<p>以 15% 的前瞻收益率來看，<strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC 0.42%）常常引起以收入為導向的投資者的關注，他們希望通過分紅來補充收入，這並不令人驚訝。更好的是，這家房地產投資信託基金（REIT）每月支付一次股息，為投資者提供穩定的月度收入。自 2020 年 4 月以來，它一直支付相同的每月 0.12 美元的股息。</p>
<p>儘管如此，這隻股票在過去幾年中表現不佳，過去五年價格下跌約 44%。考慮到股票的股息，其在此期間的總回報約為 3%。儘管股息一直在支付，但自 2020 年 4 月以來並沒有變化。雖然仍然實現了正回報，但考慮到這一時期市場的強勁表現，這並不是一個理想的回報。</p>
<p>儘管如此，未來 REIT 應該會迎來更好的日子。</p>
<h2>什麼是抵押貸款 REIT，它們為何會面臨困境？</h2>
<p>在考慮投資 AGNC 之前，投資者首先需要了解該公司的具體業務。誠然，這有點複雜，但讓我們儘量簡單明瞭地解釋一下，同時説明為什麼抵押貸款 REIT 在過去幾年中面臨困境。</p>
<p>AGNC 是一家抵押貸款 REIT，投資於由政府或政府贊助機構（如 <strong>房利美</strong>、<strong>房地美</strong> 和 <strong>吉尼梅</strong>）支持的抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）。簡單來説，它擁有一組抵押貸款。由於這些抵押貸款基本上是由政府支持的，因此沒有違約風險。</p>
<p>AGNC 通過使用短期融資（通常以回購協議的形式）來賺錢，然後購買長期 MBS。它通過融資成本與 MBS 投資產生的收入之間的利差來獲利。這部分收入隨後用於支付股息。</p>
<p>短期融資利率可能會波動，因此抵押貸款 REIT 也會對這些利率進行對沖，以更好地匹配其投資組合中 MBS 的期限。這是通過廣泛使用的對沖策略實現的，例如使用利率互換。</p>
<p>在最近幾年，對沖對抵押貸款 REIT 尤其重要，因為出現了歷史上持續時間較長的倒掛收益率曲線，直到今年早些時候才剛剛恢復正常。倒掛收益率曲線是指短期利率高於長期利率。</p>
<p>儘管 AGNC 的融資費用在過去一年中有所上升，但它仍然能夠保持健康的淨利差，即其融資成本與 MBS 投資組合收益之間的差額。上個季度，對沖使其融資成本降低了 2.9%。如果沒有對沖，其投資組合的收益將低於其融資成本。</p>
<p>儘管抵押貸款在今年面臨淨利差收窄的壓力，但它們在過去幾年中面臨的最大問題是 MBS 價值的下降。隨着利率上升，MBS 與國債之間的利差擴大，MBS 的當前賬面價值下降。</p>
<p>原因很簡單。如果你投資於固定收益證券，如國債或 MBS，收益率為 4%，而當前類似新發行證券的利率為 7%，你將無法以面值出售你擁有的證券，然後再購買收益率更高的新證券。相反，你必須以折扣價出售你擁有的證券，以使其收益率與新發行的證券相匹配。</p>
<p>因此，隨着新 MBS 開始具有更高的票息，舊發行的低票息 MBS 的價值下降。這在抵押貸款 REIT 的有形賬面價值（TBV）中體現出來，代表其投資組合的當前價值。在 2021 年底到 2023 年底之間，AGNC 的每股 TBV 下降了 45%，從每股 15.75 美元降至每股 8.70 美元。在上個季度末（2024 年第三季度），其 TBV 為 8.82 美元，因此在 2024 年已經穩定。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2ODEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NDc4MDEwMS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2ODEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NDc4MDEwMS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>為什麼 AGNC 在未來表現會更好</h2>
<p>AGNC 股價的下跌與其 TBV 的下降直接相關，這一下降是由於利率上升和 MBS 與國債之間的利差擴大所導致的。目前，有良好的跡象表明利率將下降，而利差至少將保持穩定。</p>
<p>在利率方面，美聯儲今年已經兩次降息，9 月份降息 50 個基點，10 月份再降 25 個基點。同時，美聯儲官員普遍預計未來兩年利率將繼續下降。</p>
<p>與此同時，抵押貸款利率與國債之間的利差目前約為 2.5%，這是歷史高位。利差的擴大主要是因為美聯儲在疫情期間的量化寬鬆結束後停止購買 MBS，並讓其 MBS 到期後用國債替代。同時，許多銀行和其他金融機構也減少了對 MBS 的購買，但有跡象表明，隨着利率下調、收益率曲線不再倒掛以及市場波動性降低，這些機構可能會重新迴歸。隨着利率的下降，這些機構應該開始關注收益率更高的工具，如 MBS。</p>
<p>如果利差收窄，AGNC 將成為主要受益者，因為這將提升其 TBV，但即使它們保持在當前水平（其管理層對此持樂觀態度），對於 REIT 來説，這也應該是一個非常好的投資環境，相較於過去幾年。同時，隨着美聯儲降低短期利率，未來幾年其融資成本也應該開始降低。長期高利率與短期低利率為抵押貸款 REIT 創造了良好的投資環境。</p>
<p>因此，考慮到 15% 的收益率和更好的投資環境，AGNC 看起來是一個值得購買的穩健選擇，其股價低於 10 美元。它應該能夠提供穩定的股息收入，並有潛力實現適度的股價升值。</p>

美國資本代理公司

<p>AGNC Investment 是一家抵押貸款房地產投資信託，提供 15% 的前瞻性收益率，並每月支付股息，但其股票在過去五年中下跌了 44%。儘管自 2020 年 4 月以來維持了穩定的股息，但總回報仍然温和。該公司投資於政府支持的抵押貸款證券，並因利率上升和淨利差縮小而面臨挑戰。然而，隨着近期美聯儲降息和對更低利率的預期，AGNC 可能會在未來看到業績改善</p>

<p>With a forward yield of 15%, it's no surprise that <strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC 0.42%) often finds itself on the radar of income-oriented investors who are looking to supplement their income with dividends. Even better, the real estate investment trust (REIT) pays out a monthly dividend, giving investors a steady monthly payment each month. It has paid out the same $0.12 monthly dividend since April 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 15% 的前瞻收益率來看，<strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC 0.42%）常常引起以收入為導向的投資者的關注，他們希望通過分紅來補充收入，這並不令人驚訝。更好的是，這家房地產投資信託基金（REIT）每月支付一次股息，為投資者提供穩定的月度收入。自 2020 年 4 月以來，它一直支付相同的每月 0.12 美元的股息。</p>
