<p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN 1.30%) 一直以來都是長期股東的巨大贏家，而其競爭對手 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -0.99%) 也在不斷增強的競爭中表現出色。在過去十年中，這兩隻股票的回報率都遠超 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>，因為它們都受益於全球電子商務的增長，但這兩家公司在市場策略上完全不同。</p>
<p>亞馬遜通過垂直整合電子商務，使購物體驗變得高效。Shopify 則希望成為支持第三方電子商務品牌的最佳軟件和支付層。</p>
<p>隨着投資者進入 2024 年的最後一個月，哪隻股票現在是最佳購買選擇？是時候深入研究這兩隻電子商務股票了。</p>
<h2>Shopify：專注於核心競爭力</h2>
<p>Shopify 的業務在 COVID-19 大流行期間得到了極大的推動。2020 年，收入同比增長達到 100%，這導致公司的股價飆升。</p>
<p>憑藉這一成功，管理層決定在電子商務軟件和支付之外大力投資新服務。這些服務包括物流網絡、機器人技術，甚至是加密貨幣。任何與電子商務和支付相關的服務，Shopify 都在嘗試為其客户開發產品。</p>
<p>在 2022 年和 2023 年，公司意識到自己擴展得過於分散，偏離了核心競爭力。亞馬遜在電子商務物流方面是專家，<strong>UPS</strong> 和 <strong>FedEx</strong> 也是如此。追趕這些競爭對手需要數年時間和數百億美元，而這些資金 Shopify 並不具備。在意識到這一點後，Shopify 決定削減大部分新業務領域，專注於其核心軟件/支付產品，以幫助重新聚焦業務並提高盈利能力。</p>
<p>這一策略取得了極大的成功。收入增長穩定，而利潤和自由現金流則大幅上升。上個季度，收入同比增長 26%，超過 20 億美元。自由現金流利潤率為 19%，而不到兩年前則為負值。預計第四季度的收入增長仍將保持在中 20% 的範圍內。</p>
<p>作為電子商務軟件的主導者，Shopify 可以在未來十年內藉助全球電子商務的東風達到新的高度。我不指望 26% 的收入增長會永遠持續，但看起來公司已經找到了自己的節奏，並達到了投資的最佳點，同時保持了令股東滿意的盈利水平。</p>
<h2>亞馬遜：通過效率獲勝</h2>
<p>如今，你可能會聽到很多電子商務商家抱怨亞馬遜。平台上有太多的贊助列表，太多競爭品牌。</p>
<p>雖然其中一些抱怨可能是事實，但電子商務品牌一次又一次地回到亞馬遜上銷售。為什麼？因為它擁有最有效的倉儲和物流網絡，以及最大的電子商務客户羣。</p>
<p>上個季度，亞馬遜的北美零售銷售同比增長 9%，達到 955 億美元。國際收入的增長速度更快，年增長率為 12%。</p>
<p>在這些銷售中，廣告收入同比增長 19%，這一利潤率高於亞馬遜大多數業務部門。儘管全球範圍內出現了像 Shopify 這樣的競爭平台，但亞馬遜仍然能夠在電子商務領域保持領先，預計在美國市場的份額約為 40%。</p>
<p>與 Shopify 一樣，亞馬遜在支出方面變得更加高效，並開始擴大其利潤率。在過去 12 個月中，亞馬遜的營業利潤率接近 10%，自由現金流為 430 億美元。隨着公司不斷增長高利潤率的廣告等業務，投資者應該期待利潤率繼續擴大。</p>
<p>與 Shopify 相比，這似乎是一個古老而穩重的業務，但亞馬遜的財務數據沒有放緩的跡象。由於其龐大的 6200 億美元收入基礎，它的增長速度不會像 Shopify 那樣快，但在未來幾年，亞馬遜仍有很大的擴展空間，同時也能提高盈利能力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b2ccf0e9f18e6176b6043c7972a89f82.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b2ccf0e9f18e6176b6043c7972a89f82.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 市盈率 (P/E) (前瞻性) 數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>哪隻股票更值得購買？</h2>
<p>比較亞馬遜和 Shopify 是困難的。從某種意義上説，它們都在通過削減成本來經歷類似的財務軌跡，同時證明它們仍然能夠增長並同時產生利潤。Shopify 的業務規模要小得多，但這也是因為它只針對電子商務供應鏈中的幾個環節。</p>
<p>根據其電子商務商家的總支出，Shopify 在美國的電子商務銷售市場份額估計超過 10%，而亞馬遜的市場份額約為 40%。我們不能忘記亞馬遜的雲計算部門，該部門每年產生近 1000 億美元的收入和數十億美元的利潤。</p>
<p>在判斷哪隻股票更值得購買時，簡單的方法是查看它們各自的估值。Shopify 的市值為 1420 億美元，前瞻市盈率 (P/E) 為 86。亞馬遜的前瞻市盈率則顯著較低，僅為 41。</p>
<p>雖然預計在未來五年內，Shopify 的增長速度會略快於亞馬遜，但我認為這並不值得其前瞻市盈率超過競爭對手的兩倍。因此，我認為在今天的價格下，亞馬遜是投資者更好的選擇。</p>

