<p>美國聯邦儲備委員會有兩個主要目標：維持消費者物價指數（CPI）約 2% 的年化通脹率，以及保持經濟充分就業（儘管沒有具體的失業率目標）。</p>
<p>為了抑制因疫情相關刺激措施和經濟干擾導致的通脹飆升，美聯儲在 2022 年 3 月至 2023 年 8 月之間將聯邦基金利率（隔夜利率）提高至 20 年來的最高點 5.33%。</p>
<p>但隨着 CPI 終於回落，美聯儲在今年 9 月和 11 月降息。中央銀行將在 12 月 18 日發佈 2024 年的最終利率決定。以下是華爾街的預測。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA3NjYvYS1waG90by1vZi1hLXBvZGl1bS13aXRoLXRoZS1mZWRlcmFsLXJlc2VydmUtZW1ibGVtLW9uLXRoZS1mcm9udC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA3NjYvYS1waG90by1vZi1hLXBvZGl1bS13aXRoLXRoZS1mZWRlcmFsLXJlc2VydmUtZW1ibGVtLW9uLXRoZS1mcm9udC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>這是美聯儲在 9 月和 11 月降息的原因</h2>
<p>美國政府在 2020 年和 2021 年向經濟注入了數萬億美元，同時，美聯儲將聯邦基金利率削減至接近 0% 的歷史低點。這些舉措旨在通過鼓勵消費者支出以支持經濟，從而抵消疫情的影響。</p>
<p>貨幣供應的快速增加加上超寬鬆的貨幣政策可能會導致嚴重的通脹。然而，供應鏈中斷也導致價格飆升，因為全球工廠關閉以阻止 COVID-19 的傳播。這一系列因素使得 CPI 在 2022 年飆升至 40 年來的最高點 8.0%。</p>
<p>正如我之前提到的，美聯儲採取了一系列激進的加息措施。幸運的是，這一政策奏效，因為最近的 CPI 數據（2024 年 11 月）年化率為 2.7%，非常接近美聯儲的目標。</p>
<p>此外，失業率在今年逐漸上升。目前失業率為 4.2%，而 2024 年初為 3.7%，這可能是就業市場正在放緩的跡象。</p>
<p>美聯儲不想因利率過高而導致經濟衰退，這就是為什麼它在 9 月將聯邦基金利率下調 50 個基點，隨後在 11 月再下調 25 個基點。</p>
<h2>根據華爾街的預測，12 月幾乎可以確定會降息</h2>
<p>幾家華爾街銀行預測美聯儲下週將再降息 25 個基點。<strong>摩根士丹利</strong>、<strong>高盛</strong>、<strong>富國銀行</strong> 和 <strong>花旗集團</strong> 等銀行巨頭均在此列。</p>
<p><strong>CME 集團</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具也表明 12 月降息的概率為 98%。它使用來自聯邦基金期貨市場的數據來計算這一概率——換句話説，它很好地反映了交易員和投資者對美聯儲下次會議的預期。</p>
<p>然而，2025 年進一步降息的預期大幅下降。FedWatch 工具預測明年將有兩次 25 個基點的降息，這遠低於美聯儲在 9 月發佈的經濟預測摘要中預測的五次降息。</p>
<p>CPI 仍未達到 2%，而國內生產總值（GDP）仍以年化 2.8% 的速度增長，遠高於過去 10 年的平均水平 2.3%。這可能是交易員降低降息預期的兩個原因。</p>
<p>美聯儲每季度發佈一次新的經濟預測摘要，因此投資者將在下週的 12 月會議後獲得一組新的數據。觀察中央銀行是否仍然認為 2025 年需要五次降息，或者是否像市場一樣下調了預測，將是非常重要的。</p>
<h2>從長遠來看，降息通常對股票有利</h2>
<p>利率下降可以通過幾種方式使股票市場投資者受益。它們允許公司借入更多資金以推動增長，同時降低債務服務成本。這兩個因素都可以提升公司的盈利。此外，較低的利率將降低現金和政府國債等無風險資產的收益率，從而推動更多投資者進入股票市場，導致價格上漲。</p>
<p>但投資者不希望看到美聯儲因經濟疲軟而大幅降息。例如，如果就業市場進一步惡化，這可能導致消費者支出下降，從而影響企業盈利。由於盈利推動股票價格，這可能導致基準指數如 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC -0.00%) 在美聯儲降息時仍然下跌。</p>
<p>目前美國沒有明顯的經濟衰退跡象，但自 1960 年代以來，幾乎每個加息週期後都伴隨着經濟衰退。高利率時期可能對經濟產生滯後影響，因此我們可能尚未看到美聯儲在 2022 年和 2023 年加息週期的所有負面影響。</p>
<p>以下是聯邦基金利率的圖表，衰退期以灰色突出顯示。它清楚地説明了高利率時期如何經常在經濟衰退之前出現：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9e5f0c8b1c1d86561ecad7759e076d5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9e5f0c8b1c1d86561ecad7759e076d5.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>也就是説，如果美國確實經歷了一場導致股市下跌的經濟衰退，那幾乎肯定會是一個買入機會。歷史表明，標準普爾 500 指數在長期內總是會達到新高，因此投資者不應因短期疲軟而退縮。</p>

芝加哥商品交易所

<p>美國聯邦儲備委員會預計將在 12 月再次降息，此前在 9 月和 11 月已經進行了降息。華爾街預測將減少 25 個基點，根據 CME 集團的 FedWatch 工具，降息的概率為 98%。美聯儲的舉措旨在管理通貨膨脹，目前通貨膨脹率已降至 2.7%，而失業率上升至 4.2%。儘管降息通常有利於股市，但人們仍對可能影響消費者支出和企業盈利的經濟衰退表示擔憂</p>

<p>The U.S. Federal Reserve has two main objectives: Maintaining an annualized inflation rate of around 2%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and keeping the economy operating at full employment (although it doesn't have a specific target for the unemployment rate).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國聯邦儲備委員會有兩個主要目標：維持消費者物價指數（CPI）約 2% 的年化通脹率，以及保持經濟充分就業（儘管沒有具體的失業率目標）。</p>
