<p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 2.15%) 在 2024 年的股市表現異常火熱，這得益於公司每個季度都在創造驚人的增長，這也解釋了市場為何對其 2025 財年第三季度的業績（截至 10 月 27 日的三個月）充滿期待。</p>
<p>這家半導體巨頭的報告於 11 月 20 日發佈，毫不意外地，得益於對其用於數據中心訓練和部署人工智能（AI）模型的圖形處理單元（GPU）的強勁需求，業績超出預期。然而，投資者對公司財報的初步反應似乎是負面的，因為在業績發佈後的兩個交易日內，股價下跌。</p>
<p>這是否意味着英偉達的火熱上漲遇到了障礙？還是説股價會克服這個小波折，繼續向北行進，為投資者在 2025 年帶來更多收益？讓我們來看看。</p>
<h2>解讀英偉達的業績和指引</h2>
<p>英偉達在 2025 財年第三季度報告了創紀錄的季度收入 351 億美元，比去年同期增長了 94%。這一數字遠超公司指引的 325 億美元，也超過了市場普遍預期的 331.7 億美元。英偉達的非公認會計原則（non-GAAP）每股收益同比增長 103%，達到 0.81 美元，遠高於市場普遍預期的 0.75 美元。</p>
<p>指引更是錦上添花，英偉達預計 2025 財年第四季度的收入將在 375 億美元左右。這略高於華爾街預期的 370 億美元。然而，股價在盤前交易中下滑，原因有幾個。</p>
<p>首先，英偉達對當前季度的收入指引意味着與去年 221 億美元的收入相比，預計將實現近 70% 的同比增長。這表明公司的增長相對放緩。其次，公司預計當前季度的非公認會計原則毛利率為 73.5%，而去年同期為 76.7%。</p>
<p>然而，精明的投資者應該考慮超越這兩個因素。儘管公司已經實現了巨大的收入基礎，但仍在以驚人的速度增長。儘管同比增長 70% 的收入比之前幾個季度慢，但考慮到其主要競爭對手 <strong>AMD</strong> 的收入基礎較小，增長速度卻慢得多，這仍然相當穩健。</p>
<p>此外，毛利壓力不會持續太久。英偉達對當前季度的毛利預測下降是由於其下一代 Blackwell AI 芯片的生產 ramp-up。公司希望最大化產出，以滿足對這些芯片的巨大需求，這將對毛利產生短期影響。</p>
<p>正如首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯在最新的財報電話會議上所言：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>我們當前的重點是提升強勁的需求、增加系統可用性，併為客户提供最佳的配置組合。隨着 Blackwell 的生產 ramp-up，我們預計毛利將適度下降到 70% 左右。當完全 ramp-up 時，我們預計 Blackwell 的毛利將在中 70% 左右。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>短期的毛利壓力不應持續太久，因為英偉達表示對其 Blackwell 處理器的需求是 “驚人的”，這就是為什麼它正在 “加速擴大供應以滿足客户的巨大需求……”。</p>
<p>好消息是，英偉達預計將在 2024 年交付比最初預期更多的 Blackwell 芯片。即便如此，公司指出，這些芯片的需求仍將超過供應，並將繼續努力在 2025 年提高生產能力。英偉達預計其 Blackwell 的收入將在明年每個季度持續增長，並預計到明年 4 月，基於最新架構的芯片的季度收入將超過上一代 Hopper 架構。</p>
<p>一旦從 Hopper 過渡到 Blackwell 完成，英偉達能夠生產足夠的這些芯片以跟上其所見證的巨大需求，它應該能夠在 2025 年及以後保持健康的收入和盈利增長。</p>
<h2>分析師預計英偉達明年將實現更強勁的增長</h2>
<p>英偉達的 2025 財年第四季度指引表明，它有望以 1235 億美元的收入結束這一年（將第四季度指引與 2025 財年前九個月的收入相加）。管理層的評論似乎給分析師帶來了信心，認為它將能夠在明年交出另一份穩健的業績。</p>
<p>正如圖表所示，英偉達 2026 財年的收入預期（將從 2025 年 1 月底開始）有所上升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce3440e5f2183ce34d908c08d8067c46.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce3440e5f2183ce34d908c08d8067c46.png"/></p>
<p>當前財年英偉達收入預期數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>與此同時，分析師預計公司的每股收益將在 2026 財年再增長 48%，達到 4.27 美元。然而，如果對 Blackwell 處理器的需求保持強勁，並對其收入貢獻顯著，那麼它有很大機會超越華爾街的預期。畢竟，英偉達在過去四個季度中每次都超越了市場普遍預期的盈利預期，持續交出超出預期的增長。</p>
<p>Blackwell 可能幫助它在明年保持這一趨勢，這就是為什麼投資者仍然可以繼續持有英偉達的股票，甚至購買更多。因為英偉達目前的交易市盈率為 33 倍，接近以科技股為主的 <strong>納斯達克 100</strong> 指數的前瞻市盈率 31.3 倍。如果英偉達能夠實現更強勁的盈利增長，而市場決定給予其溢價估值，那麼它應該能夠在 2025 年實現更多的上漲。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達報告了 2023 財年第三季度創紀錄的季度收入 31 億美元，同比增長 94%，超出預期和估算。儘管業績強勁，但由於對第四季度預計 70% 的收入增長和毛利率下降的擔憂，股價在財報發佈後下跌。然而，英偉達的首席財務官表示，毛利率壓力是暫時的，因為公司正在加大新款 Blackwell AI 芯片的生產以滿足高需求。分析師對英偉達到 2025 年的增長軌跡持樂觀態度，2026 財年的收入預估也在上升</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.15%) has been in sizzling form on the stock market in 2024, thanks to the stunning growth the company has been clocking quarter after quarter, which explains why the market was awaiting its fiscal 2025 third-quarter results (for the three months ended Oct. 27) with bated breath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 2.15%) 在 2024 年的股市表現異常火熱，這得益於公司每個季度都在創造驚人的增長，這也解釋了市場為何對其 2025 財年第三季度的業績（截至 10 月 27 日的三個月）充滿期待。</p>
