<p>利率對房地產行業的影響非常顯著。公司和個人通常借款來資助任何房地產投資的很大一部分。隨着利率上升，借款資金以資助新交易的成本變得更高，而較高的利率通常會對房地產價值產生壓力。</p>
<p>然而，在近年來為了應對通貨膨脹而保持高利率後，聯邦儲備委員會已經開始降低聯邦基金利率。它目前預計將在未來幾個月繼續降低利率。雖然這應該對整個房地產行業產生積極影響，但一些股票可能會從下降的利率中獲得更大的好處。其中之一是 <strong>EPR 房地產</strong>(EPR -0.83%)。以下是如果美聯儲繼續降息，這家房地產投資信託基金（REIT）可能會成為贏家的原因。</p>
<h2>近年來面臨的逆風</h2>
<p>EPR 房地產是一家專注於擁有體驗式房地產的專業 REIT，例如電影院、餐飲娛樂場所和其他景點。這一策略多年來帶來了豐厚的回報。自 1997 年上市以來，該 REIT 已為其股東提供了超過 1600% 的終身總回報，通過擴大其投資組合、現金流和分紅支付。</p>
<p>然而，該公司在近年來面臨了一些逆風，影響了其增長股東價值的能力。首先，疫情對其租户產生了重大影響，其中大多數不得不暫時關閉運營。這影響了他們支付租金的能力。因此，該 REIT 不得不暫停分紅一段時間，然後以較低的水平恢復分紅。</p>
<p>疫情對其影院租户產生了持續影響。其最大租户之一的母公司在 2022 年申請破產。該 REIT 能夠重新談判其租約，覆蓋其租給該租户的 57 個影院物業中的 41 個，這應該能在今年恢復約 96% 的破產前租金。</p>
<p>除此之外，較高的利率增加了公司的資本成本。其股價目前比疫情前的高峰低超過 35%，這也是其提供 7.5% 高分紅收益率的原因，儘管其分紅遠低於疫情前的水平。考慮到如此高的收益率和更高的借款成本，該 REIT 很難通過發行額外股本進行增值收購。</p>
<h2>從逆風轉為順風</h2>
<p>EPR 房地產的高資本成本限制了其近年來的增長能力，無法達到其可以通過支付分紅、資本回收收益和信用額度借款所產生的內部自由現金流來資助的水平。例如，EPR 房地產去年資助了 2.694 億美元的新投資，並計劃在今年投資 2.25 億到 2.75 億美元。這一投資率足以實現其每股運營資金（FFO）3% 到 4% 的年增長。這一速度也支持類似範圍的分紅增長。</p>
<p>鑑於其資本成本的限制，該 REIT 計劃在短期內繼續限制其增長，僅投資於可以通過內部產生的現金和信用額度借款來資助的項目，目前在 10 億美元的信用額度中僅有 1.69 億美元未償還。它現在非常謹慎，主要專注於高回報的開發和再開發項目。</p>
<p>然而，利率下降應該有助於降低其資本成本。較低的利率將減少其借款成本，並應該提升其股價。這將使公司更容易在未來資助額外的增值交易。例如，在 2019 年，該 REIT 投資了 7.947 億美元用於新的物業投資。同時，它最初預計在 2020 年將在新投資上花費 16 億到 18 億美元，包括一項預計為 10 億美元的遊戲場所收購，該收購部分由 2019 年出售的 882 百萬美元的非核心資產（主要是教育物業）資助。這些交易將使該 REIT 能夠繼續增長其分紅，而其分紅在疫情後的重置後遠低於之前的水平。</p>
<h2>強勁的總回報潛力</h2>
<p>儘管面臨資本成本的逆風，EPR 房地產目前仍提供了吸引人的總回報潛力。其分紅收益率超過 7.5%，現金流和支付每年增長 3% 到 4%，該 REIT 應該能夠從這裏產生雙位數的總回報。這假設其股價僅與其盈利增長率保持一致。</p>
<p>然而，如果進一步降息，它可能會成為更大的贏家。這將通過降低借款成本來幫助降低其資本成本。隨着房地產價值的增加，其股價也應該上漲。這一催化劑還將使該 REIT 能夠增加投資量，並在未來更快地增長其 FFO 和分紅，進一步增強其總回報潛力。</p>