</div><p>The Fed hiked the federal funds rate (overnight interest rates) to a two-decade high of 5.33% between Mar. 2022 and Aug. 2023, in order to tame an inflation surge that resulted from pandemic-related stimulus measures and disruptions to the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了抑制因疫情相關刺激措施和經濟干擾導致的通脹飆升，美聯儲在 2022 年 3 月至 2023 年 8 月之間將聯邦基金利率（隔夜利率）提高至 20 年來的最高點 5.33%。</p>
</div><p>But with the CPI finally trending back down, the Fed cut rates in September and November this year. The central bank will issue its final rate decision for 2024 on Dec. 18. Here's what Wall Street predicts will happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但隨着 CPI 終於回落，美聯儲在今年 9 月和 11 月降息。中央銀行將在 12 月 18 日發佈 2024 年的最終利率決定。以下是華爾街的預測。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA3NjYvYS1waG90by1vZi1hLXBvZGl1bS13aXRoLXRoZS1mZWRlcmFsLXJlc2VydmUtZW1ibGVtLW9uLXRoZS1mcm9udC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F800766%2Fa-photo-of-a-podium-with-the-federal-reserve-emblem-on-the-front.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Here's why the Fed cut rates in September and November</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這是美聯儲在 9 月和 11 月降息的原因</h2>
</div><p>The U.S. government injected trillions of dollars into the economy during 2020 and 2021, while at the same time, the Fed slashed the federal funds rate to a historic low of near 0%. The moves were designed to counteract the effects of the pandemic by encouraging consumer spending to support the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國政府在 2020 年和 2021 年向經濟注入了數萬億美元，同時，美聯儲將聯邦基金利率削減至接近 0% 的歷史低點。這些舉措旨在通過鼓勵消費者支出以支持經濟，從而抵消疫情的影響。</p>
</div><p>A rapid increase in money supply combined with ultra-loose monetary policy can be very inflationary. However, supply chain disruptions also sent prices soaring because factories closed around the world in order to stop the spread of COVID-19. That cocktail of forces sent the CPI rocketing to a 40-year high of 8.0% in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>貨幣供應的快速增加加上超寬鬆的貨幣政策可能會導致嚴重的通脹。然而，供應鏈中斷也導致價格飆升，因為全球工廠關閉以阻止 COVID-19 的傳播。這一系列因素使得 CPI 在 2022 年飆升至 40 年來的最高點 8.0%。</p>
</div><p>As I mentioned earlier, the Fed reacted with a series of aggressive rate hikes. Thankfully, the policy worked because the most recent CPI reading (Nov. 2024) came in at an annualized rate of 2.7%, which is very close to the Fed's target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我之前提到的，美聯儲採取了一系列激進的加息措施。幸運的是，這一政策奏效，因為最近的 CPI 數據（2024 年 11 月）年化率為 2.7%，非常接近美聯儲的目標。</p>
</div><p>Plus, the unemployment rate gradually ticked higher throughout this year. It currently sits at 4.2% after starting 2024 at 3.7%, which could be a sign the jobs market is softening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，失業率在今年逐漸上升。目前失業率為 4.2%，而 2024 年初為 3.7%，這可能是就業市場正在放緩的跡象。</p>