亞馬遜

SHOP

<p>亞馬遜和 Shopify 是兩隻領先的電子商務股票，採用不同的戰略。亞馬遜專注於垂直整合模式，在美國市場佔有 40% 的份額，並在廣告收入方面實現了強勁增長。Shopify 在過度多元化後，重新聚焦於其核心軟件和支付業務，上個季度實現了 26% 的收入增長。這兩家公司都在改善盈利能力，但亞馬遜更大的規模和雲計算部門提供了競爭優勢。投資者正在評估哪隻股票在 2024 年即將到來之際提供了更好的買入機會</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.30%) has famously been a huge winner for long-term shareholders, and so has its increasingly intense competitor <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -0.99%). Both stocks have crushed the returns of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> over the last decade as they rode the tailwind of e-commerce growth around the world, but the two companies have entirely different market strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN 1.30%) 一直以來都是長期股東的巨大贏家，而其競爭對手 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -0.99%) 也在不斷增強的競爭中表現出色。在過去十年中，這兩隻股票的回報率都遠超 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>，因為它們都受益於全球電子商務的增長，但這兩家公司在市場策略上完全不同。</p>
</div><p>Amazon has vertically integrated e-commerce to make it the most efficient experience for shoppers. Shopify wants to be the best software and payment layer to power third-party e-commerce brands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜通過垂直整合電子商務，使購物體驗變得高效。Shopify 則希望成為支持第三方電子商務品牌的最佳軟件和支付層。</p>
</div><p>As investors head into the last month of 2024, which stock is the best buy right now? Time to take a deeper look into these two e-commerce stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着投資者進入 2024 年的最後一個月，哪隻股票現在是最佳購買選擇？是時候深入研究這兩隻電子商務股票了。</p>
</div><h2>Shopify: Focusing on core competencies</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Shopify：專注於核心競爭力</h2>
</div><p>Shopify's business was supercharged by the COVID-19 pandemic. Revenue started to grow 100% year over year in 2020, which caused the company's stock price to rocket higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shopify 的業務在 COVID-19 大流行期間得到了極大的推動。2020 年，收入同比增長達到 100%，這導致公司的股價飆升。</p>
</div><p>With all that success, management decided to invest heavily in new services outside of e-commerce software and payments. These included logistics networks, robotics, and even cryptocurrencies. Name any service relatively attached to the e-commerce and payments landscape, and Shopify was trying to build out products for its customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>憑藉這一成功，管理層決定在電子商務軟件和支付之外大力投資新服務。這些服務包括物流網絡、機器人技術，甚至是加密貨幣。任何與電子商務和支付相關的服務，Shopify 都在嘗試為其客户開發產品。</p>
</div><p>In 2022 and 2023, the company realized it had spread itself too thin and was getting away from its core competencies. Amazon is the expert in e-commerce logistics, as are <strong>UPS</strong> and <strong>FedEx</strong>. It would take years and tens of billions of dollars that Shopify didn't have to catch these competitors. After this realization, Shopify decided to cut most of these new business segments and focus on its core software/payments offerings to help refocus the business and improve profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年和 2023 年，公司意識到自己擴展得過於分散，偏離了核心競爭力。亞馬遜在電子商務物流方面是專家，<strong>UPS</strong> 和 <strong>FedEx</strong> 也是如此。追趕這些競爭對手需要數年時間和數百億美元，而這些資金 Shopify 並不具備。在意識到這一點後，Shopify 決定削減大部分新業務領域，專注於其核心軟件/支付產品，以幫助重新聚焦業務並提高盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>The strategy has worked wonderfully. Revenue growth stabilized, while profits and free cash flow are soaring. Last quarter, revenue grew 26% year over year to more than $2 billion. Free-cash-flow margin was 19%, compared to a negative margin less than two years ago. Revenue growth in the mid-20% range is expected to continue in the fourth quarter, as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一策略取得了極大的成功。收入增長穩定，而利潤和自由現金流則大幅上升。上個季度，收入同比增長 26%，超過 20 億美元。自由現金流利潤率為 19%，而不到兩年前則為負值。預計第四季度的收入增長仍將保持在中 20% 的範圍內。</p>
</div><p>As the dominant player in e-commerce software, Shopify can ride the global e-commerce tailwind to new heights over the next decade. I wouldn't expect 26% revenue growth to continue forever, but it looks like the company has found its groove and hit the sweet spot of investing, while also maintaining a level of profitability that will please shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為電子商務軟件的主導者，Shopify 可以在未來十年內藉助全球電子商務的東風達到新的高度。我不指望 26% 的收入增長會永遠持續，但看起來公司已經找到了自己的節奏，並達到了投資的最佳點，同時保持了令股東滿意的盈利水平。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon: Winning through efficiencies</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亞馬遜：通過效率獲勝</h2>
</div><p>These days, you may hear a lot of e-commerce merchants complain about Amazon. Too many sponsored listings, too many competing brands on the platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，你可能會聽到很多電子商務商家抱怨亞馬遜。平台上有太多的贊助列表，太多競爭品牌。</p>