EPR房地產

<p>EPR 房地產是一家專注於體驗型房地產的特殊房地產投資信託（REIT），可能會從潛在的聯邦儲備利率下調中顯著受益。由於疫情和利率上升，該公司面臨挑戰，影響了其增長和分紅支付。然而，EPR 目前的股息收益率為 7.5%，並且採取了嚴格的投資策略，使其具備了增長的基礎。利率下調帶來的借貸成本降低，可能增強其資金用於新收購的能力，並改善其股價，從而可能為投資者帶來兩位數的總回報</p>

<p>Interest rates have an outsize impact on the real estate sector. Companies and individuals typically borrow money to fund a significant portion of any real estate investment. As rates rise, they make borrowing money to fund new deals more expensive, and higher rates typically weigh on real estate values.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率對房地產行業的影響非常顯著。公司和個人通常借款來資助任何房地產投資的很大一部分。隨着利率上升，借款資金以資助新交易的成本變得更高，而較高的利率通常會對房地產價值產生壓力。</p>
</div><p>However, after keeping rates high in recent years to combat inflation, the Federal Reserve has started cutting the Federal Funds Rate. It currently expects to continue reducing rates in the coming months. While that should positively impact the entire real estate sector, some stocks could see an even bigger benefit from falling rates. One of them is <strong>EPR Properties</strong>(EPR -0.83%). Here's why the real estate investment trust (REIT) could be a winner if the Fed keeps cutting rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在近年來為了應對通貨膨脹而保持高利率後，聯邦儲備委員會已經開始降低聯邦基金利率。它目前預計將在未來幾個月繼續降低利率。雖然這應該對整個房地產行業產生積極影響，但一些股票可能會從下降的利率中獲得更大的好處。其中之一是 <strong>EPR 房地產</strong>(EPR -0.83%)。以下是如果美聯儲繼續降息，這家房地產投資信託基金（REIT）可能會成為贏家的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Battling headwinds in recent years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>近年來面臨的逆風</h2>
</div><p>EPR Properties is a specialty REIT focused on owning experiential real estate, such as movie theaters, eat-and-play venues, and other attractions. That strategy had paid big dividends over the years. The REIT has delivered a more than 1,600% lifetime total return to its shareholders since it came public in 1997 by growing its portfolio, cash flow, and dividend payment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EPR 房地產是一家專注於擁有體驗式房地產的專業 REIT，例如電影院、餐飲娛樂場所和其他景點。這一策略多年來帶來了豐厚的回報。自 1997 年上市以來，該 REIT 已為其股東提供了超過 1600% 的終身總回報，通過擴大其投資組合、現金流和分紅支付。</p>
</div><p>However, the company has faced some headwinds in recent years that have impacted its ability to grow shareholder value. First, the pandemic had a meaningful impact on its tenants, most of which had to shut down their operations temporarily. That affected their ability to pay rent. As a result, the REIT had to suspend its dividend for a period before bringing it back at a lower level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，該公司在近年來面臨了一些逆風，影響了其增長股東價值的能力。首先，疫情對其租户產生了重大影響，其中大多數不得不暫時關閉運營。這影響了他們支付租金的能力。因此，該 REIT 不得不暫停分紅一段時間，然後以較低的水平恢復分紅。</p>
</div><p>The pandemic had a lingering impact on its theater tenants. The parent company of one of its largest tenants filed for bankruptcy in 2022. The REIT was able to renegotiate its lease to cover 41 of the 57 theater properties it had leased to this tenant, which should recover about 96% of the pre-bankruptcy rent this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疫情對其影院租户產生了持續影響。其最大租户之一的母公司在 2022 年申請破產。該 REIT 能夠重新談判其租約，覆蓋其租給該租户的 57 個影院物業中的 41 個，這應該能在今年恢復約 96% 的破產前租金。</p>
</div><p>On top of all that, higher interest rates have increased the company's cost of capital. Its share price currently sits more than 35% below its pre-pandemic peak, which is why it offers such a high dividend yield of 7.5%, even though its dividend is much lower than before the pandemic. Given that high yield and higher borrowing costs, it's difficult for the REIT to make accretive acquisitions funded by issuing additional equity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除此之外，較高的利率增加了公司的資本成本。其股價目前比疫情前的高峰低超過 35%，這也是其提供 7.5% 高分紅收益率的原因，儘管其分紅遠低於疫情前的水平。考慮到如此高的收益率和更高的借款成本，該 REIT 很難通過發行額外股本進行增值收購。</p>
</div><h2>From a headwind to a tailwind</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>從逆風轉為順風</h2>