</div><p>That said, the stock has struggled the past several years, with its price down about 44% over the past five years. When taking into account the stock's dividends, its total return over that period is about 3%. And while the dividend has been paid, it hasn't changed since April 2020. While it still managed a positive return, that's not a great return given the strength of the market over this period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，這隻股票在過去幾年中表現不佳，過去五年價格下跌約 44%。考慮到股票的股息，其在此期間的總回報約為 3%。儘管股息一直在支付，但自 2020 年 4 月以來並沒有變化。雖然仍然實現了正回報，但考慮到這一時期市場的強勁表現，這並不是一個理想的回報。</p>
</div><p>That said, better days should be ahead for the REIT moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，未來 REIT 應該會迎來更好的日子。</p>
</div><h2>What is a mortgage REIT, and why have they struggled?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什麼是抵押貸款 REIT，它們為何會面臨困境？</h2>
</div><p>Before considering an investment in AGNC, investors first need to understand exactly what the company does. Admittedly, it's a bit complicated, but let's try to break it down as simply as possible, as well as explain why mortgage REITs have struggled the past few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考慮投資 AGNC 之前，投資者首先需要了解該公司的具體業務。誠然，這有點複雜，但讓我們儘量簡單明瞭地解釋一下，同時説明為什麼抵押貸款 REIT 在過去幾年中面臨困境。</p>
</div><p>AGNC is a mortgage REIT that invests in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that are backed by government or government-sponsored agencies, such as <strong>Fannie Mae</strong>, <strong>Freddie Mac</strong>, and <strong>Ginnie Mae</strong>. More simply, it owns a portfolio of mortgages. Since these mortgages are essentially backed by the government, they carry no default risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 是一家抵押貸款 REIT，投資於由政府或政府贊助機構（如 <strong>房利美</strong>、<strong>房地美</strong> 和 <strong>吉尼梅</strong>）支持的抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）。簡單來説，它擁有一組抵押貸款。由於這些抵押貸款基本上是由政府支持的，因此沒有違約風險。</p>
</div><p>AGNC makes money by using short-term financing, usually in the form of repurchase agreements, and then it buys longer-dated MBS. It then makes money through the difference in the interest rate spread between its financing costs and the income its MBS investments generate. This income is then used to pay its dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 通過使用短期融資（通常以回購協議的形式）來賺錢，然後購買長期 MBS。它通過融資成本與 MBS 投資產生的收入之間的利差來獲利。這部分收入隨後用於支付股息。</p>
</div><p>Short-term financing rates can fluctuate, so mortgage REITs also hedge out these rates to better match the duration of the MBS in their portfolios. This is done through widely used hedging strategies, such as using interest rate swaps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期融資利率可能會波動，因此抵押貸款 REIT 也會對這些利率進行對沖，以更好地匹配其投資組合中 MBS 的期限。這是通過廣泛使用的對沖策略實現的，例如使用利率互換。</p>
