<p><strong>天狼星 XM 控股</strong>(SIRI -0.71%) 的股票在新交易周開始時達到了三個月來的最高點。隨後在週二，由於發佈了 2025 年的問題指引，股價回吐了大部分近期漲幅。這家衞星廣播提供商的股票在消息公佈後暴跌 12%。即使考慮到其慷慨的股息分配，天狼星 XM 在 2024 年已失去了超過一半的市值。</p>
<p>儘管今年股價暴跌，並不是所有投資者都對天狼星 XM 失去了信心。沃倫·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -0.58%)(BRK.B -0.43%) 在兩個月前增持了其股份。巴菲特和他的團隊是否對這家媒體巨頭失去了信心尚未可知，因為第三季度的業績喜憂參半，且 2025 年的指引也不盡如人意。</p>
<p>然而，這家依賴汽車的公司的引擎似乎遭遇的打擊，實際上可能是機會在向我們招手。讓我們仔細看看。</p>
<h2>以全新的視角面對現實</h2>
<p>新的前景雖然嚴峻，但考慮到其近期表現並不完全令人震驚。天狼星 XM 預計明年的收入將達到 85 億美元，比 2024 年預計的 86.75 億美元下降 2%。更糟糕的是，它在萬聖節時下調了 2024 年的收入指引，這已經是過去 45 天內第二次發佈令人失望的財務預測。華爾街的共識是，明年收入將温和回升。</p>
<p>放眼望去：去年收入下降了 0.6%。其 2024 年的預測意味着今年將下降 3.1%。它現在正為 2025 年再次準備 2% 的下滑。</p>
<p>連續三年的收入下降並不美好，但你注意到今年和明年收入下降的幅度在減輕嗎？天狼星 XM 是一家高盈利的公司，正在利用其資金回購股票，支付豐厚的季度股息，並減少債務負擔。時間在它這邊。</p>
<p>是的，像這樣的可擴展模型，固定開銷高而可變費用低，隨着收入和用户數量的下降將會受到影響。它現在預計 2025 年的調整後息税折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）為 26 億美元，低於它對今年的 27 億美元和 2023 年的 28 億美元的預期。天狼星 XM 預計的 11.5 億美元自由現金流遠低於 2022 年創下的 15.5 億美元的紀錄。</p>
<p>它仍在產生十億美元級別的自由現金流。天狼星 XM 預計明年將改善其自由現金流轉化率。它不會消失。它只需要找到音量旋鈕在哪裏。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NzgvZ2V0dHl0cmFmZmljLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NzgvZ2V0dHl0cmFmZmljLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>在淡出時介入</h2>
<p>天狼星 XM 並不完美。股票不會在隔音室裏一分為二。即使是像巴菲特這樣的世代投資者也可能會犯錯。然而，考慮到天狼星 XM 股票目前的水平，至少值得一試。</p>
<p>天狼星 XM 目前服務的 3320 萬用户對產品普遍感到滿意。受眾在不斷縮小，但其每月流失率與過去的流失率相符。這裏的問題在於如何吸引新用户嘗試該平台。</p>
<p>新車銷售市場平淡，以及流媒體應用在連接汽車中無縫播放的日益普及，都是強勁的逆風。然而，這兩種情況都不是永久性的。</p>
<p>隨着汽車貸款利率下降，公司要求員工返回辦公室，汽車銷售可能會回暖。天狼星 XM 在新用户的漏斗中仍然存在缺口，但我非常喜歡它與 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 的新合作，使其衞星廣播平台的流媒體版本本月終於可以作為儀表盤應用在其最受歡迎的車型中使用。</p>
<p>天狼星 XM 並沒有轉變方向。這不是一次扭轉局面的機會。這是一個利用市場潛力的機會，意識到這不是一隻在中立狀態下滾下山坡的失控股票。品牌忠誠度依然存在。</p>
<p>仍有大量資金不斷流入底線。即使在分析師本週忙於下調預期之後，這隻股票的市盈率仍為 8 倍。</p>
<p>天狼星 XM 承諾其股息，目前股息豐厚，達到 4.3%。它預計明年將實現額外的 2 億美元年度節省。該公司計劃在 2025 年再減少 7 億美元的債務。</p>
<p>你可以嘲笑它到 2027 年實現 15 億美元自由現金流的目標，考慮到其近期的下調，但即使是空頭也必須相信，這輛車的油箱裏還有足夠的燃料，能夠在三年內到達那個笑點。今年這隻股票表現慘淡，但如果這隻 2024 年的滯後股在 2025 年成為領頭羊，也不要感到驚訝。</p>

天狼星XM廣播

<p>Sirius XM Holdings 的股票在 2025 年指引令人失望後下跌了 12%，在 2024 年失去了超過一半的價值。儘管如此，伯克希爾·哈撒韋增加了其持股比例，顯示出一些投資者的信心。該公司預計 2025 年收入將下降 2%，而 2024 年則下降了 3.1%。Sirius XM 仍然保持盈利，專注於股票回購和債務減少，同時其 3320 萬的訂閲用户基礎顯示出忠誠度。該股票的前瞻市盈率為 8 倍，股息收益率為 4.3%，儘管面臨當前挑戰，但仍呈現潛在的投資機會</p>

<p>Shares of <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>(SIRI -0.71%) kicked off the new trading week by hitting a three-month high. It would go on to give back most of its recent gains on Tuesday after offering up problematic guidance for 2025. The satellite radio provider's stock would go on to tumble 12% on the news. Sirius XM has now surrendered more than half of its value in 2024, even accounting for its generous dividend distributions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>天狼星 XM 控股</strong>(SIRI -0.71%) 的股票在新交易周開始時達到了三個月來的最高點。隨後在週二，由於發佈了 2025 年的問題指引，股價回吐了大部分近期漲幅。這家衞星廣播提供商的股票在消息公佈後暴跌 12%。即使考慮到其慷慨的股息分配，天狼星 XM 在 2024 年已失去了超過一半的市值。</p>
</div><p>Not all investors have lost faith in Sirius XM despite this year's downpour of stock ticks. Warren Bufett's <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.58%)(BRK.B -0.43%) boosted its position two months ago. It remains to be seen if Buffett and his team have lost heart in the media giant since the mixed third quarter and uninspiring guidance initiation for 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管今年股價暴跌，並不是所有投資者都對天狼星 XM 失去了信心。沃倫·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -0.58%)(BRK.B -0.43%) 在兩個月前增持了其股份。巴菲特和他的團隊是否對這家媒體巨頭失去了信心尚未可知，因為第三季度的業績喜憂參半，且 2025 年的指引也不盡如人意。</p>