</div><p>EPR Properties' higher cost of capital has limited its ability to grow in recent years to a level it can fund with internally generated free cash flow after paying dividends, capital recycling proceeds, and borrowings on its credit facility. For example, EPR Properties funded $269.4 million of new investments last year and is on pace to invest $225 million to $275 million this year. This investment rate is enough to deliver 3% to 4% annual growth in its funds from operations (FFO) per share. This pace also supports dividend growth in a similar range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EPR 房地產的高資本成本限制了其近年來的增長能力，無法達到其可以通過支付分紅、資本回收收益和信用額度借款所產生的內部自由現金流來資助的水平。例如，EPR 房地產去年資助了 2.694 億美元的新投資，並計劃在今年投資 2.25 億到 2.75 億美元。這一投資率足以實現其每股運營資金（FFO）3% 到 4% 的年增長。這一速度也支持類似範圍的分紅增長。</p>
</div><p>Given its cost of capital constraints, the REIT plans to continue limiting its growth in the near term to investments it can fund with internally generated cash and borrowings on its credit facility, which currently has only $169 million outstanding on the $1 billion facility. It's very disciplined right now, primarily focusing on high-return development and redevelopment projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於其資本成本的限制，該 REIT 計劃在短期內繼續限制其增長，僅投資於可以通過內部產生的現金和信用額度借款來資助的項目，目前在 10 億美元的信用額度中僅有 1.69 億美元未償還。它現在非常謹慎，主要專注於高回報的開發和再開發項目。</p>
</div><p>However, falling interest rates should help reduce its cost of capital. Lower rates would decrease its borrowing costs and should lift its stock price. That should make it easier for the company to fund additional accretive deals in the future. For example, in 2019, the REIT invested $794.7 million into new property investments. Meanwhile, it initially expected to spend $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion in 2020 on new investments, including an anticipated $1 billion gaming venue acquisition it had secured, funded partly by $882 million in non-core asset sales, primarily educational properties, in 2019. Those deals would have enabled the REIT to continue growing its dividend, which was at a much higher level than it is today following its post-pandemic reset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，利率下降應該有助於降低其資本成本。較低的利率將減少其借款成本，並應該提升其股價。這將使公司更容易在未來資助額外的增值交易。例如，在 2019 年，該 REIT 投資了 7.947 億美元用於新的物業投資。同時，它最初預計在 2020 年將在新投資上花費 16 億到 18 億美元，包括一項預計為 10 億美元的遊戲場所收購，該收購部分由 2019 年出售的 882 百萬美元的非核心資產（主要是教育物業）資助。這些交易將使該 REIT 能夠繼續增長其分紅，而其分紅在疫情後的重置後遠低於之前的水平。</p>
</div><h2>Strong total return potential</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>強勁的總回報潛力</h2>
</div><p>EPR Properties currently offers an appealing total return potential despite its cost of capital headwinds. With a dividend yield above 7.5% and its cash flow and payout growing by 3% to 4% per year, the REIT should generate double-digit total returns from here. That assumes its stock price only rises in line with its earnings growth rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管面臨資本成本的逆風，EPR 房地產目前仍提供了吸引人的總回報潛力。其分紅收益率超過 7.5%，現金流和支付每年增長 3% 到 4%，該 REIT 應該能夠從這裏產生雙位數的總回報。這假設其股價僅與其盈利增長率保持一致。</p>
</div><p>However, it could be an even bigger winner with additional rate cuts. They would help lower its cost of capital by reducing borrowing costs. Its stock price should also rise as real estate values increase. That catalyst would also enable the REIT to ramp up its investment volume and grow its FFO and dividend even faster in the future, further enhancing its total return potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果進一步降息，它可能會成為更大的贏家。這將通過降低借款成本來幫助降低其資本成本。隨着房地產價值的增加，其股價也應該上漲。這一催化劑還將使該 REIT 能夠增加投資量，並在未來更快地增長其 FFO 和分紅，進一步增強其總回報潛力。</p>
</div>

If the Fed Keeps Cutting Interest Rates, This Stock Could Be a Winner

- EPR Properties 是一家專注於體驗性房地產的 REIT，面臨高利率和疫情影響。  
- 隨着美聯儲降息，EPR 的資本成本將降低，可能提升股價和投資能力。  
- 該 REIT 預計將實現每年 3% 至 4% 的現金流和股息增長，具備良好的總回報潛力。

如果美聯儲繼續降息，這隻股票可能會成為大贏家