</div><p>Hedging has been particularly important for mortgage REITs in recent years, as there has been a historically long inverted yield curve, which only just recently returned to normal earlier this year. An inverted yield curve is when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近幾年，對沖對抵押貸款 REIT 尤其重要，因為出現了歷史上持續時間較長的倒掛收益率曲線，直到今年早些時候才剛剛恢復正常。倒掛收益率曲線是指短期利率高於長期利率。</p>
</div><p>While AGNC's funding expenses have risen over the past year, it still has been able to maintain a healthy net interest spread, which is the difference between its funding costs and the yield of its MBS portfolio. Hedging was able to reduce its funding costs by 2.9% last quarter. If not for hedging, the yield of its portfolio would have been less than its funding costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 AGNC 的融資費用在過去一年中有所上升，但它仍然能夠保持健康的淨利差，即其融資成本與 MBS 投資組合收益之間的差額。上個季度，對沖使其融資成本降低了 2.9%。如果沒有對沖，其投資組合的收益將低於其融資成本。</p>
</div><p>While mortgages have faced some pressure with narrowing net interest spreads this year, the biggest issue they have faced over the past few years has been the decline in the value of MBS. As interest rates have risen and spreads between MBS and Treasury bonds have widened, the current carrying values of MBS have fallen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管抵押貸款在今年面臨淨利差收窄的壓力，但它們在過去幾年中面臨的最大問題是 MBS 價值的下降。隨着利率上升，MBS 與國債之間的利差擴大，MBS 的當前賬面價值下降。</p>
</div><p>The reason for this is quite simple. If you invested in a fixed-income security, like a Treasury bond or MBS, with a 4% yield, and current rates for similar newly issued securities were now 7%, you would not be able to sell the security you have at face value and turn around and buy the new security with the higher yield. Instead, you would have to sell the security you own at a discount so it would closely match the yield of the newly issued security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原因很簡單。如果你投資於固定收益證券，如國債或 MBS，收益率為 4%，而當前類似新發行證券的利率為 7%，你將無法以面值出售你擁有的證券，然後再購買收益率更高的新證券。相反，你必須以折扣價出售你擁有的證券，以使其收益率與新發行的證券相匹配。</p>
</div><p>As such, as new MBS started to have higher coupons, the value of older issued MBS with lower coupon rates fell. This shows up in a mortgage REIT's tangible book value (TBV), which represents the current value of its portfolio. Between the end of 2021 and the end of 2023, AGNC saw its TBV per share sink 45%, going from $15.75 per share down to $8.70 per share. At the end of last quarter (Q3 2024), it was at $8.82, so it has stabilized in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，隨着新 MBS 開始具有更高的票息，舊發行的低票息 MBS 的價值下降。這在抵押貸款 REIT 的有形賬面價值（TBV）中體現出來，代表其投資組合的當前價值。在 2021 年底到 2023 年底之間，AGNC 的每股 TBV 下降了 45%，從每股 15.75 美元降至每股 8.70 美元。在上個季度末（2024 年第三季度），其 TBV 為 8.82 美元，因此在 2024 年已經穩定。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2ODEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NDc4MDEwMS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F800681%2Fgettyimages-1474780101.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why AGNC should perform better moving forward</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼 AGNC 在未來表現會更好</h2>
