<p><strong>聯合包裹</strong>(UPS 0.03%) 仍在艱難時期掙扎。小包裹快遞市場產能過剩，壓制了定價能力，而疲軟的經濟促使客户轉向更便宜的快遞選項。這一切都使得聯合包裹面臨困難的時期，公司在 2024 年結束時的收益將顯著低於管理層年初的預期。如果利率下降，聯合包裹可能會成為大贏家。原因如下。</p>
<h2>不僅僅是終端需求</h2>
<p>利率不僅影響聯合包裹的終端市場，也影響其商業模式。首席執行官卡羅爾·託梅的任期以她對 “更好而非更大” 運營框架的告誡為特徵。</p>
<p>簡單來説，這意味着專注於目標交付，而不是追求量的增長。這種方法影響了公司的結構和在終端市場的競爭力。後者是理解聯合包裹為何需要降低利率的關鍵。我稍後會回到這一點。首先，談談降低利率的週期性好處。</p>
<h2>降低利率將有助於量的增長</h2>
<p>包裹交付也具有周期性，並且將永遠如此。當經濟表現良好時，運輸的實物商品增多，反之亦然。因此，過去幾年經濟的疲軟對交付量產生了負面影響。不幸的是，交付放緩發生在包裹快遞公司為了應對疫情封鎖措施帶來的激增需求而增加產能之後。</p>
<p>正如管理層在 3 月份的投資者日上所概述的，2024 年美國小包裹市場的日均產能過剩約為 1200 萬。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE3NzExNzQwMC0xMjAxeDgwMS1kMjFiNDVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE3NzExNzQwMC0xMjAxeDgwMS1kMjFiNDVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>行業需要時間來消化這種過剩產能，聯合包裹等公司正在必要時減少產能。降低利率將刺激商業活動和消費者支出，導致包裹交付量的增長，客户將開始轉向更昂貴且更及時的交付選項。</p>
<h2>聯合包裹的商業模式也將受益</h2>
<p>回到聯合包裹商業模式的問題，可以公平地説，“更好而非更大” 框架在今年受到了挑戰。公司繼續專注於在特定終端市場推動增長，例如小型和中型企業（SMBs）以及醫療保健等高利潤市場。然而，它在 2024 年也承擔了相對較低每件收入的交付量。你可以在下面的圖表中看到，每件收入持續下降，但交付量再次增長，導致收入增長。</p>
<p>雖然這不是聯合包裹理想的情景，並且似乎與 “更好而非更大” 不一致，但市場條件決定了這一點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvdXBzLXVzLWRvbWVzdGljLXBhY2thZ2Utc2VnbWVudC1ncm93dGgteW95LTMucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvdXBzLXVzLWRvbWVzdGljLXBhY2thZ2Utc2VnbWVudC1ncm93dGgteW95LTMucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>數據來源：聯合包裹演示文稿。圖表由作者提供。</p>
<p>低利率環境將改善整體包裹交付需求，並使聯合包裹能夠更好地將其業務與長期戰略對齊。管理層對終端市場幾乎無能為力，而在 2024 年採取的務實方法——承擔較低每件收入的交付——在這種情況下是一個淨積極因素。</p>
<h2>2025 年的聯合包裹</h2>
<p>在 2025 年，隨着利率降低，聯合包裹應該能夠巧妙地迴歸其核心運營理念，即在目標市場中增長，並希望改善每件收入的增長。</p>
<p>這將是一個積極的發展，因為第三季度的好消息來自於每件成本同比降低了 4.1%。聯合包裹不僅在削減成本方面表現出色（公司今年裁員 12,000 人以減少 10 億美元的成本），而且還在應對 2023 年達成的改善勞動合同所帶來的成本增加。</p>
<p>其在 3 月份概述的中期計劃呼籲持續投資於自動化和智能設施，以提高網絡生產力，使聯合包裹能夠整合其設施並降低每件成本。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvcmV0aXJlZC1jb3VwbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvcmV0aXJlZC1jb3VwbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>值得購買的股票嗎？</h2>
<p>聯合包裹在低利率環境中有很多好處：改善定價能力，潛在的每件收入改善，同時每件成本可能得到控制，聯合包裹可以重新專注於高利潤的交付。這一切都表明，隨着公司從過去幾年的困難中恢復，明年將實現收入增長和利潤擴張的結合。</p>
<p>聯合包裹遠非完美，且沒有保證它會達到全年收益預期。但總體來看，這隻股票看起來具有良好的價值，預計 2025 年收益的市盈率為 15.6 倍。</p>