</div><p>However, what seems like a knock in this auto-dependent company's engine may actually be opportunity at the door. Let's take a closer look.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這家依賴汽車的公司的引擎似乎遭遇的打擊，實際上可能是機會在向我們招手。讓我們仔細看看。</p>
</div><h2>Facing the music with fresh ears</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>以全新的視角面對現實</h2>
</div><p>The new outlook is rough but not entirely shocking, given its recent performance. Sirius XM is targeting $8.5 billion in revenue for all of next year, down 2% from the $8.675 billion it expects to deliver on the top line in 2024. Making matters worse, it hosed down its 2024 revenue guidance on Halloween, making this the second time in the last 45 days that it puts out a disappointing financial forecast. Wall Street's consensus was eyeing a modest return to revenue growth next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新的前景雖然嚴峻，但考慮到其近期表現並不完全令人震驚。天狼星 XM 預計明年的收入將達到 85 億美元，比 2024 年預計的 86.75 億美元下降 2%。更糟糕的是，它在萬聖節時下調了 2024 年的收入指引，這已經是過去 45 天內第二次發佈令人失望的財務預測。華爾街的共識是，明年收入將温和回升。</p>
</div><p>Zoom out: Revenue declined 0.6% last year. Its 2024 projection translates to a 3.1% slide this year. It's now bracing investors for another 2% step-down come 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>放眼望去：去年收入下降了 0.6%。其 2024 年的預測意味着今年將下降 3.1%。它現在正為 2025 年再次準備 2% 的下滑。</p>
</div><p>Three years of declining revenue is not pretty, but did you catch how the degree of the top-line decline is easing between this year and next? Sirius XM is a highly profitable company that is using its money to buy back shares, pay a generous quarterly dividend, and reduce its debt load. Time is on its side.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>連續三年的收入下降並不美好，但你注意到今年和明年收入下降的幅度在減輕嗎？天狼星 XM 是一家高盈利的公司，正在利用其資金回購股票，支付豐厚的季度股息，並減少債務負擔。時間在它這邊。</p>
</div><p>Yes, a scalable model with high fixed overhead and low variable expenses like this will suffer as revenue and subscriber counts decline. The $2.6 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) it's now expecting in 2025 is less than the $2.7 billion it's modeling for this year and the $2.8 billion it served up in 2023. The $1.15 billion in free cash flow that Sirius XM sees is well shy of the record $1.55 billion it generated back in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，像這樣的可擴展模型，固定開銷高而可變費用低，隨着收入和用户數量的下降將會受到影響。它現在預計 2025 年的調整後息税折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）為 26 億美元，低於它對今年的 27 億美元和 2023 年的 28 億美元的預期。天狼星 XM 預計的 11.5 億美元自由現金流遠低於 2022 年創下的 15.5 億美元的紀錄。</p>
</div><p>It's still generating 10-figure free cash flow. Sirius XM expects to improve its free cash flow conversion next year. It's not going away. It just needs to discover where the volume knob went.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它仍在產生十億美元級別的自由現金流。天狼星 XM 預計明年將改善其自由現金流轉化率。它不會消失。它只需要找到音量旋鈕在哪裏。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NzgvZ2V0dHl0cmFmZmljLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F800678%2Fgettytraffic.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Step in during the fade-out</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在淡出時介入</h2>
