<p>銀行股可能是美聯儲降息的最大受益者之一，預計這種降息將至少持續到未來幾年。它們還可能受益於即將上任的總統政府帶來的監管環境放鬆和較低的企業税率。</p>
<p>然而，目前看起來特別有吸引力的一家公司是 <strong>Capital One Financial</strong>（COF -0.08%），該公司以其信用卡業務而聞名。以下是我認為它可能是現在最佳銀行股票的原因。</p>
<h2>一家高盈利的銀行，估值吸引人</h2>
<p>正如你可能知道的，Capital One 專注於信用卡貸款。其未償貸款餘額中大約一半來自信用卡。</p>
<p>信用卡業務的高利率特性使得 Capital One 成為一家異常盈利的銀行。它的淨利差超過 7%，而大多數美國大型銀行的淨利差僅在 3% 左右。Capital One 的效率比率遠優於同行，且在疫情後激增的壞賬率正在改善。</p>
<p>儘管該股距離 52 周高點僅有 5% 的差距，但 Capital One 顯然沒有 2024 年初那麼便宜，但股價上漲是有原因的。利率下降的環境可能成為該銀行的催化劑，許多投資者對即將收購 <strong>Discover Financial Services</strong>（DFS -0.03%）感到興奮，我將對此進行討論。</p>
<p>然而，以僅 1.16 倍的賬面價值和不到 13 倍的未來收益預期估值，Capital One 顯著低於其同行。例如，<strong>美國銀行</strong> 的市淨率為 1.35，而 <strong>摩根大通</strong> 的市淨率超過其賬面價值的兩倍。</p>
<p>公平地説，這主要是因為 Capital One 在信用卡業務上的集中帶來的風險增加。但如果你相信（就像我一樣）美國經濟在未來幾年將保持強勁，那麼該股可能是個便宜貨。</p>
<h2>未來有很多有趣的可能性</h2>
<p>Capital One 在 2 月份宣佈計劃以全股票交易收購競爭對手 Discover，這可能比市場給予的認可要大得多。</p>
<p>首先，顯而易見的好處：合併後的 Capital One 和 Discover 將擁有龐大的信用卡業務。Capital One 大約有 1 億信用卡客户，而 Discover 的客户甚至更多。此外，這兩家銀行提供許多互補而非重疊的產品。Discover 的信用卡通常是現金返還性質，而像 Venture 這樣的旅行信用卡則是 Capital One 的主打產品。</p>
<p>此外，還有與 Discover 的封閉式支付網絡相關的協同效應。換句話説，Discover 不僅作為貸款方，還處理自己的支付，而不是依賴於 <strong>Visa</strong> 和 <strong>Mastercard</strong> 等支付網絡。事實上，Capital One 預計到 2027 年將在費用和網絡協同效應方面節省 27 億美元。</p>
<p>然而，如果 Capital One 選擇利用該支付網絡為其他銀行（如 Visa 和 Mastercard 所做的）處理第三方支付，這個支付網絡可能會產生更深遠的影響。支付處理是一個_高度_盈利的業務，如果 Capital One 決定投資於 Discover 網絡的增長，將創造一些有趣的可能性。</p>
<h2>銀行的強勁環境</h2>
<p>還有政治環境需要考慮。在特朗普政府的第一任期內，可以明確指出，沒有哪個行業比銀行更能從政策變化中受益。放鬆的監管使銀行更容易獲利（並完成合並），而較低的企業税對銀行的好處尤為明顯。雖然新政府的具體政策目標尚不清楚，但我們可能正進入銀行業另一個強勁增長的環境。</p>

發現金融

<p>銀行股有望受益於預計的聯邦儲備利率下調和有利的監管環境。由於其高盈利能力，Capital One Financial 成為一個強勁的投資選擇，其淨利差超過 7%。該公司正在收購發現金融，這可能會增強其信用卡業務並創造成本節約。以 1.16 倍的賬面價值估值，Capital One 的估值低於美國銀行和摩根大通等同行。政治環境也可能有利於銀行，可能導致強勁的增長環境</p>

