<p><strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong>(^DJI 0.97%) 是一個價格加權指數，追蹤 30 家美國公司。雖然納入該指數並沒有嚴格的規則，但指數委員會傾向於選擇具有三種特質的股票：卓越的聲譽、持續的增長和廣泛的投資者關注。</p>
<p>在 11 月 8 日，半導體公司 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA -3.22%) 做了一件前所未有的事情：它加入了道瓊斯工業平均指數。<strong>舍温 - 威廉姆斯</strong> 同時被納入該指數，而芯片製造商 <strong>英特爾</strong> 和特種化學品生產商 <strong>陶氏</strong> 則被移除。</p>
<p>重要的是，雖然納入這一標誌性指數具有驗證意義，但對收入和盈利等商業基本面沒有影響。但股票在加入道瓊斯後的第一年通常會產生正回報。這對英偉達的股東意味着什麼呢？</p>
<h2><strong>歷史數據顯示英偉達的股票在未來 12 個月可能回報 12%</strong></h2>
<p>道瓊斯工業平均指數首次引入於 1896 年，自創立以來其組成變化不頻繁。除了英偉達和舍温 - 威廉姆斯，以及今年早些時候加入的 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>，最近的變化是在四年前，當時 <strong>安進</strong>、<strong>霍尼韋爾</strong>、<strong>Salesforce</strong> 和 <strong>RTX</strong>（前身為雷神科技）於 2020 年被納入該指數。</p>
<p>此外，除去今年新增的三家公司，過去 15 年中只有 14 家公司加入了道瓊斯。它們的股票在納入該指數後的 12 個月內回報中位數為 9%。我們可以將這些信息應用於英偉達，以對其未來幾個月的股票表現做出合理的猜測。</p>
<p>具體來説，英偉達在 11 月 8 日加入道瓊斯時，開盤價接近每股 149 美元。如果其股價上漲與歷史中位數完全一致，英偉達將在 2025 年 11 月以每股 162 美元交易。這意味着從當前 145 美元的股價來看，有 12% 的上漲空間。</p>
<p>歷史還提供了另一個有趣的見解。雖然最近 14 只股票在加入道瓊斯後的前 12 個月回報中位數為 9%，但 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.35%) 在同一時期的回報中位數為 17%。因此，大多數股票在加入道瓊斯後的 12 個月內表現不及標準普爾 500。</p>
<p>當然，英偉達未來的股價不能僅通過回顧歷史來確定。股票在未來一年（及更長時間）的表現取決於公司的財務結果和投資者情緒。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTg3MTcvZmluYW5jaWFscy04LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTg3MTcvZmluYW5jaWFscy04LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英偉達的人工智能專業知識涵蓋硬件和軟件</h2>
<p>英偉達的圖形處理單元（GPU）是加速複雜數據中心任務（如訓練機器學習模型和運行人工智能（AI）應用）的行業標準。事實上，<strong>Forrester Research</strong> 的分析師甚至寫道：&#34;沒有英偉達的 GPU，現代人工智能將不可能實現。&#34;</p>
<p>英偉達在第三季度報告了出色的財務業績，收入和盈利均超出預期。收入增長 94%，達到 350 億美元，非公認會計原則（GAAP）下的每股稀釋收益激增 103%，達到 0.81 美元。英偉達的收益已經連續六個季度以三位數的速度增長。當然，這一趨勢不可能無限持續，但投資者仍然有充分理由保持樂觀。</p>
<p>首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯在財報電話會議上強調了對 Hopper GPU 的強勁需求，表示 H200 的銷售速度比公司歷史上任何其他產品都要快。她還表示，下一代 Blackwell GPU 已全面生產，&#34;需求驚人&#34;。與 Hopper 相比，Blackwell 芯片在處理 AI 訓練任務時速度快四倍，在處理 AI 推理任務時速度快 30 倍。</p>
<p>克雷斯還討論了英偉達 AI 企業的強勁接受度，這是一個幫助企業構建和部署廣泛 AI 應用的軟件平台，從零售推薦系統到客户服務的對話代理。克雷斯告訴分析師，英偉達 AI 企業軟件的全年收入將在當前年度翻倍。她還表示，軟件和服務的收入將在年末達到超過 20 億美元的年化收入水平。</p>
<p>提到這些產品，我的目的是讓讀者意識到英偉達在硬件和軟件上實現 AI 貨幣化的關鍵優勢。確實，<strong>Jefferies</strong> 的布萊恩·柯蒂斯強調了這一競爭壁壘。他在給客户的報告中寫道：&#34;英偉達在硬件和軟件方面控制着生態系統，他們當前的新一代產品發佈節奏將進一步擴大這一領先優勢。&#34;</p>
<p>展望未來，華爾街預計英偉達的調整後收益將在 2027 財年（截至 2027 年 1 月）以每年 38% 的速度增長。這使得當前 56 倍的調整後收益估值顯得合理。誠然，華爾街對英偉達設定了較高的標準，如果公司未能達到這些預期，股價可能會大幅下跌。</p>
<p>即便如此，耐心的投資者如果能接受波動，應該考慮今天購買一些股票，儘管新加入道瓊斯的股票在歷史上在其加入後的第一年表現不及標準普爾 500。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達已加入道瓊斯工業平均指數，這標誌着這家半導體公司邁出了重要的一步。歷史上，加入道瓊斯的股票在其首年通常會實現 9% 的中位回報，而根據歷史趨勢，英偉達可能會看到 12% 的上漲。該公司報告稱，收入增長了 94%，盈利激增了 103%，這得益於對其 GPU 的強勁需求。分析師預測，英偉達的盈利將在 2027 財年之前每年增長 38%，這支持了其當前 56 倍調整後盈利的估值</p>

<p>The <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>(^DJI 0.97%) is a price-weighted index that tracks 30 U.S. companies. While inclusion is not based on strict rules, the index committee tends to select stocks that have three qualities: an excellent reputation, sustained growth, and widespread interest among investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong>(^DJI 0.97%) 是一個價格加權指數，追蹤 30 家美國公司。雖然納入該指數並沒有嚴格的規則，但指數委員會傾向於選擇具有三種特質的股票：卓越的聲譽、持續的增長和廣泛的投資者關注。</p>
