stock, and there isn't much margin of safety -- if any -- right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但考慮到其高估值和伴隨這種溢價的增長預期，想要購買該股票的投資者應該為短期內可能的修正做好準備。這不是一隻便宜的股票，目前幾乎沒有安全邊際。</p>
</div>

Microsoft's Latest Earnings Highlight a Concerning Trend for the Stock

- 人工智能推動微軟等科技公司增長，但盈利增速放緩。
- 微軟最新財報顯示淨利潤增長 11%，低於收入增幅。
- 投資者需警惕高估值和潛在的市場修正風險。

微軟最新的財報突顯了一個令人擔憂的股票趨勢