<p>2024 年波動性較大的股票之一是 <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>（RIVN 5.90%）。這家電動車製造商在今年經歷了多次起伏，儘管過去幾個月股票表現良好，但截至目前，股票仍然下跌約 35%。</p>
<p>現在的問題是，進入 2025 年，這隻股票是買入、賣出還是持有。讓我們看看每個論點，以幫助做出決定。</p>
<h2>賣出理由</h2>
<p>Rivian 的賣出理由主要歸結為兩個主要問題：電動車行業銷售放緩和其低迷的毛利率。</p>
<p>北美的電動車銷售仍在增長，但增長速度已經放緩。與此同時，混合動力車（HEV）的銷售增長繼續超過純電動汽車（BEV）的增長。11 月份，美國 HEV 銷售同比增長 41%，而 BEV 銷售增長 15.2%。相比之下，2023 年美國的總電動車銷售（包括 HEV、BEV 和插電式混合動力車）增長了 52%。</p>
<p>11 月份銷售的增長恰逢當選總統唐納德·特朗普談論取消聯邦電動車税收優惠。這可能導致 BEV 銷售激增，因為猶豫不決的消費者在優惠可能消失之前進行購買。然而，這將是需求的提前釋放，可能會對 2025 年的銷售產生負面影響。同時，取消 7500 美元的電動車税收抵免也可能會影響未來的銷售。</p>
<p>與此同時，車輛擁有者目前似乎更傾向於混合動力車，因為它們提供了更大的靈活性。非常昂貴的電池的使用壽命、轉售價值、充電時間、充電基礎設施的缺乏以及續航里程等問題使一些駕駛者不願意轉向 BEV。與此同時，<strong>豐田</strong> 和 <strong>本田</strong> 目前也更傾向於混合動力車而非 BEV。</p>
<p>對 Rivian 的另一個看空理由是其毛利率一直為負。這意味着它銷售的車輛價格低於製造成本，不考慮市場營銷和企業成本。這顯然不是一個可持續的商業模式。公司正在努力改善其毛利率，但不僅需要找到實現正毛利率的途徑，還需要最終實現正自由現金流和盈利。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDEzMjAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0ODM0OTI0My5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDEzMjAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0ODM0OTI0My5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>買入理由</h2>
<p>雖然 Rivian 目前正在消耗現金，以改善其毛利率並擴大業務，但公司已經能夠形成重要的合作伙伴關係。這包括與 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 的合作，為其製造電動車送貨車。亞馬遜是公司最大的股東之一。</p>
<p>與此同時，它最近與 <strong>大眾汽車</strong> 達成了一項合資協議，大眾汽車將向公司投資高達 58 億美元。大眾汽車對 Rivian 的主要吸引力在於獲得其新的區域架構，這預計將通過減少車輛中的電子控制單元（ECU）和佈線數量顯著降低製造成本。Rivian 還降低了進入車輛的其他材料成本，並提高了其製造設施的生產線速度。它預計這些變化將幫助它在第四季度獲得適度的正毛利率。</p>
<p>來自大眾汽車的現金流入，其中一部分將在達到某些里程碑後到來，將幫助 Rivian 加快新款低成本 R2 車型的生產，該車型計劃於 2026 年推出。雖然 Rivian 在銷售豪華 SUV 方面表現良好，但它希望更實惠的 R2 能夠吸引更廣泛的受眾，預計起售價為 45,000 美元。銷售更多汽車將帶來更大的規模，從而利用固定成本，最終實現盈利。</p>
<p>Rivian 仍然是一家早期階段的公司，公司的最大機會將在於未來幾年轉型為一家盈利的電動車製造商。雖然這不是一項容易的任務，但得到亞馬遜和大眾汽車的支持為其提供了較長的跑道和成功的良好機會。</p>
<h2>持有理由</h2>
<p>作為一家毛利率為負且正在消耗現金的早期階段公司，Rivian 是一項投機性投資。然而，亞馬遜和大眾汽車的支持，加上其區域架構，給它提供了成功的堅實機會。這可能使得持有少量該股票的倉位變得值得。</p>
<h2>結論</h2>
<p>對於那些能夠承受一定（好吧，實際上是很多）波動的風險承受能力強的投資者，我認為 Rivian 是一隻可以小規模持有的股票，投資者可以在接下來的幾年中持有，看看其故事如何發展。其技術吸引了大眾汽車的大額投資，同時在未來幾年與亞馬遜也有相當大的機會。然而，這隻股票並不適合心臟脆弱的人。</p>

