<p>自互聯網出現以來大約三十年，華爾街上從未缺乏引發熱議的下一個大趨勢和創新。一些例子包括基因組解碼、3D 打印和元宇宙。然而，沒有任何創新的飛躍能夠與人工智能（AI）所能帶來的潛在市場相媲美。</p>
<p>在《Sizing the Prize》中，普華永道的分析師預測，到 2030 年，人工智能將為全球國內生產總值增加 15.7 萬億美元。15.7 萬億美元的市場足以容納這一領域長長的直接和間接贏家名單。</p>
<p>但在過去兩年中，毫無疑問，半導體巨頭 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -1.41%）是人工智能崛起的主要受益者。百萬美元的問題是：“公司的股價是否會繼續反映這一點？”</p>
<p>如果歷史有話要説，那就別指望了。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NDkvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NDkvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>人工智能革命使 Nvidia 在過去兩年幾乎不可阻擋</h2>
<p>自 2023 年初以來，Nvidia 的市值接近增加了 3 萬億美元。雖然其他企業也曾跨越 3 萬億美元的門檻，包括 <strong>Apple</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>，但沒有一家企業能在不到兩年的時間內獲得 3 萬億美元的市值增長。</p>
<p>Nvidia 驚人反彈的明顯催化劑是其硬件，已成為高計算數據中心的 “大腦”。Nvidia 的 H100 圖形處理單元（GPU），通常被稱為 “Hopper”，在人工智能加速的數據中心中獲得了幾乎壟斷的市場份額。</p>
<p>Nvidia 在創新方面也持續獲勝。其後續產品 Blackwell GPU 旨在提高六個領域的計算速度，包括量子計算和生成式人工智能解決方案，並且將比其前身芯片更節能。從計算速度的角度來看，沒有其他 GPU 開發者能夠接近將 Nvidia 趕下台。</p>
<p>該公司還利用對人工智能芯片的強勁需求及其持續稀缺性來謀取利益。Nvidia 的 Hopper 芯片的價格在 30,000 到 40,000 美元之間，這比 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 的 Insight MI300X AI-GPU 的淨售價高出一到四倍。Nvidia 能夠要求並獲得其硬件的溢價價格，幫助提升了其毛利率。</p>
<p>最後，Nvidia 的 CUDA 軟件平台作為吸引客户不斷迴歸的誘餌。CUDA 是開發者用於構建大型語言模型並最大化其 Nvidia GPU 計算潛力的工具包。它確保企業客户留在其產品和服務的生態系統內。</p>
<p>但儘管 Nvidia 的情況幾乎完美，歷史表明它們即將面臨極大的挑戰。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NDkvbWFnbmlmaXlpbmctZ2xhc3MtZmluYW5jaWFsLW5ld3NwYXBlci1tYXJrZXQtZGF0YS1zdG9ja3MtZWNvbm9teS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NDkvbWFnbmlmaXlpbmctZ2xhc3MtZmluYW5jaWFsLW5ld3NwYXBlci1tYXJrZXQtZGF0YS1zdG9ja3MtZWNvbm9teS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>歷史為 Nvidia 的未來提供了清晰的圖景</h2>
<p>人工智能的長期前景看起來光明。人工智能驅動的軟件和系統在其指定任務上變得更加高效，以及不斷學習新技能的能力，使得這項技術在全球大多數行業中具有實用性。然而，人工智能和 Nvidia 的短期前景並不那麼樂觀。</p>
<p>如前所述，互聯網大約三十年前開始改善企業的增長軌跡。它使企業能夠超越其實體店，導致了企業對企業電子商務革命的興起。</p>
<p>但互聯網帶來的長期成功並非沒有早期的泡沫破裂事件。互聯網泡沫摧毀了許多早期企業，並使 <strong>Nasdaq 綜合指數</strong> 從高峰到低谷幾乎下跌了 78%。</p>
<p>雖然這聽起來像是華爾街對下一個大趨勢創新的非理性繁榮的誇張例子，但歷史告訴我們，過去 30 年的每一項顛覆性技術和趨勢最終（關鍵字！）都經歷了早期的泡沫。其他一些引人注目的趨勢，無論它們最終是成功還是失敗，都導致了泡沫破裂事件，包括：</p>
<ul>
<li>基因組解碼</li>
<li>美國住房</li>
<li>中國股票</li>
<li>納米技術</li>
<li>3D 打印</li>
<li>電動汽車</li>
<li>大麻</li>
<li>區塊鏈技術</li>
<li>元宇宙</li>
</ul>
<p>再説一次，這並不是對上述任何創新、技術或趨勢的長期潛力進行評判，也不以任何方式預示人工智能在長期內的成功或失敗。它所顯示的是，所有下一個大趨勢的創新和趨勢都需要時間來成熟——<em>毫無例外</em>。</p>
<p>目前，大多數積極投資其人工智能數據中心的企業都是為了獲得先發優勢。問題在於，這些企業大多數並沒有具體的想法如何利用人工智能來產生正回報。這幾乎證實了投資者再次高估了新創新被消費者和/或企業採用的速度。</p>
<p>在泡沫破裂事件中，潛在顛覆性創新或趨勢的市場領導者的歷史高峰到低谷的下降並不美觀。3D 打印和大麻的前領導者從各自的歷史高點損失了 95% 到 99% 的價值。</p>
<p>擁有成熟運營的公司表現稍好，但仍然受到重創。例如，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 近 98% 的收入來自其市場領先的社交媒體網站上的廣告，包括 Facebook、Instagram 和 WhatsApp。當投資者意識到將元宇宙變現需要數年時間並且前期成本相當高時，Meta 的股價在高峰到低谷之間損失了近 80% 的價值，隨後反彈至新的歷史高點。</p>
<p>與 Meta 類似，英偉達擁有多個成熟的運營部門，包括銷售用於 PC 遊戲和加密貨幣挖礦的 GPU，以及提供虛擬化軟件。這些部門為英偉達提供了一個底線，應該能防止其像 3D 打印和大麻股票那樣遭受重創。</p>
<p>但與此同時，歷史告訴我們，當早期泡沫破裂時，市場領導者的價值損失通常在 80% 左右，甚至更多。至少，歷史預示着未來幾年英偉達的股價將減半，甚至更多。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達在人工智能熱潮中獲得了顯著收益，自 2023 年以來市值增加了近 1 萬億美元，這主要得益於其主導的 GPU 技術。然而，歷史趨勢表明，該公司可能面臨挑戰，類似於過去的科技泡沫。儘管人工智能的長期前景依然積極，但英偉達的短期前景可能會面臨困難，因為投資於人工智能的公司可能難以實現投資回報，這暗示着潛在的市場修正</p>

<p>Since the advent of the internet roughly three decades ago, there has been no shortage of next-big-thing trends and innovations generating buzz on Wall Street. Some examples include genome decoding, 3D printing, and the metaverse. However, no leap forward in innovation has come close to rivaling the addressable potential for artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自互聯網出現以來大約三十年，華爾街上從未缺乏引發熱議的下一個大趨勢和創新。一些例子包括基因組解碼、3D 打印和元宇宙。然而，沒有任何創新的飛躍能夠與人工智能（AI）所能帶來的潛在市場相媲美。</p>