聯合包裹

<p>聯合包裹目前面臨小包裹快遞市場產能過剩和經濟疲軟的挑戰，導致 2024 年的盈利預測下調。然而，如果美聯儲降息，聯合包裹可能會受益於商業活動和消費者支出的增加，從而改善快遞量和定價能力。該公司專注於在高利潤市場的有針對性增長，可能更適應低利率環境，這可能導致 2025 年的收入增長和利潤率擴張。儘管存在不確定性，聯合包裹的股票在 2025 年預計盈利的 15.6 倍的估值下似乎具有良好的投資價值</p>

<p><strong>UPS</strong>(UPS 0.03%) continues to struggle through a difficult period. The small package delivery market is over capacity, pressuring pricing power at a time when a weak economy is encouraging customers to shift to cheaper delivery options. It all adds up to a difficult period for UPS, and the company will end 2024 with significantly lower earnings than management anticipated at the start of the year. UPS will likely be a big winner if interest rates head lower. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>聯合包裹</strong>(UPS 0.03%) 仍在艱難時期掙扎。小包裹快遞市場產能過剩，壓制了定價能力，而疲軟的經濟促使客户轉向更便宜的快遞選項。這一切都使得聯合包裹面臨困難的時期，公司在 2024 年結束時的收益將顯著低於管理層年初的預期。如果利率下降，聯合包裹可能會成為大贏家。原因如下。</p>
</div><h2>Not just about end demand</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不僅僅是終端需求</h2>
</div><p>Interest rates are affecting not only UPS' end markets, but also its business model. CEO Carol Tome's tenure has been characterized by her admonishment of the &#34;better not bigger&#34; operating framework.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率不僅影響聯合包裹的終端市場，也影響其商業模式。首席執行官卡羅爾·託梅的任期以她對 “更好而非更大” 運營框架的告誡為特徵。</p>
</div><p>In plain English, this implies focusing on targeted deliveries rather than chasing volume growth. This approach colors the company's structure and competitiveness in its end markets. The latter is the key to understanding why UPS needs lower interest rates. I'll return to that point in a moment. First, a few words on the cyclical benefit of lower rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡單來説，這意味着專注於目標交付，而不是追求量的增長。這種方法影響了公司的結構和在終端市場的競爭力。後者是理解聯合包裹為何需要降低利率的關鍵。我稍後會回到這一點。首先，談談降低利率的週期性好處。</p>
</div><h2>Lower rates will help volume growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>降低利率將有助於量的增長</h2>
</div><p>Package deliveries have also been cyclical, and they always will be. When the economy is doing well, more physical goods are shipped, and vice versa. As such, the weakness in the economy over the last couple of years has negatively affected delivery volumes. Unfortunately, the delivery slowdown came after the package delivery companies ramped up capacity to align with the burgeoning demand created by pandemic lockdown measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包裹交付也具有周期性，並且將永遠如此。當經濟表現良好時，運輸的實物商品增多，反之亦然。因此，過去幾年經濟的疲軟對交付量產生了負面影響。不幸的是，交付放緩發生在包裹快遞公司為了應對疫情封鎖措施帶來的激增需求而增加產能之後。</p>
</div><p>As management outlined during the investor day in March, the U.S. small package market has an excess capacity of some 12 million in average daily volume in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如管理層在 3 月份的投資者日上所概述的，2024 年美國小包裹市場的日均產能過剩約為 1200 萬。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE3NzExNzQwMC0xMjAxeDgwMS1kMjFiNDVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F799067%2Fgettyimages-1177117400-1201x801-d21b45d.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>It will take time for the industry to work through that overcapacity, and UPS, among others, is reducing capacity where necessary. Lower rates will spur business activity and consumer spending, leading to growth in package delivery volume, and customers will start switching back to more costly and more timely delivery options in response.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行業需要時間來消化這種過剩產能，聯合包裹等公司正在必要時減少產能。降低利率將刺激商業活動和消費者支出，導致包裹交付量的增長，客户將開始轉向更昂貴且更及時的交付選項。</p>
</div><h2>UPS' business model will benefit, too</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>聯合包裹的商業模式也將受益</h2>
</div><p>Returning to the point about the UPS business model, it's fair to say that the &#34;better not bigger&#34; framework has been challenged this year. The company continued to focus on driving growth in selected end markets, such as higher-margin markets like small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and healthcare. Still, it's also taken on a significant amount of relatively lower revenue per piece volume of deliveries in 2024. You can see this in the chart below, where revenue per piece continues to decline, but volumes are growing again, leading to revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回到聯合包裹商業模式的問題，可以公平地説，“更好而非更大” 框架在今年受到了挑戰。公司繼續專注於在特定終端市場推動增長，例如小型和中型企業（SMBs）以及醫療保健等高利潤市場。然而，它在 2024 年也承擔了相對較低每件收入的交付量。你可以在下面的圖表中看到，每件收入持續下降，但交付量再次增長，導致收入增長。</p>