RIVN

<p>Rivian Automotive (RIVN) 在 2024 年經歷了顯著的波動，目前年初至今下跌了 35%。賣出觀點強調電動車銷售放緩和負毛利率，而買入觀點則指出與亞馬遜和大眾汽車的合作，這可能提高生產效率和盈利能力。Rivian 計劃在 2026 年推出一款更低成本的 R2 車型。持有觀點認為，儘管公司具有投機性，但其背後的支持和技術可能值得進行小額投資。總體而言，Rivian 為尋求長期增長的風險承受能力較強的投資者提供了潛在機會</p>

<p>One of the more volatile stocks of 2024 has been <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 5.90%). The electric vehicle (EV) maker has had a number of ups and downs this year, and while the stock has performed well the past couple of months, the stock is still down about 35% year to date, as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年波動性較大的股票之一是 <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>（RIVN 5.90%）。這家電動車製造商在今年經歷了多次起伏，儘管過去幾個月股票表現良好，但截至目前，股票仍然下跌約 35%。</p>
</div><p>The question now, though, is whether the stock is a buy, sell, or hold going into 2025. Let's look at each argument to help decide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在的問題是，進入 2025 年，這隻股票是買入、賣出還是持有。讓我們看看每個論點，以幫助做出決定。</p>
</div><h2>The sell case</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>賣出理由</h2>
</div><p>The sell case for Rivian largely comes down to two main issues: slowing EV industry sales and its weak gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 的賣出理由主要歸結為兩個主要問題：電動車行業銷售放緩和其低迷的毛利率。</p>
</div><p>EV sales are still growing in North America, but growth has decelerated. Meanwhile, the sale growth of hybrids (HEVs) continues to outpace the growth of pure battery electric (BEV) vehicles. In November, U.S. HEV sales climbed 41% year over year, while BEV sales were up 15.2%. By comparison, total EV sales (which include HEVs, BEVs, and plug-in hybrids) grew by 52% in the U.S. in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北美的電動車銷售仍在增長，但增長速度已經放緩。與此同時，混合動力車（HEV）的銷售增長繼續超過純電動汽車（BEV）的增長。11 月份，美國 HEV 銷售同比增長 41%，而 BEV 銷售增長 15.2%。相比之下，2023 年美國的總電動車銷售（包括 HEV、BEV 和插電式混合動力車）增長了 52%。</p>
</div><p>The climb in November sales, meanwhile, comes at a time when President-elect Donald Trump has talked about eliminating federal EV tax incentives. This presumably could have led to a jump in BEV sales, as consumers on the fence make their purchases before the incentives may go away. However, this would be a pull-forward in demand and could then negatively impact 2025 sales. Meanwhile, the elimination of a $7,500 tax credit for EVs could also hurt sales moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月份銷售的增長恰逢當選總統唐納德·特朗普談論取消聯邦電動車税收優惠。這可能導致 BEV 銷售激增，因為猶豫不決的消費者在優惠可能消失之前進行購買。然而，這將是需求的提前釋放，可能會對 2025 年的銷售產生負面影響。同時，取消 7500 美元的電動車税收抵免也可能會影響未來的銷售。</p>
</div><p>Vehicle owners, meanwhile, currently appear to be more drawn to hybrids given the increased versatility they offer. The life expectancy of very expensive batteries, resale values, charging times, lack of charging infrastructure, and driving ranges are all issues that keep some drivers from switching to BEVs. Both <strong>Toyota</strong> and <strong>Honda</strong>, meanwhile, are currently leaning into hybrids over BEVs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，車輛擁有者目前似乎更傾向於混合動力車，因為它們提供了更大的靈活性。非常昂貴的電池的使用壽命、轉售價值、充電時間、充電基礎設施的缺乏以及續航里程等問題使一些駕駛者不願意轉向 BEV。與此同時，<strong>豐田</strong> 和 <strong>本田</strong> 目前也更傾向於混合動力車而非 BEV。</p>
</div><p>The other bear case against Rivian comes down to its gross margin, which has been negative. This means that it is selling its vehicles for less than the cost to make them, not taking into account marketing and corporate costs. That's obviously not a sustainable business model. The company is working to improve its gross margin, but it will not only need to find a path to a positive gross margin, but also eventually positive free cash flow and profitability as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對 Rivian 的另一個看空理由是其毛利率一直為負。這意味着它銷售的車輛價格低於製造成本，不考慮市場營銷和企業成本。這顯然不是一個可持續的商業模式。公司正在努力改善其毛利率，但不僅需要找到實現正毛利率的途徑，還需要最終實現正自由現金流和盈利。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDEzMjAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0ODM0OTI0My5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801320%2Fgettyimages-1348349243.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The buy case</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>買入理由</h2>