</div><p>On Nov. 8, semiconductor company <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.22%) did something it has never done before: It joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average. <strong>Sherwin-Williams</strong> was added to the index at the same time, while chipmaker <strong>Intel</strong> and specialty chemicals producer <strong>Dow</strong> were removed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 11 月 8 日，半導體公司 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA -3.22%) 做了一件前所未有的事情：它加入了道瓊斯工業平均指數。<strong>舍温 - 威廉姆斯</strong> 同時被納入該指數，而芯片製造商 <strong>英特爾</strong> 和特種化學品生產商 <strong>陶氏</strong> 則被移除。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, while inclusion in the iconic index is validating, it has no bearing on business fundamentals like revenue and earnings. But stocks have generally produced positive returns during their first year in the Dow. Here's what that might mean for Nvidia shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，雖然納入這一標誌性指數具有驗證意義，但對收入和盈利等商業基本面沒有影響。但股票在加入道瓊斯後的第一年通常會產生正回報。這對英偉達的股東意味着什麼呢？</p>
</div><h2><strong>History says Nvidia's stock could return 12% over the next 12 months</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>歷史數據顯示英偉達的股票在未來 12 個月可能回報 12%</strong></h2>
</div><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average was first introduced in 1896, and its composition has changed infrequently since its inception. Apart from Nvidia and Sherwin-Williams, and the addition of <strong>Amazon</strong> earlier this year, the most recent changes were made four years ago, when <strong>Amgen</strong>, <strong>Honeywell</strong>, <strong>Salesforce</strong>, and <strong>RTX</strong> (formerly Raytheon Technologies) were added to the index in 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道瓊斯工業平均指數首次引入於 1896 年，自創立以來其組成變化不頻繁。除了英偉達和舍温 - 威廉姆斯，以及今年早些時候加入的 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>，最近的變化是在四年前，當時 <strong>安進</strong>、<strong>霍尼韋爾</strong>、<strong>Salesforce</strong> 和 <strong>RTX</strong>（前身為雷神科技）於 2020 年被納入該指數。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, excluding the three added this year, only 14 companies have joined the Dow Jones in the last 15 years. And their stocks returned a median of 9% during the 12-month period following their inclusion in the index. We can apply that information to Nvidia to make an educated guess about how the stock may perform in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，除去今年新增的三家公司，過去 15 年中只有 14 家公司加入了道瓊斯。它們的股票在納入該指數後的 12 個月內回報中位數為 9%。我們可以將這些信息應用於英偉達，以對其未來幾個月的股票表現做出合理的猜測。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, Nvidia traded near $149 per share when the market opened on Nov. 8, the day the company was added to the Dow Jones. If its share price appreciation aligns precisely with the historical median, Nvidia will trade at $162 per share in November 2025. That implies 12% upside from its current share price of $145.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具體來説，英偉達在 11 月 8 日加入道瓊斯時，開盤價接近每股 149 美元。如果其股價上漲與歷史中位數完全一致，英偉達將在 2025 年 11 月以每股 162 美元交易。這意味着從當前 145 美元的股價來看，有 12% 的上漲空間。</p>