</div><p>The semiconductor giant's report came out on Nov. 20, and not surprisingly, it delivered stronger-than-expected results on the back of healthy demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs) that are being used in data centers to train and deploy artificial intelligence (AI) models. However, the initial investor reaction to the company's earnings seems to be negative, as the stock has headed lower in the two sessions following its results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家半導體巨頭的報告於 11 月 20 日發佈，毫不意外地，得益於對其用於數據中心訓練和部署人工智能（AI）模型的圖形處理單元（GPU）的強勁需求，業績超出預期。然而，投資者對公司財報的初步反應似乎是負面的，因為在業績發佈後的兩個交易日內，股價下跌。</p>
</div><p>Does this mean Nvidia's red-hot rally has hit a speed bump? Or will the stock overcome this hiccup and resume its journey north to deliver more gains to investors in 2025? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是否意味着英偉達的火熱上漲遇到了障礙？還是説股價會克服這個小波折，繼續向北行進，為投資者在 2025 年帶來更多收益？讓我們來看看。</p>
</div><h2>Deciphering Nvidia's results and guidance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>解讀英偉達的業績和指引</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia reported record quarterly revenue of $35.1 billion in fiscal Q3, an increase of 94% from the year-ago period. The number was well ahead of the company's guidance of $32.5 billion and also beat consensus estimates of $33.17 billion. Nvidia's non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings increased by 103% from the prior-year period to $0.81 per share, which was well ahead of the $0.75-per-share consensus estimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達在 2025 財年第三季度報告了創紀錄的季度收入 351 億美元，比去年同期增長了 94%。這一數字遠超公司指引的 325 億美元，也超過了市場普遍預期的 331.7 億美元。英偉達的非公認會計原則（non-GAAP）每股收益同比增長 103%，達到 0.81 美元，遠高於市場普遍預期的 0.75 美元。</p>
</div><p>The guidance was the icing on the cake, as Nvidia expects fiscal Q4 revenue to land at $37.5 billion at the midpoint. That was slightly higher than the $37 billion Wall Street estimate. However, the stock slipped in premarket trading for a couple of reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>指引更是錦上添花，英偉達預計 2025 財年第四季度的收入將在 375 億美元左右。這略高於華爾街預期的 370 億美元。然而，股價在盤前交易中下滑，原因有幾個。</p>
</div><p>First, Nvidia's revenue guidance for the current quarter would translate into a year-over-year increase of almost 70% from last year's reading of $22.1 billion. That points toward a relative slowdown in the company's growth. Second, the company has guided for a non-GAAP gross margin of 73.5% for the current quarter. That figure stood at 76.7% in the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，英偉達對當前季度的收入指引意味着與去年 221 億美元的收入相比，預計將實現近 70% 的同比增長。這表明公司的增長相對放緩。其次，公司預計當前季度的非公認會計原則毛利率為 73.5%，而去年同期為 76.7%。</p>