</div><p>Sirius XM isn't perfect. Stocks don't break in half in a soundproof chamber. It's quite possible that even a generational investor like Buffett got this wrong. However, with Sirius XM stock at its current level, it's at least worth some tire kicking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天狼星 XM 並不完美。股票不會在隔音室裏一分為二。即使是像巴菲特這樣的世代投資者也可能會犯錯。然而，考慮到天狼星 XM 股票目前的水平，至少值得一試。</p>
</div><p>The 33.2 million subscribers that Sirius XM is still serving are generally happy with the product. The audience keeps shrinking, but its monthly churn rate is in line with where the defection rate has been in the past. The problem here is all about getting new subscribers to try the platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天狼星 XM 目前服務的 3320 萬用户對產品普遍感到滿意。受眾在不斷縮小，但其每月流失率與過去的流失率相符。這裏的問題在於如何吸引新用户嘗試該平台。</p>
</div><p>A ho-hum market for new auto sales and the growing popularity of streaming apps that can seamlessly play in connected cars are strong headwinds. However, neither scenario is written in permanent ink.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新車銷售市場平淡，以及流媒體應用在連接汽車中無縫播放的日益普及，都是強勁的逆風。然而，這兩種情況都不是永久性的。</p>
</div><p>Car sales can pick up now that auto loan interest rates are heading lower and companies are requiring employees to return to the office. There are still holes in the Sirius XM funnel of new users, but I really like its new partnership with <strong>Tesla</strong> to make the streaming version of its satellite radio platform finally available as a dashboard app for its most popular vehicles this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着汽車貸款利率下降，公司要求員工返回辦公室，汽車銷售可能會回暖。天狼星 XM 在新用户的漏斗中仍然存在缺口，但我非常喜歡它與 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 的新合作，使其衞星廣播平台的流媒體版本本月終於可以作為儀表盤應用在其最受歡迎的車型中使用。</p>
</div><p>Sirius XM isn't turning the corner. This isn't a turnaround play. This is an opportunity to cash in on the market's potential realization that this isn't a runaway stock tumbling down a hill in neutral. There's brand loyalty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天狼星 XM 並沒有轉變方向。這不是一次扭轉局面的機會。這是一個利用市場潛力的機會，意識到這不是一隻在中立狀態下滾下山坡的失控股票。品牌忠誠度依然存在。</p>
</div><p>There's a lot of money still trickling all the way down to the bottom line. It's a stock trading for 8 times forward earnings, even after analysts were scrambling with their downward revisions this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仍有大量資金不斷流入底線。即使在分析師本週忙於下調預期之後，這隻股票的市盈率仍為 8 倍。</p>
</div><p>Sirius XM is committed to its dividend that now stands at a bountiful 4.3%. It sees another $200 million in incremental annual savings next year. The company is targeting another $700 million in debt reduction in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天狼星 XM 承諾其股息，目前股息豐厚，達到 4.3%。它預計明年將實現額外的 2 億美元年度節省。該公司計劃在 2025 年再減少 7 億美元的債務。</p>
</div><p>You can laugh at its goal of delivering $1.5 billion in free cash flow by 2027, given its recent checkdowns, but even bears have to believe that there's enough gas in this tank to make it to that punchline in three years. The stock has been brutal this year, but don't be surprised if this 2024 laggard is a leader in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可以嘲笑它到 2027 年實現 15 億美元自由現金流的目標，考慮到其近期的下調，但即使是空頭也必須相信，這輛車的油箱裏還有足夠的燃料，能夠在三年內到達那個笑點。今年這隻股票表現慘淡，但如果這隻 2024 年的滯後股在 2025 年成為領頭羊，也不要感到驚訝。</p>
</div>

天狼星 XM 廣播的股票能否從週二 12% 的跌幅中反彈？