</div><p>History also offers another interesting insight. While the last 14 stocks returned a median of 9% during their first 12 months in the Dow, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.35%) returned a median of 17% during the same period. So, most stocks have underperformed the S&amp;P 500 during the 12 months following their inclusion in the Dow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史還提供了另一個有趣的見解。雖然最近 14 只股票在加入道瓊斯後的前 12 個月回報中位數為 9%，但 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.35%) 在同一時期的回報中位數為 17%。因此，大多數股票在加入道瓊斯後的 12 個月內表現不及標準普爾 500。</p>
</div><p>Of course, Nvidia's future share price cannot be determined by looking backward. How the stock performs during the next year (and beyond) depends on the company's financial results and investor sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，英偉達未來的股價不能僅通過回顧歷史來確定。股票在未來一年（及更長時間）的表現取決於公司的財務結果和投資者情緒。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTg3MTcvZmluYW5jaWFscy04LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F798717%2Ffinancials-8.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's AI expertise spans hardware and software</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的人工智能專業知識涵蓋硬件和軟件</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) are the industry standard in accelerating complex data center tasks like training machine learning models and running artificial intelligence (AI) applications. In fact, analysts at <strong>Forrester Research</strong> went so far as to write, &#34;Without Nvidia's GPUs, modern AI wouldn't be possible.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的圖形處理單元（GPU）是加速複雜數據中心任務（如訓練機器學習模型和運行人工智能（AI）應用）的行業標準。事實上，<strong>Forrester Research</strong> 的分析師甚至寫道：&#34;沒有英偉達的 GPU，現代人工智能將不可能實現。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Nvidia reported excellent financial results in the third quarter, blowing by estimates on the top and bottom lines. Revenue increased 94% to $35 billion, and non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings surged 103% to $0.81 per diluted share. Nvidia's earnings have now increased at a triple-digit pace for six consecutive quarters. Of course, that trend cannot go on indefinitely, but investors still have good reason to be optimistic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達在第三季度報告了出色的財務業績，收入和盈利均超出預期。收入增長 94%，達到 350 億美元，非公認會計原則（GAAP）下的每股稀釋收益激增 103%，達到 0.81 美元。英偉達的收益已經連續六個季度以三位數的速度增長。當然，這一趨勢不可能無限持續，但投資者仍然有充分理由保持樂觀。</p>