<p>Bank stocks could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, which are widely expected to continue for at least the next couple of years. They could also benefit from the loosening regulatory environment and lower corporate tax rates that could come with the incoming presidential administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀行股可能是美聯儲降息的最大受益者之一，預計這種降息將至少持續到未來幾年。它們還可能受益於即將上任的總統政府帶來的監管環境放鬆和較低的企業税率。</p>
</div><p>However, one company that looks especially attractive right now is <strong>Capital One Financial</strong>(COF -0.08%), which is best known for its credit card business. Here's why I think it could be the best bank stock to buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，目前看起來特別有吸引力的一家公司是 <strong>Capital One Financial</strong>（COF -0.08%），該公司以其信用卡業務而聞名。以下是我認為它可能是現在最佳銀行股票的原因。</p>
</div><h2>A highly profitable bank at an attractive valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一家高盈利的銀行，估值吸引人</h2>
</div><p>As you probably know, Capital One specializes in credit card lending. Roughly half of its outstanding loan balances are from credit cards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你可能知道的，Capital One 專注於信用卡貸款。其未償貸款餘額中大約一半來自信用卡。</p>
</div><p>The high-interest nature of the credit card business makes Capital One an exceptionally profitable bank. It has a net interest margin of more than 7%, while most big U.S. banks are happy to generate NIM in the 3% range. Capital One's efficiency ratio is far better than its peers, and charge-off rates are improving after a post-pandemic spike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>信用卡業務的高利率特性使得 Capital One 成為一家異常盈利的銀行。它的淨利差超過 7%，而大多數美國大型銀行的淨利差僅在 3% 左右。Capital One 的效率比率遠優於同行，且在疫情後激增的壞賬率正在改善。</p>
</div><p>With the stock just 5% below its 52-week high, Capital One certainly isn't as cheap as it was earlier in 2024, but the stock is higher for a reason. The falling-interest rate environment could be a catalyst for the bank, and many investors are excited about the pending acquisition of <strong>Discover Financial Services</strong>(DFS -0.03%), which I'll discuss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管該股距離 52 周高點僅有 5% 的差距，但 Capital One 顯然沒有 2024 年初那麼便宜，但股價上漲是有原因的。利率下降的環境可能成為該銀行的催化劑，許多投資者對即將收購 <strong>Discover Financial Services</strong>（DFS -0.03%）感到興奮，我將對此進行討論。</p>
</div><p>However, at a valuation of just 1.16 times book value and less than 13 times forward earnings estimates, Capital One is significantly cheaper than its peers. As an example, <strong>Bank of America</strong> has a price-to-book multiple of 1.35, while <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong> trades for more than twice its book value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，以僅 1.16 倍的賬面價值和不到 13 倍的未來收益預期估值，Capital One 顯著低於其同行。例如，<strong>美國銀行</strong> 的市淨率為 1.35，而 <strong>摩根大通</strong> 的市淨率超過其賬面價值的兩倍。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, this is mainly because of the increased risk that comes from Capital One's concentration in the credit card business. But if you believe (as I do) that the U.S. economy will be strong for the next few years, the stock could be a bargain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地説，這主要是因為 Capital One 在信用卡業務上的集中帶來的風險增加。但如果你相信（就像我一樣）美國經濟在未來幾年將保持強勁，那麼該股可能是個便宜貨。</p>
</div><h2>Lots of interesting possibilities in the future</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未來有很多有趣的可能性</h2>
</div><p>Capital One announced its intention to acquire rival Discover in February in an all-stock transaction, and this could be a bigger deal than the market is giving it credit for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Capital One 在 2 月份宣佈計劃以全股票交易收購競爭對手 Discover，這可能比市場給予的認可要大得多。</p>
</div><p>First, the obvious benefits: A combined Capital One and Discover would have a massive credit card business. Capital One has about 100 million credit card customers, while Discover has even more. Plus, the two banks offer lots of complementary, not overlapping, products. Discover's cards are typically of a cash-back nature, while travel credit cards like Venture are Capital One's bread and butter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，顯而易見的好處：合併後的 Capital One 和 Discover 將擁有龐大的信用卡業務。Capital One 大約有 1 億信用卡客户，而 Discover 的客户甚至更多。此外，這兩家銀行提供許多互補而非重疊的產品。Discover 的信用卡通常是現金返還性質，而像 Venture 這樣的旅行信用卡則是 Capital One 的主打產品。</p>
</div><p>There are also the synergies involved with Discover's closed-loop payment network. In other words, instead of relying on payment networks like <strong>Visa</strong> and <strong>Mastercard</strong>, Discover processes its own payments in addition to acting as the lender. In fact, between expenses and network synergies, Capital One expects $2.7 billion in cost savings by 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，還有與 Discover 的封閉式支付網絡相關的協同效應。換句話説，Discover 不僅作為貸款方，還處理自己的支付，而不是依賴於 <strong>Visa</strong> 和 <strong>Mastercard</strong> 等支付網絡。事實上，Capital One 預計到 2027 年將在費用和網絡協同效應方面節省 27 億美元。</p>
</div><p>However, the payment network could have deeper implications if Capital One chooses to use it to process payments on a third-party basis for other banks (like Visa and Mastercard do). Payment processing is a <em>highly</em> profitable business, and if Capital One decides to invest in the growth of Discover's network, it creates some interesting possibilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果 Capital One 選擇利用該支付網絡為其他銀行（如 Visa 和 Mastercard 所做的）處理第三方支付，這個支付網絡可能會產生更深遠的影響。支付處理是一個_高度_盈利的業務，如果 Capital One 決定投資於 Discover 網絡的增長，將創造一些有趣的可能性。</p>
</div><h2>A strong environment for banks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>銀行的強勁環境</h2>
</div><p>There's also the political environment to consider. During the first Trump administration, there was a solid case to be made that no industry benefited more from policy changes than banks. Looser regulations make it easier for banks to profit (and complete mergers), and lower corporate taxes disproportionately benefit banks. While many of the specific policy goals of the new administration aren't clear yet, we could be entering another strong growth environment for the banking industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>還有政治環境需要考慮。在特朗普政府的第一任期內，可以明確指出，沒有哪個行業比銀行更能從政策變化中受益。放鬆的監管使銀行更容易獲利（並完成合並），而較低的企業税對銀行的好處尤為明顯。雖然新政府的具體政策目標尚不清楚，但我們可能正進入銀行業另一個強勁增長的環境。</p>
</div>

The Smartest Bank Stock to Invest $500 In Right Now

- 銀行股可能受益於美聯儲的降息和放鬆監管環境。  
- Capital One Financial 以信用卡業務著稱，淨利差超過 7%。  
- 收購 Discover 可能帶來顯著協同效應和成本節約。

目前最值得投資 500 美元的銀行股票