</div><p>In <em>Sizing the Prize</em>, the analysts at PwC forecast that AI would add $15.7 trillion to global gross domestic product by 2030. A $15.7 trillion market is large enough to accommodate a long list of direct and indirect winners in this space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在《Sizing the Prize》中，普華永道的分析師預測，到 2030 年，人工智能將為全球國內生產總值增加 15.7 萬億美元。15.7 萬億美元的市場足以容納這一領域長長的直接和間接贏家名單。</p>
</div><p>But over the last two years, there's no question that semiconductor colossus <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.41%) has the prime beneficiary of the rise of AI. The million-dollar question is, &#34;Will the company's share price continue to reflect it?&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在過去兩年中，毫無疑問，半導體巨頭 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -1.41%）是人工智能崛起的主要受益者。百萬美元的問題是：“公司的股價是否會繼續反映這一點？”</p>
</div><p>If history gets its say, don't count on it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果歷史有話要説，那就別指望了。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NDkvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F800649%2Fstock-chart-crash-invest-broker-tablet-crypto-plunge-bubble-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The AI revolution has made Nvidia virtually unstoppable for two years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能革命使 Nvidia 在過去兩年幾乎不可阻擋</h2>
</div><p>Since the start of 2023, Nvidia has gained close to $3 trillion in market value. While other businesses have crossed the $3 trillion plateau before, including <strong>Apple</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, none have come close to gaining $3 trillion in market value in less than two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2023 年初以來，Nvidia 的市值接近增加了 3 萬億美元。雖然其他企業也曾跨越 3 萬億美元的門檻，包括 <strong>Apple</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>，但沒有一家企業能在不到兩年的時間內獲得 3 萬億美元的市值增長。</p>
</div><p>The clear catalyst behind Nvidia's stunning rally is its hardware, which has become the &#34;brains&#34; of high-compute data centers. Nvidia's H100 graphics processing unit (GPU), which is commonly referred to as the &#34;Hopper,&#34; has earned a near-monopoly share of the GPUs deployed by businesses in AI-accelerated data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 驚人反彈的明顯催化劑是其硬件，已成為高計算數據中心的 “大腦”。Nvidia 的 H100 圖形處理單元（GPU），通常被稱為 “Hopper”，在人工智能加速的數據中心中獲得了幾乎壟斷的市場份額。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia continues to win with its innovation, as well. The successor Blackwell GPU is designed to increase computing speed in six areas, including quantum computing and generative AI solutions, and is going to be more energy-efficient than its predecessor chip. No other GPU developers are particularly close to dethroning Nvidia from the standpoint of computing speed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 在創新方面也持續獲勝。其後續產品 Blackwell GPU 旨在提高六個領域的計算速度，包括量子計算和生成式人工智能解決方案，並且將比其前身芯片更節能。從計算速度的角度來看，沒有其他 GPU 開發者能夠接近將 Nvidia 趕下台。</p>
</div><p>The company is using overwhelming demand for AI chips and their ongoing scarcity to its advantage, too. Nvidia's Hopper chip has been commanding a price of $30,000 to $40,000, which is anywhere from double to quadruple the price <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> has been netting for its Insight MI300X AI-GPUs. Nvidia's ability to ask for and receive a premium price for its hardware has helped to pump up its gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司還利用對人工智能芯片的強勁需求及其持續稀缺性來謀取利益。Nvidia 的 Hopper 芯片的價格在 30,000 到 40,000 美元之間，這比 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 的 Insight MI300X AI-GPU 的淨售價高出一到四倍。Nvidia 能夠要求並獲得其硬件的溢價價格，幫助提升了其毛利率。</p>
