<p>隨着我們快速接近 2024 年的結束，是時候開始為新的一年制定財務計劃了。這可能意味着最大化您的退休賬户，完成任何慈善捐款，或者簡單地調整您的月度預算。</p>
<p>但如果您正在投資股市，現在是檢查您的投資組合的關鍵時刻——不僅僅是因為我們即將迎來新的一年。由於股價創下歷史新高，許多投資者擔心我們正處於一個可能即將破裂的泡沫中。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTk0MTIvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWEtY291Y2gtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTk0MTIvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWEtY291Y2gtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>雖然無法確切知道未來幾個月市場會如何變化，但每位投資者現在都應該採取一個重要的行動。</p>
<h2>我們是否面臨市場下滑？</h2>
<p>下一個經濟衰退何時發生尚不清楚，但即使是最強勁的牛市也無法永遠持續。<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 0.24%) 自 2022 年 10 月觸底以來已上漲近 70%，股價在未來幾個月甚至幾年內繼續飆升的可能性依然存在。</p>
<p>儘管如此，現在仍然有充分的理由保持謹慎。雖然一些專家預測美國經濟將在 2025 年實現軟着陸，但根據 2024 年 11 月的數據，紐約聯邦儲備銀行認為我們在未來 12 個月內經歷衰退的可能性為 42%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c1238cc95e47244af4a8cbcf3a9302aa.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c1238cc95e47244af4a8cbcf3a9302aa.png"/></p>
<p>^SPX 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>億萬富翁投資者沃倫·巴菲特也對這樣的時刻發出了警告。在 1999 年，即互聯網泡沫破裂前，他預測市場即將迎來重大下滑。他用來做出這一預測的指標（後來被稱為 “巴菲特指標”）是美國股市總市值與美國國內生產總值（GDP）的比率。</p>
<p>在後來發表在《福布斯》上的一篇文章中，巴菲特解釋道：“如果百分比關係降到 70% 或 80% 的區域，購買股票可能會對您非常有利。如果比率接近 200%——就像 1999 年和 2000 年部分時間那樣——您就是在玩火。”</p>
<p>截至 2024 年 11 月，巴菲特指標剛剛達到 203.09%。雖然這並不是恐慌的理由（巴菲特本人也指出這個指標並不完美），但現在可能是仔細檢查您的投資組合是否穩固的明智時機。</p>
<h2>您現在可以做的最佳投資舉措</h2>
<p>再次強調，未來是否會出現下滑並沒有保證。但做好準備總是有益的，而保護您的投資組合的最佳方法之一是檢查您所持有的每隻股票是否基於穩固的基本面。</p>
<p>在過去兩年中，股票價格一直在飆升，但飆升的股價並不總是意味着一家公司是一個好的投資。一些股票可能會因樂觀情緒而上漲，尤其是當投資者被特定行業或整體市場的炒作所吸引時。</p>
<p>如果一隻股票被高估，它的交易價格顯著高於基於其盈利前景和增長潛力的合理價格。這類股票更可能面臨大幅修正，使其成為潛在的風險投資——尤其是在市場下滑即將來臨時。</p>
<p>因此，現在正是仔細審查您的投資組合並確認每隻股票是否值得保留的最佳時機。如果您發現有些股票不再是強勁的投資，現在可能是趁價格仍然較高而出售的明智機會。</p>
<h2>如何判斷您的股票是否被高估</h2>
<p>判斷一隻股票是否仍然是強勁投資可能很棘手，尤其是考慮到許多因素。</p>
<p>市盈率（P/E）或市盈增長比率（PEG）等指標是一個良好的起點，因為它們可以幫助衡量公司相對於其股價的增長潛力。企業價值與息税折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）的比率是另一個可以讓您瞭解公司盈利潛力的指標。</p>
<p>然而，財務指標並不是判斷一隻股票是否是強勁投資的唯一方法。審視大局，考察行業趨勢和公司的管理團隊也是明智的。無論一家公司在財務上多麼強勁，如果其領導團隊持續做出可疑的決策，例如，它可能沒有能力在艱難的經濟時期生存。</p>
<p>儘管目前股市的未來可能不確定，但沒有理由恐慌。相反，利用這個機會深入研究您的投資，確保每隻股票仍然值得在您的投資組合中佔有一席之地。您現在準備得越充分，未來無論何時出現下滑，您就會越好。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