</div><p>The Fed doesn't want to cause a recession by leaving rates too high for too long, which is why it cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points in September, followed by another 25 basis points in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲不想因利率過高而導致經濟衰退，這就是為什麼它在 9 月將聯邦基金利率下調 50 個基點，隨後在 11 月再下調 25 個基點。</p>
</div><h2>A cut is almost certain in December, according to Wall Street</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>根據華爾街的預測，12 月幾乎可以確定會降息</h2>
</div><p>Several Wall Street banks are forecasting another 25-basis-point cut from the Fed next week. <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong>, <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong>, <strong>Wells Fargo</strong>, and <strong>Citigroup</strong> are just some of the banking giants on that list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾家華爾街銀行預測美聯儲下週將再降息 25 個基點。<strong>摩根士丹利</strong>、<strong>高盛</strong>、<strong>富國銀行</strong> 和 <strong>花旗集團</strong> 等銀行巨頭均在此列。</p>
</div><p>The <strong>CME Group</strong>'s FedWatch tool also suggests there is a 98% chance of a cut in December. It uses data from the Fed Funds Futures market to calculate that probability -- in other words, it's a good reflection of what traders and investors think the Fed will do at its next meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>CME 集團</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具也表明 12 月降息的概率為 98%。它使用來自聯邦基金期貨市場的數據來計算這一概率——換句話説，它很好地反映了交易員和投資者對美聯儲下次會議的預期。</p>
</div><p>However, expectations for further cuts in 2025 have fallen dramatically. The FedWatch tool predicts two 25 basis-point cuts next year, which is significantly less than the <em>five</em> cuts forecast by the Fed itself when it issued its summary of economic projections in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，2025 年進一步降息的預期大幅下降。FedWatch 工具預測明年將有兩次 25 個基點的降息，這遠低於美聯儲在 9 月發佈的經濟預測摘要中預測的五次降息。</p>
</div><p>The CPI still hasn't hit 2%, and gross domestic product (GDP) is still growing at an annualized rate of 2.8%, which is way above its average of 2.3% over the last 10 years. Those might be two reasons why traders have trimmed their expectations for rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CPI 仍未達到 2%，而國內生產總值（GDP）仍以年化 2.8% 的速度增長，遠高於過去 10 年的平均水平 2.3%。這可能是交易員降低降息預期的兩個原因。</p>
</div><p>The Fed issues a new summary of economic projections every quarter, so investors will have a fresh set of data to digest following the December meeting next week. It will be important to see whether the central bank still believes five cuts will be necessary in 2025 or if it revised its forecast down the same way the market did.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲每季度發佈一次新的經濟預測摘要，因此投資者將在下週的 12 月會議後獲得一組新的數據。觀察中央銀行是否仍然認為 2025 年需要五次降息，或者是否像市場一樣下調了預測，將是非常重要的。</p>
</div><h2>Rate cuts are typically good for stocks in the long run</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>從長遠來看，降息通常對股票有利</h2>