</div><p>While some of this may be true, e-commerce brands return to selling on Amazon time and time again. Why? Because it has the most efficient warehouse and logistics network, as well as the largest group of e-commerce customers to sell to.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然其中一些抱怨可能是事實，但電子商務品牌一次又一次地回到亞馬遜上銷售。為什麼？因為它擁有最有效的倉儲和物流網絡，以及最大的電子商務客户羣。</p>
</div><p>Last quarter, Amazon's North American retail sales grew 9% year over year to $95.5 billion. International revenue was growing even faster at a 12% annual clip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上個季度，亞馬遜的北美零售銷售同比增長 9%，達到 955 億美元。國際收入的增長速度更快，年增長率為 12%。</p>
</div><p>Within these sales, advertising revenue grew 19% year over year, which is a higher margin than most of Amazon's business segments. Despite competing platforms such as Shopify popping up around the world, Amazon has been able to retain its lead in the e-commerce landscape with an estimated 40% market share in the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這些銷售中，廣告收入同比增長 19%，這一利潤率高於亞馬遜大多數業務部門。儘管全球範圍內出現了像 Shopify 這樣的競爭平台，但亞馬遜仍然能夠在電子商務領域保持領先，預計在美國市場的份額約為 40%。</p>
</div><p>Like Shopify, Amazon has gotten much more efficient with its spending and started expanding its profit margins. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's operating margin was close to 10%, and free cash flow was $43 billion. As the company keeps growing high-margin segments such as advertising, investors should expect profit margins to keep expanding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與 Shopify 一樣，亞馬遜在支出方面變得更加高效，並開始擴大其利潤率。在過去 12 個月中，亞馬遜的營業利潤率接近 10%，自由現金流為 430 億美元。隨着公司不斷增長高利潤率的廣告等業務，投資者應該期待利潤率繼續擴大。</p>
</div><p>It may seem like an old stodgy business, compared to Shopify, but Amazon's financials show no signs of slowing. It won't grow as quickly as Shopify due to its massive $620 billion revenue base, but there's still plenty of room for Amazon to expand in the coming years, while also improving its profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與 Shopify 相比，這似乎是一個古老而穩重的業務，但亞馬遜的財務數據沒有放緩的跡象。由於其龐大的 6200 億美元收入基礎，它的增長速度不會像 Shopify 那樣快，但在未來幾年，亞馬遜仍有很大的擴展空間，同時也能提高盈利能力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b2ccf0e9f18e6176b6043c7972a89f82.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b2ccf0e9f18e6176b6043c7972a89f82.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E) (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 市盈率 (P/E) (前瞻性) 數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Which stock is the better buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>哪隻股票更值得購買？</h2>
</div><p>Comparing Amazon and Shopify is difficult. In some sense, they're both going through similar financial trajectories by trimming costs, but also proving they can still grow and simultaneously generate a profit. Shopify is a much smaller business, but that's because it only targets a few points in the e-commerce supply chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比較亞馬遜和 Shopify 是困難的。從某種意義上説，它們都在通過削減成本來經歷類似的財務軌跡，同時證明它們仍然能夠增長並同時產生利潤。Shopify 的業務規模要小得多，但這也是因為它只針對電子商務供應鏈中的幾個環節。</p>
</div><p>Looking at total spending from its e-commerce merchants, Shopify is estimated to have more than 10% market share of e-commerce sales in the United States, while Amazon's is around 40%. Let's not forget Amazon's cloud computing division, which generates close to $100 billion in annual revenue and tens of billions in profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據其電子商務商家的總支出，Shopify 在美國的電子商務銷售市場份額估計超過 10%，而亞馬遜的市場份額約為 40%。我們不能忘記亞馬遜的雲計算部門，該部門每年產生近 1000 億美元的收入和數十億美元的利潤。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to which stock is a better buy, the simple thing to do is look at their respective valuations. Shopify trades at a market cap of $142 billion and a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 86. Amazon's forward P/E is significantly lower at just 41.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在判斷哪隻股票更值得購買時，簡單的方法是查看它們各自的估值。Shopify 的市值為 1420 億美元，前瞻市盈率 (P/E) 為 86。亞馬遜的前瞻市盈率則顯著較低，僅為 41。</p>
</div><p>While Shopify should grow slightly faster than Amazon over the next five years, I don't think it warrants a forward P/E of more than double its competitor. For this reason, I think Amazon is the better buy for investors at today's prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然預計在未來五年內，Shopify 的增長速度會略快於亞馬遜，但我認為這並不值得其前瞻市盈率超過競爭對手的兩倍。因此，我認為在今天的價格下，亞馬遜是投資者更好的選擇。</p>
</div>

Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Amazon vs. Shopify

- 亞馬遜和 Shopify 在電商領域表現出色，但市場策略不同。  
- Shopify 專注於軟件和支付，近期重回核心業務，收入增長穩定。  
- 亞馬遜憑藉高效的物流網絡和廣告收入保持市場領先，預計利潤將繼續增長。

當前最值得購買的股票：亞馬遜 vs. Shopify