<p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA -1.29%) 股票的輝煌漲勢將在半導體巨頭於 11 月 20 日發佈其 2025 財年第三季度業績（截至 10 月 27 日的三個月）時受到考驗，因為投資者和分析師預計這家芯片製造商將繼續其由人工智能（AI）推動的增長。</p>
<p>畢竟，截至目前，英偉達的股價在 2024 年已經上漲了驚人的 196%，並且其估值相當高。在本文中，我將回顧英偉達在發佈之前四個季度業績後的表現，然後再看看投資者在其下一組業績發佈時可能面臨的情況。</p>
<h2>投資者對英偉達業績的反應在過去四個季度中各不相同</h2>
<p>下表總結了市場對英偉達之前四個季度報告的即時反應。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>日期</strong></th>
<th><strong>期間</strong></th>
<th><strong>收入（十億美元）</strong></th>
<th><strong>同比變化</strong></th>
<th><strong>每股收益</strong></th>
<th><strong>同比變化</strong></th>
<th><strong>即時股價變化</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2023 年 11 月 21 日</td>
<td>2024 財年第三季度</td>
<td>$18</td>
<td>206%</td>
<td>$4.02</td>
<td>593%</td>
<td>-2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023 年 2 月 21 日</td>
<td>2024 財年第四季度</td>
<td>$22</td>
<td>265%</td>
<td>$5.16</td>
<td>486%</td>
<td>+16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 年 5 月 22 日</td>
<td>2025 財年第一季度</td>
<td>$26</td>
<td>262%</td>
<td>$6.12</td>
<td>461%</td>
<td>+9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 年 8 月 28 日</td>
<td>2025 財年第二季度</td>
<td>$30</td>
<td>122%</td>
<td>$0.68</td>
<td>152%</td>
<td>-6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>來源：英偉達季度財報和雅虎財經歷史價格數據。</p>
<p>當英偉達一年前發佈其 2024 財年第三季度業績時，由於美國政府對向中國出口的限制，市場對該公司在中國的業務表示擔憂，導致股價下跌。市場忽視了當時公司超出預期的業績和令人印象深刻的指引。</p>
<p>然而，接下來的兩個季度報告為英偉達的股價帶來了良好的提振，因為公司在收入和盈利方面繼續保持健康增長，得益於對其人工智能圖形處理單元（GPU）的強勁需求。然而，當英偉達在今年 8 月發佈其上一季度業績時，投資者似乎對公司報告的相對較慢的增長速度表示不滿。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，英偉達在 2025 財年第二季度的收入增長較之前三個季度有所放緩。當然，公司在同比基礎上收入增長超過一倍，盈利也大幅上漲，但到那時，華爾街已經習慣了更強勁的收入和盈利增長。</p>
<p>此外，英偉達預計 2025 財年第三季度收入為 325 億美元，這將意味着同比增長近 80%。因此，芯片製造商的指引表明，其收入在發佈結果時不會是去年的兩倍。然而，更大的圖景是，考慮到季度業績發佈後股價的即時波動，英偉達的股價在過去一年中已經翻了三倍。</p>
<p>這並不令人驚訝，因為最近的市場發展清楚表明，該公司仍然是人工智能芯片的主導者，而這一市場沒有放緩的跡象。因此，投資者在英偉達發佈季度報告時，應該關注更大的圖景。</p>
<h2>更大的圖景是什麼樣的</h2>
<p>考慮到英偉達現在有了更高的收入基礎，其增長相較於之前幾個季度的放緩是合乎邏輯的。即便如此，季度收入增長 80% 也不是一件小事，尤其是考慮到競爭對手如 <strong>AMD</strong> 在人工智能芯片市場上難以取得顯著進展，並且在從英偉達手中奪取市場份額方面面臨困難。</p>
<p>例如，AMD 在 2024 年第三季度的收入同比增長 18%，達到 68 億美元。該公司的數據中心業務收入同比增長 122%，達到 35 億美元。這與英偉達在 2025 財年第二季度數據中心收入同比增長 154%，達到 263 億美元相比，顯得微不足道。</p>
<p>換句話説，儘管英偉達的收入基礎更大，但其增長速度仍快於 AMD。這是因為該公司是人工智能芯片的主要供應商，市場份額高達 95%。更重要的是，隨着對英偉達新一代 Blackwell AI 處理器的需求預計將在 2025 年超過供應，這種主導地位似乎將繼續下去，這並不令人驚訝，因為這些芯片預計將保持其在技術上的優勢，超越 AMD 的產品。</p>
<p>分析師對英偉達的 Blackwell 處理器的銷售持樂觀態度，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong>（通過 Tom's Hardware）的報告表明，該公司明年可能銷售價值 2000 億美元的這些芯片。如果真是如此，英偉達在下一個財年的收入可能會遠超預期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c54a74cc981a218902817207cc6bff3b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c54a74cc981a218902817207cc6bff3b.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 當前財年收入預估數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>根據上述圖表，英偉達的收入預計將在 2025 財年超過去年的 609 億美元，翻一番。分析師預測下一個財年其收入將再增長 43%，但對 Blackwell 的強勁需求可能會幫助其輕鬆超過這一數字。</p>
<p>因此，如果英偉達因其 Blackwell 處理器的成功推出而對當前季度給出超出預期的前景，這可能為這隻人工智能股票在經歷了今年的巨大漲幅後，進一步上漲奠定基礎。</p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