<p>隨着 2024 年的結束，投資者被建議審查他們的投資組合，因為股票價格高企且市場可能出現下行。自 2022 年 10 月以來，標準普爾 500 指數上漲了近 70%，但專家警告可能會出現衰退，紐約聯邦儲備銀行估計明年衰退的可能性為 42%。沃倫·巴菲特的 “巴菲特指標” 顯示出謹慎的信號，因為它最近達到了 203.09%。投資者應評估股票的基本面，並考慮在 2025 年前出售被高估的股票以降低風險</p>

<p>As we barrel toward the end of 2024, it's time to begin making financial plans for the new year. That could mean maxing out your retirement accounts, finishing up any charitable donations, or simply finessing your monthly budget.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着我們快速接近 2024 年的結束，是時候開始為新的一年制定財務計劃了。這可能意味着最大化您的退休賬户，完成任何慈善捐款，或者簡單地調整您的月度預算。</p>
</div><p>But if you're investing in the stock market, right now is a crucial time to check in on your portfolio -- and not just because we're close to a new year. With stock prices at record highs, many investors are worried that we're in a bubble that could be close to popping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果您正在投資股市，現在是檢查您的投資組合的關鍵時刻——不僅僅是因為我們即將迎來新的一年。由於股價創下歷史新高，許多投資者擔心我們正處於一個可能即將破裂的泡沫中。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTk0MTIvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWEtY291Y2gtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F799412%2Ftwo-people-sitting-on-a-couch-looking-at-a-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>While there's no way to know for certain what the market will do in the coming months, there's one important move every single investor should be making right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然無法確切知道未來幾個月市場會如何變化，但每位投資者現在都應該採取一個重要的行動。</p>
</div><h2>Are we headed for a market downturn?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我們是否面臨市場下滑？</h2>
</div><p>It's unclear when the next slump will happen, but even the strongest bull markets can't last forever. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.24%) has soared by close to 70% since it bottomed out in October 2022, and there's a chance stock prices will continue to surge for many more months or even years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一個經濟衰退何時發生尚不清楚，但即使是最強勁的牛市也無法永遠持續。<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 0.24%) 自 2022 年 10 月觸底以來已上漲近 70%，股價在未來幾個月甚至幾年內繼續飆升的可能性依然存在。</p>
</div><p>That said, there's still good reason to be cautious right now. While some experts predict the U.S. economy will face a soft landing in 2025, the New York Fed maintains that there's a 42% chance we'll experience a recession in the next 12 months, according to November 2024 data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，現在仍然有充分的理由保持謹慎。雖然一些專家預測美國經濟將在 2025 年實現軟着陸，但根據 2024 年 11 月的數據，紐約聯邦儲備銀行認為我們在未來 12 個月內經歷衰退的可能性為 42%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c1238cc95e47244af4a8cbcf3a9302aa.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c1238cc95e47244af4a8cbcf3a9302aa.png"/></p>
<p>^SPX data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>^SPX 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has also issued warnings about times like these. Back in 1999, just ahead of the dot-com bubble burst, he predicted that the market was on the verge of a major downturn. The metric he used to make this prediction (which was later nicknamed the &#34;Buffett indicator&#34;) was the ratio of the total U.S. stock market value to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>億萬富翁投資者沃倫·巴菲特也對這樣的時刻發出了警告。在 1999 年，即互聯網泡沫破裂前，他預測市場即將迎來重大下滑。他用來做出這一預測的指標（後來被稱為 “巴菲特指標”）是美國股市總市值與美國國內生產總值（GDP）的比率。</p>
</div><p>In an essay later published in Forbes, Buffett explained that &#34;[i] f the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200% -- as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 -- you are playing with fire.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在後來發表在《福布斯》上的一篇文章中，巴菲特解釋道：“如果百分比關係降到 70% 或 80% 的區域，購買股票可能會對您非常有利。如果比率接近 200%——就像 1999 年和 2000 年部分時間那樣——您就是在玩火。”</p>
</div><p>As of November 2024, the Buffett indicator just reached 203.09%. While that's no reason to panic (Buffett himself has noted that this metric isn't perfect), right now may be a smart time to double-check that your portfolio is on solid footing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2024 年 11 月，巴菲特指標剛剛達到 203.09%。雖然這並不是恐慌的理由（巴菲特本人也指出這個指標並不完美），但現在可能是仔細檢查您的投資組合是否穩固的明智時機。</p>