</div><p>The decline in AGNC shares is directly correlated to the drop in its TBV, which was spurred both by higher rates and the widening of the spread between MBS and Treasuries. Currently, there is a good indication that rates will fall while spreads should at least remain stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 股價的下跌與其 TBV 的下降直接相關，這一下降是由於利率上升和 MBS 與國債之間的利差擴大所導致的。目前，有良好的跡象表明利率將下降，而利差至少將保持穩定。</p>
</div><p>On the interest rate front, the Fed has already cut rates twice this year, lowering rates by 50 basis points in September and another 25 basis points in October. Meanwhile, Fed officials are generally expecting rates to continue to head lower over the next two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在利率方面，美聯儲今年已經兩次降息，9 月份降息 50 個基點，10 月份再降 25 個基點。同時，美聯儲官員普遍預計未來兩年利率將繼續下降。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the spread between mortgage rates and Treasuries currently sits around 2.5%, which is historically high. The spread has widened largely because the Fed stopped buying MBS after its period of quantitive easing during the pandemic and then let its MBS run off and replaced them with Treasury bills. At the same time, many banks and other financial institutions also backed away from buying MBS, but there are signs they could return with rates set to move lower, the yield curve no longer inverted, and lower volatility in the market. As rates head lower, these institutions should begin to look toward higher-yielding instruments such as MBS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，抵押貸款利率與國債之間的利差目前約為 2.5%，這是歷史高位。利差的擴大主要是因為美聯儲在疫情期間的量化寬鬆結束後停止購買 MBS，並讓其 MBS 到期後用國債替代。同時，許多銀行和其他金融機構也減少了對 MBS 的購買，但有跡象表明，隨着利率下調、收益率曲線不再倒掛以及市場波動性降低，這些機構可能會重新迴歸。隨着利率的下降，這些機構應該開始關注收益率更高的工具，如 MBS。</p>
</div><p>If the spreads narrow, AGNC will be a big beneficiary as it boosts its TBV, but even if they just remain around current levels, which its management is expecting, it should be a very good investment environment for the REIT compared to the last few years. At the same time, with the Fed lowering short-term rates, it should begin to lower its funding costs over the next few years. High long-term rates with low short-term rates create a good investment environment for mortgage REITs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果利差收窄，AGNC 將成為主要受益者，因為這將提升其 TBV，但即使它們保持在當前水平（其管理層對此持樂觀態度），對於 REIT 來説，這也應該是一個非常好的投資環境，相較於過去幾年。同時，隨着美聯儲降低短期利率，未來幾年其融資成本也應該開始降低。長期高利率與短期低利率為抵押貸款 REIT 創造了良好的投資環境。</p>
</div><p>As such, with a 15% yield and a much better investment environment, AGNC looks like a solid option to buy with its stock under $10. It should provide solid dividend income with the potential for moderate stock price appreciation moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，考慮到 15% 的收益率和更好的投資環境，AGNC 看起來是一個值得購買的穩健選擇，其股價低於 10 美元。它應該能夠提供穩定的股息收入，並有潛力實現適度的股價升值。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy AGNC Investment While It's Below $10?

- AGNC Investment 的前瞻收益率為 15%，吸引了收入導向型投資者。  
- 該房地產投資信託自 2020 年 4 月以來每月支付相同的股息，股價過去五年下跌約 44%。  
- 隨着利率下降和利差穩定，AGNC 未來有望改善投資環境。

你是否應該在 AGNC Investment 股價低於 10 美元時購買？