<p>Nvidia 的股票表現受到關注，因為它準備在 11 月 20 日發佈 2025 財年第三季度的業績。該公司在 2024 年股價增長了驚人的 196%，但對過去季度業績的反應卻褒貶不一。儘管 Nvidia 的收入增長依然強勁，但增長放緩引發了投資者的擔憂。儘管如此，Nvidia 在人工智能芯片市場依然佔據主導地位，與 AMD 等競爭對手相比，市場份額和收入增長都十分可觀。投資者被建議關注整體增長軌跡，而非短期波動</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.29%) stock's stellar rally is set to be tested when the semiconductor giant releases its fiscal 2025 third-quarter results (for the three months ended Oct. 27) on Nov. 20, as investors and analysts will be expecting the chipmaker to continue its artificial intelligence (AI)-fueled surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA -1.29%) 股票的輝煌漲勢將在半導體巨頭於 11 月 20 日發佈其 2025 財年第三季度業績（截至 10 月 27 日的三個月）時受到考驗，因為投資者和分析師預計這家芯片製造商將繼續其由人工智能（AI）推動的增長。</p>
</div><p>After all, shares of Nvidia have shot up a remarkable 196% so far in 2024, as of this writing, and they command a rich valuation. In this article, I will take a look at how Nvidia stock has performed following the release of its previous four quarterly results before checking what lies in store for investors when it releases its next set of results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>畢竟，截至目前，英偉達的股價在 2024 年已經上漲了驚人的 196%，並且其估值相當高。在本文中，我將回顧英偉達在發佈之前四個季度業績後的表現，然後再看看投資者在其下一組業績發佈時可能面臨的情況。</p>
</div><h2>Investors' reaction to Nvidia's results has been mixed in the last four quarters</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者對英偉達業績的反應在過去四個季度中各不相同</h2>
</div><p>The following chart summarizes the market's immediate reaction to Nvidia's previous four quarterly reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下表總結了市場對英偉達之前四個季度報告的即時反應。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>Date</strong></th>
<th><strong>Period</strong></th>
<th><strong>Revenue (in $billion)</strong></th>
<th><strong>Year-over-year change</strong></th>
<th><strong>Earnings per share</strong></th>
<th><strong>Year-over-year change</strong></th>
<th><strong>Immediate stock price change</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Nov. 21, 2023</td>
<td>Q3 FY2024</td>
<td>$18</td>
<td>206%</td>
<td>$4.02</td>
<td>593%</td>
<td>-2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Feb. 21, 2023</td>
<td>Q4 FY2024</td>
<td>$22</td>
<td>265%</td>
<td>$5.16</td>
<td>486%</td>
<td>+16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>May. 22, 2024</td>
<td>Q1 FY2025</td>
<td>$26</td>
<td>262%</td>
<td>$6.12</td>
<td>461%</td>
<td>+9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aug. 28, 2024</td>
<td>Q2 FY2025</td>
<td>$30</td>
<td>122%</td>
<td>$0.68</td>
<td>152%</td>
<td>-6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>日期</strong></th>
<th><strong>期間</strong></th>
<th><strong>收入（十億美元）</strong></th>
<th><strong>同比變化</strong></th>
<th><strong>每股收益</strong></th>
<th><strong>同比變化</strong></th>
<th><strong>即時股價變化</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2023 年 11 月 21 日</td>
<td>2024 財年第三季度</td>
<td>$18</td>
<td>206%</td>
<td>$4.02</td>
<td>593%</td>
<td>-2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023 年 2 月 21 日</td>
<td>2024 財年第四季度</td>
<td>$22</td>
<td>265%</td>
<td>$5.16</td>
<td>486%</td>
<td>+16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 年 5 月 22 日</td>
<td>2025 財年第一季度</td>
<td>$26</td>
<td>262%</td>
<td>$6.12</td>
<td>461%</td>
<td>+9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 年 8 月 28 日</td>
<td>2025 財年第二季度</td>
<td>$30</td>
<td>122%</td>
<td>$0.68</td>
<td>152%</td>
<td>-6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Source: Nvidia's quarterly earnings releases and Yahoo! Finance historical price data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：英偉達季度財報和雅虎財經歷史價格數據。</p>