</div><p>Savvy investors, however, should consider looking past both these factors. The company is still growing at a terrific pace, despite having achieved a huge revenue base already. A year-over-year jump of 70% in revenue, though slower than previous quarters, is still quite solid when we consider that its primary rival with a smaller revenue base, <strong>AMD</strong>, has been growing at a much slower pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，精明的投資者應該考慮超越這兩個因素。儘管公司已經實現了巨大的收入基礎，但仍在以驚人的速度增長。儘管同比增長 70% 的收入比之前幾個季度慢，但考慮到其主要競爭對手 <strong>AMD</strong> 的收入基礎較小，增長速度卻慢得多，這仍然相當穩健。</p>
</div><p>Also, the margin pressure isn't going to last long. The reduced margin Nvidia is forecasting for the current quarter is attributable to the production ramp of its next-generation Blackwell AI chips. The company is looking to maximize output in a bid to meet the huge demand for these chips, and that's going to have a short-term impact on margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，毛利壓力不會持續太久。英偉達對當前季度的毛利預測下降是由於其下一代 Blackwell AI 芯片的生產 ramp-up。公司希望最大化產出，以滿足對這些芯片的巨大需求，這將對毛利產生短期影響。</p>
</div><p>As CFO Colette Kress remarked on the latest earnings conference call:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯在最新的財報電話會議上所言：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Our current focus is on ramping to strong demand, increasing system availability, and providing the optimal mix of configurations to our customer. As Blackwell ramps, we expect gross margins to moderate to the low 70s. When fully ramp[ed], we expect Blackwell margins to be in the mid-70s.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>我們當前的重點是提升強勁的需求、增加系統可用性，併為客户提供最佳的配置組合。隨着 Blackwell 的生產 ramp-up，我們預計毛利將適度下降到 70% 左右。當完全 ramp-up 時，我們預計 Blackwell 的毛利將在中 70% 左右。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The short-term margin pressure should not linger for long, as Nvidia says that the demand for its Blackwell processors is &#34;staggering,&#34; which is why it is &#34;racing to scale supply to meet the incredible demand... [from] customers.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期的毛利壓力不應持續太久，因為英偉達表示對其 Blackwell 處理器的需求是 “驚人的”，這就是為什麼它正在 “加速擴大供應以滿足客户的巨大需求……”。</p>
</div><p>The good part is that Nvidia expects to deliver more Blackwell chips than it was originally expecting in 2024. Even then, the company points out that the demand for these chips will continue to exceed supply, and it will continue to work on improving production in 2025. Nvidia is expecting its Blackwell revenue to continue increasing with each quarter going into next year, and it is expected that the quarterly revenue from the chips made on the latest architecture will exceed the previous generation Hopper architecture in April next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，英偉達預計將在 2024 年交付比最初預期更多的 Blackwell 芯片。即便如此，公司指出，這些芯片的需求仍將超過供應，並將繼續努力在 2025 年提高生產能力。英偉達預計其 Blackwell 的收入將在明年每個季度持續增長，並預計到明年 4 月，基於最新架構的芯片的季度收入將超過上一代 Hopper 架構。</p>