</div><p>While Rivian is currently burning through cash as it looks to improve its gross margin and scale its business, the company has been able to form important partnerships. This includes one with <strong>Amazon</strong>, for whom it makes EV delivery vans. Amazon is one of the company's largest shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然 Rivian 目前正在消耗現金，以改善其毛利率並擴大業務，但公司已經能夠形成重要的合作伙伴關係。這包括與 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 的合作，為其製造電動車送貨車。亞馬遜是公司最大的股東之一。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, it recently entered into a joint venture with <strong>Volkswagen</strong>, which will invest up to $5.8 billion in the company. The big attraction to Volkswagen is gaining access to Rivian's new zonal architecture, which is expected to help significantly lower the costs of making its vehicles by reducing the number of electronic control units (ECUs) and wiring in its vehicles. Rivian has also lowered other material costs going into the vehicles and improved the line-rates of its manufacturing facility. It expects these changes to help it obtain a modest positive gross margin in Q4.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，它最近與 <strong>大眾汽車</strong> 達成了一項合資協議，大眾汽車將向公司投資高達 58 億美元。大眾汽車對 Rivian 的主要吸引力在於獲得其新的區域架構，這預計將通過減少車輛中的電子控制單元（ECU）和佈線數量顯著降低製造成本。Rivian 還降低了進入車輛的其他材料成本，並提高了其製造設施的生產線速度。它預計這些變化將幫助它在第四季度獲得適度的正毛利率。</p>
</div><p>The cash influx from Volkswagen, with some coming later after certain milestones are met, will help Rivian ramp up the production of its new, lower-cost R2 model, which it plans to introduce in 2026. While Rivian has done well selling its luxury SUVs, it is looking for the more affordable R2 to appeal to a wider audience given its expected starting price of $45,000. Selling more cars leads to more scale, which leads to leveraging fixed costs, which eventually leads to profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來自大眾汽車的現金流入，其中一部分將在達到某些里程碑後到來，將幫助 Rivian 加快新款低成本 R2 車型的生產，該車型計劃於 2026 年推出。雖然 Rivian 在銷售豪華 SUV 方面表現良好，但它希望更實惠的 R2 能夠吸引更廣泛的受眾，預計起售價為 45,000 美元。銷售更多汽車將帶來更大的規模，從而利用固定成本，最終實現盈利。</p>
</div><p>Rivian is still an early-stage company and the biggest opportunity for the company will be transitioning to become a profitable EV maker in the years ahead. While that will not be an easy task, being backed by Amazon and Volkswagen give it a long runway and a good chance to eventually succeed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 仍然是一家早期階段的公司，公司的最大機會將在於未來幾年轉型為一家盈利的電動車製造商。雖然這不是一項容易的任務，但得到亞馬遜和大眾汽車的支持為其提供了較長的跑道和成功的良好機會。</p>
</div><h2>The hold case</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>持有理由</h2>
</div><p>As an early-stage company with a negative gross margin that is burning cash, Rivian is a speculative investment. However, the backing of Amazon and Volkswagen, together with its zonal architecture, gives it a solid chance to succeed. This could make it worth holding a small position in the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為一家毛利率為負且正在消耗現金的早期階段公司，Rivian 是一項投機性投資。然而，亞馬遜和大眾汽車的支持，加上其區域架構，給它提供了成功的堅實機會。這可能使得持有少量該股票的倉位變得值得。</p>
</div><h2>The verdict</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>結論</h2>
</div><p>For risk-tolerant investors who don't mind a little (OK, actually a lot of) volatility, I think Rivian is a stock investors can take a small position and hold onto for the next few years to see how its story plays out. Its technology has drawn in a large investment from Volkswagen, while it also has a pretty big opportunity with Amazon in the years ahead. However, the stock is not for the faint of heart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於那些能夠承受一定（好吧，實際上是很多）波動的風險承受能力強的投資者，我認為 Rivian 是一隻可以小規模持有的股票，投資者可以在接下來的幾年中持有，看看其故事如何發展。其技術吸引了大眾汽車的大額投資，同時在未來幾年與亞馬遜也有相當大的機會。然而，這隻股票並不適合心臟脆弱的人。</p>
</div>

Rivian: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

- Rivian Automotive 股票在 2024 年波動較大，年初至今下跌約 35%。
- 銷售放緩和負毛利率是賣出理由，混合動力車銷售增長快於純電動車。
- 與亞馬遜和大眾的合作為 Rivian 提供了資金支持，未來有望實現盈利。

Rivian：是買入、賣出還是持有？