</div><p>When Nvidia released its fiscal 2024 Q3 results a year ago, the stock fell thanks to concerns about the company's business in China on account of restrictions by the U.S. government on exports to the country. The market overlooked the company's better-than-expected results and impressive guidance at that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當英偉達一年前發佈其 2024 財年第三季度業績時，由於美國政府對向中國出口的限制，市場對該公司在中國的業務表示擔憂，導致股價下跌。市場忽視了當時公司超出預期的業績和令人印象深刻的指引。</p>
</div><p>However, the next two quarterly reports gave Nvidia stock a nice boost as the company continued its string of healthy growth in revenue and earnings thanks to the solid demand for its AI graphics processing units (GPUs). However, when Nvidia released its previous quarterly results in August this year, investors seemingly took issue with the relatively slower pace of growth that the company reported.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，接下來的兩個季度報告為英偉達的股價帶來了良好的提振，因為公司在收入和盈利方面繼續保持健康增長，得益於對其人工智能圖形處理單元（GPU）的強勁需求。然而，當英偉達在今年 8 月發佈其上一季度業績時，投資者似乎對公司報告的相對較慢的增長速度表示不滿。</p>
</div><p>It is worth noting that Nvidia's revenue growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 was a deceleration over the growth that it delivered in the previous three quarters. Of course, the company did more than double its revenue on a year-over-year basis, and its earnings also surged impressively, but Wall Street had gotten used to much stronger growth in its top and bottom lines by that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，英偉達在 2025 財年第二季度的收入增長較之前三個季度有所放緩。當然，公司在同比基礎上收入增長超過一倍，盈利也大幅上漲，但到那時，華爾街已經習慣了更強勁的收入和盈利增長。</p>
</div><p>On top of that, Nvidia guided for fiscal Q3 revenue of $32.5 billion, which would translate into a year-over-year increase of almost 80%. So, the chipmaker's guidance indicates that its top line won't be doubling from the year-ago period when it releases its results on Nov. 20. However, the bigger picture is that Nvidia stock has tripled in the past year after taking into account the immediate fluctuations in price following its quarterly results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，英偉達預計 2025 財年第三季度收入為 325 億美元，這將意味着同比增長近 80%。因此，芯片製造商的指引表明，其收入在發佈結果時不會是去年的兩倍。然而，更大的圖景是，考慮到季度業績發佈後股價的即時波動，英偉達的股價在過去一年中已經翻了三倍。</p>
</div><p>That's not surprising, as the recent market developments have made it clear that the company continues to remain the dominant player in AI chips, a market that's showing no signs of slowing down. Investors, therefore, would do well to focus on the bigger picture when Nvidia releases its quarterly report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不令人驚訝，因為最近的市場發展清楚表明，該公司仍然是人工智能芯片的主導者，而這一市場沒有放緩的跡象。因此，投資者在英偉達發佈季度報告時，應該關注更大的圖景。</p>
</div><h2>Here's what the bigger picture looks like</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更大的圖景是什麼樣的</h2>
</div><p>The relative slowdown in Nvidia's growth from the prior quarters is logical, considering that the company now has a much higher revenue base. Even then, an 80% jump in quarterly revenue is no mean feat, especially considering that rivals such as <strong>AMD</strong> have found it difficult to make a notable dent in the AI chip market and are having difficulty taking share away from Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到英偉達現在有了更高的收入基礎，其增長相較於之前幾個季度的放緩是合乎邏輯的。即便如此，季度收入增長 80% 也不是一件小事，尤其是考慮到競爭對手如 <strong>AMD</strong> 在人工智能芯片市場上難以取得顯著進展，並且在從英偉達手中奪取市場份額方面面臨困難。</p>