</div><h2>The single best investing move you could make right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>您現在可以做的最佳投資舉措</h2>
</div><p>Again, there are no guarantees that a downturn is around the corner. But it never hurts to prepare just in case, and one of the best things you can do to protect your portfolio is to check that each stock you own is based on solid fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再次強調，未來是否會出現下滑並沒有保證。但做好準備總是有益的，而保護您的投資組合的最佳方法之一是檢查您所持有的每隻股票是否基於穩固的基本面。</p>
</div><p>Stocks have been surging over the last two years, but a soaring stock price doesn't always mean that a company is a good investment. Some stocks can ride the wave of optimism, especially if investors are caught up in hype over a particular industry or the market as a whole.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去兩年中，股票價格一直在飆升，但飆升的股價並不總是意味着一家公司是一個好的投資。一些股票可能會因樂觀情緒而上漲，尤其是當投資者被特定行業或整體市場的炒作所吸引時。</p>
</div><p>If a stock is overvalued, it's trading at a price that's significantly higher than it probably should be based on its earnings outlook and growth potential. These types of stocks are more likely to face a substantial correction, making them potentially risky investments -- especially if a market downturn is looming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果一隻股票被高估，它的交易價格顯著高於基於其盈利前景和增長潛力的合理價格。這類股票更可能面臨大幅修正，使其成為潛在的風險投資——尤其是在市場下滑即將來臨時。</p>
</div><p>Right now, then, is the perfect time to comb through your portfolio and double-check that each of your stocks deserves to be there. If you find any that are no longer strong investments, now could be a smart opportunity to sell while prices are still higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，現在正是仔細審查您的投資組合並確認每隻股票是否值得保留的最佳時機。如果您發現有些股票不再是強勁的投資，現在可能是趁價格仍然較高而出售的明智機會。</p>
</div><h2>How to tell whether your stock is overvalued</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如何判斷您的股票是否被高估</h2>
</div><p>It can be tricky to determine whether a stock is still a strong investment, especially when there are so many factors to consider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>判斷一隻股票是否仍然是強勁投資可能很棘手，尤其是考慮到許多因素。</p>
</div><p>Metrics like the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio or price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio are a good place to start, as they can help measure the company's growth potential in comparison to its stock price. The enterprise-value-to-EBITDA is another metric that can give you an idea of where the company's earnings potential stands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率（P/E）或市盈增長比率（PEG）等指標是一個良好的起點，因為它們可以幫助衡量公司相對於其股價的增長潛力。企業價值與息税折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）的比率是另一個可以讓您瞭解公司盈利潛力的指標。</p>
</div><p>Financial metrics aren't the only way to determine whether a stock is a strong investment, though. It's also wise to look at the big picture, examining factors like industry trends and the company's management team. No matter how strong a business may be financially, if its leadership team is consistently making questionable decisions, for example, it may not have what it takes to survive tough economic times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，財務指標並不是判斷一隻股票是否是強勁投資的唯一方法。審視大局，考察行業趨勢和公司的管理團隊也是明智的。無論一家公司在財務上多麼強勁，如果其領導團隊持續做出可疑的決策，例如，它可能沒有能力在艱難的經濟時期生存。</p>
</div><p>The future of the stock market may be uncertain right now, but there's no reason to panic. Rather, it's wise to take this opportunity to do a deep dive into your investments and ensure every stock still deserves a place in your portfolio. The more you prepare now, the better off you'll be whenever the next downturn strikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管目前股市的未來可能不確定，但沒有理由恐慌。相反，利用這個機會深入研究您的投資，確保每隻股票仍然值得在您的投資組合中佔有一席之地。您現在準備得越充分，未來無論何時出現下滑，您就會越好。</p>
</div>

1 Stock Market Move Every Single Investor Should Make Before 2025

- 2024 年末臨近，投資者需檢查投資組合以應對市場波動。  
- 目前標普 500 指數接近歷史高點，巴菲特指標已達 203.09%。  
- 建議投資者審視持股基本面，及時調整以降低風險。  

每位投資者在 2025 年前都應該採取的一個股市行動