</div><p>To wrap things up in a nice bow, Nvidia's CUDA software platform has served as the lure that keeps customers coming back for more. CUDA is the toolkit used by developers to build large language models and maximize the computing potential of their Nvidia GPUs. It ensures that enterprise clients stay within its ecosystem of products and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，Nvidia 的 CUDA 軟件平台作為吸引客户不斷迴歸的誘餌。CUDA 是開發者用於構建大型語言模型並最大化其 Nvidia GPU 計算潛力的工具包。它確保企業客户留在其產品和服務的生態系統內。</p>
</div><p>But while things have been close to perfect for Nvidia, history suggests they're about to get incredibly challenging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但儘管 Nvidia 的情況幾乎完美，歷史表明它們即將面臨極大的挑戰。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NDkvbWFnbmlmaXlpbmctZ2xhc3MtZmluYW5jaWFsLW5ld3NwYXBlci1tYXJrZXQtZGF0YS1zdG9ja3MtZWNvbm9teS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F800649%2Fmagnifiying-glass-financial-newspaper-market-data-stocks-economy-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>History offers a crystal-clear picture of what's to come for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歷史為 Nvidia 的未來提供了清晰的圖景</h2>
</div><p>The long-term outlook for artificial intelligence appears bright. The ability for AI-driven software and systems to become more proficient at their assigned tasks, as well as evolve to learn new skills, gives this technology utility in most industries around the globe. However, the near-term outlook for AI and Nvidia isn't as rosy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能的長期前景看起來光明。人工智能驅動的軟件和系統在其指定任務上變得更加高效，以及不斷學習新技能的能力，使得這項技術在全球大多數行業中具有實用性。然而，人工智能和 Nvidia 的短期前景並不那麼樂觀。</p>
</div><p>As noted, the internet began changing the corporate growth trajectory for the better roughly three decades ago. It allowed businesses to move beyond their storefronts, leading to the business-to-businesses e-commerce revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，互聯網大約三十年前開始改善企業的增長軌跡。它使企業能夠超越其實體店，導致了企業對企業電子商務革命的興起。</p>
</div><p>But the long-term success spurred by the internet didn't come without an early stage bubble-bursting event. The dot-com bubble wiped out a number of early stage businesses and slashed nearly 78% off of the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> on a peak-to-trough basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但互聯網帶來的長期成功並非沒有早期的泡沫破裂事件。互聯網泡沫摧毀了許多早期企業，並使 <strong>Nasdaq 綜合指數</strong> 從高峰到低谷幾乎下跌了 78%。</p>
</div><p>While this might sound like an exaggerated example of irrational exuberance on Wall Street for a next-big-thing innovation, history shows us that every game-changing technology and trend for the last 30 years has, <em>eventually</em> (key word!), worked its way through an early stage bubble. Other examples of buzzy trends that, regardless of whether they succeeded or fizzled out over the long run, resulted in bubble-bursting events include:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這聽起來像是華爾街對下一個大趨勢創新的非理性繁榮的誇張例子，但歷史告訴我們，過去 30 年的每一項顛覆性技術和趨勢最終（關鍵字！）都經歷了早期的泡沫。其他一些引人注目的趨勢，無論它們最終是成功還是失敗，都導致了泡沫破裂事件，包括：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Genome decoding</li>
<li>U.S. housing</li>
<li>China stocks</li>
<li>Nanotechnology</li>
<li>3D printing</li>
<li>Electric vehicles</li>
<li>Cannabis</li>
<li>Blockchain technology</li>
<li>The metaverse</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>基因組解碼</li>
<li>美國住房</li>
<li>中國股票</li>