</div><p>While it's not UPS' ideal scenario and seems inconsistent with &#34;better not bigger,&#34; market conditions dictate it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這不是聯合包裹理想的情景，並且似乎與 “更好而非更大” 不一致，但市場條件決定了這一點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvdXBzLXVzLWRvbWVzdGljLXBhY2thZ2Utc2VnbWVudC1ncm93dGgteW95LTMucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F799067%2Fups-us-domestic-package-segment-growth-yoy-3.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: UPS presentations. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：聯合包裹演示文稿。圖表由作者提供。</p>
</div><p>A lower-interest-rate environment will improve overall package delivery demand and allow UPS to better align its business with its long-term strategy. There's little management can do about its end markets, and the pragmatic approach taken in 2024 -- by taking on lower revenue per piece deliveries -- is a net positive under the circumstances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低利率環境將改善整體包裹交付需求，並使聯合包裹能夠更好地將其業務與長期戰略對齊。管理層對終端市場幾乎無能為力，而在 2024 年採取的務實方法——承擔較低每件收入的交付——在這種情況下是一個淨積極因素。</p>
</div><h2>UPS in 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年的聯合包裹</h2>
</div><p>With lower interest rates in 2025, UPS should be able to finesse a return to its core operating philosophy of growing in its targeted markets and hopefully improve its revenue per piece growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，隨着利率降低，聯合包裹應該能夠巧妙地迴歸其核心運營理念，即在目標市場中增長，並希望改善每件收入的增長。</p>
</div><p>That would be a positive development, because the good news from the third quarter came from its cost-per-piece reduction of 4.1% year over year. Not only is UPS doing an excellent job of cutting costs (the company is cutting 12,000 jobs this year to reduce cost by $1 billion) , it's also lapping the increases in costs associated with the improved labor contract agreed in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這將是一個積極的發展，因為第三季度的好消息來自於每件成本同比降低了 4.1%。聯合包裹不僅在削減成本方面表現出色（公司今年裁員 12,000 人以減少 10 億美元的成本），而且還在應對 2023 年達成的改善勞動合同所帶來的成本增加。</p>
</div><p>Its medium-term plan, outlined in March, calls for ongoing investments in automation and smart facilities to improve network productivity, enabling UPS to consolidate its facilities and reduce cost per piece.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其在 3 月份概述的中期計劃呼籲持續投資於自動化和智能設施，以提高網絡生產力，使聯合包裹能夠整合其設施並降低每件成本。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkwNjcvcmV0aXJlZC1jb3VwbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F799067%2Fretired-couple.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A stock to buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>值得購買的股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>UPS has a lot to gain from a lower-rate environment: Improved pricing power, a potential improvement in revenue per piece while cost per piece is likely to be controlled, and UPS can return to focusing on higher-margin deliveries. It all speaks to a combination of revenue growth and margin expansion next year as the company recovers from a difficult couple of years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯合包裹在低利率環境中有很多好處：改善定價能力，潛在的每件收入改善，同時每件成本可能得到控制，聯合包裹可以重新專注於高利潤的交付。這一切都表明，隨着公司從過去幾年的困難中恢復，明年將實現收入增長和利潤擴張的結合。</p>
</div><p>UPS is far from perfect, and there's no guarantee it will hit its full-year earnings expectations. But on balance, the stock looks like a good value, trading on 15.6 times estimated 2025 earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯合包裹遠非完美，且沒有保證它會達到全年收益預期。但總體來看，這隻股票看起來具有良好的價值，預計 2025 年收益的市盈率為 15.6 倍。</p>
</div>

If the Fed Keeps Cutting Interest Rates, This Stock Could Be a Winner

- UPS 面臨小包裹交付市場過剩和經濟疲軟的挑戰。  
- 預計 2024 年收益將顯著低於管理層預期。  
- 低利率將促進業務增長，改善 UPS 的定價能力和盈利模式。

如果美聯儲繼續降息，這隻股票可能會成為大贏家