</div><p>CFO Colette Kress on the earnings call highlighted strong demand for Hopper GPUs, saying that H200 sales have ramped more quickly than any other product in company history. She also said the next-generation Blackwell GPU is in full production, and that &#34;demand is staggering.&#34; Compared to Hopper, Blackwell chips can handle AI training tasks up to four times faster, and they can handle AI inference tasks up to 30 times faster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯在財報電話會議上強調了對 Hopper GPU 的強勁需求，表示 H200 的銷售速度比公司歷史上任何其他產品都要快。她還表示，下一代 Blackwell GPU 已全面生產，&#34;需求驚人&#34;。與 Hopper 相比，Blackwell 芯片在處理 AI 訓練任務時速度快四倍，在處理 AI 推理任務時速度快 30 倍。</p>
</div><p>Kress also discussed the strong uptake of Nvidia AI Enterprise, a software platform that helps businesses build and deploy a broad range of AI applications, from recommender systems for retail to conversational agents for customer service. Kress told analysts that full-year revenue from Nvidia AI Enterprise software would more than double in the current year. She also said software and services revenue would exit the year at an annual run rate exceeding $2 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克雷斯還討論了英偉達 AI 企業的強勁接受度，這是一個幫助企業構建和部署廣泛 AI 應用的軟件平台，從零售推薦系統到客户服務的對話代理。克雷斯告訴分析師，英偉達 AI 企業軟件的全年收入將在當前年度翻倍。她還表示，軟件和服務的收入將在年末達到超過 20 億美元的年化收入水平。</p>
</div><p>In mentioning all these products, my goal is to impress upon readers that Nvidia has a key advantage in its ability to monetize AI across hardware and software. Indeed, Blayne Curtis at <strong>Jefferies</strong> highlighted that competitive moat. &#34;Nvidia is in control of the ecosystem on both the hardware and software front, and their current cadence of new generations should make that lead only growth further,&#34; he wrote in a note to clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>提到這些產品，我的目的是讓讀者意識到英偉達在硬件和軟件上實現 AI 貨幣化的關鍵優勢。確實，<strong>Jefferies</strong> 的布萊恩·柯蒂斯強調了這一競爭壁壘。他在給客户的報告中寫道：&#34;英偉達在硬件和軟件方面控制着生態系統，他們當前的新一代產品發佈節奏將進一步擴大這一領先優勢。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Wall Street estimates Nvidia's adjusted earnings will grow at 38% annually through fiscal 2027, which ends in January 2027. That makes the current valuation of 56 times adjusted earnings look reasonable. Admittedly, Wall Street has set Nvidia with a high bar, and the stock could plunge if the company fails to meet those expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，華爾街預計英偉達的調整後收益將在 2027 財年（截至 2027 年 1 月）以每年 38% 的速度增長。這使得當前 56 倍的調整後收益估值顯得合理。誠然，華爾街對英偉達設定了較高的標準，如果公司未能達到這些預期，股價可能會大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Even so, patient investors comfortable with volatility should consider buying a few shares today, even though new Dow Jones stocks have historically underperformed the S&amp;P 500 during their first year in the index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便如此，耐心的投資者如果能接受波動，應該考慮今天購買一些股票，儘管新加入道瓊斯的股票在歷史上在其加入後的第一年表現不及標準普爾 500。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Just Did Something It Has Never Done Before. History Says the AI Stock Could Do This Next.

- 道瓊斯工業平均指數新增英偉達和舍温 - 威廉姆斯，移除英特爾和陶氏。  
- 英偉達股價在加入後可能上漲 12%，歷史數據顯示新股回報率為 9%。  
- 英偉達在 AI 領域具備優勢，預計 2027 財年調整後收益年增 38%。

英偉達股票剛剛創下了前所未有的記錄。歷史表明，這隻 AI 股票接下來可能會有這樣的表現