<li>納米技術</li>
<li>3D 打印</li>
<li>電動汽車</li>
<li>大麻</li>
<li>區塊鏈技術</li>
<li>元宇宙</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Again, this isn't passing judgment on the long-term potential of any of the above innovations, technologies, or trends, nor does it in any way portend success or failure for artificial intelligence over the long run. What it does show is that all next-big-thing innovations and trends need time to mature -- <em>without exception</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再説一次，這並不是對上述任何創新、技術或趨勢的長期潛力進行評判，也不以任何方式預示人工智能在長期內的成功或失敗。它所顯示的是，所有下一個大趨勢的創新和趨勢都需要時間來成熟——<em>毫無例外</em>。</p>
</div><p>At the moment, a majority of the businesses investing aggressively in their AI data centers are doing so to gain first-mover advantages. The issue is that most of these businesses have no concrete idea how they're going to utilize AI to generate a positive return on their AI investments. This all but confirms the notion that investors have, once again, overestimated how quickly a new innovation will be adopted by consumers and/or businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，大多數積極投資其人工智能數據中心的企業都是為了獲得先發優勢。問題在於，這些企業大多數並沒有具體的想法如何利用人工智能來產生正回報。這幾乎證實了投資者再次高估了新創新被消費者和/或企業採用的速度。</p>
</div><p>The historic peak-to-trough decline for market leaders of a potentially game-changing innovation or trend during a bubble-bursting event isn't pretty. Former leaders in 3D printing and cannabis shed anywhere from 95% to 99% of their value from their respective all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在泡沫破裂事件中，潛在顛覆性創新或趨勢的市場領導者的歷史高峰到低谷的下降並不美觀。3D 打印和大麻的前領導者從各自的歷史高點損失了 95% 到 99% 的價值。</p>
</div><p>Companies with established operations fared a bit better, but were still hit hard. For instance, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> generates close to 98% of its revenue from advertising on its market-leading social media sites, including Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. When investors came to the realization that monetizing the metaverse would take years and cost quite a bit upfront, shares of Meta lost close to 80% of their value on a peak-to-trough basis before rebounding to fresh record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>擁有成熟運營的公司表現稍好，但仍然受到重創。例如，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 近 98% 的收入來自其市場領先的社交媒體網站上的廣告，包括 Facebook、Instagram 和 WhatsApp。當投資者意識到將元宇宙變現需要數年時間並且前期成本相當高時，Meta 的股價在高峰到低谷之間損失了近 80% 的價值，隨後反彈至新的歷史高點。</p>
</div><p>Similar to Meta, Nvidia has a number of established operating segments, including selling GPUs for PC gaming and cryptocurrency mining, as well as providing virtualization software. These segments provide a floor that should keep Nvidia from getting clobbered like 3D printing and cannabis stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與 Meta 類似，英偉達擁有多個成熟的運營部門，包括銷售用於 PC 遊戲和加密貨幣挖礦的 GPU，以及提供虛擬化軟件。這些部門為英偉達提供了一個底線，應該能防止其像 3D 打印和大麻股票那樣遭受重創。</p>
</div><p>But at the same time, history tells us that market leaders have lost in the neighborhood of 80% of its value, if not more, when the early stage bubble bursts. At the very least, history foreshadows a halving, if not more, in Nvidia's share price in the years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但與此同時，歷史告訴我們，當早期泡沫破裂時，市場領導者的價值損失通常在 80% 左右，甚至更多。至少，歷史預示着未來幾年英偉達的股價將減半，甚至更多。</p>
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Is Nvidia Going to Plunge 50% (or More)? History Offers a Very Clear Answer.

- 人工智能預計到 2030 年將為全球 GDP 增加 7 萬億美元。  
- Nvidia 在 AI 崛起中成為主要受益者，市值增長近 1 萬億美元。  
- 歷史表明，市場領導者在泡沫破裂時可能損失 80% 以上的價值。

英偉達會暴跌 50%（或更多）嗎？歷史給出了一個非常明確的答案