</div><p>Once the transition from Hopper to Blackwell is complete and Nvidia manages to produce enough of these chips to catch up to the massive demand it's witnessing, it should be able to maintain the healthy growth in its revenue and earnings in 2025, and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一旦從 Hopper 過渡到 Blackwell 完成，英偉達能夠生產足夠的這些芯片以跟上其所見證的巨大需求，它應該能夠在 2025 年及以後保持健康的收入和盈利增長。</p>
</div><h2>Analysts are expecting stronger growth from Nvidia next year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>分析師預計英偉達明年將實現更強勁的增長</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia's fiscal Q4 guidance indicates that it is on track to finish the year with $123.5 billion in revenue (adding the Q4 guidance to its revenue in the first nine months of fiscal 2025). Management's comments seem to have given analysts confidence that it will be able to deliver another solid performance next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的 2025 財年第四季度指引表明，它有望以 1235 億美元的收入結束這一年（將第四季度指引與 2025 財年前九個月的收入相加）。管理層的評論似乎給分析師帶來了信心，認為它將能夠在明年交出另一份穩健的業績。</p>
</div><p>As the chart shows, Nvidia's revenue estimates for fiscal 2026 (which will begin from the end of January 2025) have moved up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如圖表所示，英偉達 2026 財年的收入預期（將從 2025 年 1 月底開始）有所上升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce3440e5f2183ce34d908c08d8067c46.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce3440e5f2183ce34d908c08d8067c46.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前財年英偉達收入預期數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, analysts are expecting the company's bottom line to grow another 48% in fiscal 2026 to $4.27 per share. However, if demand for Blackwell processors remains strong and contributes significantly to its top line, there is a good chance that it will be able to exceed Wall Street's forecasts. After all, Nvidia has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters by consistently delivering stronger-than-expected growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，分析師預計公司的每股收益將在 2026 財年再增長 48%，達到 4.27 美元。然而，如果對 Blackwell 處理器的需求保持強勁，並對其收入貢獻顯著，那麼它有很大機會超越華爾街的預期。畢竟，英偉達在過去四個季度中每次都超越了市場普遍預期的盈利預期，持續交出超出預期的增長。</p>
</div><p>Blackwell could help it maintain that trend next year, which is why investors can still continue holding shares of Nvidia, or even buy more of it. That's because Nvidia is currently trading at 33 times forward earnings, which is close to the tech-laden <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> index's forward earnings multiple of 31.3. If Nvidia manages to deliver stronger earnings growth and the market decides to reward it with a premium valuation, it should be able to deliver more upside in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Blackwell 可能幫助它在明年保持這一趨勢，這就是為什麼投資者仍然可以繼續持有英偉達的股票，甚至購買更多。因為英偉達目前的交易市盈率為 33 倍，接近以科技股為主的 <strong>納斯達克 100</strong> 指數的前瞻市盈率 31.3 倍。如果英偉達能夠實現更強勁的盈利增長，而市場決定給予其溢價估值，那麼它應該能夠在 2025 年實現更多的上漲。</p>
</div>

Will Nvidia's Blockbuster Results Be Enough to Send the Stock Higher?

- Nvidia 在 2024 年股市表現強勁，第三季度營收創紀錄，增長 94%。  
- 儘管市場對其財報反應負面，但公司預計未來增長仍將強勁。  
- 分析師預測，Nvidia 明年每股收益將增長 48%，並可能超出預期。

英偉達的重磅業績能否推動股價進一步上漲？