</div><p>For example, AMD's revenue in the third quarter of 2024 was up 18% year over year to $6.8 billion. The company's data center business recorded a year-over-year jump of 122% in revenue to $3.5 billion. That pales in comparison to the 154% year-over-year increase in Nvidia's data center revenue in fiscal Q2 to a massive $26.3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，AMD 在 2024 年第三季度的收入同比增長 18%，達到 68 億美元。該公司的數據中心業務收入同比增長 122%，達到 35 億美元。這與英偉達在 2025 財年第二季度數據中心收入同比增長 154%，達到 263 億美元相比，顯得微不足道。</p>
</div><p>In other words, Nvidia is growing at a faster pace than AMD despite having a larger revenue base. That's because the company is the leading supplier of AI chips, with a market share of as much as 95%. More importantly, that dominance seems set to continue as the demand for Nvidia's new generation of Blackwell AI processors is set to exceed supply in 2025, which is not surprising as these chips are expected to maintain their technological advantage over AMD's offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，儘管英偉達的收入基礎更大，但其增長速度仍快於 AMD。這是因為該公司是人工智能芯片的主要供應商，市場份額高達 95%。更重要的是，隨着對英偉達新一代 Blackwell AI 處理器的需求預計將在 2025 年超過供應，這種主導地位似乎將繼續下去，這並不令人驚訝，因為這些芯片預計將保持其在技術上的優勢，超越 AMD 的產品。</p>
</div><p>Analysts are upbeat about the sales of Nvidia's Blackwell processors, with a report by <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> (via Tom's Hardware) suggesting that the company could sell $200 billion worth of these chips next year. If that indeed happens, Nvidia's revenue in the next fiscal year could turn out to be well ahead of expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師對英偉達的 Blackwell 處理器的銷售持樂觀態度，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong>（通過 Tom's Hardware）的報告表明，該公司明年可能銷售價值 2000 億美元的這些芯片。如果真是如此，英偉達在下一個財年的收入可能會遠超預期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c54a74cc981a218902817207cc6bff3b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c54a74cc981a218902817207cc6bff3b.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 當前財年收入預估數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>As per the above chart, Nvidia's top line is expected to more than double in fiscal 2025 from last year's reading of $60.9 billion. Analysts are forecasting another jump of 43% in its revenue next fiscal year, but the strong demand for Blackwell could help it exceed that mark handsomely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據上述圖表，英偉達的收入預計將在 2025 財年超過去年的 609 億美元，翻一番。分析師預測下一個財年其收入將再增長 43%，但對 Blackwell 的強勁需求可能會幫助其輕鬆超過這一數字。</p>
</div><p>So, if Nvidia delivers a better-than-expected outlook for the current quarter on account of the successful launch of its Blackwell processors, it could set the stage for more upside in this AI stock even after the terrific gains it has clocked this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，如果英偉達因其 Blackwell 處理器的成功推出而對當前季度給出超出預期的前景，這可能為這隻人工智能股票在經歷了今年的巨大漲幅後，進一步上漲奠定基礎。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Has Done This After Its Last Four Quarterly Results. Here's What It May Do After Nov. 20

- Nvidia 將於 11 月 20 日發佈 2025 財年第三季度財報。  
- 投資者期待其 AI 驅動的增長持續，預計營收將同比增長近 80%。  
- 儘管增長放緩，Nvidia 仍在 AI 芯片市場佔據主導地位，市場份額高達 95%。

英偉達股票在過去四次季度財報後的表現。以下是它可能在 11 月 20 日之後的表現