</div><p>Falling interest rates can benefit stock market investors in a few ways. They allow companies to borrow more money to fuel their growth while reducing their debt servicing costs. Both factors can boost their earnings. Plus, lower rates will reduce the yield on risk-free assets like cash and government Treasury bonds, which pushes more investors into stocks, thus leading to higher prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率下降可以通過幾種方式使股票市場投資者受益。它們允許公司借入更多資金以推動增長，同時降低債務服務成本。這兩個因素都可以提升公司的盈利。此外，較低的利率將降低現金和政府國債等無風險資產的收益率，從而推動更多投資者進入股票市場，導致價格上漲。</p>
</div><p>But investors don't want to see the Fed slashing interest rates because of a weak economy. If the jobs market deteriorates further, for example, that could lead to a drop in consumer spending, which would dent corporate earnings. Since earnings drive stock prices, that might result in a drop in benchmark indexes like the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.00%) even while the Fed is cutting rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投資者不希望看到美聯儲因經濟疲軟而大幅降息。例如，如果就業市場進一步惡化，這可能導致消費者支出下降，從而影響企業盈利。由於盈利推動股票價格，這可能導致基準指數如 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC -0.00%) 在美聯儲降息時仍然下跌。</p>
</div><p>There is no concrete sign of an economic downturn in the U.S. right now, but since the 1960s, almost every rate hiking cycle has been followed by a recession. Periods of high interest rates can have a lagging effect on the economy, so it's possible we haven't seen all of the negative impacts of the Fed's rate-hiking cycle from 2022 and 2023 just yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前美國沒有明顯的經濟衰退跡象，但自 1960 年代以來，幾乎每個加息週期後都伴隨着經濟衰退。高利率時期可能對經濟產生滯後影響，因此我們可能尚未看到美聯儲在 2022 年和 2023 年加息週期的所有負面影響。</p>
</div><p>Below is a chart of the federal funds rate with recessionary periods highlighted in grey. It clearly illustrates how often periods of high rates precede an economic downturn:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是聯邦基金利率的圖表，衰退期以灰色突出顯示。它清楚地説明了高利率時期如何經常在經濟衰退之前出現：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9e5f0c8b1c1d86561ecad7759e076d5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9e5f0c8b1c1d86561ecad7759e076d5.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>That said, if the U.S. does experience a recession that leads to a drop in the stock market, that would almost certainly be a buying opportunity. History shows the S&amp;P 500 has always gone on to reach highs over the long term, so investors shouldn't be deterred by periods of short-term weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，如果美國確實經歷了一場導致股市下跌的經濟衰退，那幾乎肯定會是一個買入機會。歷史表明，標準普爾 500 指數在長期內總是會達到新高，因此投資者不應因短期疲軟而退縮。</p>
</div>

Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates Next Week? Here's What Wall Street Thinks.

- 美聯儲的主要目標是維持約 2% 的通脹率和充分就業。  
- 由於通脹上升，美聯儲在 2022 年至 2023 年間將聯邦基金利率提高至 5.33%。  
- 預計美聯儲將在 12 月再次降息，華爾街對此持樂觀態度。  

美聯儲下週會降息嗎？以下是華爾街的觀點